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At least 883 records · Page 49

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods of Association Tested on Dense Nodal Arrays

The association of phase picks to form events is one of the fundamental components of seismology. Large and dense sensor networks, such as >1000 geophone arrays (and distributed acoustic sensing), offer unique challenges in association due to the vast numbers of observations and high likelihood of errant picks. In addition, the large number of stations can greatly increase the time it takes to perform the association. For this reason, machine learning (ML) methods might provide a more optimal method of association for such networks. In this work, we examine how well ML methods (e.g., Gaussian mixture model association, PhaseLink, and Graph Earthquake Neural Interpretation Engine) can incorporate dense seismic arrays into regional networks and how well they handle the increasing numbers of stations. Here, we test their capabilities on two dense seismic deployments, one within Rock Valley Nevada (52 nodes and a 9-station sparse local network), and the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma dense nodal array (>1800 vertical-component geophones). Processing data from these two different styles of dense seismic deployments allows testing of how the ML algorithms can merge array data with a broader regional network, how they deal with poorly picked phases, and how they handle anthropogenic noise. We compare the ML-associated bulletins to those obtained using the Rapid Earthquake Association and Location algorithm, a more traditional method of association. We find that there are very small differences in results between the methods for small networks (<100 stations) with low pick rates. For large networks (>1000), there are enough errant picks that some of the ML methods start to create false events out of noise. We also find that the ML methods vary in computation time significantly but are all faster than the traditional method tested here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Indirect Search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles in the Sun Using Upward-going Muons in NOvA

I present the first Dark Matter search results using the full data set collected with the upward-going muon trigger in NOvA. Weakly Interactive Massive Particles (WIMPs) are a theoretical non-baryonic form of Dark Matter. The nature of Dark Matter is one of the most exciting open questions in modern physics. Though its existence can be inferred by astrophysical evidence, its properties are not yet understood. If we assume that Dark Matter particles can produce Standard Model particles through their interactions, an indirect search can help shed light on this mystery.The NOvA collaboration has built a 14 kton, fine-grained, low-Z, total absorption tracking calorimeter at an off-axis angle to the NuMI neutrino beam. Even though the detector is optimized to observe electron neutrino appearance from a muon neutrino beam, it has a unique potential for more exotic searches given its excellent granularity and energy resolution and relatively low-energy neutrino thresholds. In fact, with an efficient upward-going muon trigger and sufficient background suppression offline, NOvA is capable of a competitive indirect Dark Matter search for low-mass WIMPs.The idea of the upward-going muon trigger is first to select high-quality muon tracks, then use the timing information of all of the hits of each track to estimate directionality. In this way, the background flux is suppressed by more than a factor of 10^5 at trigger level to a rate of approximately 1 Hz. To further optimize this search, we use only upward-going muons that point to the Sun, so our search occurs at night when the Sun is on the other side of the Earth. This strategy also allows us to use the time when the Sun is above the horizon as a control region to estimate the background. Ultimately, implementation of a cut based and maximum likelihood analysis provides a powerful tool for rejecting background and selecting a sample of neutrino-induced upward-going muons. The overall background rejection power achieved by the analysis is substantial and impressive. Starting with approximately 150,000 events per second, we reduced it to 40 events per year. Since no statistically significant excess was found, a 90\% C.L. upper limit on the expected muon flux of upward-going muons has been set using the upper limit on the number of events given the number of observed events in the signal region. Lastly, by assuming the theory behind the upward-going muon flux, a limit on the WIMP-nucleon spin-dependent cross-section in the Sun was estimated. Although the limits on the spin-dependent cross-section do not appear to be competitive with previous indirect Dark Matter searches, the upward-going muon flux limits are promising. The upward-going muon flux limits could extend these results to a broader class of models that are not specific to the dark matter theory but produce upward-going muons, leading to competitive results.

Principato, Cristiana↗

Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.

