Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “operator complexity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49

STILGAR End-of-Project Report

The Subsurface Tunnel Imaging LeveraGed by Analysis of Rayleigh wave ellipticity (STILGAR) project demonstrated an integrated geophysical approach for detecting, locating, and characterizing underground structural changes using dense seismic arrays and advanced inversion techniques. Field campaigns were conducted at two operational mines—the Redmond salt mine (Utah) and Graymont Pleasant Gap limestone mine (Pennsylvania)—providing real-world testbeds for monitoring anthropogenic subsurface activity. At the Redmond salt mine, seismic interferometry combined with back-projection inversion successfully identified continuous, low-amplitude signals from mining operations. The approach differentiated stationary from migrating anthropogenic sources, captured daily operational cycles, and validated the potential of passive seismic monitoring for remote detection of underground activity. At the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine, two dense seismic deployments in the spring and fall of 2023 generated over 4 TB of high-resolution data. Key outcomes included the relocation of 199 underground and 8 surface explosions with accuracies within tens of meters and the development of a 3D P-wave velocity model using the triple-difference tomography algorithm (tomoTD) that resolved major structural features such as the mine entrance, low-velocity tunnels, and roof-collapse areas. Ambient noise cross-correlation and back-projection analyses revealed persistent sources linked to ongoing mining activity, whereas horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and ellipticity studies confirmed stable site responses across seasons and identified soil thickness trends consistent with regional erosional and depositional processes. Checkerboard and sensitivity tests further validated the robustness of the tomographic results. Overall, the findings emphasize that although significant progress has been made in subsurface imaging, further work is needed to enhance the detection and localization of underground structures. Accurate imaging requires higher frequencies, yet anthropogenic sources tend to dominate the seismic record at those frequencies, and high-frequency surface waves are affected by higher modes that complicate interpretation. The improved detection and localization of human-induced signals enabled detailed temporal and spatial mapping of daily mine operations, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous anthropogenic source monitoring. Sensitivity to signals from nontraditional sources, such as fan operations, highlights the broader applicability of this approach to other industrial environments in which continuous and impulsive signals are present. The field campaigns produced a substantial volume of high-quality seismic data, supporting the development and testing of new methods for seismic source characterization and subsurface imaging. Future deployments should include sensors capable of recording lower frequencies to probe deeper structures, increase bandwidth to enhance resolution and sensitivity to both shallow and deep targets, and collect additional large-scale datasets to refine imaging and source characterization techniques. Moreover, conducting 3D modeling studies of seismic wavefields at higher frequencies will provide a better understanding of wave scattering and cavity–wavefield interactions in complex underground environments. In conclusion, the STILGAR project demonstrated that integrated seismic monitoring can effectively characterize underground operations, capturing both natural and anthropogenic signals. The approaches developed provide a foundation for improved detection, localization, and imaging of subsurface structures and are directly transferable to broader industrial monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗

The Architectural Dynamics of the Bacterial Flagellar Motor Switch

The rotary bacterial flagellar motor is remarkable in biochemistry for its highly synchronized operation and amplification during switching of rotation sense. The motor is part of the flagellar basal body, a complex multi-protein assembly. Sensory and energy transduction depends on a core of six proteins that are adapted in different species to adjust torque and produce diverse switches. Motor response to chemotactic and environmental stimuli is driven by interactions of the core with small signal proteins. The initial protein interactions are propagated across a multi-subunit cytoplasmic ring to switch torque. Torque reversal triggers structural transitions in the flagellar filament to change motile behavior. Subtle variations in the core components invert or block switch operation. The mechanics of the flagellar switch have been studied with multiple approaches, from protein dynamics to single molecule and cell biophysics. The architecture, driven by recent advances in electron cryo-microscopy, is available for several species. Computational methods have correlated structure with genetic and biochemical databases. The design principles underlying the basis of switch ultra-sensitivity and its dependence on motor torque remain elusive, but tantalizing clues have emerged. This review aims to consolidate recent knowledge into a unified platform that can inspire new research strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Framework to Integrate Human Reliability Data Obtained from Different Sources Based on the Complexity Scores of Proceduralized Tasks

