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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Fitting a 3-D analytic model of the coronal mass ejection to observations

The application of an analytic magnetohydrodynamic model is presented to observations of the time-dependent explusion of 3D coronal mass ejections (CMEs) out of the solar corona. This model relates the white-light appearance of the CME to its internal magnetic field, which takes the form of a closed bubble, filled with a partly anchored, twisted magnetic flux rope and embedded in an otherwise open background field. The density distribution frozen into the expanding CME expanding field is fully 3D, and can be integrated along the line of sight to reproduce observations of scattered white light. The model is able to reproduce the three conspicuous features often associated with CMEs as observed with white-light coronagraphs: a surrounding high-density region, an internal low-density cavity, and a high-density core. The model also describes the self-similar radial expansion of these structures. By varying the model parameters, the model can be fitted directly to observations of CMEs. It is shown how the model can quantitatively match the polarized brightness contrast of a dark cavity emerging through the lower corona as observed by the HAO Mauna Loa K-coronameter to within the noise level of the data.

Gibson, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mars Observer: Planetary Constants and Model

The value of EOT in degrees is usually converted to solar-minutes to give the correction to mean solar time to obtain true solar time. The value of EOT for Mars over the Mars Observer mapping phase is plotted.

Mars Planetary Constants Models↗
NASA NTRS2019

Initial Results from the GEM Challenge on the Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Spacecraft surface charging during geomagnetically disturbed times is one of the most important causes of satellite anomalies. Predicting the surface charging environment is one prevalent task of the geospace environment models. Therefore, the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Focus Group "Inner Magnetosphere Crossenergy/Population Interactions" initiated a communitywide challenge study to assess the capability of several inner magnetosphere ring current models in determining surface charging environment for the Van Allen Probes orbits during the 17 March 2013 storm event. The integrated electron flux between 10 and 50 keV is used as the metrics. Various skill scores are applied to quantitatively measure the modeling performance against observations. Results indicate that no model consistently perform the best in all of the skill scores or for both satellites. We find that from these simulations the ring current model with observational flux boundary condition and Weimer electric potential driver generally reproduces the most realistic flux level around the spacecraft. A simple and weaker VollandStern electric field is not capable of effectively transporting the same plasma at the boundary toward the Earth. On the other hand, if the ring current model solves the electric field selfconsistently and obtains similar strength and pattern in the equatorial plane as the Weimer model, the boundary condition plays another crucial role in determining the electron flux level in the inner region. When the boundary flux spectra based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model/empirical model deviate from the shape or magnitude of the observed distribution function, the simulation produces poor skill scores along Van Allen Probes orbits.

Yu, Yiqun↗
NASA NTRS1997

Satellite Sensed Skin Sea Surface Temperature

Quantitative predictions of spatial and temporal changes the global climate rely heavily on the use of computer models. Unfortunately, such models cannot provide the basis for climate prediction because key physical processes are inadequately treated. Consequently, fine tuning procedures are often used to optimize the fit between model output and observational data and the validation of climate models using observations is essential if model based predictions of climate change are to be treated with any degree of confidence. Satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations provide high spatial and temporal resolution data which is extremely well suited to the initialization, definition of boundary conditions and, validation of climate models. In the case of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the SST (or more correctly the 'Skin' SST (SSST)) is a fundamental diagnostic variable to consider in the validation process. Daily global SST maps derived from satellite sensors also provide adequate data for the detection of global patterns of change which, unlike any other SST data set, repeatedly extend into the southern hemisphere extra-tropical regions. Such data are essential to the success of the spatial 'fingerprint' technique, which seeks to establish a north-south asymmetry where warming is suppressed in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Some estimates suggest that there is a greater than 80% chance of directly detecting significant change (97.5 % confidence level) after 10-12 years of consistent global observations of mean sea surface temperature. However, these latter statements should be qualified with the assumption that a negligible drift in the observing system exists and that biases between individual instruments required to derive a long term data set are small. Given that current estimates for the magnitude of global warming of 0.015 K yr(sup -1) - 0.025 K yr(sup -1), satellite SST data sets need to be both accurate and stable if such a warming trend is to be confidently detected. Some of these activities are focussed to develop and deploy instrumentation suitable for the collection of precise in situ measurements of the SSST which can be used to improve the accuracy of satellite measurements, while others develop techniques to generate improved global analyses of sea surface temperature using historical data.