Less, Brennan↗

The Policy Mullet: Good Intentions in the Front, Bad Policy in the Back

To achieve important policy goals like decarbonization, energy efficiency, and social justice, it is important to translate high-level policy into operational practice. Establishing sustainable purchasing goals has been one important part of this translation. However, not all sustainable purchasing policies are equally effective for organizations. In this study, we analyze sustainable purchasing policies collected from 30 public-sector organizations. We discuss a theoretical framework of optimal policy language and use that framework to evaluate the policies we collected. We believe that an ideal sustainable purchasing policy can increase the likelihood of implementation success by providing more product-specific guidance, giving authority to procurement staff, setting performance targets, and requiring reporting to account for progress. In our review of public sector sustainable purchasing policies, we found that policy language is less than ideal when measured against the framework. Based on our findings, we highlight the best practice language organizations can use in their sustainable purchasing policies to meet sustainability goals. While there is more work needed to inform best practices with sustainable purchasing policies, we recommend that organizations utilize existing frameworks when developing a sustainable purchasing policy to encourage better implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Field Demonstration of the Brick Ontology to Scale up the Deployment of ASHRAE Guideline 36 Control Sequences

Many commercial buildings have a vast network of sensors as part of their building automation systems (BAS) that allows opportunities for energy consumption and cost savings by deploying advanced control sequences. However, this resource is often underutilized since BAS are typically programmed with simple control sequences with limited potential to deliver on these opportunities. The recent availability of ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36) with advanced HVAC control sequences supports control retrofits in existing buildings to unlock much of the savings potential. However, barriers such as the lack of standard naming convention of building assets and data points, proprietary equipment and BAS, and the inherent uniqueness of buildings and their systems prevent building stakeholders from adopting any “plug-and-play” implementation of G36. Instead, control vendors must often undertake the manual and labor-intensive point mapping process to identify a data stream’s functional and spatial relationship within the HVAC system along with other relevant contexts and map it to the new control sequences. The vendor must carry out the point mapping process in each individual building since the mapping is unlikely to port over to another building. Even for the same building, the point mapping process can occur multiple times if various control vendors implement different control retrofits and/or multiple control retrofits happen over the lifecycle of the building. Then, there is the likelihood that G36 control sequences are programmed uniquely to the building, preventing the same implementation from being reused in another. Therefore, this paper presents a field demonstration of how we leveraged the Brick ontology with BACnet, OpenBuildingControl’s Control Description Language (CDL), and open-source support tools to implement scalable and portable advanced building controls. These tools provide standardized semantic descriptions and relationships of the building’s assets and data points (Brick), standardized communication protocol to read from and write to the building’s BAS (BACnet), and standardized code implementations (CDL) of standardized advanced control strategies (G36). We implemented G36’s hot water supply temperature setpoint reset in a Berkeley, CA building for this field demonstration. This field demonstration aims to show how integrating these tools may streamline the deployment of advanced control sequences such as G36 in a consistent manner regardless of differences found across buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Value-of-Information Analysis of a Fracture Prediction Method

A core-based fracture prediction method is used to illustrate a Value of Information (VOI) decision-analysis protocol to inform completion decisions in tight-gas sandstones. The ratio of late host-rock cement to available pore volume or degradation index uses petrographic observations of cement distributions in core (including sidewall cores) to predict whether nearby but unsampled fractures (widths > 0.5 to 1 mm) are sealed (non-conductive) or open (conductive). Measurements from four sandstone plays suggest that the index correctly predicts open vs. sealed fractures with an accuracy in excess of 80%. The value added is calculated using Bayesian inference in which accuracy of the index serves as the likelihood of the prior distribution of open fractures to assess the posterior probability that data represent a useful predictor of producibility. VOI of the prediction method is more than three times the cost to acquire the data. VOI is most sensitive to play-specific geologic and cost parameters including cost to drill, expected revenue from a successful well, cost of completion, cost of acquiring data for the index, and fracture probability distributions. The approach provides a way to value acquiring fracture data and points to a need for zone-specific production data in tight-gas sandstones.

