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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Spatial-Temporal Variational Quantum Circuit to Enable Deep Learning on NISQ Devices

Quantum computing presents a promising approach for machine learning with its capability for extremely parallel computation in high-dimension through superposition and entanglement. Despite its potential, existing quantum learning algorithms, such as Variational Quantum Circuits (VQCs), face challenges in handling more complex datasets, particularly those that are not linearly separable. What’s more, it encounters the deployability issue, making the learning models suffer a drastic accuracy drop after deploying them to the actual quantum devices. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a novel spatial-temporal design, namely “ST-VQC”, to integrate nonlinearity in quantum learning and improve the robustness of the learning model to noise. Specifically, ST-VQC can extract spatial features via a novel block-based encoding quantum sub-circuit coupled with a layer-wise computation quantum sub-circuit to enable temporal-wise deep learning. Additionally, a SWAP-Free physical circuit design is devised to improve robustness. These designs bring a number of hyperparameters. After a systematic analysis of the design space for each design component, an automated optimization framework is proposed to generate the ST-VQC quantum circuit. The proposed ST-VQC has been evaluated on two IBM quantum processors, ibm-cairo with 27 qubits and ibmq-lima with 7 qubits to assess its effectiveness. The results of the evaluation on the standard dataset for binary classification show that ST-VQC can achieve over 30% accuracy improvement compared with existing VQCs on actual quantum computers. Moreover, on a non-linear synthetic dataset, the STVQC outperforms a linear classifier by 27.9%, while the linear classifier using classical computing outperforms the existing VQC by 15.58%.

Li, Jinyang↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scenario adaptive disruption prediction study for next generation burning-plasma tokamaks

Next generation High Performance (HP) tokamaks risk damage from unmitigated disruptions at high current and power. Achieving reliable disruption prediction for a device's HP operation based on its Low Performance (LP) data is a key to its success. In this letter, through explorative data analysis and dedicated numerical experiments on multiple existing tokamaks, we demonstrate how the operational regimes of tokamaks can affect the power of a trained disruption predictor. First, our results suggest data-driven disruption predictors trained on abundant LP discharges work poorly on the HP regime of the same tokamak, which is a consequence of the distinct distributions of the tightly correlated signals related to disruptions in these two regimes. Second, we find that matching operational parameters among tokamaks strongly improves cross-machine accuracy which implies our model learns from the underlying scalings of dimensionless physics parameters like q 95 , β p and confirms the importance of these parameters in disruption physics and cross machine domain matching from the data-driven perspective. Finally, our results show in the absence of HP data from the target devices, the best predictivity of the HP regime for the target machine can be achieved by combining LP data from the target with HP data from other machines. Furthermore, these results provide a possible disruption predictor development strategy for next generation tokamaks, such as ITER and SPARC, and highlight the importance of developing baseline scenario discharges of future tokamaks on existing machines to collect more relevant disruptive data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning energy-based representations of quantum many-body states

Efficient representation of quantum many-body states on classical computers is a problem of practical importance. An ideal representation of a quantum state combines a succinct characterization informed by the structure and symmetries of the system along with the ability to predict the physical observables of interest. Several machine-learning approaches have been recently used to construct such classical representations, which enable predictions of observables and account for physical symmetries. However, the structure of a quantum state typically gets lost unless a specialized is employed based on prior knowledge of the system. Moreover, most such approaches give no information about what states are easier to learn in comparison with others. Here, we propose a generative energy-based representation of quantum many-body states derived from Gibbs distributions used for modeling the thermal states of classical spin systems. Based on the prior information on a family of quantum states, the energy function can be specified by a small number of parameters using an explicit low-degree polynomial or a generic parametric family such as neural nets and can naturally include the known symmetries of the system. Our results show that such a representation can be efficiently learned from data using exact algorithms in a form that enables the prediction of expectation values of physical observables. Importantly, the structure of the learned energy function provides a natural explanation for the difficulty of learning an energy-based representation of a given class of quantum states when measured in a certain basis. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning of hidden variables in multiscale fluid simulation

Solving fluid dynamics equations often requires the use of closure relations that account for missing microphysics. For example, when solving equations related to fluid dynamics for systems with a large Reynolds number, sub-grid effects become important and a turbulence closure is required, and in systems with a large Knudsen number, kinetic effects become important and a kinetic closure is required. By adding an equation governing the growth and transport of the quantity requiring the closure relation, it becomes possible to capture microphysics through the introduction of ‘hidden variables’ that are non-local in space and time. The behavior of the ‘hidden variables’ in response to the fluid conditions can be learned from a higher fidelity or ab-initio model that contains all the microphysics. In our study, a partial differential equation simulator that is end-to-end differentiable is used to train judiciously placed neural networks against ground-truth simulations. We show that this method enables an Euler equation based approach to reproduce non-linear, large Knudsen number plasma physics that can otherwise only be modeled using Boltzmann-like equation simulators such as Vlasov or particle-in-cell modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

LANL Activities on Mechanistic Approach to Analyzing and Improving Unconventional Hydrocarbon Production

