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At least 883 records · Page 49

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Initial demonstration of automated fuel performance modeling with 1977 EBR-II metallic fuel pins using BISON code with FIPD and IMIS databases

Using the BISON fuel performance code, simulations were conducted using an automated process to read initial and operating conditions from the Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) and Integral Fast Reactor materials information system (IMIS) database, which contains metallic fuel data from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II). This work demonstrates use of an integrated framework to access the vast majority of EBR-II experimental fuel pin data to support rapid development of fuel performance models for next-generation metallic fuel systems. With this capability, validation for fuel qualification can be performed rapidly. Between IMIS and FIPD, there is enough information to conduct 1977 unique EBR-II metallic fuel pin histories from 24 different experiments, at varying levels of detail between the two databases. Each of these histories includes a high-resolution power history, flux history, coolant channel flow rates, and coolant channel temperatures. Fission gas release (FGR), cumulative damage fraction (CDF), fuel axial swelling, cladding profilometry, and burnup were all simulated in BISON. The results were compared to post-irradiation examination (PIE) results for the initial demonstration of automated BISON modeling. BISON simulations conducted with IMIS and FIPD were in rough agreement with PIE measurements and calculations. Cladding profilometry, FGR, and fuel axial swelling were found to be in rough agreement with PIE measurements, depending on the physics used within the BISON input files. Here, the mechanical contact solver chosen was found to significantly impact axial fuel swelling and cladding strain predictions. CDF values were assessed to see whether pin failure may have been predicted (CDF ≥ 1). This work suggests that continued development of an automated tool for BISON should focus on inclusion of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) experimental data for a larger database for metallic fuel, improved physical models to better capture fuel performance, such as fuel-cladding interactions, and a more detailed comparison with available PIE data to further the BISON model development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An MBSE Approach to Space Suit Development

The EVA/Space Suit Development Office (ESSD) Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) team has utilized MBSE in multiple programs. After developing operational and architectural models, the MBSE framework was expanded to link the requirements space to the system models through functional analysis and interfaces definitions. By documenting all the connections within the technical baseline, ESSD experienced significant efficiency improvements in analysis and identification of change impacts. One of the biggest challenges presented to the MBSE structure was a program transition and restructuring effort, which was completed successfully in 4 months culminating in the approval of a new EVA Technical Baseline. During this time three requirements sets spanning multiple DRMs were streamlined into one NASA-owned Systems Requirement Document (SRD) that successfully identified requirements relevant to the current hardware development effort while remaining extensible to support future hardware developments. A capability-based hierarchy was established to provide a more flexible framework for future space suit development that can support multiple programs with minimal rework of basic EVA/Space Suit requirements. This MBSE approach was most recently applied for generation of an EMU Demonstrator technical baseline being developed for an ISS DTO. The relatively quick turnaround of operational concepts, architecture definition, and requirements for this new suit development has allowed us to test and evolve the MBSE process and framework in an extremely different setting while still offering extensibility and traceability throughout ESSD projects. The ESSD MBSE framework continues to be evolved in order to support integration of all products associated with the SE&I engine.

Cordova, Lauren↗

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗

Evaluation of optimal control type models for the human gunner in an Anti-Aircraft Artillery (AAA) system

The selection of the structure of optimal control type models for the human gunner in an anti aircraft artillery system is considered. Several structures within the LQG framework may be formulated. Two basic types are considered: (1) kth derivative controllers; and (2) proportional integral derivative (P-I-D) controllers. It is shown that a suitable criterion for model structure determination can be based on the ensemble statistics of the tracking error. In the case when the ensemble tracking steady state error is zero, it is suggested that a P-I-D controller formulation be used in preference to the kth derivative controller.

Phatak, A. V.↗

Land Use and Land Cover Change in Forest Frontiers: The Role of Household Life Cycles

Tropical deforestation remains a critical issue given its present rate and a widespread consensus regarding its implications for the global carbon cycle and biodiversity. Nowhere is the problem more pronounced than in the Amazon basin, home to the world's largest intact, tropical forest. This article addresses land cover change processes at household level in the Amazon basin, and to this end adapts a concept of domestic life cycle to the current institutional environment of tropical frontiers. In particular, it poses a risk minimization model that integrates demography with market-based factors such as transportation costs and accessibility. In essence, the article merges the theory of Chayanov with the household economy framework, in which markets exist for inputs (including labor), outputs, and capital. The risk model is specified and estimated, using survey data for 261 small producers along the Transamazon Highway in the eastern sector of the Brazilian Amazon.