02 PETROLEUM↗

High-dimensional and permutation invariant anomaly detection

Methods for anomaly detection of new physics processes are often limited to low-dimensional spaces due to the difficulty of learning high-dimensional probability densities. Particularly at the constituent level, incorporating desirable properties such as permutation invariance and variable-length inputs becomes difficult within popular density estimation methods. In this work, we introduce a permutation-invariant density estimator for particle physics data based on diffusion models, specifically designed to handle variable-length inputs. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology by utilizing the learned density as a permutation-invariant anomaly detection score, effectively identifying jets with low likelihood under the background-only hypothesis. To validate our density estimation method, we investigate the ratio of learned densities and compare to those obtained by a supervised classification algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Initial Simulations of Empty Room Collapse and Reconsolidation at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geologic repository for defense-related nuclear waste. If left undisturbed, the virtually impermeable rock salt surrounding the repository will isolate the nuclear waste from the biosphere. If humans accidentally intrude into the repository in the future, then the likelihood of a radionuclide release to the biosphere will depend significantly on the porosity and permeability of the repository itself. Room ceilings and walls at the WIPP tend to collapse over time, causing rubble piles to form on floors of empty rooms. The surrounding rock formation will gradually compact these rubble piles until they eventually become solid salt, but the length of time for a rubble pile to reach a certain porosity and permeability is unknown. This report details the first efforts to build models to predict the porosity and permeability evolution of an empty room as it closes. Conventional geomechanical numerical methods would struggle to model empty room collapse and rubble pile consolidation, so three different meshless methods, the Immersed Isogeometric Analysis Meshfree, Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), and the Conformal Reproducing Kernel method, were assessed. First, the meshless methods and the finite element method each simulated gradual room closure, without ceiling or wall collapse. All three methods produced equivalent room closure predictions with comparable computational speed. Second, the Immersed Isogeometric Analysis Meshfree method and RKPM simulated two-dimensional empty room collapse and rubble pile consolidation. Both methods successfully simulated large viscoplastic deformations, fracture, and rubble pile rearrangement to produce qualitatively realistic results. In addition to geomechanical simulations, the flow channels in damaged salt and crushed salt were measured using micro-computed tomography, and input into a computational fluid dynamics simulation to predict the salt's permeability. Although room for improvement exists, the current simulation approaches appear promising.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Inventory and Probabilistic Function of Natural Hazards in the United States: July 19, 2018 - September 18, 2018

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a standardized risk assessment process that considers the location-specific vulnerabilities and threats (climate-related as well as human-caused) at a site to generate a ranked list of organizational risks and associated mitigation options for reducing those risks. To support this effort, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team, was selected to provide climate science expertise to develop a comprehensive inventory and probabilistic function of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and sea level rise) for the entire United States by region. The inventory of climate-related hazards and the associated likelihood scores are incorporated into a companion risk assessment tool enabling standardized comparisons of risk at sites across the country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluation of Multi-cell Failure Propagation

Failure propagation testing is of increasing interest to the designers and end users of battery systems. One of the chief difficulties, however, is choosing an appropriate initiation method to perform the test. Single cell abuse testing is typically used to initiate thermal runaway but this can involve a large amount of additional energy injected into the system. It is assumed that this will have some impact on the behavior of a propagating thermal runaway event, but there is little data available as to how significant this would be. Further, it is ultimately difficult to develop viable propagation tests for compliance and public safety activities without better knowledge of how test methods will impact the results. This work looks at propagating battery failure with a variety of chemistries, formats, configurations and initiation methods to determine the level of significance of the chosen initiation method on the test results. We have ultimately found while there is some impact on the detailed results of propagation testing, in most cases other factors, particularly the energy density of the system play a much greater role in the likelihood of a propagation event consuming an entire battery. We have also provided some guidelines for test design to support best practices in testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Improving the Success of Underrepresented Populations in Computer and Computational Science Research with the CRA-W Women and URMD Grad Cohort Workshops

