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At least 883 records · Page 49

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NASA NTRS2021

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗

NASA NTRS2012

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land- PBL coupling at the process-level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling testbed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger towards the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g. reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

Santanello, Joseph A. Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation is applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process, a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling test bed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger toward the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g., reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

southern plains↗

DOE OSTI2018

Plasma flow measurements in the Prototype-Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (Proto-MPEX) and comparison with B2.5-Eirene modeling

The Prototype Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (Proto-MPEX) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is a linear plasma device that combines a helicon plasma source with additional microwave and radio frequency heating to deliver high plasma heat and particle fluxes to a target. Double Langmuir probes and Thomson scattering are being used to measure local electron temperature and density at various radial and axial locations. A recently constructed Mach-double probe provides the added capability of simultaneously measuring electron temperatures (T e ), electron densities (n e ), and Mach numbers (M). With this diagnostic, it is possible to infer the plasma flow, particle flux, and heat flux at different locations along the plasma column in Proto-MPEX. Preliminary results show Mach numbers of 0.5 (towards the dump plate) and 1.0 (towards the target plate) downstream from the helicon source, and a stagnation point (no flow) near the source for the case where the peak magnetic field was 1.3 T. Measurements of particle flow and n e and T e profiles are discussed. Finally, the extensive coverage provided by these diagnostics permits data-constrained B2.5-Eirene modeling of the entire plasma column, and comparison with results of modeling in the high-density helicon plasmas will be presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning approach to fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering spectra

Fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering ion acoustic wave features using a deep convolutional neural network model is presented. The network was trained from spectra to predict the plasma parameters, including ion velocities, population fractions, and ion and electron temperatures. A fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation was used to model a laboratory astrophysics experiment and simulate a diagnostic image of the ion acoustic wave feature. Network predictions were compared with Bayesian inference of the plasma model parameters for both the simulated and experimentally measured images. Both approaches were fairly accurate predicting the simulated image and the network predictions matched a good portion of the Bayesian results for the experimentally measured image. The Bayesian approach is more robust to noise and motivates future work to train deep learning models with realistic noise. The advantage of the deep learning model is making thousands of predictions in a few hundred milliseconds, compared to a few seconds to minutes per prediction for the optimization and Bayesian approaches presented here. The results demonstrate promising capabilities of deep learning models to analyze Thomson data orders of magnitude faster than conventional methods when using the neural network for standalone analysis. If more rigorous analysis is needed, neural network predictions can be used to quickly initialize other optimization methods and increase chances of success. This is especially useful when the dataset becomes very large or highly dimensional and manually refining initial conditions for the entire dataset are no longer tractable.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Verification and Validation of Simulation Framework for Analysis of Traumatic Brain Injury

Many U.S. troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan have suffered blast-related, closed-head injuries as a result of being within non-lethal distance of a detonated improvised explosive device (IED). Consequently, we are conducting a modeling & simulation investigation, coupled with clinical diagnostics of brain injury, into the mechanisms associated with blast to the human head that give rise to traumatic brain injury (TBI). In particular, we are attempting to identify the specific conditions of focused stress wave energy within the brain, resulting from blast loading to the head, which define a threshold for persistent brain injury. As these threshold injury conditions are identified, one can then employ a modeling & simulation toolset to assess the efficacy of various helmet designs to mitigate blast exposure that would otherwise lead to traumatic brain injury. In this report, we describe our efforts to establish the role of stress wave interactions in the genesis of traumatic brain injury (TBI) from exposure to explosive blast. We discuss our effort to correlate simulation predictions with clinical assessments of TBI subjects whose brain injuries have been diagnosed by advanced magnetic resonance imaging techniques. This work has been funded through the U.S. Naval Health Research Center, Office of Naval Research, Mr. James Mackiewicz, project funding manager.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Development of Optical Diagnostic Techniques for Microgravity Materials Processing