Hydrocarbon production from shale reservoirs is inherently inefficient and challenging since these are low permeability plays. In addition, there is a limited understanding of the fundamentals and the controlling mechanisms, further complicating how to optimize these plays. Herein, we summarize our experimental and computational efforts fully and partially supported by the fundamental shale portfolio to reveal unconventional shale fundamentals and devise development strategies to enhance extraction efficiency with a minimal environmental footprint. Integrating these fundamentals with machine learning, we outline a pathway to improve the predictive power of our models, which enhances the forecast quality of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. For instance, we have developed science informed workflows and platforms for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which allow operators to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. Recently, our work relies on the hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (combined with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. Consequently, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operating a commercial building HVAC load as a virtual battery through airflow control

Virtual battery (VB) is an innovative method to model flexibility of building loads and effectively coordinate them with other resources at a system level. Unlike a real battery with a dedicated power conversion system for charging control, methods are required for operating building loads to deviate from the baseline to respond to grid signals. This paper presents a VB control for a commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to follow the desired power consumption in real-time by adjusting zonal airflow rates. The proposed method consists of two parts. At the system level, a mixed feedforward and feedback control is used to estimate the desired total airflow rate. At the zone level, two priority-based algorithms are then proposed to distribute the total airflow rate to individual zones. In particular, a zonal airflow limit estimation method is proposed using machine-learning techniques, in contrast to physics-based thermal models in existing studies, to more accurately capture zonal thermal dynamics and improve temperature control performance. An office building on the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory campus is implemented in EnergyPlus, and used to illustrate and validate the proposed control.

Wang, Jiyu↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Deep State Space Model for Rainfall‐Runoff Simulations

The classical way of studying the rainfall‐runoff processes in the water cycle relies on conceptual or physically‐based hydrologic models. Deep learning (DL) has recently emerged as an alternative and blossomed in the hydrology community for rainfall‐runoff simulations. However, the decades‐old Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) network remains the benchmark for this task, outperforming newer architectures like Transformers. In this work, we propose a State Space Model (SSM), specifically the Frequency Tuned Diagonal State Space Sequence (S4D‐FT) model, for rainfall‐runoff simulations. The proposed S4D‐FT is benchmarked against the established LSTM and a physically‐based Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model under in‐sample and out‐of‐sample simulation setups across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Results show that S4D‐FT is able to outperform the LSTM model across diverse regions under both simulation setups, especially for regions that feature snowmelt‐driven or intermittent flow regimes. In contrast, S4D‐FT tends to underperform in flashier, high‐magnitude flow regimes, likely due to its global state‐space convolution computation that emphasizes slow, storage‐driven dynamics, which makes it less effective at picking up short bursts and noisy spikes in the data. In summary, our pioneering introduction of the S4D‐FT for rainfall‐runoff simulations challenges the dominance of LSTM in the hydrology community and expands the arsenal of DL tools available for hydrological modeling.

Wang, Yihan [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber-Attack Detection and Accommodation for the Energy Delivery System

The goals of this project were to create a software system with a suite of key algorithms for cyber-attack detection and accommodation providing domain layer protection for critical power generation assets. Example assets included gas and steam turbines, heat recovery steam generators, and electrical generators. The aggressive algorithm goals were aimed at reducing the false positive rates in threat detection to <1% using learnings from many evolving disciplines (power turbine and generator physics, power system modeling, modern control theory, system identification, machine learning, deep learning, mathematics and data science). Additional goals for the algorithms involved localizing threats on-the-fly to know in which monitoring node the effects of attacks are present, and then providing accommodation to keep the system running uninterrupted much of the time in the presence of the attack. Accommodation had a performance goal of providing resiliency when up to 50% of monitoring nodes are in an attack state.

cybersecurity, cyber-physical↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning and LHC event generation

First-principle simulations are at the heart of the high-energy physics research program. They link the vast data output of multi-purpose detectors with fundamental theory predictions and interpretation. This review illustrates a wide range of applications of modern machine learning to event generation and simulation-based inference, including conceptional developments driven by the specific requirements of particle physics. New ideas and tools developed at the interface of particle physics and machine learning will improve the speed and precision of forward simulations, handle the complexity of collision data, and enhance inference as an inverse simulation problem.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Technologies Achieving Risk-Informed Condition-Based Predictive Maintenance Enhancing the Economic Performance of Operating Nuclear Power Plants

The primary objective of the research presented in this report is to develop scalable technologies that are deployable across plant assets and across the nuclear fleet to achieve risk-informed predictive maintenance (PdM) strategies at commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Over the years, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance (PM) programs, driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high capacity factors. A well-constructed risk-informed PdM approach for an identified plant asset has been developed in this research, taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), physics-informed modeling, and visualization. These technologies would allow commercial NPPs to reliably transition from current labor-intensive PM programs to a technology driven PdM program, eliminating unnecessary O&M costs. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report (1) reflects the results of work by LWRS Program researchers with PSEG, Nuclear LLC-owned Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Power Plants; (2) presents utilization of circulating water system (CWS) heterogeneous data and fault modes from both the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear power plant sites to develop salient fault signatures associated with each fault mode; (3) describes the integration of component-level predictive models into a robust system-level model enabled by the federated-transfer learning; (4) describes the development of physics-informed model of circulating water pump and motor; (5) develops a scalable risk and economic model; and (6) outlines the development of a user-centric visualization application. The outcomes presented in this report lays the foundation and provides a much-needed technical basis to focus on explainability and trustworthiness of ML and AI-based technologies, as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

