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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

Enhanced Star Formation and Black Hole Accretion Rates in Galaxy Mergers in IllustrisTNG50

Many theoretical and observational studies have suggested that galaxy mergers may trigger enhanced star formation or active galactic nucleus activity. We present an analysis of merging and nonmerging galaxies from 0.2 ≤ z ≤ 3 in the IllustrisTNG50 simulation. These galaxies encompass a range of masses (M ⋆ > 10 8 M ⊙ ) and mass ratios (≥1:10) and multiple merger stages. We examine the effect that galaxy mergers have on star formation and black hole accretion rates in the TNG50 universe. We additionally investigate how galaxy and black hole mass, merger stage, merger mass ratio, and redshift affect these quantities. Mergers in our sample show excess specific star formation rates (sSFR) at z ≤ 3 and enhanced specific black hole accretion rates (sBHAR) at z ≲ 2. The difference between sSFRs and sBHARs in the merging sample compared to the nonmerging sample increases as redshift decreases. Additionally, we show that these enhancements persist for at least ∼1 Gyr after the merger event. Investigating how mergers behave in the TNG50 simulation throughout cosmic time enables both a better appreciation of the importance of spatial resolution in cosmological simulations and a better basis to understand our high- z Universe with observations from JWST.

AGN host galaxies↗

Cosmology requirements on supernova photometric redshift systematics for the Rubin LSST and Roman Space Telescope

Some million type Ia supernovae (SN) will be discovered and monitored during upcoming wide area time domain surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). For cosmological use, accurate redshifts are needed among other characteristics; however the vast majority of the SN will not have spectroscopic redshifts, even for their host galaxies, only photometric redshifts. We assess the redshift systematic control necessary for robust cosmology. Based on the photometric vs true redshift relation generated by machine learning applied to a simulation of 500,000 galaxies as observed with LSST quality, we quantify requirements on systematics in the mean relation and in the outlier fraction and deviance so as not to bias dark energy cosmological inference. Certain redshift ranges are particularly sensitive, motivating spectroscopic followup of SN at z ≲ 0.2 and around z ≈ 0.5–0.6 . Including Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope near infrared bands in the simulation, we reanalyze the constraints, finding improvements at high redshift but little at the low redshifts where systematics lead to strong cosmology bias. We identify a complete spectroscopic survey of SN host galaxies for z≲0.2 as a highly favored element for robust SN cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗

Constraining cosmology with the CMB × line intensity mapping-nulling convergence

Lensing reconstruction maps from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provide direct observations of the matter distribution of the universe without the use of a biased tracer. Such maps, however, constitute projected observables along the line of sight that are dominated by their low-redshift contributions. To cleanly access high-redshift information, Maniyar et al., [Phys. Rev. D 105, 083509 (2022)] showed that a linear combination of lensing maps from both CMB and line intensity mapping (LIM) observations can exactly null the low-redshift contribution to CMB lensing convergence. In this paper we explore the scientific returns of this nulling technique. Here, we show that LIM-nulling estimators can place constraints on standard Λ⁢CDM plus neutrino mass parameters that are competitive with traditional CMB lensing. Additionally, we demonstrate that as a clean probe of the high-redshift universe, LIM nulling can be used for model-independent tests of cosmology beyond Λ⁢CDM and as a probe of the high-redshift matter power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the MagLim lens sample

