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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid assessment of the creep rupture life of metals: A model enabling experimental design

Prediction of the creep rupture life of engineering metals is critical for qualification and design of new materials. The use of long-term creep tests and the need to quantify the performance variability in a priori similar systems hinder the rapid creep assessment of a given material. Therefore, it is essential to develop methods that can extrapolate the long-term performance of alloys and the associated variability from short-term experiments. To this end, this study introduces a new model which enables the estimation of the rupture life of a material for a given stress and temperature. This model relies on two components. First, a new relation for the minimum creep rate (MCR) of materials is introduced. It includes a stress dependent stress exponent allowing the model to capture the variation of MCR across a wide range of temperatures and stresses. Second, employing the Monkman-Grant (MG) law, we establish a relation between stress, temperature and creep rupture life. Together, these two elements yield a new closed-form mathematical expression for the Larson Miller parameter as a function of stress and temperature. This expression captures the creep rupture time for many metals (Gr91, Copper, Gr122 and 347H) and compares favorably with alternate empirical approaches. The model is then used to assess the minimum duration of creep rates necessary to qualify the material up to 100000h. Furthermore, it is found that depending on the material system, creep tests as few as five limited to 5000 h for steels (Gr91, Gr122, 347H) and 100 h for copper are sufficient to model creep lifetimes. Finally, using a Bayesian inference-based approach to calibrate the model, we demonstrate that variability in rupture life can be captured via the quantification of the uncertainty in the model parameters and extrapolated from a limited number of short to moderately short creep tests; thereby paving the way for accelerated creep testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Protein structure determination using metagenome sequence data

Filling in the protein fold picture Fewer than a third of the 14,849 known protein families have at least one member with an experimentally determined structure. This leaves more than 5000 protein families with no structural information. Protein modeling using residue-residue contacts inferred from evolutionary data has been successful in modeling unknown structures, but it requires large numbers of aligned sequences. Ovchinnikov et al. augmented such sequence alignments with metagenome sequence data (see the Perspective by Söding). They determined the number of sequences required to allow modeling, developed criteria for model quality, and, where possible, improved modeling by matching predicted contacts to known structures. Their method predicted quality structural models for 614 protein families, of which about 140 represent newly discovered protein folds. Science , this issue p. 294 ; see also p. 248

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Proposal of a Novel Approach to Developing Material Models for Micro-scale Composites Based on Testing and Modeling of Macro-scale Composites

The Los Alamos National Laboratory's Weapon Systems Engineering division's Advanced Engineering Analysis group employs material constitutive models of composites for use in simulations of components and assemblies of interest. Experimental characterization, modeling and prediction of the macro-scale (i.e. continuum) behaviors of these composite materials is generally difficult because they exhibit nonlinear behaviors on the meso- (e.g. micro-) and macro-scales. Furthermore, it can be difficult to measure and model the mechanical responses of the individual constituents and constituent interactions in the composites of interest. Current efforts to model such composite materials rely on semi-empirical models in which meso-scale properties are inferred from continuum level testing and modeling. The proposed approach involves removing the difficulties of interrogating and characterizing micro-scale behaviors by scaling-up the problem to work with macro-scale composites, with the intention of developing testing and modeling capabilities that will be applicable to the mesoscale. This approach assumes that the physical mechanisms governing the responses of the composites on the meso-scale are reproducible on the macro-scale. Working on the macro-scale simplifies the quantification of composite constituents and constituent interactions so that efforts can be focused on developing material models and the testing techniques needed for calibration and validation. Other benefits to working with macro-scale composites include the ability to engineer and manufacture—potentially using additive manufacturing techniques—composites that will support the application of advanced measurement techniques such as digital volume correlation and three-dimensional computed tomography imaging, which would aid in observing and quantifying complex behaviors that are exhibited in the macro-scale composites of interest. Ultimately, the goal of this new approach is to develop a meso-scale composite modeling framework, applicable to many composite materials, and the corresponding macroscale testing and test data interrogation techniques to support model calibration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Epperson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2017

Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models that can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0–100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, temperature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temperature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. Here, by providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about factors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Neutrino in standard model and beyond

After discovery of the Higgs boson at CERN the Standard Model acquired a status of the theory of the elementary particles in the electroweak range (up to about 300 GeV). What general conclusions can be inferred from the Standard Model? It looks that the Standard Model teaches us that in the framework of such general principles as local gauge symmetry, unification of weak and electromagnetic interactions and Brout-Englert-Higgs spontaneous breaking of the electroweak symmetry nature chooses the simplest possibilities. Two-component left-handed massless neutrino fields play crucial role in the determination of the charged current structure of the Standard Model. The absence of the right-handed neutrino fields in the Standard Model is the simplest, most economical possibility. In such a scenario Majorana mass term is the only possibility for neutrinos to be massive and mixed. Such mass term is generated by the lepton-number violating Weinberg effective Lagrangian. In this approach three Majorana neutrino masses are suppressed with respect to the masses of other fundamental fermions by the ratio of the electroweak scale and a scale of a lepton-number violating physics. The discovery of the neutrinoless double β-decay and absence of transitions of flavor neutrinos into sterile states would be evidence in favor of the minimal scenario we advocate here.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Optimizing Kernel Machines Using Deep Learning

Building highly non-linear and non-parametric models is central to several state-of-the-art machine learning systems. Kernel methods form an important class of techniques that induce a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) for inferring non-linear models through the construction of similarity functions from data. These methods are particularly preferred in cases where the training data sizes are limited and when prior knowledge of the data similarities is available. Despite their usefulness, they are limited by the computational complexity and their inability to support end-to-end learning with a task specific objective. On the other hand, deep neural networks have become the de facto solution for end-to-end inference in several learning paradigms. In this article, we explore the idea of using deep architectures to perform kernel machine optimization, for both computational efficiency and end-to-end inferencing. To this end, we develop the DKMO (Deep Kernel Machine Optimization) framework, that creates an ensemble of dense embeddings using Nystrõm kernel approximations and utilizes deep learning to generate task-specific representations through the fusion of the embeddings. Intuitively, the filters of the network are trained to fuse information from an ensemble of linear subspaces in the RKHS. Furthermore, we introduce the kernel dropout regularization to enable improved training convergence. Finally, we extend this framework to the multiple kernel case, by coupling a global fusion layer with pre-trained deep kernel machines for each of the constituent kernels. Using case studies with limited training data, and lack of explicit feature sources, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework over conventional model inferencing techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quasi-Newton Variational Bayes v.3.0

SAND2024-09052O Quasi-Newton Variational Bayes (QNVB) is a training algorithm that performs high-dimensional variational inference on machine learning models. It provides mechanisms to calibrate and control model uncertainty during training. The PyTorch implementation of projective integral updates for Gaussian mean-fields supports the manuscript, "Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference." Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Duersch, Jed↗
DOE OSTI2024

VALIDATION, VERIFICATION, AND CALIBRATION THROUGH A CAUSAL LENS

This paper presents an alternative method based on causal inference to perform validation, verification, and calibration of simulation models. While classical validation and verification approaches focus on the identification of the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on the identification of causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between datasets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, then the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles it is known as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and from experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts have a means to identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

A direct dynamical measurement of the Milky Way's disk surface density profile, disk scale length, and dark matter profile at 4 kpc ≲ R ≲ 9 kpc

