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At least 883 records · Page 49

Building an AI-enhanced modeling framework to address multiscale predictability challenges

Focal Area(s): Build an AI-enhanced modeling framework that integrates the three focus areas in the solicitation. Science Challenge: The 4M-2N complexities (Multiscale, Multiphysics, Multibody, Multidimension, Non-linearity, and Non-Gaussianality) of atmospheric aerosol-cloud-precipitation-turbulence-radiation system poses physical and computational challenges to further advance predictive models; We plan to address the challenges by developing an AI-enhanced modeling framework that facilitates automated calibration and improvement of subgrid parameterizations, enhance data assimilation of measurements to improve initial and boundary conditions used to drive the physical model, and optimally blends data-driven and physics-based forecasting models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive resolution simulation of an atomistic protein in MARTINI water

We present an adaptive resolution simulation of protein G in multiscale water. We couple atomistic water around the protein with mesoscopic water, where four water molecules are represented with one coarse-grained bead, farther away. We circumvent the difficulties that arise from coupling to the coarse-grained model via a 4-to-1 molecule coarse-grain mapping by using bundled water models, i.e., we restrict the relative movement of water molecules that are mapped to the same coarse-grained bead employing harmonic springs. The water molecules change their resolution from four molecules to one coarse-grained particle and vice versa adaptively on-the-fly. Having performed 15 ns long molecular dynamics simulations, we observe within our error bars no differences between structural (e.g., root-mean-squared deviation and fluctuations of backbone atoms, radius of gyration, the stability of native contacts and secondary structure, and the solvent accessible surface area) and dynamical properties of the protein in the adaptive resolution approach compared to the fully atomistically solvated model. Our multiscale model is compatible with the widely used MARTINI force field and will therefore significantly enhance the scope of biomolecular simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗

Assimilation of Multiscale Data into Multifidelity Biogeochemical Models (Final Report)

Quantitative predictions of subsurface processes rely on computational models that capture, with different degrees of fidelity, complex interactions between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Molecular- and pore-scale models provide a high-fidelity representation of these processes but are impractical at the field scale. Reduced complexity (e.g., field-scale or data-driven) models sacrifice some degree of fidelity in favor of computational efficiency. Uncertainty and assimilation of data into model predictions, pose a question of model selection: Given a significant difference in computational cost, can a lower-fidelity model be preferable to its higher-fidelity counterpart? Since a predictive model must be computable in reasonable time it has to operate at the field scale, with molecular- and pore-scale data (obtained either from simulations or measurements) determining both the model's structure and parameters. Availability of such multi-resolution data raises a question hitherto undressed in hydrogeology: Can a coarse model dynamically ``learn'' its own structure (e.g., adjust the reaction pathways in its transport module) as more fine-scale data become available during simulations? Our results in multifidelity simulations, data assimilation, and machine learning led us to hypothesize that the answer to these questions is ``yes''. The overarching goal of this project was to confirm this hypothesis by developing scalable, computationally efficient tools for assimilation of data into multiscale models, in which fine-scale data and simulations dynamically inform and autonomously modify coarse-scale models. Our research led to nine manuscripts, three of which have been published and the other six are currently under review.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Solvation Thermodynamics of Solutes in Water and Ionic Liquids Using the Multiscale Solvation-Layer Interface Condition Continuum Model

We report molecular assembly processes are generally driven by thermodynamic properties in solutions. Atomistic modeling can be very helpful in designing and understanding complex systems, except that bulk solvent is very inefficient to treat explicitly as discrete molecules. The SLIC/CDC multiscale model combines continuum solvent electrostatics based on the solvent layer interface condition (SLIC) with statistical thermodynamic models for hydrogen bonding and nonpolar modes: cavity formation, dispersion interactions, combinatorial mixing (CDC). The SLIC/CDC model predicts Gibbs energies of solvation for a database of 500 solutes in water with average accuracy better than 1 kcal/mol both for experimental measurements and for explicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulations. The separate SLIC/CDC energy mode values agree quantitatively with those computed from explicit-solvent molecular dynamics. The SLIC/SASA multiscale model combines the SLIC continuum electrostatic model with the solvent accessible surface area (SASA) nonpolar energy mode. The SLIC/SASA model predicts Gibbs energies of solvation with better than 1.4 kcal/mol average accuracy in aqueous systems and better than 1.6 kcal/mol average accuracy in ionic liquids. Both models predict solvation entropies, and are the first implicit-solvation models capable of predicting solvation heat capacities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Calibration of RAFM Micromechanical Model for Creep Using Bayesian Optimization for Functional Output

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multimechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on Fe(8–9)%Cr are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600°C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework (Huang et al., 2021, “Bayesian optimization of functional output in inverse problems,” Optim. Eng., 22, pp. 2553–2574). Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. In conclusion, validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies (Final Report)

The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale multiphysics and multidomain models—Flexibility and rigidity