Walker, Robert↗

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Autonomous Inverter Controls for Resilient and Secure Grid Operation: Vector Control Design for Grid Forming

The project addresses both fundamental and practical challenges of GFM/GFL inverter control for the power grids with high inverter based resources (IBRs) penetration. A data- driven modeling technique is applied to accurately model dynamics of PWM inverters, including electromagnetic-transient (EMT). Systematic and integrative designs of grid- forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) primary controls are developed to guarantee system performance under either normal or abnormal operating conditions without violating constraints. This modeling and control framework provides black-start capability in case of an outage without relying on rotating generators, and its secondary control is also shown to enhance resilience against cyber-physical attacks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Developing a strategy for the national coordinated soil moisture monitoring network

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System. The strategy is currently in review within NOAA, and work is underway to implement the initial milestones of the strategy. This update reviews the goals and steps being taken to establish this national-scale coordination for soil moisture monitoring in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-Situ SEM High Strain Rate Testing of Large Diameter Micropillars Followed by TEM and EBSD Postmortem Analysis

Background Dislocation dynamic simulations are intended as a tool to understand and predict the mechanical behavior of metallic materials, but its prediction has never been directly verified by experiments due to differences in specimen strain rate and size. Objective In this work, a comprehensive experimental framework is proposed to attempt direct comparison between experiments and discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) modelling. Methods By integrating high-throughput sample fabrication and a customized testing apparatus, the sample size and strain rate typically employed in DDD simulations are explored experimentally. Constitutive properties such as stress-strain response are measured, and microstructural information is obtained from transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and TEM-based orientation mapping. Results Magnesium and copper were selected, as case studies, to demonstrate the newly developed experimental procedure. Measured stress-strain responses for Mg are consistent with those obtained with a miniaturized Hopkison bar experiments. Furthermore, by exploiting the validated workflow, the effect of strain rate on micropillar heterogeneous deformation and associated dislocation plasticity were revealed. Conclusion The work establishes a methodology for the systematic study of not only metals but also other materials and structures at the microscale and high strain rates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Harnessing dimethyl ether with ultra-low-grade heat for scaling-resistant brine concentration and fractional crystallization

Solvent-driven separations may enable scalable concentration of hypersaline brines, supporting a circular resource economy from the extraction of lithium and rare earth elements from spent battery and magnet leachates. This work analyses a novel solvent-driven water extraction (SDWE) system employing dimethyl ether (DME) and ultra-low-grade heat for brine concentration and fractional crystallization. SDWE exploits DME’s unique properties: (1) a low dielectric constant that promotes water solubility over charged solutes by a factor of 10 3 , and (2) a high volatility that facilitate efficient DME reconcentration with ultra-low-grade heat. The techno-economic viability of SDWE is assessed with a computational framework that encompasses a liquid–liquid separator and a solvent concentrator. We integrate the extended universal quasichemical model with the virial equation of state to predict the compositions of the complex three-phase DME-water mixture at vapor–liquid and liquid–liquid equilibrium. Subsequently, we optimize the thermodynamic and economic performance of SDWE, by controlling the interstage flash pressure, heat source temperature, and the number of concentrating stages. DME-based SDWE concentrates an input saline feed to 5.5 M and regenerates over 99 % of the DME using ultra-low-grade heat below 50 °C, with a DME/water selectivity ratio of 125. Here our calculations reveal that optimal performance is achieved at interstage flash pressures of 0.4 – 0.5 bar for heat source temperatures between 323–373 K, with improved exergetic efficiencies at lower temperatures. At a heat source temperature of 323 K and an interstage pressure of 0.489 bar, DME-driven SDWE achieves an optimal thermodynamic efficiency of 20.5 % and a projected specific cost of US$ 1.93 m -3 . These specific costs suggest that SDWE is competitive with commercialized thermal distillation technologies, while mitigating the traditional risks associated with scaling in heat and mass exchangers with hypersaline brines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

3D high-fidelity automated neutronics guided optimization of fusion blanket designs

The compact Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) is defined in the recent National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report as the next step of fusion energy demonstration with a $50$ MWe peak net electricity production, $Q_e$ greater than $1$, and at least $3$ hours of continuous operation. This fusion pilot plant will be a test bed enabling materials, designs, and fuel management assessment, and it will represent an engineering challenge because of its high-fusion power and compact design targets. Previous reactor data is limited to experiments operating in different design space ranges. Therefore, design iterations and assessments should rely on high-fidelity first-principle theoretical and computational models. The high-fidelity integrated modeling of the plasma is a fundamental part of fusion energy research. However, the whole device modeling is often neglected, utilizing low-fidelity, system-level analysis. Recently, the need for high-fidelity multi-physics modeling was recognized, resulting in a selection of integrated tools. Further, autonomous design optimization requires a streamlined framework that perturbs the design point, reruns the analysis, and examines the outputs. However, high-fidelity analysis requires complex geometry specification that is difficult to perturb. This work presents the parametric CAD generation tool TRACER and a new neutronic workflow. TRACER allows the perturbation of the geometry representation, creating geometry files ready for further analysis. The streamlined neutronic workflow allows efficient and accurate calculations. The two new tools coupled together were used to perform a 3D high-fidelity multi-objective, multi-input optimization of an "ARC Class" compact tokamak design. The workflow was driven by an optimization driver for full automation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Calculation of the C 12 + C 12 sub-barrier fusion cross section in an imaginary-time-dependent mean field theory