Materials processing including crystal growth, either under a gravity environment on ground or a microgravity environment in space, involves complicated phenomena of fluid motions in gas or liquid phases as well as interaction of various species. To obtain important physical insight, it is very necessary to provide gross-field optical diagnostics for monitoring various physical properties. Materials processing inhibits easy access by ordinary instruments and thus characterizing gross-field physical properties is very challenging. Typical properties of importance can be fluid velocity, temperature, and species concentration for fluids, and surface topology and defects for solids. Observing surface grow rate during crystal growth is also important. Material microstructures, i.e., integrity of crystal structures, is strongly influenced by the existence of thermally-induced flow as well as local nucleation of particles during solidification, which may act in many detrimental ways. In both ground-based and microgravity experiments, the nature of product property changes resulting from three-dimensional fluid or particle motions need be characterized. Gross-field diagnostics is thus required to identify their effects on product defects and process deficiencies. The quantitative visualization techniques can also be used for validation of numerical modeling. For optical nonintrusive gross-field diagnostic techniques, two approaches were developed as summer projects. One optical approach allows us to provide information of species concentration and temperature for monitoring in real time. The other approach, that is, the concept which is formulated for detection of surface topography measurement can provide unprecedented spatial resolution during crystal growth.

Cha, Soyoung Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flame Chemistry Workshop: a perspective on challenges and strategic actions in combustion experiments and chemical kinetics modeling

Continued progress in the development of predictive models for combustion chemistry—including ignition and flame behavior, species evolution, and combustion system performance—relies on overcoming enduring and emerging challenges in experimental measurements, theoretical formulations, and chemical kinetics mechanism construction. As combustion science continues to coincide with advances in sustainable fuels development, plasma technologies, and automated modeling capabilities, the need for coordinated, community-driven strategies is essential. The Flame Chemistry Workshop (FCWS), held biennially before the International Symposium on Combustion, serves as a dedicated platform to identify, consolidate, and address these challenges in a structured and collaborative manner. This perspective arises from discussions at the 7th FCWS in Milan, Italy (2024), and presents a collective view of the critical barriers currently limiting progress. Across the five technical domains discussed during the 7th FCWS – sustainable fuels combustion, advanced diagnostics for combustion measurements, experiments and modeling in plasma combustion, artificial intelligence and automated methods for theory and mechanisms generation, and chemical kinetic models—a series of persistent and emerging scientific challenges were identified, highlighting the need for deeper integration between three areas: theory, experiments, and modeling. In conclusion, the present article concisely describes present challenges that were identified in each of the technical domains in an effort to streamline and coordinate solutions to accelerate progress in combustion science.

Chemical kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of a synthetic fast ion loss detector model for Wendelstein 7-X

Abstract We present the first validated synthetic diagnostic for fast ion loss detectors (FILDs) in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. This model has been developed on, and validated against experimental data from, a FILD provided by the National Institute for Fusion Science (NIFS-FILD), with potential future applicability to the existing Faraday Cup FILD (FC-FILD) on W7-X as well as the scintillating FILD (S-FILD) currently under development. A workflow combining Monte Carlo codes BEAMS3D and ASCOT5 is used to track fast ions produced by neutral beam injection from the moment of ionization until they are thermalized or lost from the last closed flux surface, and from there to a virtual plane which serves as a projection of the entrance aperture to the FILD. Simulations in ASCOT5 are analyzed via a geometric method to determine the probability of transmission through the FILD aperture and onto the detector as a function of normalized momentum, pitch angle, gyrophase, and position at the virtual plane. This probability is then applied to the simulated ions arriving from the plasma, producing a simulated signal from a computationally tractable number of simulated fast ions. Simulated signals are presented for two W7-X experiments with neutral beam injection and quantitatively compared with experimental measurements from the NIFS-FILD diagnostic. An estimate of the frequency of charge-exchange with neutral particles in the edge is performed, and it is found that this process may have a significant impact on the measured signals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1995

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 7: Proceedings of the Workshop on the GEOS-1 Five-year Assimilation

The primary objective of the three-day workshop on results from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) five-year assimilation was to provide timely feedback from the data users concerning the strengths and weaknesses of version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilated products. A second objective was to assess user satisfaction with the current methods of data access and retrieval. There were a total of 49 presentations, with about half (23) of the presentations from scientists from outside of Goddard. The first two days were devoted to applications of data: studies of the energy diagnostics, precipitation and diabatic heating, hydrological modeling and moisture transport, cloud forcing and validation, various aspects of intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability, ocean wind stress applications, and validation of surface fluxes. The last day included talks from the National Meteorological Center (NMC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the United States Navy, and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Suarez, Max J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

LICS Modeling [Slides]

