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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Using Deep Learning to Develop a High Resolution Planetary Boundary Layer Model for Infrasound Propagation
Infrasound, with frequencies less than 20 Hz, is generated by both natural and anthropogenic sources. When one of these sources exerts a force on the atmosphere, infrasonic waves are generated. The propagation of these waves largely depends on temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Previous work has used deep learning to accurately predict atmospheric specifications to altitudes of ~40 km. However, this model breaks down for local distances because it is too low resolution. Here we use a high-resolution meteorological dataset collected in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA to develop a deep learning model that can predict temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Predictions are compared to ground truth observations to show that the model performs well at predicting temperature and wind direction but struggles with prediction wind speed. Model limitations and improvements are also discussed.
An Efficient Three-Dimensional CFD-Based Numerical Wave Tank for a Wave Energy Converter in Extreme Irregular Waves: Preprint
A numerical wave tank approach for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of an extreme irregular seastate is presented. The technique couples a potential flow solution with a CFD solver for more efficient numerical predictions. This method has recently become attractive both for the research community and the industry working with offshore structures. The model is used to determine the response of a submerged pressure differential wave energy converter (WEC) in a fully nonlinear irregular wave condition using the high fidelity CFD code, STAR-CCM+. Potential flow based numerical models are commonly used to predict motions and performance of wave energy converters. Wave kinematics can deviate from potential flow predictions for extreme wave conditions; the excitation loads on an absorber can also be increasingly influenced by viscous effects, not captured in engineering level models. In these extreme conditions, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD model can better predict motions and loads for a WEC. Long time series with varying random seed numbers can be used to identify singular extreme wave events from a stochastic irregular sea state. This approach simulates a more realistic wave series for a given sea state than a regular wave or a focused wave. However, it is computationally infeasible to run these long time series for three-dimensional (3D) CFD simulations. In this work, two-dimensional (2D) CFD simulations with a long domain allow the full development of an extreme nonlinear wave condition. The results are used to identify extreme events from a 50-year storm condition for the PacWave site off the coast of Oregon. A relatively short time window including this extreme event is then mapped to a 3D simulation using a user defined wave methodology. Convergence studies for domain length, wave forcing lengths, and time before the extreme event were conducted.
Self-supervised and multi-fidelity learning for extended predictive soil spectroscopy
Infrared spectroscopy is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and environmentally benign technology that is increasingly recognized as an important solution for meeting the global demand for soil data. While both near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy enable rapid estimation of soil properties, they present a significant trade-off: NIR offers superior scalability and lower operational costs, whereas MIR provides higher analytical fidelity by capturing fundamental molecular vibrations. In this study, we propose a self-supervised, multi-fidelity learning framework designed to bridge this gap. Our approach leverages large-scale MIR spectral libraries to learn a compact, transferable latent representation, into which NIR spectra are subsequently aligned for downstream prediction. The workflow consists of pretraining a latent model on a large MIR library, adapting the representation using a smaller paired NIR–MIR dataset, and evaluating generalization on an independent external test set. Across a range of chemical and physical soil properties, we found that MIR-derived embeddings improved prediction accuracy relative to baseline models that used raw MIR inputs. Predictions derived from the spectrum conversion (NIR to MIR) task did not match the performance of the original MIR spectra but were similar or superior to predictive performance of NIR-only models, suggesting the unified spectral latent space can effectively leverage the larger and more diverse MIR dataset for prediction of soil properties not well represented in current NIR libraries.