The Computing Research Association’s Committee on Widening Participation (CRA-WP) aims to increase the number of individual researchers from underrepresented groups in computing (UGC) (including women, underrepresented minorities, and persons with disabilities) who participate and succeed in computer science research at every stage of the research pipeline. Achieving these objectives requires that an increasing number of individuals from UGC start and progress to the next stage. The CRA-WP Grad Cohort Workshops are focused at the graduate level to maximize the likelihood participants will successfully complete their graduate degrees. Factors such as role models, skills, competence, confidence, mentoring, social support, and development of identity as a researcher help students to persist in graduate school, while factors such as sexism, racism, and dissatisfaction with their graduate program may cause them to leave. We, therefore, help first, second, and third year students build their skills, research strategies, and confidence; meet potential mentors from outside their institutions; develop connections with each other and with their research communities; and inform them about strategies for successful publishing, speaking, and advisor management strategies. By targeting early graduate students, we seek to help them stay in graduate school and in research.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Event Definition for the Automated Detection of Nuclear Proliferation Activities

In FY2020, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in collaboration with the Discovery Analytics Center (DAC) at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (VT) began developing a demonstration prototype system that uses multiple machine learning and data analytic methods on largescale open data sources to identify new, developing, or undeclared nuclear programs. One of the most challenging aspects of applying machine learning techniques to such a problem is the high likelihood of extremely sparse data from disparate sources. To overcome this challenge, the current work will use a strategic combination of supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised learning techniques to ingest and fuse data streams to make a forecast of nuclear activities in a targeted geospatial location. Identifying potential data sources and training supervised learning algorithms is dependent upon the development of a robust foundation of targeted event domains that fundamentally define the nuclear activities of interest. This report documents the definition of a hierarchical structure for both nuclear activity and event domains that will be used to guide the research team in development or use of existing semantic dictionaries that are instrumental to searching, parsing, and categorizing events for the forecasting system’s use.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Comparison of the Environmental Effects of Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capabilities are generally characterized as either open-loop or closed-loop. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) defines open-loop PSH as “continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature,” and closed-loop PSH as “not continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature.” All the PSH projects constructed in the United States to date are open-loop, so the potential environmental effects of closed-loop systems are not as well documented as the effects of open-loop systems. To address this knowledge gap, the DOE Water Power Technologies Office, under its HydroWIRES Initiative, has prepared this report to: (1) compare the potential environmental effects of open-loop PSH projects with those of closed-loop PSH projects; (2) describe how these effects are being avoided, minimized, or mitigated at existing projects in other countries and proposed projects in the United States; and (3) discuss the relative significance of the environmental issues. The report begins with a brief introduction on the current status of PSH development in the United States. Next, the report describes the current Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licensing process, emphasizing some recent regulatory changes that affect closed-loop PSH development. The report then provides a summary comparison of the environmental effects of constructing and operating open-loop and closed-loop PSH systems and discusses the relative significance of those issues. This comparison and discussion are based on the results of a literature review and a review of FERC licensing records. The literature review includes journal articles, technical reports, and presentations on the environmental effects of PSH systems. It includes literature from the United States as well as countries where closed-loop PSH projects have been constructed. The FERC records review examines the FERC licensing record (e.g., National Environmental Policy Act documents and license orders) to identify the environmental effects anticipated and mitigation measures proposed for six of the closed-loop PSH projects currently licensed or permitted in the United States. For comparison, the FERC records review also discusses the environmental effects and mitigation measures for four open-loop PSH projects proposed or currently operating in the United States. The comparison of effects between open-loop and closed-loop projects is relative; that is, it characterizes the impacts of each project type as generally lower or higher than another project type. The comparison reflects general trends among project types because there are sometimes exceptions to the examples cited. The comparison is based on both spatial (location) and temporal (duration) factors and reflects both the severity and likelihood of effects. The report concludes that the environmental effects of closed-loop PSH projects are generally lower (i.e., more localized and of shorter duration) than those of open-loop PSH projects because they are located “off-stream,” minimizing aquatic and terrestrial impacts, and often have greater siting flexibility than open-loop PSH projects. For certain closed-loop project designs, however, impacts to groundwater may be higher relative to open-loop projects and should be considered in any environmental review.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Stainless Steel Coating Test Report