We present and apply rigorous dynamical modeling with which we infer unprecedented constraints on the stellar and dark matter mass distribution within our Milky Way (MW), based on large sets of phase-space data on individual stars. Specifically, we model the dynamics of 16,269 G-type dwarfs from SEGUE, which sample 5 kpc < R{sub GC} < 12 kpc and 0.3 kpc ≲ |Z| ≲ 3 kpc. We independently fit a parameterized MW potential and a three-integral, action-based distribution function (DF) to the phase-space data of 43 separate abundance-selected sub-populations (MAPs), accounting for the complex selection effects affecting the data. We robustly measure the total surface density within 1.1 kpc of the mid-plane to 5% over 4.5 kpc < R{sub GC} < 9 kpc. Using metal-poor MAPs with small radial scale lengths as dynamical tracers probes 4.5 kpc ≲ R{sub GC} ≲ 7 kpc, while MAPs with longer radial scale lengths sample 7 kpc ≲ R{sub GC} ≲ 9 kpc. We measure the mass-weighted Galactic disk scale length to be R{sub d} = 2.15 ± 0.14 kpc, in agreement with the photometrically inferred spatial distribution of stellar mass. We thereby measure dynamically the mass of the Galactic stellar disk to unprecedented accuracy: M {sub *} = 4.6 ± 0.3 + 3.0 (R {sub 0}/ kpc – 8) × 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉} and a total local surface density of Σ{sub R{sub 0}}(Z=1.1 kpc)=68 ± 4 M{sub ⊙} pc{sup −2} of which 38 ± 4 M {sub ☉} pc{sup –2} is contributed by stars and stellar remnants. By combining our surface density measurements with the terminal velocity curve, we find that the MW's disk is maximal in the sense that V {sub c,} {sub disk}/V {sub c,} {sub total} = 0.83 ± 0.04 at R = 2.2 R{sub d} . We also constrain for the first time the radial profile of the dark halo at such small Galactocentric radii, finding that ρ{sub DM}(r; ≈R {sub 0})∝1/r {sup α} with α < 1.53 at 95% confidence. Our results show that action-based DF modeling of complex stellar data sets is now a feasible approach that will be fruitful for interpreting Gaia data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of electron density and ion temperature profiles from neutral beam and halo Balmer- α emission at Wendelstein 7-X

By employing Bayesian inference techniques, the full electron density profile from the plasma core to the edge of Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) is inferred solely from neutral hydrogen beam and halo Balmer- α (H α ) emission data. The halo is a cloud of neutrals forming in the vicinity of the injected neutral beam due to multiple charge exchange reactions. W7-X is equipped with several neutral hydrogen beam heating sources and an H α spectroscopy system that views these sources from different angles and penetration depths in the plasma. As the beam and halo emission form complex spectra for each spatial point that are non-linearly dependent on the plasma density profile and other parameters, a complete model from the neutral beam injection and halo formation through to the spectroscopic measurements is required. The model is used here to infer electron density profiles for a range of common W7-X plasma scenarios. The inferred profiles show good agreement with profiles determined by the Thomson scattering and interferometry diagnostics across a broad range of absolute densities without any changes to the input or fitting parameters. The time evolution of the density profile in a discharge with continuous core density peaking is successfully reconstructed, demonstrating sufficient spatial resolution to infer strongly shaped profiles. Furthermore, it is shown as a proof of concept that the model is also able to infer the main ion temperature profile using the same data set.

forward modeling↗
DOE OSTI2015

DETECTING UNSPECIFIED STRUCTURE IN LOW-COUNT IMAGES

Unexpected structure in images of astronomical sources often presents itself upon visual inspection of the image, but such apparent structure may either correspond to true features in the source or be due to noise in the data. This paper presents a method for testing whether inferred structure in an image with Poisson noise represents a significant departure from a baseline (null) model of the image. To infer image structure, we conduct a Bayesian analysis of a full model that uses a multiscale component to allow flexible departures from the posited null model. As a test statistic, we use a tail probability of the posterior distribution under the full model. This choice of test statistic allows us to estimate a computationally efficient upper bound on a p-value that enables us to draw strong conclusions even when there are limited computational resources that can be devoted to simulations under the null model. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated images. Applying our method to an X-ray image of the quasar 0730+257, we find significant evidence against the null model of a single point source and uniform background, lending support to the claim of an X-ray jet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