Summary of Methodology for Mitigating Risks Associated with Licensing and Qualifying AM Nuclear Materials
The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program focuses on accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is one of the most popular additive manufacturing (AM) processes for fabricating components with intrinsically complex geometries. LPBF was extensively explored for nuclear applications under the previous Transformational Challenge Reactor program. Additionally, Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed and licensed the Peregrine software and larger digital platform that couples machine learning and in situ data collection during AM to detect anomalies and any evolved defects. The digital platform will be critical to (1) the qualification of AM components for nuclear applications that link location-specific data to macroscopic properties and (2) predict final component performance. Current in situ process monitoring tools are valuable for observing the formation of stochastic flaws, but additional data are needed to predict the resulting microstructures and associated material performance. Rapid cooling rates and large thermal gradients have caused large heterogeneities in the microstructure, which cause anisotropy in mechanical performance. The AMMT program is evaluating the best approaches for addressing these heterogeneities and their effect on component performance using a combination of multiscale modeling, enhanced in situ process monitoring, and high throughput experimental testing. This report summarizes strategies for mitigating the risks associated with qualifying AM components, including developing new sensing capabilities for in situ process monitoring and characterizing melt pool solidification and residual stresses to inform multiscale modeling efforts.
Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions
Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.
Scientific Foundations and Approaches for Qualification of Additively Manufactured Structural Components
Additive manufacturing (AM) maintains a wide process window that enables complex designs otherwise unattainable via conventional production technologies. However, the lack of confidence in qualifying AM parts that leverage AM process–structure–property–performance (PSPP) relationships stymies design optimization and adoption of AM. While continuing efforts to map fundamental PSPP relationships that cover the potential design space, we first need pragmatic and then long-term solutions that overcome challenges associated with qualifying AM-designed parts. Two pragmatic solutions include: (1) AM material specifications to substantiate process reproducibility, and (2) component risk categorization to associate system risk relative to part performance and required part quality. A novel qualification paradigm under development involves efficient prediction of part performance over wide-ranging PSPP relationships through targeted testing and computational simulation. Here this paper describes projects at Sandia National Laboratories on PSPP relationship discovery, these pragmatic approaches, and the novel qualification approach.
Application of machine learning to evaluating and remediating models for energy and environmental engineering
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been increasingly successful in their applications to solve energy and environmental engineering problems. ML algorithms have the advantage of being able to solve highly nonlinear issues effectively. Furthermore, considering the limited sample size of data collected in energy and environmental engineering, obtaining a ML model with reasonable accuracy is simple. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the current applications of ML algorithms lack effective screening of dominant factors and comprehensive model validation, which weakens the predictive ability of the models. The present study takes the minimum miscible pressure (MMP) of CO 2 - oil systems as an example. It establishes a systematic and robust predictive model to address this issue. Based on 147 sets of slim tube tests, the predictive models of the MMPs are investigated by application of eight ML algorithms. The paper concludes that most of the published ML models in the field of energy and environmental engineering prediction are not reliable. Furthermore, it addresses the main reasons for the poor performance of some predictive models built by ML and provides guidelines on how to make such models robust. Further, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to point out the defects of current ML modeling methods and propose countermeasures for their application in energy and environmental engineering problems.
Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models
Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.
Design-Space Exploration for Inverse-Design of Wind Turbine Blades Using Data-Driven Methods
The state-of-the-practice aerodynamic design methods for wind turbine blades is typically based on Blade-Element Momentum (BEM) theory using a pre-designed frozen family of airfoils. The airfoils are themselves typically designed using panel methods. The design of the next-generation of large flexible rotors will need to capture the non-linear aerodynamics and three-dimensional flow to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy. Data-driven methods for aerodynamic design using data generated by computational fluid dynamics offer an attractive alternative to BEM-based methods that captures the non-linear aerodynamics of the component airfoils as well as the root and tip sections. In this work, we develop and demonstrate a framework to "smartly" explore the relevant design space in combination with an appropriate automated CFD pipeline to evaluate the aerodynamics of each design. The design-space exploration framework uses appropriate perturbations to the airfoil shape and induction profile from a baseline shape in combination with the inverse-design using BEM. The resulting designs are evaluated using an automated CFD pipeline using the in-house CFD solver framework "Mercury". We perform verification and validation to establish the capability of the Mercury framework to predict the aerodynamic performance of wind turbines. The CFD simulation of the perturbed blade shapes are optimized to restart from the converged baseline simulation to reduce the computational time. Finally, we demonstrate the design-space exploration technique for the design of the outboard section and the full rotor using perturbations to the shape and operating conditions of the NREL 5-MW turbine.
