LANL HOSS Modeling Capabilities: General Briefing [Slides]
The Hybrid Optimization Software Suite (HOSS) modeling framework and capabilities are described.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
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Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics
PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
RBR-ACES Validation Activities [Slides]
The goal of our validation activities is to provide sufficient confidence in the RBR modeling framework to allow quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of a deployable RBR system.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) Report
The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS).
42 ENGINEERING↗
Evaluating the Interactions Between Variable Renewable Energy and Diurnal Storage
Cost declines and growing deployment of photovoltaic (PV), wind, and storage have led to increasing interest in the potential interactions of these three technologies as their role in the power system grows. In this work we enhance a national-scale capacity expansion model to evaluate how PV, wind, and storage interact in the evolution of the power system. Importantly, the modeling framework captures interactions in both investments and operations. Through this work we identify significant synergies between PV and storage. Scenarios with more PV always have more storage, and scenarios with more storage always have more PV. This synergy is due to the diurnal alignment of PV generation with 4-8 hour storage, and to the ability of PV to narrow system peaks to allow shorter-duration storage to serve as a peaking resource. Interactions between wind and storage are less pronounced, though we do observe that longer-duration storage resources appear to provide greater value for wind.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report
The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS).
42 ENGINEERING↗
Wood Decomposition: Understanding Processes Regulating Carbon Transfer to Soil Carbon Pools Using FACE Wood at Multiple Scales
Dead wood comprises approximately 20% of forest biomass. While it is widely recognized for its role in ecosystem functions relative to habitat and nutrient cycling, there are considerable uncertainties associated with its role in the forest carbon (C) cycle. The principal uncertainty is whether dead wood contributes to the soil C pool. With little supporting evidence, the presumption is that C in wood is respired back to the atmosphere through decomposition processes. The inability to attribute forest soil C to its source components has been a barrier to addressing this important forest carbon cycle question. The U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment produced wood that has a distinct δ 13 C signature that can be used to trace its fate through organic matter decomposition processes. Using two hardwood species (aspen, birch) from the Rhinelander FACE site and pine from the Duke FACE site, the FACE Wood Decomposition Experiment (FWDE) was established in 2011 to provide the foundation for addressing wood decomposition and its associated processes at the continental scale. Plots were installed on nine experimental forests representing a range in bioclimatic forest conditions within the continental U.S. Each identical plot has logs of the three species incubating on the soil surface and pine logs suspended in the air, representing standing dead wood. Abiotic conditions are monitored continuously, and soil and forest conditions characterized. Logs on the sites have been measured every two years to assess decay. This project was initiated in 2016 with specific objectives to: (a) determine whether dead wood C contributes to the soil C pool, (b) assess the fungal community composition mediating the decay, (c) assess the interactions of termites with microbial decay, and (d) develop a mechanistic model to simulate wood decomposition. The principal field sampling was conducted in 2017; correspondingly, the results reported here represent six years of decomposition. Wood decomposition varied from 13 to 75 % loss across the bioclimatic gradient. Sites in the southeastern U.S. coastal plain and piedmont had fastest decomposition rates for each of the species. In contrast sites in the Rocky Mountains had the slowest decay rates, which were associated with cold temperatures. Standing deadwood decomposes at a much slower rate than logs on the soil surface; a response due to differences in wood moisture content. Wood carbon was measured in the mineral soil across each of the sites; accordingly, this is the first study to affirm that a portion of the wood C does become part of the soil C pool. Averaged across the FWDE sites, approximately 1.4% of the soil C in the upper 10 cm of the mineral soil directly beneath the log was derived from the deadwood; within 50 cm of the log, wood C accounted for an average of 2.1%. These results demonstrate that the contribution of deadwood to the soil C pool is a soil volume surrounding the log; and it’s likely a larger volume than what we sampled. We also hypothesized that there would be more wood C in the mineral soil when termites were present. However, that hypothesis wasn’t supported by measurements on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion (SEF-TX) plots under FACE logs that incubated for 6 years. Across all the sites, the majority of the wood C was transferred to the atmosphere. Approximately 7,000 fungal species were sequenced. The fungal communities were different among each of the sites suggesting local colonization; interestingly, within sites the three species also exhibited differences in fungal community composition. White rot was the dominant fungal form in pine and hardwood, which yields less lignin in the wood residue. Brown rot occurred in approximately 20% of the pine and aspen logs, and it did not occur in birch logs. The occurrence of brown rot was only weakly correlated to site factors. We conducted two additional experiments to assess the effects of termites on wood decomposition and the associated interactions with the fungal community. Pine and birch logs were incubated on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion plots in upland and riparian settings. There was no difference in decay between areas where termites were able colonize and plots where they had been excluded. Highly variable foraging by termites was a primary contributor the