The cosmological information extracted from photometric surveys is most robust when multiple probes of the large scale structure of the Universe are used. Two of the most sensitive probes are the clustering of galaxies and the tangential shear of background galaxy shapes produced by those foreground galaxies, so-called galaxy-galaxy lensing. Combining the measurements of these two two-point functions leads to cosmological constraints that are independent of the way galaxies trace matter (the galaxy bias factor). The optimal choice of foreground, or lens, galaxies is governed by the joint, but conflicting requirements to obtain accurate redshift information and large statistics. We present cosmological results from the full 5000 deg 2 of the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations (Y3) combining those two-point functions, using for the first time a magnitude-limited lens sample (MagLim) of 11 million galaxies, especially selected to optimize such combination, and 100 million background shapes. We consider two flat cosmological models, the Standard Model with dark energy and cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) a variation with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state ( w CDM ). Both models are marginalized over 25 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. In Λ CDM we obtain for the matter density Ω m = 0.320 - 0.034 + 0.041 and for the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.778 - 0.031 + 0.037 , at 68% C.L. The latter is only 1 σ smaller than the prediction in this model informed by measurements of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck satellite. In w CDM we find Ω m = 0.32 - 0.046 + 0.044 , S 8 = 0.777 - 0.051 + 0.049 and dark energy equation of state w = - 1.031 - 0.379 + 0.218 . We find that including smaller scales, while marginalizing over nonlinear galaxy bias, improves the constraining power in the Ω m - S 8 plane by 31% and in the Ω m - w plane by 41% while yielding consistent cosmological parameters from those in the linear bias case. These results are combined with those from cosmic shear in a companion paper to present full DES-Y3 constraints from the three two-point functions ( 3 × 2 pt ).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards Precision Photometric Type ia Supernova Cosmology With Machine Learning

The revolutionary discovery of dark energy and accelerating cosmic expansion was made with just 42 type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in 1999. Since then, large synoptic surveys, e.g., Dark Energy Survey (DES), have observed thousands more SNe Ia and the upcoming Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and Roman Space Telescope promise to deliver millions in the next decade. This unprecedented data volume can produce the required precision to unambiguously test concordance cosmology which could represent a monumental shift in our understanding of dark energy and its role in cosmic history. However, extracting a pure SN Ia sample with accurate redshifts for such a large dataset will be a challenge. Specifically, spectroscopic classification will not be possible for the vast majority of discovered objects, and only ~25% will have spectroscopic redshifts. This thesis presents a series of observational and methodological studies designed to address the questions associated with this new era of photometric SN Ia cosmology. First, we present a machine learning method for photometric classification of SNe, Supernova Classification with a COnvolutional Neural Network (SCONE). Photometric classification enables SNe with no spectroscopic information to be confidently categorized, and is a critical component of current and future analysis pipelines. SCONE achieves >99% accuracy distinguishing simulated SNe Ia from non-Ia SNe, and has been integrated into DES, LSST, and Roman analysis pipelines. We also demonstrate the efficacy of SCONE on early-time photometric classification, which will be vital for optimal allocation of spectroscopic resources. We show that SCONE can distinguish between 6 SN types with 75% accuracy on the night of initial discovery, comparable to results in the literature for full-phase SNe. Next, we study current methods for estimating SN Ia redshifts and propose a machine learning alternative that uses SN photometry alone to extract redshift information. Most SNe Ia inherit redshift information from their host galaxy, but the process of matching SNe to the correct host galaxy can be challenging. We systematically analyze the impact of incorrect redshifts from host galaxy mismatch on 5 years of DES SN data, and conclude that improved host matching or redshift estimation methods can reduce our systematic errors by ~10%. In response to this finding, we present a SN photometry-only method for estimating redshifts independent of host galaxy information, Photo-zSNthesis. We show that Photo-zSNthesis redshift estimates are accurate to within 2% across the full redshift range of LSST, a first in the literature. Finally, we focus on the robustness of machine learning (ML) algorithms for real-world and scientific applications. ML models generalize poorly beyond their training set and often experience severe performance degradation when deployed on new data. We demonstrate a general method for improving robustness that achieves new state-of-the-art results on astronomical object classification, wildlife identification, and tumor detection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmological quantum chromodynamics, neutron diffusion, and the production of primordial heavy elements

A simple one-dimensional model is used to describe the evolution of neutron density before and during nucleosynthesis in a high-entropy bubble left over from the cosmic quark-hadron phase transition. It is shown why cosmic nucleosynthesis in such a neutron-rich environment produces a surfeit of elements heavier than lithium. Analytical and numerical techniques are used to estimate the abundances of carbon, nitrogen, and heavier elements up to Ne-22. A high-density neutron-rich region produces enough primordial N-14 to be observed in stellar atmospheres. It shown that very heavy elements may be created in a cosmological r-process; the neutron exposure in the neutron-rich regions is large enough for the Ne-22 to trigger a catastrophic r-process runaway in which the quantity of heavy elements doubles in much less than an expansion time due to fission cycling. A primordial abundance of r-process elements is predicted to appear as an excess of rare earth elements in extremely metal-poor stars.

