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Continuing Global SO2 Data Record from OMI and SNPP/OMPS to JPSS-1/NOAA-20/OMPS

Since 2004, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura spacecraft has been providing global observations that help to constrain the sources, transport, and environmental impacts of anthropogonic and volcanic SO2. The OMI SO2 data record is now being continued with the NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP)/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) launched in 2011. Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO2 products are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) based spectral fitting algorithm. This data-driven technique inherently accounts for various instrumental factors and geophysical interferences, leading to high-quality, consistent SO2 retrievals between OMI and SNPP/OMPS, despite coarser spectral (~0.5 nm vs. ~1 nm) and spatial (13  24 km2 vs. 50  50 km2 at nadir) resolution for the latter. In this presentation, we describe our effort to continue the long-term SO2 climate data record using measurements from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)-1/NOAA-20 (N20)/OMPS. Launched in 2017, the N20/OMPS is a follow-on for SNPP/OMPS but features a spatial resolution (17  13 km2) that is comparable with OMI. We will discuss our progress implementing the PCA SO2 algorithm with N20/OMPS, especially algorithmic improvements to further reduce retrieval noise and bias for large volcanic eruptions. We will present examples for both continuously emitting sources (e.g., power plants in India and oil/gas fields in the Middle East) and volcanic eruptions (e.g., Raikoke in 2019). We will also compare N20/OMPS SO2 retrievals with OMI and SNPP/OMPS, as well as other instruments such as the ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P)/TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). To assess the ability of N20/OMPS to monitor and quantify SO2 sources, we will run the level 2 retrievals through a top-down emission algorithm to estimate the SO2 emission strengths for a number of point sources. Finally, we will outline our plan for further algorithm refinement and public data release.

SO2↗

NASA NTRS2008

The J-2X Upper Stage Engine: From Heritage to Hardware

NASA's Global Exploration Strategy requires safe, reliable, robust, efficient transportation to support sustainable operations from Earth to orbit and into the far reaches of the solar system. NASA selected the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle to provide that transportation. Guiding principles in creating the architecture represented by the Ares vehicles were the maximum use of heritage hardware and legacy knowledge, particularly Space Shuttle assets, and commonality between the Ares vehicles where possible to streamline the hardware development approach and reduce programmatic, technical, and budget risks. The J-2X exemplifies those goals. It was selected by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) as the upper stage propulsion for the Ares I Upper Stage and the Ares V Earth Departure Stage (EDS). The J-2X is an evolved version ofthe historic J-2 engine that successfully powered the second stage of the Saturn I launch vehicle and the second and third stages of the Saturn V launch vehicle. The Constellation architecture, however, requires performance greater than its predecessor. The new architecture calls for larger payloads delivered to the Moon and demands greater loss of mission reliability and numerous other requirements associated with human rating that were not applied to the original J-2. As a result, the J-2X must operate at much higher temperatures, pressures, and flow rates than the heritage J-2, making it one of the highest performing gas generator cycle engines ever built, approaching the efficiency of more complex stage combustion engines. Development is focused on early risk mitigation, component and subassembly test, and engine system test. The development plans include testing engine components, including the subscale injector, main igniter, powerpack assembly (turbopumps, gas generator and associated ducting and structural mounts), full-scale gas generator, valves, and control software with hardware-in-the-loop. Testing expanded in 2007, accompanied by the refinement of the design through several key milestones. This paper discusses those 2007 tests and milestones, as well as updates key developments in 2008.

Byrd, THomas↗

NASA NTRS2009

Determining Locations by Use of Networks of Passive Beacons

Networks of passive radio beacons spanning moderate-sized terrain areas have been proposed to aid navigation of small robotic aircraft that would be used to explore Saturn s moon Titan. Such networks could also be used on Earth to aid navigation of robotic aircraft, land vehicles, or vessels engaged in exploration or reconnaissance in situations or locations (e.g., underwater locations) in which Global Positioning System (GPS) signals are unreliable or unavailable. Prior to use, it would be necessary to pre-position the beacons at known locations that would be determined by use of one or more precise independent global navigation system(s). Thereafter, while navigating over the area spanned by a given network of passive beacons, an exploratory robot would use the beacons to determine its position precisely relative to the known beacon positions (see figure). If it were necessary for the robot to explore multiple, separated terrain areas spanned by different networks of beacons, the robot could use a long-haul, relatively coarse global navigation system for the lower-precision position determination needed during transit between such areas. The proposed method of precise determination of position of an exploratory robot relative to the positions of passive radio beacons is based partly on the principles of radar and partly on the principles of radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags. The robot would transmit radar-like signals that would be modified and reflected by the passive beacons. The distance to each beacon would be determined from the roundtrip propagation time and/or round-trip phase shift of the signal returning from that beacon. Signals returned from different beacons could be distinguished by means of their RFID characteristics. Alternatively or in addition, the antenna of each beacon could be designed to radiate in a unique pattern that could be identified by the navigation system. Also, alternatively or in addition, sets of identical beacons could be deployed in unique configurations such that the navigation system could identify their unique combinations of radio-frequency reflections as an alternative to leveraging the uniqueness of the RFID tags. The degree of dimensional accuracy would depend not only on the locations of the beacons but also on the number of beacon signals received, the number of samples of each signal, the motion of the robot, and the time intervals between samples. At one extreme, a single sample of the return signal from a single beacon could be used to determine the distance from that beacon and hence to determine that the robot is located somewhere on a sphere, the radius of which equals that distance and the center of which lies at the beacon. In a less extreme example, the three-dimensional position of the robot could be determined with fair precision from a single sample of the signal from each of three beacons. In intermediate cases, position estimates could be refined and/or position ambiguities could be resolved by use of supplementary readings of an altimeter and other instruments aboard the robot.