result. Correspondingly, fungal communities did not vary on logs incubated among the two treatments, but they did reflect site and species differences. The second experiment was conducted on each of the nine FWDE sites where pine and birch wood blocks were incubated for two years with and without a wrapping designed to exclude termites and other arthropods. The effects of termites on wood decomposition could be confirmed on two of the four sites known to have subterranean termites. On the two southeastern sites, termites contributed approximately 8% to mass loss in pine blocks over two years. A major factor clouding the role of termites in wood decomposition is the inability to assess the time, duration, and intensity of the foraging with the logs. Another uncertainty is related to whether a piece of wood will be foraged. A process-based wood decomposition model was developed representing biological processes mediated by fungi, bacteria, termites, beetles, as well as physical and chemical processes. The Coarse Wood Decomposition Model (CWDM) was parameterized based on a thorough review of the literature and it was validated using data from the FWDE. In the initial setup, the model considers softwoods and hardwoods groups, as opposed to individual species. Sensitivity analyses incorporating climate data from 89 locations in North America demonstrated that CWDM was stable from the tropics to the boreal zone. Model calibration and validation showed it to perform very well. The CWDM is poised for additional testing with subsequent FWDE data as well as other data sets, and it is available for incorporation into forest biogeochemical models or DOEs Earth System Modeling framework.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dimensionally Reduced Model for Rapid and Accurate Prediction of Gas Saturation, Pressure, and Brine Production in a CO 2 Storage Application: Case Study Using the SACROC Field as Part of SMART Task 5
This technical report presents work conducted by the sub surface analysis team of the Strategic Systems Analysis & Engineering group at NETL for Task 5 of SMART Phase 1. This study involved the development of deep learning models for CO 2 geologic storage that are capable of accurate prediction of spatio-temporal outputs of CO 2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in three dimensional space over a storage operation's injection and post-injection timeframes. The model framework involves ensembling multi-layer encoder networks that provide dimesionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction This approach offers a means to maximize training time efficiency, reduce computational memory burden, and minimize prediction turnaround.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Initial Investigation of Coupled Electron-Photon Transport with SCEPTRE and RAPTURE (Rev.1.1)
The SCEPTRE1 code models coupled photon and electron transport in material media using discrete ordinates methods. The code can use different solvers in 1D and 3D in parallel, promising users the ability to run problems that are significant both in physics and computational scale. One capability that is perhaps unique at this time in the NNSA complex is SCEPTRE’s coupled photon– electron transport physics in a discrete ordinates approach. For example, incident x–rays can generate a significant electron population, whose transport can be simulated within the same code. In this context, fully–coupled means that photons can produce electrons and electrons can produce photons; uncoupled or no–coupling means photons do not produce electrons. Partial–coupling, an intermediate option in which photons can produce electrons but electrons do not produce photons, is not considered in the present work. The MCNP code can treat this physics with a Monte Carlo approach. MCNP should be viewed as complementary to SCEPTRE in both computational method (Monte Carlo versus discrete ordinates) as well as data libraries. SCEPTRE and MCNP should provide important checks on each other, especially from complementary modeling frameworks of a S n (discrete ordinates) mesh based method versus Monte Carlo particle based method. In order to learn more about SCEPTRE, and how it might inform engineering work at the Laboratory, we used it to carry out a set of initial studies. This was a series of 1D simulations of photon beams hitting Aluminum slabs. Our studies mainly used SCEPTRE directly, and made little use of the closely associated RAPTURE code (more on this below). The goals of these studies were first, to familiarize ourselves with operating the code, and second, to begin to assess the importance of coupled electron–photon transport. To support these studies, we began to develop a set of scripts to initialize inputs, run tools, process outputs, and plot results. An initial version of these scripts has been committed to the Lightning workflow repository. This memo relates the results of those studies.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Pulse Strengthened and Laser Edge Sealed Vacuum Insulation Glazing
A scalable, low-cost processing strategy for glass strengthening and sealing is proposed to improve the thermal performance of insulating glass units and develop innovative window technologies. In this project, a combination of large area photonic processing, additive manufacturing, and laser encapsulation techniques is reported to realize a vacuum glazing technology to meet the cost, performance, reliability, and throughput demands. A modeling framework for evaluating the mechanical and thermal response was established to verify the structural deformation and thermal conductance. Micro-size glass frits in printing ink and a continuous-wave laser curing were employed to allow the formation of a hermetic bonding layer and led to improvement of glass edge sealing. Various sealing parameters, including laser traveling speed, spot diameter, and laser power were optimized. The water seepage and mechanical strength of the resulting glass-to-glass bonding were examined as well. These results showcase the development of a practical vacuum insulating glazing with several unique features through a combination of photonic processing, laser encapsulation, and additive manufacturing.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY2022
The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), test information management system (TIMS), and [WAVES] Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).