Applegate, J. H.↗

New constraints on warm dark matter from the Lyman- α forest power spectrum

The forest of Lyman-α absorption lines detected in the spectra of distant quasars encodes information on the nature and properties of dark matter and the thermodynamics of diffuse baryonic material. Its main observable—the 1D flux power spectrum (FPS)—should exhibit a suppression on small scales and an enhancement on large scales in warm dark matter (WDM) cosmologies compared to standard Λ⁢CDM. Here, we present an unprecedented suite of 1080 high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulations run with the graphics processing unit-accelerated code cholla to study the evolution of the Lyman-α forest under a wide range of physically motivated gas thermal histories along with different free-streaming lengths of WDM thermal relics in the early Universe. A statistical comparison of synthetic data with the forest FPS measured down to the smallest velocity scales ever probed at redshifts 4.0≲z≲5.2 [E. Boera et al., Revealing reionization with the thermal history of the intergalactic medium: New constraints from the Ly⁢α flux power spectrum, Astrophys. J. 872, 101 (2019)] yields a lower-limit m WDM >3.1 keV (95% C.L.) for the WDM particle mass and constrains the amplitude and spectrum of the photoheating and photoionizing background produced by star-forming galaxies and active galactic nuclei at these redshifts. Interestingly, our Bayesian inference analysis appears to weakly favor WDM models with a peak likelihood value at the thermal relic mass of m WDM =4.5 keV. In conclusion, we find that the suppression of the FPS from free-streaming saturates at k≳0.1 s km -1 because of peculiar velocity smearing, and this saturated suppression combined with a slightly lower gas temperature provides a moderately better fit to the observed small-scale FPS for WDM cosmologies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The HalfDome multi-survey cosmological simulations: N-body simulations

Upcoming cosmological surveys have the potential to reach groundbreaking discoveries on multiple fronts, including the neutrino mass, dark energy, and inflation. Most of the key science goals require the joint analysis of datasets from multiple surveys to break parameter degeneracies and calibrate systematics. To realize such analyses, a large set of mock simulations that realistically model correlated observables is required. In this paper we present the N-body component of the HalfDome cosmological simulations, designed for the joint analysis of Stage-IV cosmological surveys, such as Rubin LSST, Euclid, SPHEREx, Roman, DESI, PFS, Simons Observatory, CMB-S4, and LiteBIRD. Our 300TB initial data release includes full-sky lightcones and halo catalogs between z = 0–4 for 11 fixed cosmology realizations, as well as an additional run with local primordial non-Gaussianity (f NL = 20). The simulations evolve 61443 particles in a 3.75 h -1 Gpc box, reaching a minimum halo mass of ∼6 × 1012 h -1 M ⊙ and maximum scale of k ∼ h Mpc-1. Our data is publicly available: instructions to access the data and plans for future data releases can be found at https://halfdomesims.github.io.

Bayer, Adrian E↗

Galaxy Size and Rotation Curve Diversity in ΛCDM with Baryons

The observed rotation curves of dwarf galaxies exhibit significant diversity at fixed halo mass, challenging galaxy formation within the cold dark matter (CDM) model. Previous cosmological galaxy formation simulations with baryonic physics fail to reproduce the full diversity of rotation curves, suggesting that there is a flaw in baryonic feedback models, observational bias, or that an alternative to CDM must be invoked. In this work, we use the Marvelous Massive Dwarf zoom-in simulations, a suite of high-resolution dwarf simulations with M 200 ∼ 10 10 –10 11 M ⊙ and M * ∼ 10 7 –10 9 M ⊙ , designed to target the mass range where the galaxy rotation curve diversity is maximized, i.e., between and 100 km s −1 . We add to this a set of low-mass galaxies from the Marvel Dwarf Zoom Volumes to extend the galaxy mass range to lower values. Our fiducial star formation and feedback models produce simulated dwarfs with a broader range of rotation curve shapes, similar to observations. These simulations both create dark matter cores via baryonic feedback, reproducing the slower-rising rotation curves, while also allowing for compact galaxies and steeply rising rotation curves. Our simulated dwarfs also reproduce the observed size–M * relation, including scatter, producing both extended and compact dwarfs for the first time in simulated field dwarfs. However, the slowly rising and high baryon mass fraction, as well as the steeply rising and low baryon mass fraction, remain missing. We explore star formation and feedback models and conclude that previous simulations may have had feedback that was too strong to produce compact dwarfs.