For many decades, PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) or PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) techniques have been used to enhance the operational safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on the consideration of potential hazards that could result in an unexpected consequence. As human error is one of the potential hazards, diverse human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been proposed to provide a systematic way to estimate the likelihood of human errors (i.e., human error probability, HEP) in specific task contexts. Accordingly, it is evident that the quality of HRA results strongly depends on the credibility of HEP estimations. This implies that, in terms of enhancing this credibility, the collection of raw information (HRA data) that is helpful for understating when and why human errors occur is a crucial issue. In order to address this issue, in this study, the feasibility of a framework to integrate HRA data obtained from different sources is investigated based on the complexity of proceduralized tasks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A structural description of the evolution of stakeholders and risk communication in the Department of Energy's defense nuclear facilities: Historical perspective, major stakeholders, and external events

Regulators and policymakers are routinely challenged with explaining complex concepts concerning risk. Part of the challenge is helping external and internal stakeholders to understand the context behind risk-related information and decisions. Here, this paper will describe the historical evolution of the safety and regulatory framework for an important category in the nuclear industry—defense nuclear facilities owned and operated by the US Department of Energy. In parallel with describing this evolution, three major events which occurred external to the complex of defense nuclear facilities will be summarized, and their impact on the maturation of the Department's safety and regulatory framework will be discussed. Finally, integrated with these two threads of discussion will be a chronicle of the changing set of involved organizations and the expanding set of external stakeholders involved in risk decisions—and therefore, the risk communications ecosystem surrounding defense nuclear facilities. It will be noted that this system was once describable as a classic “iron triangle,” but now has progressed to a complex network of federal and state organizations, numerous congressional committees, and expanding sets of external stakeholders. It is hoped that a comprehensive discussion of the context of risk assessment in the defense nuclear facilities complex—addressing historical insights, organizational evolution, and the maturing structure of regulation—will provide enhanced opportunities for building trust and understanding in this complex environment.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

High-resolution ion mobility based on traveling wave structures for lossless ion manipulation resolves hidden lipid features

Abstract High-resolution ion mobility (resolving power > 200) coupled with mass spectrometry (MS) is a powerful analytical tool for resolving isobars and isomers in complex samples. High-resolution ion mobility is capable of discerning additional structurally distinct features, which are not observed with conventional resolving power ion mobility (IM, resolving power ~ 50) techniques such as traveling wave IM and drift tube ion mobility (DTIM). DTIM in particular is considered to be the “gold standard” IM technique since collision cross section (CCS) values are directly obtained through a first-principles relationship, whereas traveling wave IM techniques require an additional calibration strategy to determine accurate CCS values. In this study, we aim to evaluate the separation capabilities of a traveling wave ion mobility structures for lossless ion manipulation platform integrated with mass spectrometry analysis (SLIM IM-MS) for both lipid isomer standards and complex lipid samples. A cross-platform investigation of seven subclass-specific lipid extracts examined by both DTIM-MS and SLIM IM-MS showed additional features were observed for all lipid extracts when examined under high resolving power IM conditions, with the number of CCS-aligned features that resolve into additional peaks from DTIM-MS to SLIM IM-MS analysis varying between 5 and 50%, depending on the specific lipid sub-class investigated. Lipid CCS values are obtained from SLIM IM ( TW(SLIM) CCS) through a two-step calibration procedure to align these measurements to within 2% average bias to reference values obtained via DTIM ( DT CCS). A total of 225 lipid features from seven lipid extracts are subsequently identified in the high resolving power IM analysis by a combination of accurate mass-to-charge, CCS, retention time, and linear mobility-mass correlations to curate a high-resolution IM lipid structural atlas. These results emphasize the high isomeric complexity present in lipidomic samples and underscore the need for multiple analytical stages of separation operated at high resolution. Graphical abstract

Reardon, Allison R. (ORCID:0000000165830134)↗

Modeling aqueous association constants and mineral solubilities at subcritical and supercritical temperatures