42 ENGINEERING↗
The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 2. Study Approach
The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter describes the LA100 study approach, including the modeling framework and scenarios.
100% Renewable↗
TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report: FY22
The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package, is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are relevant to the current and future stockpile. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS). Additionally, this work is being used to test a newly available framework in W-13, Weapons Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling
The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY23
The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), test information management system (TIMS), and [WAVES] Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).
42 ENGINEERING↗
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Key Drivers and Climate Impacts (Final Technical Report)
The goal of this project was to investigate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) using a hierarchical modeling framework to advance our process-level understanding on the respective roles of, and the feedback between, the key drivers of the AMV, in particular the ocean circulation associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and stochastic atmospheric forcing, primarily due to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The focus was primarily on the AMV due to natural variability, but the investigation will be extended to the possible modulation on the main characteristics of AMV under external climate forcing. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the AMV, with a special emphasis on the possible augmentation of predictability the AMV may bring to the regional weather and climate of North America, Western Europe, and the Arctic. Under this goal, we have published 15 peer-reviewed journal papers, and presented our results in more than 30 conferences over the project duration.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Energetic Particles - microturbulence interaction thrust (EP SIWG white paper)
This white paper outlines a strategic approach to Energetic Particle (EP) research, aimed at applying the results to the future burning devices such as ITER. Our goal is to deepen the understanding of the interplay between plasma background microturbulence and diverse species of energetic ions in burning plasma devices. This strategy is poised to advance our knowledge in this crucial area of fusion science, paving the way for significant breakthroughs in plasma physics and fusion energy research. We consider the confinement of energetic ions such as auxiliary heating beams, minority ions from ICRH, and fusion product alpha particles. Recent studies have underscored the potential of EP/microturbulence interaction to enhance fusion plasma performance by stabilizing microturbulence. However, it also poses risks, such as exacerbating Alfvénic eigenmode (AE) instabilities, which could compromise the sustainability of plasma discharge by causing EP losses. The interplay between EPs and background microturbulence is evident in the phenomenon of effective pitch angle scattering, a crucial aspect of the quasilinear (QL) theory. This theory is integral to developing numerically-efficient yet comprehensive and self-consistent approaches, recently employed to investigate the relaxation of energetic particle populations in the holistic modeling of fusion-grade plasmas. The primary objectives of this white paper thrust encompass a dual focus. First is that we need to delve into the mechanisms through which microturbulence engenders effective pitch angle scattering. This investigation will entail the examination of the presence of known or self-consistently predicted spectra of modes accountable for microturbulence. In these explorations, electrostatic microturbulence serves as a logical initial stride towards achieving the trust's objectives. This endeavor is anticipated to yield formulations expressing the parametric dependencies of the effective pitch angle scattering frequency on variables such as thermal plasma electron and/or ion temperatures, as well as their respective thermal conductivities. In our second objective, we aim to delve into the intricate formation of zonal flow (ZF) structures amidst the complex interplay of microturbulence and Alfvenic eigenmodes (AEs). This endeavor poses greater challenges as we seek to unravel the macroscopic manifestations influenced by microturbulence, termed as zonal structures (ZS), stemming from microturbulence-induced ZF. Drawing from this understanding, we anticipate employing a QL approach to yield comprehensive insights into the distribution function of energetic particles (EP) within phase space. This method entails resolving the dominant multidimensional phase space diffusion processes while effectively averaging over the rapid ballistic responses. Nevertheless, substantial strides remain imperative to realize a comprehensive whole-device modeling framework. This entails meticulous verification and validation exercises against experimental observations, as well as rigorous benchmarking against theoretical frameworks and numerical simulations.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
LYNM-PE1 Seismic Parameters from Borehole Log, Laboratory, and Tabletop Measurements
The goal of this work is to provide a database of quality-checked seismic parameters that can be integrated with the Geologic Framework Model (GFM) for the LYNM-PE1 (Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring – Physical Experiment 1) testbed. We integrated data from geophysical borehole logs, tabletop measurements on collected core, and laboratory measurements. We reviewed for internal consistency among each measurement type, documented the caveats of measurement conditions, and integrated lithologic logs to check the validity of outlier values. The resulting consolidated parameter tables can be used as inputs for modeling and analysis codes and are designed to interface with the GFM, which is being actively developed.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