Cruz, Akaxia [Flatiron Institute, New York, NY (Un↗

Cosmic Signatures of Fundamental Physics (Final Technical Report)

Cosmology is the study of the history of the Universe. Major topics of current cosmology research include the nature of the dark energy which today is causing the Universe to accelerate, and the nature of cosmic inflation which is our best theory of the very early evolution of the Universe. Each of these topics can be explored with modern cosmological data, and rely on our theories of fundamental physics to operate. Research supported by this grant has led to advances in all these areas. We developed specific models of cosmic inflation and explored potential observations signatures. We explored observational constraints on the number of dimensions of space, which in certain modern theories can take in different values, and developed the specific “brane theories” of dark energy. The possibility that novel quantum effects (“quantum entanglement”) during cosmic inflation could lead to interesting observable phenomena was also explored.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Structure in gamma ray burst time profiles: Correlations with other observables

One of the current debates raging in the world of gamma-ray burst physics is whether the sources of these enigmatic bursts arise from a single or from multiple distributions. Several authors contend that the histograms of GRB observables imply the latter. The two most-likely candidate components are galactic and cosmological. For example, some researchers claim that a dip in the V/V max distribution is a result of such a two-component source distribution. Others have used a parameter called the 'burst variability' calculated by dividing the maximum count rate on the 64-msec timescale by that from the 1024-msec timescale to show that a correlation of this parameter with bursts brightness implies a two-component model. This method has met vigorous criticism. We have developed two parameters that measure the variability or structure in the time profiles of BATSE gamma-ray bursts. Both parameters ('structure' and 'spike height') are based on the statistics of 'runs up' and 'runs down.' In short, the structure parameter is the observed number of runs (at several lengths) minus the number expected in a chance distribution. The 'spike height' is the sum of all run heights minus the expected sum. These two are straight-forward to calculate, robust, and measure the variability over the complete profile--not just at the peak. We have applied this algorithm to the profiles of 156 GRB's. In this paper we present graphs of the two parameters as functions of the following: (1) burst duration, (2) burst hardness ratio, (3) V/V max, (4) source galactic longitude, and (5) source galactic latitude. We seek correlations as well as groupings in the data that might indicate a multi-component source distribution.

Lestrade, John Patrick↗

Modified gravity constraints from the full shape modeling of clustering measurements from DESI 2024