The need for sustainable power generation has increased interest in the use of hydrothermal fluids for industrial applications. New high-enthalpy geothermal systems and biowaste-to-fuel processes are two relevant examples that employ supercritical fluids which require an in-depth understanding of complex chemical reactions occurring near the supercritical temperature of water (374 °C). As these processes operate in thermodynamic regimes that are not currently covered by a standard molar Gibbs energy of formation model, only empirical fits for single reaction systems are available which limit the use of multi-component phase equilibria calculations that are standard practice for less extreme environments. Here, in this paper, we advance a standard molar Gibbs energy of formation model able to operate in these otherwise inaccessible thermodynamic states to include species needed for key mineral solubility systems and ion association reactions. This work extends a model based on molecular statistical thermodynamics (MST) into four new systems (Na 3 PO 4 -H 2 O, LiOH-H 2 O, KOH-H 2 O, and BaSO 4 -H 2 O) by extending the model to cover 10 new species. For each of these systems, model predictions were consistently within the experimental uncertainties for the new systems covered. A breakdown of MST contributions to the model revealed that electrostatic and hard sphere contributions were key to reproducing density dependencies of standard molar Gibbs energy of formation values around the critical point of water.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Failure investigation of nuclear grade POCO graphite target in high energy neutrino physics through numerical simulation

In many high energy physics neutrino beamlines, targets are made up of isotropic POCO graphite grade for production of neutrinos for high energy particle physics research and are bombarded with highly energetic pulsed proton beam. The pulsed proton beam with a small beam size creates thermal stress waves as well as radiation damage such as displacement damage, void formation, swelling, and gas formation amongst others. As a result, after a few years of operation one of the longest operated targets appears to have undergone bulk swelling and fractured along the beam centerline. A complex interaction of dynamic loading due to beam, material degradation due to irradiation are thought to have caused such a failure. Here, we present a numerical simulation to capture the combined effects of swelling and the dynamic effect of thermal stress waves due to beam heating, to explain the failure of target. An empirical formula has been developed to take into account swelling as a function of temperature and proton fluence and has been implemented in a commercial finite element code. Extensive X-ray diffraction (XRD) were performed on graphite samples from the failed target to understand the lattice parameter changes due to irradiation and build a valid empirical model. Simulation results show that swelling plays a major role in elevating the stress state in the material exceeding the failure strength while the pulsed beam heating also introduces fatigue loading that would explain brittle fracture emanating from inside of the material and propagating outward. Such empirical formulations will help in identifying the threshold values of critical parameters to extend the service life of future multi-megawatt neutrino targets and targets in other accelerator environments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Mesoporous Thin Film Architectures: Addressing Material Demands through Molecular Self-Assembly

Mesoporous thin films spark interest across a wide range of disciplines due to their tunable nanostructures, large internal surface areas, and strong compatibility with planar optical, electronic, and microfluidic devices. While attention in the porous materials community has shifted toward macroporous or disordered nanoporous systems, a resurgence in mesoporous thin film research is underway, driven by new molecular self-assembly methods, advanced materials chemistry, and improved characterization techniques. The integration of high-χN block copolymer design, kinetically persistent micelle templating, and postdeposition processing protocols now allows control over structural parameters such as pore size, wall thickness, porosity, and connectivity. These advances have overcome many of the thermodynamic and processing constraints that previously limited widespread adoption. Rather than serving only as high-surface-area supports, mesoporous thin films are engineered as active interfaces where responsive chemistries and nanoscale confinement act in tandem. Embedding switchable ligands, thermoresponsive polymers, redox mediators, or ion-selective groups directly within the pore walls enables real-time control over transport, optical, and electrochemical properties. These capabilities open up new directions in adaptive coatings, gated membranes, and fast-response biosensors. To further expand their functional scope, mesoporous films are integrated into hierarchical and multicomponent architectures. Techniques such as triblock terpolymer templating, crack-directed assembly, and nanoimprint lithography allow for control over spatial organization on the micron and submicron scale and pore system orientation. This enables programmable anisotropy, enhanced molecular diffusion, and wavelength-selective photonic behavior, essential for next-generation sensing, catalysis, and energy applications. Such structural and functional complexity requires equally sophisticated characterization. Multimodal and in situ techniques can track material dynamics under operational conditions. Recent progress includes extended-range ellipsometric porosimetry (EP) for hierarchical architectures, vacuum EP for interface energetics, time-resolved EP for diffusion kinetics, and correlative AFM-SAXS mapping. The introduction of advanced neutron-based spectroscopies, particularly quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS), promises to provide real-time access to ion transport dynamics and segmental motion under nanoscale confinement, offering a path toward deeper mechanistic understanding of structure-performance correlations in mesoporous systems. This Account reflects the technical advances made and the interdisciplinary collaborations that have shaped our collective vision. The particular dimensions of mesopores enable us to subtly tune interactions at the molecular, interfacial, and mesoscopic levels that permit us to harness nanoconfinement. What emerges is a versatile, modular platform capable of chemical gating, energy transduction, and sensing with a level of tunability unmatched by other porous materials. We highlight critical challenges including the need for more robust large-area processing, a deeper understanding of dynamic behavior under cycling, and better integration with device-level architectures. Our strategies support the transition of mesoporous thin films into active high-performance components in next-generation energy, environmental, and biomedical systems.