The emerging complexity of large macromolecules has led to challenges in their full scale theoretical description and computer simulation. Multiscale multiphysics and multidomain models have been introduced to reduce the number of degrees of freedom while maintaining modeling accuracy and achieving computational efficiency. A total energy functional is constructed to put energies for polar and nonpolar solvation, chemical potential, fluid flow, molecular mechanics, and elastic dynamics on an equal footing. The variational principle is utilized to derive coupled governing equations for the above mentioned multiphysical descriptions. Among these governing equations is the Poisson-Boltzmann equation which describes continuum electrostatics with atomic charges. The present work introduces the theory of continuum elasticity with atomic rigidity (CEWAR). The essence of CEWAR is to formulate the shear modulus as a continuous function of atomic rigidity. As a result, the dynamics complexity of a macromolecular system is separated from its static complexity so that the more time-consuming dynamics is handled with continuum elasticity theory, while the less time-consuming static analysis is pursued with atomic approaches. We propose a simple method, flexibility-rigidity index (FRI), to analyze macromolecular flexibility and rigidity in atomic detail. The construction of FRI relies on the fundamental assumption that protein functions, such as flexibility, rigidity, and energy, are entirely determined by the structure of the protein and its environment, although the structure is in turn determined by all the interactions. As such, the FRI measures the topological connectivity of protein atoms or residues and characterizes the geometric compactness of the protein structure. As a consequence, the FRI does not resort to the interaction Hamiltonian and bypasses matrix diagonalization, which underpins most other flexibility analysis methods. FRI's computational complexity is of O(N{sup 2}) at most, where N is the number of atoms or residues, in contrast to O(N{sup 3}) for Hamiltonian based methods. We demonstrate that the proposed FRI gives rise to accurate prediction of protein B-Factor for a set of 263 proteins. We show that a parameter free FRI is able to achieve about 95% accuracy of the parameter optimized FRI. An interpolation algorithm is developed to construct continuous atomic flexibility functions for visualization and use with CEWAR.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multiscale electro-chemo-mechanical model of high-capacity amorphous silicon anode material in sodium-ion batteries

The growing interest in sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) is fueled by their abundant resources and environmentally friendly nature, with amorphous silicon (a-Si) emerging as a promising anode material for enhancing capacity. However, the key challenge lies in sustaining reversible capacity during cycling. Here, in this work, we developed a multiscale electrochemical model incorporating an a-Si anode to elucidate the performance parameters of SIBs. Additionally, we integrated an electro-chemo-mechanical model at the particle level to capture stress generation, an essential factor in the degradation of high-capacity electrodes. Unlike existing models, our approach accounts for large-deformation chemo-mechanics at the particle scale and includes simulations under varying charge rates to explore multiscale behavior. The results reveal that coupled sodiation significantly prolongs complete cycling times and influences discharge dynamics, indicating that neglecting this coupling leads to an underestimation of actual capacity. Furthermore, we observed pronounced polarization effects at higher charge rates, resulting in heterogeneous stress distributions across the anode. With the identification of critical failure parameters for both active particles and binder materials, offering novel insights for mitigating degradation in high-capacity electrode systems.

Amorphous silicon anode↗

Increased light-use efficiency in northern terrestrial ecosystems indicated by CO 2 and greening observations: INCREASE IN NH LIGHT USE EFFICIENCY

Observations show an increasing amplitude in the seasonal cycle of CO2 (ASC) north of 45°N of 56 ± 9.8% over the last 50 years and an increase in vegetation greenness of 7.5–15% in high northern latitudes since the 1980s. However, the causes of these changes remain uncertain. Historical simulations from terrestrial biosphere models in the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project are compared to the ASC and greenness observations, using the TM3 atmospheric transport model to translate surface fluxes into CO2 concentrations. We find that the modeled change in ASC is too small but the mean greening trend is generally captured. Modeled increases in greenness are primarily driven by warming, whereas ASC changes are primarily driven by increasing CO2. We suggest that increases in ecosystem-scale light use efficiency (LUE) have contributed to the observed ASC increase but are underestimated by current models. We highlight potential mechanisms that could increase modeled LUE.

Thomas, Rebecca T.↗

Machine-Learning-Based Multiscale Methods for 3D Modelling of Granular Materials by Incorporating History-Dependent State Variables

Over the past decades, the prevalence of machine learning (ML) methods has made the development of ML-based constitutive models for granular materials undoubtedly a popular subject. Numerous studies have been made to feature the loading path or history-dependent stress-strain response of granular media using neural networks. In this work, a novel finite element method (FEM)–ML multiscale approach was developed by incorporating internal variables to improve the simulation accuracy of 3D history-dependent granular materials for the first time. To this end, a surrogate constitutive model based on the single-step-based multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network was used to replace representative volume element (RVE) simulations conducted by the discrete element method (DEM) in the multiscale FEM–DEM approach. Although the prediction principle of the MLP aligns with the FEM algorithm, artificially added internal variables are required to differentiate the loading history. To address this issue, history variables associated with the Frobenius norm are proposed to be fed into the MLP coupled with the strain tensor to extract the history-dependent behaviour of granular assemblies. The developed FEM–ML approach was demonstrated in 3D conventional triaxial compression (CTC) simulations. Compared to the multiscale FEM–DEM approach, the proposed FEM–ML method exhibits a significantly improved computational efficiency.