We present cosmological constraints on deviations from general relativity (GR) from the first-year of clustering observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) in combination with other available datasets including the CMB data from Planck with CMB-lensing from Planck and ACT, BBN constraints on the physical baryon density, the galaxy weak lensing and clustering from DESY3 and supernova data from DESY5. We first consider the μ(a,k)–Σ(a,k) modified gravity (MG) parameterization (as well as η(a,k)) in a ΛCDM and a w 0 w a CDM cosmological backgrounds. Using a functional form for time-only evolution gives μ 0 = 0.11 +0.44 -0.54 from DESI(FS+BAO)+BBN and a wide prior on n s . Using DESI(FS+BAO)+CMB+DESY3+DESY5-SN, we obtain μ 0 = 0.05 ± 0.22 and Σ 0 = 0.008 ± 0.045 and similarly μ 0 = 0.02 +0.19 -0.24 and η 0 = 0.09 +0.36 -0.60 , in an ΛCDM background. In w 0 w a CDM we obtain μ 0 = -0.24 +0.32 -0.28 and Σ 0 = 0.006 ± 0.043, consistent with GR, and we still find a preference of the data for a dynamical dark energy with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. Using functional dependencies in both time and scale gives μ 0 and Σ 0 with a same level of precision as above but other scale MG parameters remain hard to constrain. We then move to binned parameterizations in a ΛCDM background starting with two bins in redshift and obtain, μ 1 = 1.02 ± 0.13, μ 2 = 1.04 ± 0.11, Σ 1 = 1.021 ± 0.029 and Σ 2 = 1.022 +0.027 -0.023 , all consistent with the unity value of GR in the binning formalism. We then extend the analysis to combine two bins in redshift and two in scale giving 8 MG parameters that we find all consistent with GR. We note that we find here that the tension reported in previous studies about Σ 0 being inconsistent with GR when using Planck PR3 data goes away when we use the recent LoLLiPoP+HiLLiPoP likelihoods. As noted in previous studies, this seems to indicate that the tension is indeed related to the CMB lensing anomaly in PR3 which is also resolved when using the recent likelihoods. We then constrain the class of Horndeski theory in the effective field theory of dark energy approach. We consider both EFT-basis and α-basis in the analysis. Assuming a power law parameterization for the EFT function Ω, which controls non-minimal coupling, we obtain Ω 0 = 0.012 +0.001 -0.012 and s 0 = 0.996 +0.54 -0.20 from the combination of DESI(FS+BAO)+DESY5SN+CMB in a ΛCDM background, which are consistent with GR. Similar results are obtained when using the α-basis and assuming no-braiding (α B = 0) giving c M < 1.14 at 95% CL in a ΛCDM background, also in agreement with GR. However, we see a mild yet consistent indication for c B > 0 when α B is allowed to vary which will require further study to determine whether this is due to systematics or new physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

The 15 yr pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Measurement of the CMB E-mode Angular Power Spectrum at Subdegree Scales from 670 Square Degrees of POLARBEAR Data

In this work, we report a measurement of the E-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data taken from 2014 July to 2016 December with the POLARBEAR experiment. We reach an effective polarization map noise level of 32 μK-arcmin across an observation area of 670 square degrees. We measure the EE power spectrum over the angular multipole range 500 ≤ ℓ < 3000, tracing the third to seventh acoustic peaks with high sensitivity. The statistical uncertainty on E-mode bandpowers is ~2.3 μK 2 at ℓ ~ 1000, with a systematic uncertainty of 0.5 mK 2 . Furthermore, the data are consistent with the standard ΛCDM cosmological model with a probability-to-exceed of 0.38. We combine recent CMB E-mode measurements and make inferences about cosmological parameters in ΛCDM as well as in extensions to ΛCDM. Adding the ground-based CMB polarization measurements to the Planck data set reduces the uncertainty on the Hubble constant by a factor of 1.2 to H0 = 67.20 ±0.57 km s -1 Mpc -1 . When allowing the number of relativistic species (Neff ) to vary, we find N eff = 2.94 ±0.16, which is in good agreement with the standard value of 3.046. Instead allowing the primordial helium abundance (Y He ) to vary, the data favor Y He = 0.248 ±0.012. This is very close to the expectation of 0.2467 from big bang nucleosynthesis. When varying both Y He and N eff , we find N eff = 2.70 ±0.26 and Y He = 0.262 ±0.015.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A microscopic realization of dS$_3$

We propose a precise duality between pure de Sitter quantum gravity in 2+1 2 + 1 dimensions and a double-scaled matrix integral. This duality unfolds in two distinct aspects. First, by carefully quantizing the gravitational phase space, we arrive at a novel proposal for the quantum state of the universe at future infinity. We compute cosmological correlators of massive particles in the universe specified by this wavefunction. Integrating these correlators over the metric at future infinity yields gauge-invariant observables, which are identified with the string amplitudes of the complex Liouville string [S. Collier et al., arXiv: 2409.17246]. This establishes a direct connection between integrated cosmological correlators and the resolvents of the matrix integral dual to the complex Liouville string, thereby demonstrating one aspect of the dS _3 3 /matrix integral duality. The second aspect concerns the cosmological horizon of the dS static patch and the Gibbons-Hawking entropy it is conjectured to encode. We show that this entropy can be reproduced exactly by counting the entries of the matrix.

Collier, Scott (ORCID:0000000286476653)↗