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DOE OSTI2022

Combined Effects of Stream Hydrology and Land Use on Basin‐Scale Hyporheic Zone Denitrification in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract Denitrification in the hyporheic zone (HZ) of river corridors is crucial to removing excess nitrogen in rivers from anthropogenic activities. However, previous modeling studies of the effectiveness of river corridors in removing excess nitrogen via denitrification were often limited to the reach‐scale and low‐order stream watersheds. We developed a basin‐scale river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin with random forest models to identify the dominant factors associated with the spatial variation of HZ denitrification. Our modeling results suggest that the combined effects of hydrologic variability in reaches and substrate availability influenced by land use are associated with the spatial variability of modeled HZ denitrification at the basin scale. Hyporheic exchange flux can explain most of spatial variation of denitrification amounts in reaches of different sizes, while among the reaches affected by different land uses, the combination of hyporheic exchange flux and stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration can explain the denitrification differences. Also, we can generalize that the most influential watershed and channel variables controlling denitrification variation are channel morphology parameters (median grain size (D50), stream slope), climate (annual precipitation and evapotranspiration), and stream DOC‐related parameters (percent of shrub area). The modeling framework in our study can serve as a valuable tool to identify the limiting factors in removing excess nitrogen pollution in large river basins where direct measurement is often infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Torque Heavy-Rare-Earth-Free Electric Motor Thermal Management

This project is part of a multi-lab Next-Generation Reliable Electric Drive Systems for Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (NEXT-DRIVE) project led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and including NREL, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Ames Laboratory that leverages research expertise and facilities of these national labs to develop tools and approaches for reducing the design and development time of new electric drive technologies for medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) and their associated costs while increasing reliability and asset utilization. The Next-Drive project aligns with the DOE's goals by introducing high-fidelity multi-physics and AI/ML-based modeling to design low-cost, highly reliable, and longer-lifetime drivetrains, aiming to achieve 25 years of progress in 5 years. The efforts of this project will focus on NEXT-DRIVE Task 4 (led by ORNL, NREL, and AMES) - developing high-fidelity modeling framework and identifying technologies enabling heavy-rare-earth-free electric motors for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to achieve 1 million miles of operation. Contrary to conventional approaches that optimize the motor for power density, the focus will be to identify motor designs that achieve the best trade-off between motor power density and durable operation. NREL tasks include development of high-fidelity motor thermal models incorporating rotor windage losses and identification, evaluation and measurement of motor interface materials in key thermal pathways. The poster summarizes NREL's accomplishments for the first half of FY 2025 and outlines future plans.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Is the Global MHD Modeling of the Magnetosphere Adequate for GIC Prediction: the May 27–28, 2017 Storm

Practical steps taken by the international community to reduce the damage to technological systems from space weather include the development of numerical models capable of real-time predictions of electromagnetic disturbances at the Earth’s surface. Here we examine the feasibility of a version of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD simulation code similar to that used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to predict the level of geomagnetic field variability, and consequently geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We consider the contribution of geomagnetic disturbances to the bursts of GIC in the electric power line of the Kola Peninsula during the May 27–28, 2017 storm and compare the observations with results of the global MHD model. During the maximal disturbance magnetic field variations at East Scandinavian stations become more irregular, as intense Pi3 pulsations are superposed on the magnetic bay. These pulsations are not quasi-sinusoidal waves like typical Pc5 pulsations, but they are rather a quasi-periodic sequence of magnetic impulses with time scales ~5–15 min. During this period with elevated Pi3 activity very high values of GIC were recorded (variations >100 A) in the electric power transmission line. The SWMF modeling reasonably well reproduces the global magnetospheric parameters, such as SYM-H index or cross-polar potential. However, the magnetic field variability dB/dt in the East Scandinavia predicted by the modeling has turned out to be more than order of magnitude less than that observed. Thus, the version of SWMF with the grid used by NOAA SWPC still cannot adequately predict for the May 27–28 event the fine structure of the storm/substorm—Pi3 geomagnetic disturbances, and consequently the magnitude of the GIC that they drive.

geomagnetically induced currents↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Contribution of z < or Approx. 6 Sources to the Spatial Coherence in the Unresolved Cosmic Near-Infrared and X-Ray Backgrounds