oxides↗

Probing Electrochemical Mg-Ion Activity in MgCr 2– x V x O 4 Spinel Oxides

Mg migration in oxide spinels is impeded by strong affinity between divalent Mg and oxygen, suggesting a necessity of exploring new chemistry of solid lattices for functional Mg-ion electrode materials. Cationic mobility with a suitable activation energy in Cr spinels is Tn. evidenced by theoretical and experimental results, while redox potentials of V are appropriate to operate with currently limited candidates of '''c" nonaqueous electrolytes. By controlling the structure, composition, and complexity, a largely solid-solution MgCrVO 4 spinel was synthesized, which, unlike nanocornposites, can bring together the advantages of each transition metal in the lattice. The spinel was successfully synthesized by a simple solid-state reaction with minor inactive Cr- or V-rich components, which was confirmed via 25 Mg MAS NMR and high-resolution X-ray diffraction analyses. A thermally and anodically stable Mg(TPFA) 2 /triglyme electrolyte was utilized for high-temperature electrochemistry and lowering kinetic barriers at and across interfaces so as to observe intercalation behavior of Mg in the designed lattice. Multimodal characterization confirmed an apparent bulk demagnesiation from MgCrVO 4 with partial reversibility by probing evolution of the local and long-range structure as well as vanadium and chromium electronic states within the lattice. Furthermore, characterization experiments also provided a direct evidence for (de)intercalation reactions that occurred without any major competitive conversion reactions or insertion of protons into the lattice, except for the formation of a surface rock salt phase upon charge. These findings in Mg-ion activity expand opportunities to design Mg spinel oxide materials while highlighting the need to identify the origins of reversibility challenges due to, but not limited to, phase stability, particularly for the charged states, barriers at the interface, electrolyte stabilities, and desolvation phenomena, collectively hindering practical use as cathode materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Electrolyte Oxidation Pathways in Lithium-Ion Batteries

The mitigation of decomposition reactions of lithium-ion battery electrolyte solutions is of critical importance in controlling device lifetime and performance. However, due to the complexity of the system, exacerbated by the diverse set of electrolyte compositions, electrode materials, and operating parameters, a clear understanding of the key chemical mechanisms remains elusive. In this work, operando pressure measurements, solution NMR, and electrochemical methods were combined to study electrolyte oxidation and reduction at multiple cell voltages. Two-compartment LiCoO 2 /Li cells were cycled with a lithium-ion conducting glass–ceramic separator so that the species formed at each electrode could be identified separately and further reactions of these species at the opposite electrode prevented. One principal finding is that chemical oxidation (with an onset voltage of ~4.7 V vs Li/Li + for LiCoO 2 ), rather than electrochemical reaction, is the dominant decomposition process at the positive electrode surface in this system. This is ascribed to the well-known release of reactive oxygen at higher states-of-charge, indicating that reactions of the electrolyte at the positive electrode are intrinsically linked to surface reactivity of the active material. Soluble electrolyte decomposition products formed at both electrodes are characterized, and a detailed reaction scheme is constructed to rationalize the formation of the observed species. The insights on electrolyte decomposition through reactions with reactive oxygen species identified through this work have a direct impact on understanding and mitigating degradation in high-voltage/higher-energy-density LiCoO 2 -based cells, and more generally for cells containing nickel-containing cathode materials (e.g., LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 ; NMCs), as they lose oxygen at lower operating voltages.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thermal Fluid Modeling Approaches in SAM for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Applications