We propose to design a new diagnostic based on laser inverse Compton scattering (LICS) to study the dynamics of runaway electron formation during killer-pellet triggered disruptions in DIII-D, and their subsequent loss. Obtaining a better understanding of transient runaway electrons (and how to suppress them) is one of the highest priorities of the US fusion program. To enable this, we need better measurements of the runaway electron population during and after disruptions. We intend to measure point-wise time-resolved spatial profile and energy distributions of the runaway electrons while they are in the core of the tokamak plasma. While LICS measurements of relativistic e-beams have been successfully made on accelerators, they have never been done in a tokamak. We bring two innovations to this diagnostic concept which should enable 10 times better signal-to-noise ratios than previously envisioned. In particular, we will marry bright short pulse (10’s of picosecond) laser technologies with the availability of short-pulse gated x-ray imagers developed at Los Alamos for the National Ignition Facility (NIF), to reject noise generated by the tokamak and plasma environment. We will generate a Conceptual Physics Basis, a Preliminary Design, and a Final Design package, with associated DIII-D reviews, along with prototype component testing for the diagnostic over the course of the two year duration of this proposal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Process Model for ITCZ Narrowing under Warming Highlights Clear-Sky Water Vapor Feedbacks and Gross Moist Stability Changes in AMIP Models

Tropical areas with mean upward motion—and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification—similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIP-model spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ~0.46. Here, the simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions—highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Verification of Functional Fault Models and the Use of Resource Efficient Verification Tools

Functional fault models (FFMs) are a directed graph representation of the failure effect propagation paths within a system's physical architecture and are used to support development and real-time diagnostics of complex systems. Verification of these models is required to confirm that the FFMs are correctly built and accurately represent the underlying physical system. However, a manual, comprehensive verification process applied to the FFMs was found to be error prone due to the intensive and customized process necessary to verify each individual component model and to require a burdensome level of resources. To address this problem, automated verification tools have been developed and utilized to mitigate these key pitfalls. This paper discusses the verification of the FFMs and presents the tools that were developed to make the verification process more efficient and effective.

reliability↗

DOE OSTI2015

Computer model for electrochemical cell performance loss over time in terms of capacity, power, and conductance (CPC)

Available capacity, power, and cell conductance figure centrally into performance characterization of electrochemical cells (such as Li-ion cells) over their service life. For example, capacity loss in Li-ion cells is due to a combination of mechanisms, including loss of free available lithium, loss of active host sites, shifts in the potential-capacity curve, etc. Further distinctions can be made regarding irreversible and reversible capacity loss mechanisms. There are tandem needs for accurate interpretation of capacity at characterization conditions (cycling rate, temperature, etc.) and for robust self-consistent modeling techniques that can be used for diagnostic analysis of cell data as well as forecasting of future performance. Analogous issues exist for aging effects on cell conductance and available power. To address these needs, a modeling capability was developed that provides a systematic analysis of the contributing factors to battery performance loss over aging and to act as a regression/prediction platform for cell performance. The modeling basis is a summation of self-consistent chemical kinetics rate expressions, which as individual expressions each covers a distinct mechanism (e.g., loss of active host sites, lithium loss), but collectively account for the net loss of premier metrics (e.g., capacity) over time for a particular characterization condition. Specifically, sigmoid-based rate expressions are utilized to describe each contribution to performance loss. Through additional mathematical development another tier of expressions is derived and used to perform differential analyses and segregate irreversible versus reversible contributions, as well as to determine concentration profiles over cell aging for affected Li+ ion inventory and fraction of active sites that remain at each time step. Reversible fade components are surmised by comparing fade rates at fast versus slow cycling conditions. The model is easily utilized for predictive calculations so that future capacity performance can be estimated. The invention covers mathematical and theoretical frameworks, and demonstrates application to various Li-ion cells covering test periods that vary in duration, and shows model predictions well past the end of test periods. Version 2.0 Enhancements: the code now covers path-dependent aging scenarios, wherein the framework allows for arbitrarily-chosen aging conditions over a timeline to accommodate prediction of battery aging over a multiplicity of changing conditions. The code framework also allows for cell conductance and power loss evaluations over cell aging, analysis of series strings that contain a thermal anomaly (hot spot), and evaluation of battery thermal management parameters that impact battery lifetimes. Lastly, a comprehensive GUI now resides in the Ver. 2.0 code.

