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At least 883 records · Page 49

Timing the r -process Enrichment of the Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy Reticulum II

The ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Reticulum II (Ret II) exhibits a unique chemical evolution history, with ${72}_{-12}^{+10}$% of its stars strongly enhanced in r-process elements. We present deep Hubble Space Telescope photometry of Ret II and analyze its star formation history. As in other ultra-faint dwarfs, the color–magnitude diagram is best fit by a model consisting of two bursts of star formation. If we assume that the bursts were instantaneous, then the older burst occurred around the epoch of reionization, forming ~80% of the stars in the galaxy, while the remainder of the stars formed ~3 Gyr later. When the bursts are allowed to have nonzero durations, we obtain slightly better fits. The best-fitting model in this case consists of two bursts beginning before reionization, with approximately half the stars formed in a short (100 Myr) burst and the other half in a more extended period lasting 2.6 Gyr. Considering the full set of viable star formation history models, we find that 28% of the stars formed within 500 ± 200 Myr of the onset of star formation. The combination of the star formation history and the prevalence of r-process-enhanced stars demonstrates that the r-process elements in Ret II must have been synthesized early in its initial star-forming phase. We therefore constrain the delay time between the formation of the first stars in Ret II and the r-process nucleosynthesis to be less than 500 Myr. This measurement rules out an r-process source with a delay time of several Gyr or more, such as GW170817.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Galactic Black Holes in the Hard State: A Multi-Wavelength View of Accretion and Ejection

The canonical hard state is associated with emission from all three fundamental accretion components: the accretion disk, the hot accretion disk corona and the jet. On top of these, the hard state also hosts very rich temporal variability properties (low frequency QPOs in the PDS, time lags, long time scale evolution). Our group has been working on the major questions of the hard state both observationally (with mult i-wavelength campaigns using RXTE, Swift, Suzaku, Spitzer, VLA, ATCA, SMARTS) and theoretically (through jet models that can fit entire SEDs). Through spectral and temporal analysis we seek to determine the geometry of accretion components, and relate the geometry to the formation and emission from a jet. In this presentation I will review the recent contributions of our group to the field, including the Swift results on the disk geometry at low accretion rates, the jet model fits to the hard state SEDs (including Spitzer data) of GRO J1655-40, and the final results on the evolution of spectral (including X-ray, radio and infrared) and temporal properties of elected black holes in the hard states. I will also talk about impact of ASTROSAT to the science objective of our group.

Kalemci↗

Uncertain characterization of reservoir fluids due to brittleness of equation of state regression

Equations of state (EoS) play a central role in modeling the phase equilibrium of fluid mixtures. Their parameterization involves fitting a model to experimental data, i.e., solving a nonlinear, non-convex, multivariate optimization problem. The latter requires one to select design variables, domains of definition for each variable, and weights assigned to individual measurements. We demonstrate that subjective choices of an optimization algorithm and an initial guess also impact the regression process. Consequently, EoS predictions are fundamentally uncertain even after the EoS tuning to a limited set of experimental data points. We demonstrate this observation for two hydrocarbon reservoir fluids, in which five properties of the heaviest carbon fraction are treated as design variables. While all the optimization algorithms and initial guesses match experimental data for the gas and liquid properties, the resulting EoS parameterizations lead to dramatically different predictions of the fluid’s thermophysical behavior in the unsampled pressure and temperature regions. In conclusion, we propose the probabilistic treatment of design variables to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the resulting fluid models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

Automation of reliability evaluation procedures through CARE - The computer-aided reliability estimation program.

Description of an on-line interactive computer program called CARE (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) which can model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations and perform certain other functions. Essentially CARE consists of a repository of mathematical equations defining the various basic redundancy schemes. These equations, under program control, are then interrelated to generate the desired mathematical model to fit the architecture of the system under evaluation. The mathematical model is then supplied with ground instances of its variables and is then evaluated to generate values for the reliability-theoretic functions applied to the model.

Mathur, F. P.↗

Thermal Properties and Evolution of a Coronal Cavity as Observed by the X-Ray Telescope on Hinode

Coronal cavities are voids in coronal emission often observed above high latitude filament channels. sometimes, these cavities have areas of bright x-ray emission in their centers (i.e. Hudson et al 1999). In this study, we use data from the x-ray Telescope (XRT) on Hinode to examine the thermal emission properties of a cavity observed during July 2008 that contains bright x-ray emission in its center. using ratios of XRT filters, we find evidence for elevated temperatures in the cavity center. The area of elevated temperature evolves from a ring-shaped structure at the be~inning of the observation, to an elongated structure two days later, finally appearing as a compact round source four days after the initial observation. We use a morphological model to fit the cavity emission, and find that a uniform structure running through the cavity does not fit the observations well. Instead, the observations are reproduced by modeling several short cavity "cores" with different parameters on different days. These changing core parameters may be due to some observed activity heating different parts of the cavity core at different times. We also find that core temperatures of 1.75 MK, 1.7 MK and 2.25 MK (for 19 July, 21 July and 23 July, respectively) in the model lead to structures that are consistent with the data, and that line-of-sight effects serve to lower the effective temperature derived from the filter ratio. page