This paper provides an overview of the unique modeling and simulation challenges and needs in the system and safety analysis of two common types of High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) designs. The challenges are associated with the complex core geometry configurations and the change of the dominant heat removal mechanisms between normal operating conditions and decay heat removal transients. This requires that simulation tools utilize models with reasonable length scales and capture both the localized heat transfer and the core-scale heat transfer at the same time. To meet such analysis needs, different methodologies were developed. In conclusion, this includes adopting existing methods and further developing/improving them, as well as proposing innovative methods that leverage advanced computational frameworks such as the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE).

HTGR↗

LibraryX: A Framework for Cross-Library-Call Optimization

Scientific applications utilize performance libraries as a software engineering concept: these libraries encapsulate important and well-understood (mathematical) operations, allow for reuse, and are implemented and tuned by experts. Domain scientists then implement complex algorithms based on these domainspecific libraries. While individual library calls are optimized, larger performance gains across sequences of calls—sometimes spanning multiple libraries—are often unrealized, forcing a trade-off between performance and implementation complexity.To overcome this issue, we propose LibraryX, an approach and a system that allows for cross-library-call optimization even when library calls stem from multiple performance libraries. LibraryX annotates library calls with semantic information and optimizes entire directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of calls dynamically using the SPIRAL code generation system. We demonstrate its effectiveness across a range of memory bound workloads, achieving significant speedups on Nvidia, AMD, and Intel accelerators compared to code using native libraries without cross-call optimization.

Rao, Sanil [Carnegie Mellon University,Department ↗

A Broadband Mechanically Tuned Superconducting Cavity Design Suitable for the Fermilab Main Injector

Radio Frequency superconductivity has been a mainstay of accelerator science for decades. However, its benefits have yet to be applied to proton synchrotrons with demanding tuning requirements. For example, the Main Injector (MI), Fermilab's high-energy proton synchrotron, currently utilizes 20+ ferrite-loaded cavities for a targeted 1.2 s acceleration cycle. Harnessing the extremely high gradients associated with superconductivity, the required number of cavities could be reduced by an order of magnitude, dramatically lowering operational power requirements even with cryogenic considerations. Additionally, the current plans for the Fermilab accelerator complex evolution initiative involve almost doubling the number of cavities in MI if the same designs are to be used, further highlighting the potential benefits of superconductivity. These advantages are attractive, but to date, no tunable superconducting cavity suitable for MI has been proposed due to the incompatibility of conventional broadband tuning methods with superconductivity. Here, we present a tunable superconducting cavity concept capable of record-breaking performance. Tuning will be accomplished by using high-speed linear actuators to vary the insertion depth of metallic plungers into the cavity volume. This tuning concept is theoretically viable with currently available technology and will be fully compatible with a superconducting cavity.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

PyTrac

SAND2025-00635O PyTrac is a software tool that analyzes and visualizes PTRAC event files generated by MCNP 6.3. It converts these files into a graph network that makes it easier to interpret individual histories. The software includes command line tools for viewing the graph data structure in both 2D and 3D formats. PyTrac also integrates with MCNP to run simulations and manage data files. This provides a streamlined approach to analyzing and understanding the complex data generated by MCNP simulations. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Nowack, Aaron [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic well being. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyber attacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal is to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The team consisted of leading experts from two major universities – Iowa State University, Washington State University – complemented by reputed researchers from two DOE national laboratories – Pacific Northwest National Lab, and Argonne National Lab, one major utility vendor GE Global Research, and one utility partner – Cedar Falls Utilities (CFU). The team members have proven track record of successful academic-industry collaboration in interdisciplinary R&D projects, and bring onboard some of the best state-of-the-art testbed resources, industry-grade SCADA/EMS/DMS environment for experimentation and field demonstration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