Donlon, Craig↗
NASA NTRS1998

Model Simulations of Ozone in the Summer Lower Stratosphere

The Goddard 3D chemistry and transport model (CTM) uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS); thus CTM simulations can be compared directly with observations from satellite, balloon and aircraft. In general, aspects of these comparisons show remarkable agreement between observation and model. One significant difference is that the model ozone is high biased below the ozone peak. The bias is apparently largest at high latitudes during the summer months. At the same time, comparisons with HALOE observations show that at mid to high latitudes, the ozone mixing ratio peak appears persistently at a lower altitude than observed by HALOE; the peak mixing ratio is also overestimated by the model. Both transport and photochemistry are possible contributors to the biased ozone in the lower stratosphere - excessive downward motion would increase lower stratospheric ozone, as would a too large vertical gradient in ozone. On the other hand, comparisons of model N2O and NOy with observations suggest transport deficiencies in the opposite sense, i.e., model N2O can be high relative to observations (particularly during winter), suggesting the need for stronger downward transport. Sensitivity studies have been carried out using parameterizations for ozone production and loss, NOy production and loss, and N2O loss. The goal of these studies is to clarify how problems in the photochemical scheme at and above the ozone peak influence the lower stratospheric ozone.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The X-ray source Serpens X-1 - Ariel 5 observations and discussion of models for the spectrum and time variability

Experimental data from Ariel 5 on the spectral shape and time variability of Ser X-1 are presented, and possible explanations for the observations are discussed in terms of current theoretical suggestions for source emission. The observations are summarized in the form of a light curve for 3-7.6-keV photons. The data are fitted with a power law of index -2.3, which yields a hydrogen column density of (1.1 + or - 0.4) x 10 to the 22nd power atoms/sq cm. No persistent periodicity of amplitude greater than 5% of the steady flux is found, but evidence of statistically significant burst activity is obtained. Various emission mechanisms are considered for the time-averaged spectrum and the X-ray bursts. It is suggested that the inverse Compton mechanism is a likely cause for the emission from this source and that the source is radiating near the Eddington limit.

Coe, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A comparison of limited-area energetic processes between observations and primitive equation model predictions

Energetic analyses of the NMC initial conditions and NMC six-layer primitive equation operational prediction model 12-hr forecast for a developing cyclone are presented. Consideration is given to the total kinetic energy, the energetics of the divergent and nondivergent flows and the baroclinic (vertical shear flow) and barotropic (vertical mean flow) components of the kinetic energy. It is found that the model initial conditions lose 10-15% of the kinetic energy at various levels compared to a limited-area multivariate statistical analysis of the observational data, leading to a decrease in the horizontal kinetic energy flux, a misrepresentation of the synoptic scale wave system in the 12-hr forecast. Similar results are obtained for the nondivergent flow, while the divergent flow energetics are not reproduced accurately by the model. The horizontal flux terms of the vertical mean and vertical shear energetics are also not found to be reproduced in the upper levels, although horizontal flux contributions to the baroclinic component are improved at middle and lower levels. Finally, vertical shear kinetic energy generation is found to be well represented in the model prediction, however kinetic energy conversion between vertical shear and mean flow is not reproduced in the lower layer.