Accelerated Beta Radiation Aging of Interlayer Titanium Nitride in Gallium Nitride Contacts
Research conducted under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a multiprogram national laboratory operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy. An NNSS author co-authored this paper, and portions of this work were supported by the Mission Support and Test Services, LLC, under Contract No. DE-NA0003624 with the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, NA-10 USDOE NA Office of Defense Programs (NA-10). PNNL-SA-163618 Currently, there is no good way to determine the influence of radiation on the aging of betavoltaic electrical contacts. This work tested a method to accelerate the aging of the contacts inside a betavoltaic by enhancing energy deposition within the interfacial region of interest. An electrical contact of gold-titanium on gallium nitride was aged by exposure to tritium betas and electrons in a beamline. The interface stoichiometry was compared to the electrical performance of the contact. The method to age the betavoltaic component could help predict the lifetime performance of the internal electrical contacts and provide assurance of deployment reliability.
Mesoscale Linear Elastic Modeling and Homogenization of Marine Energy Composites
The design of fiber-reinforced composite (FRC)-based components for marine energy applications necessitates a fundamental understanding of material properties and the resulting geometry to predict long-term performance. In this work, we present a modeling workflow to predict linear elastic and diffusive bulk properties at the mesoscale for an idealized geometry based on knowledge of fiber and resin properties. A parametric study was performed to identify the key model input parameters that influence bulk properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate how bulk properties can be leveraged in high-fidelity image-based simulations, where imperfections in tow geometry and voids captured during X-ray computed tomography imaging are explicitly represented within the simulation. Bulk properties of interest include moduli, Poisson’s ratios, hygroscopic swelling, diffusivity, and moisture uptake, which are key parameters for characterizing FRC performance within marine environments. Modeling predictions agreed well with experimental data, except for estimating swelling coefficients, likely due to crack accumulation as a function of moisture uptake. The mesoscale modeling workflow ultimately highlights a versatile framework for understanding the influence of material and geometric properties, which can be leveraged to rapidly assess new FRC-based components.
A semi-coupled aero-servo-hydro numerical model for floating vertical axis wind turbines operating on TLPs
Floating vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) have many advantages over floating horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) at large scales in deep water; however, there are several key challenges to overcome as well. One of the challenges is accurate prediction of the dynamic motion and loads performance of a floating VAWT. Here, a new semi-coupled aero-servo-hydro method is developed to assess dynamic responses of a floating VAWT by modeling the system as a 7-degree-of-freedom (7-DOF) model: the supporting platform is considered as a 6-DOF rigid body; the rotation of the rotor is considered as the 7th DOF. Aerodynamic, hydrodynamic, and mooring loads and control of the rotor speed are fully considered. This model can predict performance of floating VAWTs with reasonable fidelity according to validation with OrcaFlex through static and dynamic responses of a floating VAWT with Darrieus rotor operating on a new tension-leg platform (TLP). Being a reduced complexity model, the 7-DOF model can be efficiently applied to assess performance of the newly designed floating VAWT. This model is used to examine the relative contributions of aerodynamic and wave loads imparted to the floating system and the benefits of a three-bladed VAWT over a two-bladed VAWT through dynamic and fatigue analysis.
An Analytical Model of Erosive Wear of BioMass Comminution Components
An analytical erosion model that relates critical process parameters (speed and impingement angle) to critical material attributes of inorganic mineral species in feedstock (density, size, aspect ratio) and substrate (hardness, toughness, and fatigue ductility) was applied to model wear in pretreatment milling operations. Results of the model were compared to experimental measurements of wear produced using the Accelerated Wear Test (AWT) rig at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Results showed that there is good agreement between predicted and measured performance, and that a quality-by-design (QbD) tool can be developed to predict component reliability based on scientific engineering principles in lieu of trial-and-error approaches.
Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States
Abstract Predicting current and future wildfire frequency and size is central to wildfire control and management. Multiple fire danger indices (FDIs) that incorporate weather and fuel conditions have been developed and utilized to support wildfire predictions and risk assessment. However, the scale‐dependent performance of individual FDIs remains poorly understood, which leads to large uncertainty in the estimated fire sizes under climate change. Here, we calculate four commonly used FDIs over the conterminous United States using high‐resolution (4 km) climate and fuel data sets for the 1984–2019 period. The relationships of these four FDIs to the observed wildfire sizes show that higher values of FDIs correlate to larger total fire sizes; this correlation is more robust at larger spatial scales. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the daily minimum relative humidity and precipitation are the most important drivers of the annual mean fire danger. In the instances of extreme fire danger, wind speed becomes a critical factor and should be considered in the calculation of the FDI. To assess the impact of climate change on future fire size, we calculate the present‐day and end‐of‐century FDIs using the 12 km regional climate model simulations. The four FDIs generally predict consistent changes in future fire potential, suggesting an overall higher fire potential in conjunction with a prolonged wildfire season in future climate. Regionally, the four FDIs also reveal similar seasonal patterns as the enhancement arises mostly in spring and summer over the southwest US while in summer and fall over the northern and eastern US.
Evaluating adaptive and predictive power management strategies for optimizing visualization performance on supercomputers
Power is becoming an increasingly scarce resource on the next generation of supercomputers, and should be used wisely to improve overall performance. One strategy for improving power usage is hardware overprovisioning, i.e., systems with more nodes than can be run at full power simultaneously without exceeding the system-wide power limit. With this study, we compare two strategies for allocating power throughout an overprovisioned system – adaptation and prediction – in the context of visualization workloads. While adaptation has been suitable for workloads with more regular execution behaviors, it may not be as suitable on visualization workloads, since they can have variable execution behaviors. This study considers a total of 104 experiments, which vary the rendering workload, power budget, allocation strategy, and node concurrency, including tests processing data sets up to 1 billion cells and using up to 18,432 cores across 512 nodes. Overall, we find that prediction is a superior strategy for this use case, improving performance up to 27% compared to an adaptive strategy.
Presenting a Model to Predict Changing Snow Albedo for Improving Photovoltaic Performance Simulation
As photovoltaic (PV) deployment increases worldwide, PV systems are being installed more frequently in locations that experience snow cover. The higher albedo of snow, relative to the ground, increases the performance of PV systems in northern and high-altitude locations by reflecting more light onto the PV modules. Accurate modeling of the snow’s albedo can improve estimates of PV system production. Typical modeling of snow albedo uses a simple two-value model that sets the albedo high when snow is present, and low when snow is not present. However, snow albedo changes over time as snow settles and melts and a binary model does not account for transitional changes, which can be significant. Here, we present and validate a model for estimating snow albedo as it changes over time. The model is simple enough to only require daily snow depth and hourly average temperature data, but can be improved through the addition of site-specific factors, when available. We validate this model to quantify its ability to more accurately predict snow albedo and compare the model’s performance against satellite imagery-based methods for obtaining historical albedo data. In addition, we perform modeling using the System Advisor Model (SAM) to show the impact of changes in albedo on energy modeling for PV systems. Overall, our albedo model has a significantly improved ability to predict the solar insolation on PV modules in real time, especially on bifacial PV modules where reflected irradiance plays a larger role in energy production.
Evaluation of AGR-3/4 In-pile Silver Release Predictions Against Post-Irradiation Examination Measurements
Fuel performance modeling codes that accurately predict the transport of radionuclides in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors that utilize tristructural isotopic (TRISO) fuel particles are an important aspect of reactor safety analyses. One objective of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 experiment was to assess the transport of fission products through fuel particles and their subsequent release into the compact matrix and structural graphite materials. This was accomplished by irradiating uranium oxycarbide (UCO) driver fuel particles and designed-to-fail (DTF) particles to serve as known sources of fission products. The fission product of particular interest when it comes to such transport is silver (Ag-110 m), as it has a 250-day half-life and has relatively high mobility in the TRISO coating layers. Furthermore, to assess the current modeling capabilities and diffusion parameters employed in the fuel performance codes PARFUME and BISON, the fractional release of silver release predicted by the two codes were compared against post-irradiation examination measurements from the AGR-3/4 experiment.