Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Observing System
Assimilation systems synthesize diverse in-situ and satellite data streams into full four-dimensional state estimates by combining the strengths of each data set and also of the model. The resulting analysis provides an integrated view of the information in the various observations as well as derived estimates of unobserved quantities. Assimilation systems are particularly important for the ocean where subsurface observations, even today, are sparse and intermittent compared with the scales needed to represent ocean variability and where satellites only sense the surface. Increasingly, models and assimilation systems are being used to provide information about the current observing system and to help in the design plans for new observations. Whether it is as a user of observations or a contributor to evaluation of the observing system, ocean synthesis and assimilation systems are now an integral part of the global ocean observing and information system. Major advances have been made over the last decade under the auspices of WCRP's Climate Variability and Predictability Project (CLIVAR) and the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). In addition to advances in the assimilation systems, there have been major developments in the observing system, with satellite altimetry, the tropical moored buoy arrays in the Pacific and Atlantic, and more recently Argo. These developments have led to significant advances in our understanding and prediction of ocean variations at both mesoscale and climate scales. Many challenges remain. Some of these challenges lie in the observations themselves, some in the assimilation systems that, even in the more recent era of unprecedented observations from satellite altimetry and Argo, provide different views of climate variations. Yet there are many examples of successful applications from ocean assimilation products. Use of these systems for assessing the observing system helps identify the strengths of each observation type, and indicates that none of the current observations is redundant. Indeed, the indication is that the ocean remains under-sampled and that further improvements in the observing system are needed for both climate monitoring and prediction. Future developments will be increasingly towards consistent analyses across components of the Earth system using, e.g., coupled atmosphere-ocean models.