Alpert, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Photodissociation Regions in the Interstellar Medium of Galaxies

The interstellar medium of galaxies is the reservoir out of which stars are born and into which stars inject newly created elements as they age. The physical properties of the interstellar medium are governed in part by the radiation emitted by these stars. Far-ultraviolet (6 eV less than h(nu) less than 13.6 eV) photons from massive stars dominate the heating and influence the chemistry of the neutral atomic gas and much of the molecular gas in galaxies. Predominantly neutral regions of the interstellar medium in which the heating and chemistry are regulated by far ultraviolet photons are termed Photo-Dissociation Regions (PDRs). These regions are the origin of most of the non-stellar infrared (IR) and the millimeter and submillimeter CO emission from galaxies. The importance of PDRs has become increasingly apparent with advances in IR and submillimeter astronomy. The IR emission from PDRs includes fine structure lines of C, C+, and O; rovibrational lines of H2, rotational lines of CO; broad middle features of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; and a luminous underlying IR continuum from interstellar dust. The transition of H to H2 and C+ to CO occurs within PDRs. Comparison of observations with theoretical models of PDRs enables one to determine the density and temperature structure, the elemental abundances, the level of ionization, and the radiation field. PDR models have been applied to interstellar clouds near massive stars, planetary nebulae, red giant outflows, photoevaporating planetary disks around newly formed stars, diffuse clouds, the neutral intercloud medium, and molecular clouds in the interstellar radiation field-in summary, much of the interstellar medium in galaxies. Theoretical PDR models explain the observed correlations of the [CII] 158 microns with the COJ = 1-0 emission, the COJ = 1-0 luminosity with the interstellar molecular mass, and the [CII] 158 microns plus [OI] 63 microns luminosity with the IR continuum luminosity. On a more global scale, MR models predict the existence of two stable neutral phases of the interstellar medium, elucidate the formation and destruction of star-forming molecular clouds, and suggest radiation-induced feedback mechanisms that may regulate star formation rates and the column density of gas through giant molecular clouds.

Hollenbach, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2025

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2000

Photodissociation Regions

The interstellar medium of galaxies is the reservoir out of which stars are born and into which stars inject newly created elements as they age. The physical properties of the interstellar medium are governed in part by the radiation emitted by these stars. Far-ultraviolet (6 eV< hNu < 13.6 eV) photons from massive stars dominate the heating and influence the chemistry of the neutral atomic gas and much of the molecular gas in galaxies. Predominantly neutral regions of the interstellar medium in which the heating and chemistry are regulated by far ultraviolet photons are termed Photodissociation Regions (PDRs). These regions are the origin of most of the non-stellar infrared (IR) and the millimeter and submillimeter CO emission from galaxies. The importance of PDRs has become increasingly apparent with the advances in IR and submillimeter astronomy. The IR emission from PDRs includes fine structure lines of C, C(+) and O; rovibrational lines of H2; rotational lines of CO; broad mid-IR features of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; and a luminous underlying IR continuum from interstellar dust. The transition of H to H2 and C(+) to CO occurs within PDRs. Comparison of observations with theoretical models of PDRs enables one to determine the density and temperature structure, the elemental abundances, the level of ionization, and the radiation field. PDR models have been applied to interstellar clouds near massive stars, planetary nebulae, red giant outflows, photoevaporating planetary disks around newly formed stars, diffuse clouds, the neutral intercloud medium, and molecular clouds in the interstellar radiation field-in summary, much of the interstellar medium in galaxies. Theoretical PDR models explain the observed correlations of the [CII] 158, micrometers with the CO J=1-0 emission, the CO J=1-0 luminosity with the interstellar molecular mass, and the [CII] 158 micrometers plus [OI] 63 micrometers luminosity with the IR continuum luminosity. On a more global scale, PDR models predict the existence of two stable neutral phases of the interstellar medium, elucidate the formation and destruction of star-forming molecular clouds, and suggest radiation-induced feedback mechanisms that may regulate star formation rates and the column density of gas through giant molecular clouds.

Hollenbach, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

(abstract)Electron Impact Emission Cross Sections for Modeling UV Auroral and Dayglow Observations of the Upper Atmospheres of Planets

In the upper atmospheres of the Jovian and Terrestrial planets a dominant mechanism for energy transfer occurs through electron collisional processes with neutral species leading to UV radiation. In response to the need for accurate collision cross sections to model spectroscopic observations of planetary systems, JPL has measured in the laboratory emission cross sections and medium resolution spectra of H, H(sub 2), N(sub 2), SO(sub 2), and other important planetary gases.Voyager and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spacecraft have established that band systems of H(sub 2) and N(sub 2) are the dominant UV molecular emissions in the solar system produced by electron impact. Applications of our data to models of Voyager, IUE, Galileo, and Hubble Space Telescope observations of the planets will be described.

molecular emissions↗
NASA NTRS1972

Ultraviolet clouds on Venus - Observational bias.