Okino, Clayton↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance assessment for climate intervention (PACI): preliminary application to a stratospheric aerosol injection scenario

As the prospect of exceeding global temperature targets set forth in the Paris Agreement becomes more likely, methods of climate intervention are increasingly being explored. With this increased interest there is a need for an assessment process to understand the range of impacts across different scenarios against a set of performance goals in order to support policy decisions. The methodology and tools developed for Performance Assessment (PA) for nuclear waste repositories shares many similarities with the needs and requirements for a framework for climate intervention. Using PA, we outline and test an evaluation framework for climate intervention, called Performance Assessment for Climate Intervention (PACI) with a focus on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). We define a set of key technical components for the example PACI framework which include identifying performance goals, the extent of the system, and identifying which features, events, and processes are relevant and impactful to calculating model output for the system given the performance goals. Having identified a set of performance goals, the performance of the system, including uncertainty, can then be evaluated against these goals. Using the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) scenario, we develop a set of performance goals for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought index, soil water, solar flux, and surface runoff. The assessment assumes that targets may be framed in the context of risk-risk via a risk ratio, or the ratio of the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the SAI scenario against the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the emissions scenario. From regional responses, across multiple climate variables, it is then possible to assess which pathway carries lower risk relative to the goals. The assessment is not comprehensive but rather a demonstration of the evaluation of an SAI scenario. Future work is needed to develop a more complete assessment that would provide additional simulations to cover parametric and aleatory uncertainty and enable a deeper understanding of impacts, informed scenario selection, and allow further refinements to the approach.

climate intervention↗

NASA NTRS1999

GPS Altimetry

The advent of satellite altimetry has greatly improved our ability to observe global ocean circulation. However, the swath of a single, nadir-viewing satellite altimeter is only a few km and the track spacing is several hundred km to resolve the two-dimensional structure of ocean eddies. Our goal is to increase spatial and temporal coverage by monitoring Global Positioning System (GPS) signals reflected from the ocean. A constellation of spacecraft would each carry a GPS receiver capable of recording 8 reflections simultaneously. The reflections are well distributed in azimuth and elevation and can be tracked continuously while the satellite is in view, and another is then acquired, as illustrated below. The diagram depicts a new approach at altimetry measurements where ocean surface reflected GPS signals are simultaneously tracked and processed in a GPS flight receiver in space. The reflected GPS signals from the ocean must be compared precisely with the direct GPS signals in order to infer the characteristics of the ocean from the combined data set. Understanding the features and accuracy of GPS altimetry measurement is crucial to establishing its suitability for oceanography. Preliminary work has enabled us to theoretically model the signal output of the correlator for a variety of system parameters such as wind speed (sea roughness), receiver height, incidence angle, receiver range and Doppler filter bandwidth and antenna gain. Expected signal-to-noise ratio has been estimated from which we have inferred, to a first approximation, the basic receiver gain requirements for a space-based altimeter and the expected range raw error. In 1998, work on a different task led to the extraction of the first reflected GPS signal observed from a spaceborne receiver during the 1995 Space Transportation System-68 (STS-68) Shuttle Radar Laboratory-2 (SRL-2) high resolution synthetic aperture radar mission. Good comparisons with our signal models have been obtained. Having established that only modest signal-to-noise ratios are obtainable unless very high gain antennas are used, we expect that single measurements might not provide an estimate of sea state parameters as accurate as that obtainable with traditional remote sensing instruments, if costs are limited. Therefore spatial and temporal averaging of many measurements is required. Since the receiving satellite tracks do not repeat, measurements in a given area will be used to refine the local solution as a function of time, and will define the spatial resolution. In order to make this instrument viable in space, we need to detect and process many scattered signals. In 1998 we made a first step at understanding what configurations of antenna gain and orientations capture the largest number of viable signals to be used in the subsequent spatial/temporal averaging process. Additional information is contained in the original.