granular materials↗

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2 ) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2 ) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation is more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Representation of Soil NO Emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.0.2

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The parameterization considers soil parameters, meteorology, land use, and mineral nitrogen (N) availability to estimate NO emissions. We incorporate daily year-specific fertilizer data from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agricultural model to replace the annual generic data of the initial parameterization, and use a 12km resolution soil biome map over the continental USA. CMAQ modeling for July 2011 shows slight differences in model performance in simulating fine particulate matter and ozone from Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) sites and NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals. We also simulate how the change in soil NO emissions scheme affects the expected O3 response to projected emissions reductions.

remote sensing↗

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and simulation of high dimensional stochastic multiscale PDE systems at the exascale

Predictive Modeling of multiscale and Multiphysics systems requires accurate data driven characterization of the input uncertainties, and understanding of how they propagate across scales and alter the final solution. This project develops a rigorous mathematical framework and scalable uncertainty quantification algorithms to efficiently construct realistic low dimensional input models, and surrogate low complexity systems for the analysis, design, and control of physical systems represented by multiscale stochastic PDEs. The work can be applied to many areas including physical and biological processes, from climate modeling to systems biology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TPS Certification by Analysis: Model-Driven Characterization of Properties and Failure in Woven Thermal Protection Systems

Woven, ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials provide a robust option for aggressive (re)entries and thus have been baselined for the upcoming Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission’s Earth Entry System (EES). The reliability requirements for MSR-EES necessitate understanding of material property variability, which could be significant given the complex structure and anisotropic nature of properties in TPS weaves, as well as the response to potential impact with micrometeoroids or orbital debris during the EES re-entry. The TPS Certification by Analysis effort within the Entry Systems Modeling project seeks to provide computational models and analyses that support the certification against such material-based risks. For the present talk, focus will be given to the characterization of baseline woven TPS material properties and mechanical failure limits, which entails (1) use of computational techniques (e.g., machine learning) to interpret computed tomography images of the weave to generate representative structural models and (2) application of multiscale material modeling approaches to characterize thermomechanical and failure properties.

Justin B. Haskins↗

A review of microwave-assisted process intensified multiphase reactors

Microwaves provide alternative heating and allow process intensification due to their rapid, volumetric, and selective nature. Recognizing the central role of multiphase reactors in chemical industry, a recent surge in employing microwaves is observed. We review the recent experimental and modeling investigations of microwave heating of multiphase reactors with emphasis on chemical engineering applications. Here we demonstrate that there is accumulated evidence for improved performance via microwave heating and a clear opportunity for further process intensification. In most of the cases, this improved performance stems from a temperature gradient between two phases. We discuss the ongoing debate on the mechanism by which microwaves affect chemical processes exacerbated by the inability of measuring the temperature distribution in a microwave cavity. We outline recent progress in this direction in monolith reactors and needs for future work. We underscore the lack of detailed modeling and simulation tools even for single-phase systems and emphasize the imperative for multiscale predictive modeling to bridge the experimental-modeling gap. Promising results are shown by a few recently published modeling studies that can predict the experimental measurements in complex multiphase reactors. A combination of experimental and modeling tools can provide a comprehensive picture of the microwave multiphase reactors as well as a means toward scale-up and optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Testing Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Models Generated With Stochastic Stress Drop

In this study we investigate the performance of rupture dynamics modeling using heterogenous stress for a M6.5 crustal earthquake on a strike slip vertical fault. In our simulations we used heterogenous stress drop models with correlated stochastic perturbations following the work of Pitarka et al. (2009). The stress model with multiscale variability is designed to accommodate high-stress drop asperity areas and small-scale spatial stress variations. The stress drop and size of asperities are estimated following the IM2011 (Irikura and Miyake, 2011) recipe. In our spontaneous rupture modeling we use a linear slip weakening friction law, with depth depend strength excess, dynamic stress drop and slip weakening distance Dc. Our strategy in preparing the model parameters with vertical and lateral variability is in agreement with observations of earthquake rupture that have confirmed the existence of a shallow weak rupture zone consisting of ductile crustal material, located in the upper 4 km of the crust, and brittle seismogenic zone, underlying the weak zone. The primary objective of our study is to develop a procedure for preparing dynamic rupture models with multiscale variability, and validate spontaneous rupture modeling of strike-slip faults by comparing the resulting rupture kinematics and near-fault ground motion with empirical models for this type of rupture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