Reeves, K. K.↗

Thermal Properties of A Solar Coronal Cavity Observed with the X-Ray Telescope on Hinode

Coronal cavities are voids in coronal emission often observed above high latitude filament channels. Sometimes, these cavities have areas of bright X-ray emission in their centers. In this study, we use data from the X-ray Telescope (XRT) on the Hinode satellite to examine the thermal emission properties of a cavity observed during July 2008 that contains bright X-ray emission in its center. Using ratios of XRT filters, we find evidence for elevated temperatures in the cavity center. The area of elevated temperature evolves from a ring-shaped structure at the beginning of the observation, to an elongated structure two days later, finally appearing as a compact round source four days after the initial observation. We use a morphological model to fit the cavity emission, and find that a uniform structure running through the cavity does not fit the observations well. Instead, the observations are reproduced by modeling several short cylindrical cavity "cores" with different parameters on different days. These changing core parameters may be due to some observed activity heating different parts of the cavity core at different times. We find that core temperatures of 1.75 MK, 1.7 MK and 2.0 MK (for July 19, July 21 and July 23, respectively) in the model lead to structures that are consistent with the data, and that line-of-sight effects serve to lower the effective temperature derived from the filter ratio.

Reeves, Katherine K.↗

Comparison of Likelihood Methods for Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 Data

Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.

dose-response model↗

Derivation of surface properties from Magellan altimetry data

The fit of the Hagfors model to the Magellan altimetry data provides a means to characterize the surface properties of Venus. However, the derived surface properties are only meaningful if the model provides a good representation of the data. The Hagfors model provides a good representation of the data. The Hagfors model is generally a realistic fit to surface scattering properties of a nadir-directed antenna such as the Magellan altimeter; however, some regions of the surface of Venus are poorly described by the existing model, according to the goodness of fit parameter provided on the ARCDR CD-ROMs. Poorly characterized regions need to be identified and fit to new models in order to derive more accurate surface properties for use in inferring the geological processes that affect the surface in those regions. We have compared the goodness of fit of the Hagfors model to the distribution of features across the planet, and preliminary results show a correlation between steep topographic slopes and poor fits to the standard model, as has been noticed by others. In this paper, we investigate possible relations between many classes of features and the ability of the Hagfors model to fit the observed echo profiles. In the regions that are not well characterized by existing models, we calculate new models that compensate for topographic relief in order to derive improved estimates of surface properties. Areas investigated to date span from longitude 315 through 45, at all latitudes covered by Magellan. A survey of those areas yields preliminary results that suggest that topographically high regions are well suited to the current implementation of the Hagfors model. Striking examples of such large-scale good fits are Alpha Regio, the northern edges of Lada Terra, and the southern edge of Ishtar Terra. Other features that are typically well fit are the rims of coronae such as Heng-O and the peaks of volcanos such as Gula Mons. Surprisingly, topographically low regions, such as the ubiquitous plains areas, are modeled poorly in comparison. However, this generalization has has exceptions: Lakshmi Planum is an elevated region that is not well fit compared to the rest of neighboring Ishtar, while the southern parts of topographically low Guinevere Planitia are characterized quite well by the Hagfors model. Features that are candidates for improved models are impact craters, coronae, ridges of significant scale, complex ridged terrains, moderate-sized mountains, and sharp terrain boundaries. These features are chosen because the goodness of fit is likely to be most affected either by departures from normal incidence angles or by sharp changes in terrain type within a single footprint. Most large features that are elevated with respect to their surroundings will suffer from steep slope effects, and smaller coronae and impact craters will probably suffer due to rapid changes in their appearance within a single footprint (10-20 km).

Lovell, Amy J.↗

A Peculiar Class of Debris Disks from Herschel/DUNES: A Steep Fall Off in the Far Infrared