Gering, KevinL.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Multidimensional Progenitor Perturbations on Core-collapse Supernova Explosions

Numerical studies of core-collapse supernovae have demonstrated the importance of nonradial motions in precollapse progenitors on the explosion outcome. We use the Chimera neutrino radiation hydrodynamics code running seven two-dimensional simulations of 15 M⊙ progenitors with different progenitor structures introduced by different one- and two-dimensional precollapse stellar evolution environments to examine the impacts of stellar structure and nonspherical motion in the precollapse progenitor on the development of explosions. We compare the explosion evolution of these models in terms of shock dynamics, diagnostic energy, neutrino heating, accretion, explosion geometry, nuclear abundances, and turbulent convection. We also analyze how stochastic variation impacts our simulations. Contrary to results reported in prior studies examining the impacts of multidimensional progenitors, we observe similar shock revival times and explosion development in our simulations despite differences in initial compositions and structures. We find no discernible impact from the accretion of nonradial perturbations from a multi-D progenitor onto the stalled shock in the revival and strength of explosion, as fully developed neutrino-driven convection behind the stalled shock is similar for all our models. For models with physically sourced noise in the iron core, a strong oscillation of the shock occurs after bounce and deflects infall laterally, and accelerates the saturation of the lateral turbulent kinetic energy. An examination of model stochasticity shows that any prior expected impacts on explosive outcome due to convection-related perturbations lie below the detectable threshold of numerical variation.

Chen, Chien-Hui [North Carolina State University]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutron Induced Nuclear Reaction Cross Sections for Radiochemistry in the Region of Thallium, Lead, and Bismuth

We have developed a set of modeled nuclear reaction cross sections for use in radiochemical detector diagnostics. Systematics for the input parameters required by the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model developed in the TALYS code system are used to calculate neutron induced nuclear reaction cross sections for targets ranging from Thallium (Z = 81) to Bismuth (Z = 83).

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

NASA NTRS2022

Coevolution of Machine Learning and Process-Based Modelling to Revolutionize Earth and Environmental Sciences: A Perspective

Machine learning (ML) applications in Earth and environmental sciences (EES) have gained incredible momentum in recent years. However, these ML applications have largely evolved in ‘isolation’ from the mechanistic, process-based modelling (PBM) paradigms, which have historically been the cornerstone of scientific discovery and policy support. In this perspective, we assert that the cultural barriers between the ML and PBM communities limit the potential of ML, and even its ‘hybridization’ with PBM, for EES applications. Fundamental, but often ignored, differences between ML and PBM are discussed as well as their strengths and weaknesses in light of three overarching modelling objectives in EES, (1) nowcasting and prediction, (2) scenario analysis, and (3) diagnostic learning. The paper ponders over a ‘coevolutionary’ approach to model building, shifting away from a borrowing to a co-creation culture, to develop a generation of models that leverage the unique strengths of ML such as scalability to big data and high-dimensional mapping, while remaining faithful to process-based knowledge base and principles of model explainability and interpretability, and therefore, falsifiability.

Saman Razavi↗

NASA NTRS2015

Plume Characterization of a Laboratory Model 22 N GPIM Thruster via High-Frequency Raman Spectroscopy

The Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM) will demonstrate the capability of a green propulsion system, specifically, one using the monopropellant, AF-M315E. One of the risks identified for GPIM is potential contamination of sensitive areas of the spacecraft from the effluents in the plumes of AF-M315E thrusters. Plume characterization of a laboratory-model 22 N thruster via optical diagnostics was conducted at NASA GRC in a space-simulated environment. A high-frequency pulsed laser was coupled with an electron-multiplied ICCD camera to perform Raman spectroscopy in the near-field, low-pressure plume. The Raman data yielded plume constituents and temperatures over a range of thruster chamber pressures and as a function of thruster (catalyst) operating time. Schlieren images of the near-field plume enabled calculation of plume velocities and revealed general plume structure of the otherwise invisible plume. The measured velocities are compared to those predicted by a two-dimensional, kinetic model. Trends in data and numerical results are presented from catalyst mid-life to end-of-life. The results of this investigation were coupled with the Raman and Schlieren data to provide an anchor for plume impingement analysis presented in a companion paper. The results of both analyses will be used to improve understanding of the nature of AF-M315E plumes and their impacts to GPIM and other future missions.

Raman Spectroscopy↗