A spatial clustering signal has been established in Spitzer/IRAC measurements of the unresolved cosmic near-infrared background (CIB) out to large angular scales, approx. 1deg. This CIB signal, while significantly exceeding the contribution from the remaining known galaxies, was further found to be coherent at a highly statistically significant level with the unresolved soft cosmic X-ray background (CXB). This measurement probes the unresolved CXB to very faint source levels using deep near-IR source subtraction.We study contributions from extragalactic populations at low to intermediate redshifts to the measured positive cross-power signal of the CIB fluctuations with the CXB. We model the X-ray emission from active galactic nuclei (AGNs), normal galaxies, and hot gas residing in virialized structures, calculating their CXB contribution including their spatial coherence with all infrared emitting counterparts. We use a halo model framework to calculate the auto and cross-power spectra of the unresolved fluctuations based on the latest constraints of the halo occupation distribution and the biasing of AGNs, galaxies, and diffuse emission. At small angular scales (1), the 4.5microns versus 0.5-2 keV coherence can be explained by shot noise from galaxies and AGNs. However, at large angular scales (approx.10), we find that the net contribution from the modeled populations is only able to account for approx. 3% of the measured CIB×CXB cross-power. The discrepancy suggests that the CIB×CXB signal originates from the same unknown source population producing the CIB clustering signal out to approx. 1deg.

unresolved cosmic near infrared background (CIB)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhancement of effective thermal conductivity of rGO/Mg nanocomposite packed beds

Engineering thermophysical properties of metal hydrides nanocomposites is crucial for effective thermal management during hydrogen storage reactions; however, the effect of microstructure on thermal transport mechanisms is still unclear. Here, we employed an integrated experiment-modeling approach to investigate microstructural factors that determine the effective thermal conductivity of individual reduced graphene oxide-magnesium (rGO/Mg) nanocomposites and their packed bed. Here the effective thermal conductivity of the rGO/Mg nanocomposite packed bed was measured by using guarded hot-plate method under various atmospheric conditions (i.e., vacuum, Ar and He). A microstructure-aware mesoscopic modeling revealed that anisotropy of the effective thermal conductivity of individual rGO/Mg nanocomposites plays an important role in determining the effective thermal conductivity of their packed bed. The validated mesoscopic model also disclosed a nontrivial interplay between the intrinsic rGO properties and the extrinsic composite structural features. Finally, quantitative sensitivity analysis based on the modeling framework is used to provide practical engineering guidance for controlling the thermal transport within nanocomposite packed beds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Challenging conventional assumptions in PV: a high-throughput open-air approach to low-cost perovskite module production

Perovskite solar modules (PSMs) offer a promising pathway to low-cost photovoltaics, yet their commercialization is challenged by manufacturing scalability, device uniformity, additive costs, interlayer complexity, and module stability. This study introduces a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of single junction PSM's and projections for tandem perovskite-Si modules that integrate all materials and manufacturing steps, module performances, projected lifetimes, and manufacturing costs across scales. Here, we highlight an open-air manufacturing approach to fabricate all active layers of serially interconnected PSMs, including electrodes and charge transport layers, enabling high-throughput production without inert or vacuum environments. The analysis reveals two orders of magnitude throughput enhancement and cost reductions of 24% in all-open-air production, escalating to over 60% at 1 GW factory capacity compared to conventional methods. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) projections for utility-scale installations over 30 years, accounting for module replacement and recycling, demonstrate the potential to achieve the 2030 US target of $0.03 per kWh with realistic 7–11-year PSM lifetimes, outperforming incumbent silicon-based modules. Neither four terminal (4T) nor two terminal (2T) tandem-Si PSMs improve over single junction perovskite or silicon LCOE regardless of higher efficiencies at any modeled lifetime. Addressing PSM technical challenges with a cost-modeling framework guides commercialization efforts and provides a convincing pathway for challenging incumbent Si-based PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2023

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Modeling Landslide Susceptibility Over Large Regions with Fuzzy Overlay