Context. The existence of debris disks around old main sequence stars is usually explained by continuous replenishment of small dust grains through collisions from a reservoir of larger objects. Aims. We present photometric data of debris disks around HIP 103389 (HD199260), HIP 100350 (HN Peg, HD206860), and HIP 114948 (HD 219482), obtained in the context of our Herschel Open TIme Key Program DUNES (DUst around NEarby Stars). Methods. We used Herschel/PACS to detect the thermal emission of the three debris disks with a 30 sigma sensitivity of a few mJy at l00 micron and 160 micron. In addition, we obtained Herschel/PACS photometric data at 70 micron for HIP 103389. These observations are complemented by a large variety of optical to far-infrared photometric data. Two different approaches are applied to reduce the Herschel data to investigate the impact of data reduction on the photometry. We fit analytical models to the available spectral energy distribution (SED) data using the fitting method of simulated therma1 annealing as well as a classical grid search method. Results. The SEDs of the three disks potentially exhibit an unusually steep decrease at wavelengths >= 70 micron. We investigate the significance of the peculiar shape of these SEDs and the impact on models of the disks provided it is real. Using grain compositions that have been applied successfully for modeling of many other debris disks, our modeling reveals that such a steep decrease of the SEDs in the long wavelength regime is inconsistent with a power-law exponent of the grain size distribution -3.5 expected from a standard equilibrium collisional cascade. In contrast, a steep grain size distribution or, alternatively an upper grain size in the range of few tens of micrometers are implied. This suggests that a very distinct range of grain sizes would dominate the thermal. emission of such disks. However, we demonstrate that the understanding of the data of faint sources obtained with Herschel is still incomplete and that the significance of our results depends on the version of the data reduction pipeline used. Conclusions. A new mechanism to produce the dust in the presented debris disks, deviations from the conditions required for a standard equilibrium collisional cascade (grain size exponent of -3.5), and/or significantly different dust properties would be necessary to explain the potentially steep SED shape of the three debris disks presented.

Ertel, S.↗

Analysis of Snow Bidirectional Reflectance from ARCTAS Spring-2008 Campaign

The spring 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) experiment was one of major intensive field campaigns of the International Polar Year aimed at detailed characterization of atmospheric physical and chemical processes in the Arctic region. A part of this campaign was a unique snow bidirectional reflectance experiment on the NASA P-3B aircraft conducted on 7 and 15 April by the Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) jointly with airborne Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS) and ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometers. The CAR data were atmospherically corrected to derive snow bidirectional reflectance at high 1 degree angular resolution in view zenith and azimuthal angles along with surface albedo. The derived albedo was generally in good agreement with ground albedo measurements collected on 15 April. The CAR snow bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) was used to study the accuracy of analytical Ross-Thick Li-Sparse (RTLS), Modified Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete (MRPV) and Asymptotic Analytical Radiative Transfer (AART) BRF models. Except for the glint region (azimuthal angles phi less than 40 degrees), the best fit MRPV and RTLS models fit snow BRF to within 0.05. The plane-parallel radiative transfer (PPRT) solution was also analyzed with the models of spheres, spheroids, randomly oriented fractal crystals, and with a synthetic phase function. The latter merged the model of spheroids for the forward scattering angles with the fractal model in the backscattering direction. The PPRT solution with synthetic phase function provided the best fit to measured BRF in the full range of angles. Regardless of the snow grain shape, the PPRT model significantly over-/underestimated snow BRF in the glint/backscattering regions, respectively, which agrees with other studies. To improve agreement with experiment, we introduced a model of macroscopic snow surface roughness by averaging the PPRT solution over the slope distribution function and by adding a simple model of shadows. With macroscopic roughness described by two parameters, the AART model achieved an accuracy of about plus or minus 0.05 with a possible bias of plus or minus 0.03 in the spectral range 0.4-2.2 micrometers. This high accuracy holds at view zenith angles below 55-60 degrees covering the practically important range for remote sensing applications, and includes both glint and backscattering directions.

Lyapustin, A.↗

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Revenue-Maximizing Shared Parking and Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Multi-Unit Dwellings

In urban areas, searching for parking and electric vehicle (EV) charging can result in cruising, congestion, and environmental externalities. Recognizing the business opportunity of offering private parking and charging infrastructure access within multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) during daytime, we model a shared parking and EV charging management system. We maximize the revenue of MUD charging hubs in mixed land use, catering to public demand. Our approach accounts for the objectives of the two stakeholders involved: a demand model is fitted on the choices of EV charging users, and the supply model optimizes the allocation of parking and charging requests in an MUD parking lot. A binary integer linear programming model for the allocation of parking and charging spaces with a rolling horizon is integrated with matching rules that handle both parking and charging requests. In our numerical experiments in a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, we estimate the performance of the MUD parking and charging system with metrics that include revenue, number of matchings, and utilization rates. At any given time, MUDs with lower prices attract more charging requests, particularly those of longer duration, resulting in higher revenue and greater charging utilization. Dynamic pricing facilitates a more equitable distribution of requests; as MUD parking lots reach capacity and their fees increase, other MUDs become more competitive, attracting additional requests. Comparing our method against first-come-first-served and optimal-solution benchmarks, we demonstrate our model’s effectiveness in dynamically managing mixed parking and charging demand in MUD charging hubs.

electric vehicle, multi-unit dwelling, charging in↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