The 12 C + 12 C sub-barrier fusion cross section is calculated within the framework of a time-dependent Hartree-Fock-based classical model using the Feynman path-integral method. The modified astrophysical S* factor is compared to direct and indirect experimental results. A good agreement with the direct data is found. In the lower-energy region where recent analyses of experimental data obtained with the Trojan horse method (THM) lead to contrasting results, the model predicts a nonresonant S* factor half-way between those results. Low-energy resonances revealed in the THM data are added to the calculation, and the relative reaction rate in the Gamow region is calculated. In particular, including 0 + resonances result in some agreement with the THM data. Here, the role of different resonances is discussed in detail, and their influence on the reaction rate at temperatures relevant to stellar evolution is investigated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

RxnRover/amlro

AMLRO (Active Machine Learning Reaction Optimizer) is an open-source framework designed to accelerate chemical reaction optimization using active learning with classical machine learning regression models. AMLRO integrates space-filling sampling strategies (e.g., Sobol and Latin Hypercube sampling) with iterative model training, prediction, and experiment selection to efficiently navigate complex reaction spaces. The platform supports multiple regression models, flexible multi-objective definitions, and user-defined parameter bounds, enabling data-efficient optimization from small initial datasets. AMLRO is designed for ease of use by experimentalists and can operate as a standalone decision-support tool or be integrated into closed-loop automated experimentation workflows.

Kulathunga, Dulitha Prasanna [Iowa State Universit↗

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗

Error Analysis on Numerical Integration Algorithms in a Hypoelasticity Framework

This report determines local truncation errors for common stress integration algorithms used in explicit finite element codes with hypoelastic material models. The hypoelastic integration algorithms in question utilize an operator splitting procedure in a rotation neutralized configuration, where the stress response is determined from de- coupling the total deformation into rotational and strain dependent components. This document analyzes the error in evolving the stress given a one-step time increment Δt and compares the errors associated with both the rotational and strain components of the operator splitting method. A slight modification to a traditional algorithm is proposed and studied, where the rate of deformation is appropriately rotated from the midstep configuration at t n+1/2 to the end step configuration at t n+1 before the constitutive evaluation. The proposed modification either completely eliminates the error associated with the rotation rate or is of the same order of magnitude as the original algorithm for the three test cases considered in this report. These cases consist of an unaxial stretch with a constant true strain rate with a rigid body rotation, an uniaxial stretch with a constant engineering strain rate with a rigid body rotation, and a simple shear deformation. All three cases are compared to a closed form solution, and in almost every test case the alternative algorithm yields the most accurate one-step local truncation error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 6.0 Deliverable – CarbonSAFE Phase III Readiness

The OASIS CarbonSAFE Phase II Project OASIS (Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County) is a geologic and reservoir characterization study designed to evaluate deep saline formations for potential long-term carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in central Alabama near the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston. The project centers on understanding the potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group and underlying strata such as the Conasauga and Rome Formations for geologic storage of CO 2 . These formations were investigated as part of SECARB-USA (DE-FE0031830) and Project OASIS through the drilling of two stratigraphic test wells to obtain electronic well logs, core, and sidewall core plugs. These data provide direct measurements of porosity, permeability, and lithologic variability critical for reservoir characterization. Complementing the well program, a limited 2D seismic survey was conducted to help select the site for Westover #2 as part of SECARB-USA (DE-FE0031830), and a more regional Seismic Exchange (SEI) seismic survey was licensed and interpreted to define structural and stratigraphic frameworks in a new Static Earth Model (SEM), map reservoir continuity, and to identify potential sealing intervals. Integrated with geologic and reservoir modeling, these datasets form the basis for evaluating storage capacity, injectivity, and containment. While this document endeavors to provide readers with a high-level overview of Project OASIS activities and its suitability for subsequent CarbonSAFE Phases, such as a Phase III effort. Other project deliverables and milestones will provide more details on individual subjects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