Landslide susceptibility mapping is most effective if detailed surface and subsurface information can be combined with authoritative landslide catalogs or a deep understanding of local conditions. However, these types of homogeneous input data and catalogs are frequently not available over large areas. In this study, we model landslide susceptibility in Central America and the Caribbean islands by combining three globally available datasets and one regional dataset with fuzzy overlay. This primarily heuristic model provides the flexibility to test a range of different contributing variables and the capability to compare landslide inventories within the model framework that vary greatly in their size, spatiotemporal scope, and collection methods. We create a regional susceptibility map and evaluate its performance using receiver operating characteristics for both continuous and binned susceptibility values. This susceptibility map forms the basis for a near-real-time landslide hazard assessment system that couples susceptibility with rainfall and soil moisture triggers to estimate potential landslide activity at a regional scale. The application of this susceptibility model at the regional scale provides a foundation for transferring the methodology to other geographic areas.

Landslide↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ forest full-shape analysis

We present the validation of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest full-shape analysis. This analysis combines three-dimensional Ly$α$ forest auto-correlations and cross-correlations with quasars to extract information from both the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature and the broadband clustering signal, with primary emphasis on the Alcock-Paczynski (AP) measurement. Compared to the DESI DR1 analysis, the DR2 validation uses substantially larger and more realistic mock datasets, including CoLoRe 2LPT and AbacusSummit Ly$α$ forest simulations. The modeling framework is also improved through analytic marginalization over small scales ($<10$$h^{-1}$Mpc) and the impact of ultraviolet background fluctuations. The validation program was completed prior to unblinding and defines quantitative requirements for the cosmological parameters of interest, which are evaluated using hundreds of mock realizations. We further test the analysis through independent fits to the auto- and cross-correlations, multiple catalog splits, and a broad suite of analysis and modeling variations applied to both mocks and blinded observational data. We find that the BAO and AP parameters satisfy all validation requirements and remain stable across all tests. In contrast, mock studies reveal a significant bias in the inferred growth-rate parameter $fσ_8$, leading us to exclude this measurement from the final analysis. The consistency across mocks, data splits, and robustness tests demonstrates that the DR2 Ly$α$ full-shape analysis provides a reliable and substantially improved broadband AP measurement over previous Ly$α$ forest studies.

Herbold, M. [Chicago U., KICP; Ohio State U.] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Material‐Driven Neuronal Oscillators and Filters via Active Reactance in CC‐NDR and VC‐NDR Electro‐Thermal Memristors

The continued scaling of artificial intelligence and telecommunications hardware is increasingly constrained by the power, bandwidth, and area limitations of transistor-based circuits. Neuromorphic processor units, analog oscillators, and active inductors and capacitors rely on complex multi-transistor architectures restricting material choices and incurring energy and footprint overhead. Here, we show that active reactance in electro-thermal memristors provides an intrinsic, material driven route to neuronal oscillator dynamics and signal processing. Using a physics-based compact modeling framework, we bridge negative differential resistance (NDR) and bias-tunable reactance, which underlies spiking dynamics in electro-thermal memristors. Memristors with negative temperature coefficients of resistance (TCR) manifest current-controlled (CC-) NDR and act as active inductors, thus generating spiking above a critical circuit capacitance; whereas memristors with positive TCR manifest voltage-controlled (VC-) NDR and active capacitance, leading to spiking above a critical inductance. By creating a compact model for La 0.7 Ca 0.3 MnO 3 as a representative VC-NDR material and comparing it with LaCoO 3 manifesting CC-NDR, we explain the physical origins of their distinct current-voltage characteristics, reactive phase shifts and consequent spiking behaviors. Finally, we demonstrate tunable filtering enabled by the active reactance of electro-thermal memristors, establishing them as a compact hardware platform for neuronal oscillator functionality and integrated filtering beyond conventional CMOS.

active reactance↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupled Electro-Thermal Analysis of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor for Electric Vehicles

Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM) are extensively used in electric vehicles. However, high internal heat generation and inefficient heat dissipation often limit the operational reliability, and longevity of the PMSM. Therefore, proper quantification of heat generation in electric motor and advanced embedded motor cooling techniques remain topics of immense interest. In order to accurately predict electro-magnetic performance, i.e., efficiency, component-wise heat losses and the corresponding temperature distribution of a jacket cooled machine, this paper presents a two-way iteratively coupled electro-thermal modeling framework. Finite element based software Motor-CAD has been utilized for electro-magnetic performance calculation of BMW i3 PMSM. Finite volume based computational fluid dynamics/heat transfer (CFD/HT) software ANSYS® FLUENT® has been employed to simulate the temperature distribution of the PMSM, using the electro-magnetic losses as heat input. Computed heat losses, stator, winding, rotor, and magnet temperatures are utilized as coupling parameters between the electro-magnetic and thermal models. A conventional one-way coupling algorithm has also been developed and compared to the newly proposed two-way coupling algorithm. Numerical results confirm that at high current density, one-way coupling algorithm significantly over-predicts the motor temperature compared to the two-way algorithm. A comprehensive analysis has been carried out to characterize the influences of current density, speed, and forced convection heat transfer coefficient on the heat losses, overall efficiency, and maximum temperature of the PMSM. Lastly, an efficiency map has been interpreted from the coupled electro-magnetic simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Cycle of Idealized Polar Clouds: Large Eddy Simulations Driven by a GCM

The uncertainty in polar cloud feedbacks calls for process understanding of the cloud response to climate warming. As an initial step toward improved process understanding, we investigate the seasonal cycle of polar clouds in the current climate by adopting a novel modeling framework using large eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud dynamics. Resolved horizontal and vertical advection of heat and moisture from an idealized GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES are also forced with prescribed sea ice thickness, but surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and moisture evolve freely without nudging. A semigray radiative transfer scheme without water vapor and cloud feedbacks allows the GCM and LES to achieve closed energy budgets more easily than would be possible with more complex schemes. This enables the mean states in the two models to be consistently compared, without the added complications from interaction with more comprehensive radiation. Furthermore, we show that the LES closely follow the GCM seasonal cycle, and the seasonal cycle of low-level clouds in the LES resembles observations: maximum cloud liquid occurs in late summer and early autumn, and winter clouds are dominated by ice in the upper troposphere. Large-scale advection of moisture provides the main source of water vapor for the liquid-containing clouds in summer, while a temperature advection peak in winter makes the atmosphere relatively dry and reduces cloud condensate. The framework we develop and employ can be used broadly for studying cloud processes and the response of polar clouds to climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Quantifying the Ability of Magnetohydrodynamic Models to Reproduce Observed Birkeland Current and Auroral Electrojet Magnitudes

Although global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models have increased in sophistication and are now at the forefront of modeling Space Weather, there is still no clear understanding of how well these models replicate the observed ionospheric current systems. Without a full understanding and treatment of the ionospheric current systems, global models will have significant shortcomings that will limit their use. In this study we focus on reproducing observed seasonal interhemispheric asymmetry in ionospheric currents using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). We find that SWMF does reproduce the linear relationship between the electrojets and the FACs, despite the underestimation of the currents’ magnitudes. Quantitatively, we find that at best SWMF is only capturing approximately 60% of the observed current. We also investigate how varying F10.7 effects the ionospheric potential and currents during the summer and winter. We find that simulations ran with higher F10.7 result in lower ionospheric potentials. Additionally, we find that the models do not always replicate the expected behavior of the currents with varying F10.7. This work points to a needed improvement in ionospheric conductance models.

Tre'Shunda James↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model-Specific Metadata for Enhancing Space Science Models

The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community, supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), provides a collaborative platform for space weather models and data. Flexible metadata is vital for advancing scientific research and fostering collaboration. Our work in expressing complex simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), particularly Global Magnetosphere (GM) grid components, in terms of simple metadata records shows great promise in creating searchable and reusable units of knowledge. Such records can be readily utilized to support the process of scientific discovery, closely aligning with the goals outlined in the Open Science initiative. Our primary goal is to show the scalability and benefits of metadata-focused methodologies. This presentation highlights the potential for applying metadata methodologies to other complex models, improving usability, supplying efficient documentation and fostering interdisciplinary research.

space weather↗

DOE OSTI2021

Soil enzymes as indicators of soil function: A step toward greater realism in microbial ecological modeling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme-mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C-N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12-year CO 2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO 2 fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C-N-associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem-level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Applications of Multibody for Everybody (M4E) in Marine Energy

Multibody for Everybody (M4E) is an open-source symbolic dynamics modeling framework designed to automate the derivation of equations of motion and simulation of constrained multibody systems using the joint coordinate formulation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