X-57 Ground Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

This paper presents simulation work to assess the ground handling behavior of the X-57 airplane, prior to its first flight under electric propulsion. A tire deformation model was fit to manufacturer ground testing data to develop a detailed simulation model of previously unmodeled rolling drag forces on the tires. A special modeling effort corrected for a difference between the runway surface in the manufacturer data (grass) and in intended X-57 surface operations (asphalt/concrete). Analysis based on variation in the test conditions of the manufacturer test data showed that uncertainty in the new estimated rolling drag model should lead to no more than 1.5-percent uncertainty in the takeoff acceleration. Another batch simulation series swept across ground operating conditions and airplane configurations, characterizing turning radii and roll angles experienced for different open-loop steering commands in these various situations. This simulation allowed the identification of ground handling characteristics even beyond the regime of normal operations. As part of this task, a new, modified variant of the Fibonacci search algorithm identified the correct steering inputs for maintaining a straight path as a function of the operating condition. Finally, this paper describes a fixed-base piloted simulator assessment. This assessment supplements the previous simulated ground dynamics data with pilot-in-the-loop data and pilot feedback and confirms the overall acceptability of the ground handling qualities of the X-57 airplane prior to first flight.

Loren J. Newton↗

Geopotential models in the Australian region

The ability of three high-order geopotential models (OSU81, GPM2 and OSU86E) to recover the gravity anomaly field (delta g) in the Australian region was tested. The region was divided into 2 x 2 deg blocks, and the mean and rms of the residual gravity (delta g measured - delta g modeled) was found to estimate the fit of the model to the point gravity data. The results showed that OSU81 and GPM2 performed similarly, recovering the delta g with a mean value of less than plus or minus 5 mGal in 63 and 70 percent of the blocks, respectively. However, both these models achieved a fit of worse that was plus or minus 13 mGal in 6 to 7 percent of cases. These were in areas either on or near the coast, or in the Central Australian region, inferring that for a precise geoid slope determination in these regions, a detailed analysis of delta g in region is needed. On the other hand, OSU86E produced a very good result, having a mean fit of less than plus or minus 5 mGal in 80 percent of the blocks, and worse than plus or minus 13 mGal in only 1 percent of cases. The rms values for this model were also improved over the other two models, indicating that for applications requiring highest precision, the preferred model is OSU86E.

Kearsley, A. H. W.↗

XMM-Newton Observations of the 2003 X-Ray Minimum of Eta Carinae

The XMM-Newton X-ray observatory took part in the multi-wavelength observing campaign of the massive, evolved star Eta Carinae in 2003 during its recent X-ray minimum in June 2003. This paper reports on the first results of these observations, which were performed (1) before the minimum (five times in January, 2003), (2) near the X-ray maximum just before the minimum (two times in June) and (3) during the minimum (four times in July-August). Hard X-ray emission from the point source of Eta Carinae was detected even during the minimum. The observed flux above 3 keV was approx. 3x10(exp -12) ergs cm(exp -2)/s, which is about one percent of the flux before the minimum. Light curves from the individual observations show no time variability on the scale of a few kilo-seconds. Changes in the spectral shape occurred, but these changes were smaller than expected if the minimum is produced solely by an increase of hydrogen column density. Fits of the hard X-Ray source by an absorbed 1T model show a constant plasma temperature at around 5 keV and an increase of column density from 5x10(exp 22) cm(exp -2) to 2x10(exp 23) cm(exp -2). The spectra below 6 keV significantly deviate from the models that fit the higher energy emission. The X-ray minimum seems to be dominated by an apparent decrease of the emission measure, suggesting that the brightest part of the X-ray emitting region is completely obscured during the minimum in the form of an eclipse. Partial covering plasma emission models might be considered for the spectral variation. The spectra also showed strong iron K line emission from both hot and cold gases, and weak line emission from Ni, Ca, Ar, S and Si.

Hamaguchi, K.↗

Evidence for protostellar collapse in B335

We have observed five rotational transitions of H2CO and CS toward the Bok globule, B335, with high spatial and spectral resolution. The characteristic shape of the observed profiles provides direct, kinematic evidence of collapse. In addition, we have modeled line profiles of collapsing dense cores with density and velocity structures taken from the theory of Shu and coworkers. Using the age of collapse as the only free parameter, we found that the strengths and profiles of the observed lines can be well fitted by the theoretical model. Our best-fit model gives an age of 1.5 x 10 exp 5 yr, corresponding to an infall radius of 0.04 pc and a total mass of 0.4 solar mass for the central star and disk. Outside the infall radius, there is a static envelope with a r exp -2 density distribution, an average temperature of 13 K, and a turbulent velocity (1/e width) of 0.12 km/s. The CS abundance is 3.6 x 10 exp -9 with about 30 percent uncertainty.

Zhou, Shudong↗