A process was developed to coat 316L stainless steel pieces having very low levels of fixed contamination on their surface (~100 dpm/100 cm²). The coating process served to significantly decrease the likelihood of any fixed contamination becoming loose contamination due to physical shocks. Prior to coating, the stainless steel was etched with a commercial methane sulfonic acid (MSA) solution in a heated ultrasonic bath, rinsed with deionized water, cleaned with a basic detergent solution, and then rinsed with deionized water. The MSA etched the surface of the stainless-steel pieces, creating a more favorable surface on which the coating could adhere. Due to the short timeline of the project, only commercially available clear coating products were considered. The clear coating had to be wear-resistant, shock resistant, radiation resistant, and have high adhesion to the surface of the stainless steel. Adhesion of coatings to stainless steel is notoriously difficult. A commercial, high molecular weight polymer coating was found that met these requirements. The adhesion properties of this coating to stainless steel are very good, and are significantly improved by the etching process. The etching process results in a higher surface area that is free of debris and other residues, making the surface much more wetable, and at the same time creating a favorable surface topography for adhesion. The polymer in its uncured form is a low viscosity liquid. It can be applied by brush or pipette, and it cures in air alone, but heat is required to speed up curing and attain the highest performance of the cured polymer. As the project progressed, the project team became interested in the composition of the selected commercial polymer coating, and in ways that this polymer coating could be made more wear resistant and potentially more radiation resistant. Nano-particle addition was chosen as the preferred way to achieve higher performance. Therefore, a series of tests were planned and performed. This report summarizes these tests, and presents the results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Conceptual Framework to Describe Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Interactions

Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) resources provide important utility system and ratepayer benefits. At the same time, the rapid change in the amount and type of variable renewable energy, like solar and wind, is reshaping the role and economic value of EE and DR, and will likely affect time-dependent valuation of EE and DR measures. Utilities are increasingly interested in integrating EE and DR measures and technologies (as well as other distributed energy resources) as a strategic approach to improve their collective cost-effectiveness and performance. However, the specific EE and DR features that may be best integrated, the interplay between changing EE and DR resource potential, and the resulting utility system impacts, are not well understood. We develop a framework to identify the EE and DR attributes, system conditions, and technological factors that are likely to drive interactions between EE and DR. We apply the framework to example measures with different technology specifics (e.g., presence of controls, building type, and targeted end use) in the context of different system conditions (e.g., peak demand, load-building periods during high renewable generation output). Ultimately, the framework defines EE and DR interactions not only by the change in discretionary load (i.e., DR potential) but also by the change in likelihood of participation in EE and DR programs—as well as the change in system need for, and the overall availability of, EE and DR resources. The framework is intended to improve the integration of EE and DR in utility operational and planning activities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SEDONA: SpEctroscopic Detection of Nerve Agents

Los Alamos National Laboratory developed the only portable screener to accurately detect the chemical nerve agents, providing results in seconds. Current airport detection system cannot scan for the threat of organophosphorus nerve agents and insecticides. Small quantities of these toxic chemicals can very quickly cause widespread exposure and severe symptoms. SEDONA screens through an unopened bottle using the principles of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The system could be deployed and operated with minimal training. SEDONA dramatically reduces the likelihood of a successful nerve agent attack at airports, government buildings, embassies, sporting events, concerts, and political rallies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Solar Photovoltaics in Severe Weather: Cost Considerations for Storm Hardening PV Systems for Resilience

Solar photovoltaic (PV) power has many advantages as a resilient power source, including the ability to provide power after a natural disaster. While solar arrays often survive severe weather events, systems are occasionally compromised and left unable to provide power. For PV systems to act as resilient power providers, they must remain operational. Building a system that is more likely to survive a storm comes at a cost, though. Previous efforts have identified various system measures and practices that can increase the likelihood of a PV system surviving a severe weather event. But what is the cost premium for a storm hardened PV system? This report provides initial estimates for the up-front cost premiums for various methods of storm hardening PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