A sidereal model for calculating the observational bias imposed in an assumed distribution of periods of rotation for the ultraviolet cloud markings on Venus has been investigated. The results are compared to the observed distribution. Observational constraints are varied in the model in order to determine the influence of each parameter. The observational bias is investigated for single stations and pairs of stations located 6 and 12hr apart.

Beebe, R. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Water and Energy Cycles in Contemporary Atmospheric Reanalyses in US Basins

Global atmospheric reanalyses have become an important tool for climate studies, owing to the inclusion of observation driven model quantities that are not easily observed, if at all. This includes the study of regional water and energy budgets, despite the fact that the physical terms of the budgets do not balance, owing in large part to the influence of assimilated observations. Here, we focus on the regional water and energy budgets for key river basins in the US, related to the Humans and Hydroclimate in the US (H2US, a Global Energy and Watercycle EXchanges, GEWEX, regional hydroclimate project). Regional budgets and their residuals (related to the assimilated observations) from contemporary reanalyses will be evaluated and intercompared to assess the improvements over previous reanalyses and identify their strengths and weaknesses as contributions to H2US. When available, the observational analysis increments will be quantified directly, and as residuals when that information is missing. Early results show improvements over the Mississippi River basin water cycle closure, and reduced analysis increments. However, the energy analysis increments show non negligible seasonality. Results for the Colorado River basin and National Climate Assessment (NCA) regions will also be presented. The results will emphasize the need for reanalyses and models to produce complete budget equation terms.

Michael Bosilovich↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗
NASA NTRS1989

A model for depolarized radar echoes from Mars

The depolarized radar echoes from Mars are modeled using a combination of remote-sensing observations. The model reproduces the variations of the total radar cross-sections with longitude observed by Goldstone (1986) along 7 S, yields larger magnitudes of total radar cross-sections along 22 N than those along 7 S, and produces depolarized echo spectra that broadly match those observed by the Arecibo radar in 1980 and 1982. The model indicates that volcanoes and lava plains of the Tharsis-Alba Patera, Elysium, and Amazonia regions have the strongest depolarized echoes from the entire planet. Rock populations for the moon and Mars are estimated assuming depolarized radar echoes result from rocks with radii between 1.3 and three times the wavelength.

Thompson, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the far-IR and sub-mm spectra of spiral galaxies

Photometric measurements of three Virgo cluster spirals (NGC4254, NGC4501, and NGC4654) at 160-microns (far-infrared) and 360-microns (submillimeter) wavelengths are compared with theoretical models and observations at other wavelengths. It is shown that the data at the observed wavelengths do not fit any of interstellar dust grain models very well; four possibilities are given in order to explain discrepancies: the observed wavelength points are incorrect; previously observed data is incorrect; both data are incorrect; and the premise of the analysis is incorrect - a composite far-infrared spectrum of normal spiral galaxies is meaningless because they vary considerably in their far-infrared properties. It is also noted that the observed data are inconsistent with models having large cold grains.

Stark, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An assessment of gravity model improvements using TOPEX/Poseidon TDRSS observations

The contribution of TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) TDRSS data to geopotential model recovery is assessed. Simulated TDRSS one-way and Bilateration Ranging Transponder System (BRTS) observations have been generated and orbitally reduced to form normal equations for geopotential parameters. These normals have been combined with those of the latest prelaunch T/P gravity model solution using data from over 30 satellites. A study of the resulting solution error covariance shows that TDRSS can make important contributions to geopotential recovery, especially for improving T/P specific effects like those arising from orbital resonance. It is argued that future effort is desirable both to establish TDRSS orbit determination limits in a reference frame compatible with that used for the precise laser/DORIS orbits, and the reduction of these TDRSS data for geopotential recovery.

Putney, B. H.↗