AP-Net: An atomic-pairwise neural network for smooth and transferable interaction potentials

Intermolecular interactions are critical to many chemical phenomena, but their accurate computation using ab initio methods is often limited by computational cost. The recent emergence of machine learning (ML) potentials may be a promising alternative. Useful ML models should not only estimate accurate interaction energies but also predict smooth and asymptotically correct potential energy surfaces. However, existing ML models are not guaranteed to obey these constraints. Indeed, systemic deficiencies are apparent in the predictions of our previous hydrogen-bond model as well as the popular ANI-1X model, which we attribute to the use of an atomic energy partition. As a solution, we propose an alternative atomic-pairwise framework specifically for intermolecular ML potentials, and we introduce AP-Net—a neural network model for interaction energies. The AP-Net model is developed using this physically motivated atomic-pairwise paradigm and also exploits the interpretability of symmetry adapted perturbation theory (SAPT). We show that in contrast to other models, AP-Net produces smooth, physically meaningful intermolecular potentials exhibiting correct asymptotic behavior. Initially trained on only a limited number of mostly hydrogen-bonded dimers, AP-Net makes accurate predictions across the chemically diverse S66x8 dataset, demonstrating significant transferability. On a test set including experimental hydrogen-bonded dimers, AP-Net predicts total interaction energies with a mean absolute error of 0.37 kcal mol−1, reducing errors by a factor of 2–5 across SAPT components from previous neural network potentials. The pairwise interaction energies of the model are physically interpretable, and an investigation of predicted electrostatic energies suggests that the model “learns” the physics of hydrogen-bonded interactions.

Glick, Zachary L. (ORCID:0000000309002849)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning for slow-extraction uniformity at the Fermilab Delivery Ring

The Muon-to-Electron Conversion Experiment (Mu2e) requires uniform slow extraction from the Fermilab Delivery Ring during each 43 ms spill. This project analyzed 13,737 spills from seven parquet files collected during March and June 2026 commissioning. Each spill contained 430 samples at 0.1 ms resolution and was summarized by the Spill Duty Factor. Null Action and active proportional-integral-derivative conditions established operational baselines. Fixed-ramp sessions were segmented to evaluate reproducibility, drift, and spill-to-spill spread, while a deliberate quadrupole-ramp step identified the beam-response peak and trough. Median profiles were reproducible within fixed conditions but drifted over multi-hour periods. The resulting baselines and response features support future physics-based and machine-learning approaches to real-time spill regulation.

Prescott, Matthew J. [Purdue U., West Lafayette; F↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structurally flexible cloud microphysics, observationally constrained at all scales via ML-accelerated Bayesian inference

We discuss the challenge of developing observationally informed parameterizations of microphysics for use at a hierarchy of modeling scales. Our proposed approach is applicable to any domain that suffers from a two-fold parameterization problem, where physical processes are not resolved at the model scale (the first problem), and those processes are uncertain at any scale (the second problem). For such problems, a physical approach facilitates modeling across scales, as well as systematic observational inference accelerated by machine learning (ML) surrogate models, and quantification of physical uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building surrogate models of nuclear density functional theory with Gaussian processes and autoencoders

From the lightest Hydrogen isotopes up to the recently synthesized Oganesson (Z = 118), it is estimated that as many as about 8,000 atomic nuclei could exist in nature. Most of these nuclei are too short-lived to be occurring on Earth, but they play an essential role in astrophysical events such as supernova explosions or neutron star mergers that are presumed to be at the origin of most heavy elements in the Universe. Understanding the structure, reactions, and decays of nuclei across the entire chart of nuclides is an enormous challenge because of the experimental difficulties in measuring properties of interest in such fleeting objects and the theoretical and computational issues of simulating strongly-interacting quantum many-body systems. Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is a fully microscopic theoretical framework which has the potential of providing such a quantitatively accurate description of nuclear properties for every nucleus in the chart of nuclides. Thanks to high-performance computing facilities, it has already been successfully applied to predict nuclear masses, global patterns of radioactive decay like β or γ decay, and several aspects of the nuclear fission process such as, e.g., spontaneous fission half-lives. Yet, predictive simulations of nuclear spectroscopy—the low-lying excited states and transitions between them—or of nuclear fission, or the quantification of theoretical uncertainties and their propagation to basic or applied nuclear science applications, would require several orders of magnitude more calculations than currently possible. However, most of this computational effort would be spent into generating a suitable basis of DFT wavefunctions. Such a task could potentially be considerably accelerated by borrowing tools from the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we review different approaches to applying supervised and unsupervised learning techniques to nuclear DFT.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