Lichten, Stephen M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing a Vorticity-Velocity-Based Off-Body Solver to Perform Multifidelity Simulations of Wind Farms

Wind power has become a key player in satisfying the global energy needs. With increased market penetration, unanticipated unsteady loading induced failures, installation related reductions in power generation, and significant maintenance costs have underscored the need to predict the unsteady fluid-structure interactions related to turbine layout and off-design wind conditions. Contemporary turbine design tools are incapable of accounting for such loadings. As a result, researchers have started utilizing high-Performance-Computing (HPC) based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, such as the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored ExaWind software package, to investigate these phenomena. Unfortunately, such HPC tools are computationally expensive for routine industrial use, often because of the sheer number of cells required to resolve the wake flowfield. This paper describes a preliminary effort to address this issue by developing a vorticity-velocity based CFD off-body solver, VorTran-M2-AMReX, that integrates directly with DOE's ExaWind wind turbine analysis system to perform accurate and reliable simulations of wind turbine/farm at a lower computational cost than ExaWind alone. This article summarizes work undertaken to date concerning the assembly of the proposed analysis tool, and provides preliminary validation and verification of the VorTran-M2-AMReX off-body solver.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

DOE OSTI2013

Optimization Using Metamodeling in the Context of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME)

Predictive Design Technologies, LLC (PDT) proposed to employ Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) tools to help the manufacturing industry in the United States regain the competitive advantage in the global economy. ICME uses computational materials science tools within a holistic system in order to accelerate materials development, improve design optimization, and unify design and manufacturing. With the advent of accurate modeling and simulation along with significant increases in high performance computing (HPC) power, virtual design and manufacturing using ICME tools provide the means to reduce product development time and cost by alleviating costly trial-and-error physical design iterations while improving overall quality and manufacturing efficiency. To reduce the computational cost necessary for the large-scale HPC simulations and to make the methodology accessible for small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), metamodels are employed. Metamodels are approximate models (functional relationships between input and output variables) that can reduce the simulation times by one to two orders of magnitude. In Phase I, PDT, partnered with Mississippi State University (MSU), demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed methodology by employing MSU?s internal state variable (ISV) plasticity-damage model with the help of metamodels to optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost for tube manufacturing processes used by Plymouth Tube Company (PTC), which involves complicated temperature and mechanical loading histories. PDT quantified the microstructure-property relationships for PTC?s SAE J525 electric resistance-welded cold drawn low carbon hydraulic 1010 steel tube manufacturing processes at seven different material states and calibrated the ISV plasticity material parameters to fit experimental tensile stress-strain curves. PDT successfully performed large scale finite element (FE) simulations in an HPC environment using the ISV plasticity model in Abaqus FE analyses of the tube forming, sizing, drawing, welding, and normalizing processes. The simulation results coupled with the manufacturing cost data were used to develop prototype metamodeling (quick response) codes which could be used to predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. The developed ICME metamodeling toolkits are flexible enough to be applied to other manufacturing processes (e.g. forging, forming, casting, extrusion, rolling, stamping, and welding/joining) and metamodeling codes can run on laptop computers. Based on the work completed in Phase I, in Phase II, PDT proposes to continue to refine the ISV model by correlating and incorporating the uncertainties in the microstructure, mechanical testing, and modeling. Following the model refinement, FE analyses will be simulated and will provide even more realistic predictions as they include an appropriate window of uncertainty. Using the HPC output (FE analyses) as input, the quick-response metamodel codes will more accurately predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. Furthermore, PDT propose to employ the ICME metamodeling toolkits to help develop a new tube product using entirely new high strength steel. The modeling of the high strength steel manufacturing process will replace the costly and time consuming trial-and-error methods that were used in the tubing industry previously. This simulation-based process prototyping will greatly benefit our industrial partners by opening up new market spaces due to new products with greater capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A decade of curtailment studies demonstrates a consistent and effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines in North America

Abstract There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta‐regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species‐specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ), eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ) and silver‐haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ). We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms −1 increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver‐haired bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 3%–53%). Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms −1 cut‐in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter‐annual differences rather than inter‐site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species‐specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms −1 curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver‐haired bats. Practical implication . curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Optimizing Orbit-Instrument Configuration for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Satellite Fleet

Following the scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spearheaded by a group of NASA and NASDA scientists, their external scientific collaborators, and additional investigators within the European Union's TRMM Research Program (EUROTRMM), there has been substantial progress towards the development of a new internationally organized, global scale, and satellite-based precipitation measuring mission. The highlights of this newly developing mission are a greatly expanded scope of measuring capability and a more diversified set of science objectives. The mission is called the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Notionally, GPM will be a constellation-type mission involving a fleet of nine satellites. In this fleet, one member is referred to as the "core" spacecraft flown in an approximately 70 degree inclined non-sun-synchronous orbit, somewhat similar to TRMM in that it carries both a multi-channel polarized passive microwave radiometer (PMW) and a radar system, but in this case it will be a dual frequency Ku-Ka band radar system enabling explicit measurements of microphysical DSD properties. The remainder of fleet members are eight orbit-synchronized, sun-synchronous "constellation" spacecraft each carrying some type of multi-channel PMW radiometer, enabling no worse than 3-hour diurnal sampling over the entire globe. In this configuration the "core" spacecraft serves as a high quality reference platform for training and calibrating the PMW rain retrieval algorithms used with the "constellation" radiometers. Within NASA, GPM has advanced to the pre-formulation phase which has enabled the initiation of a set of science and technology studies which will help lead to the final mission design some time in the 2003 period. This presentation first provides an overview of the notional GPM program and mission design, including its organizational and programmatic concepts, scientific agenda, expected instrument package, and basic flight architecture. Following this introduction, we focus specifically on the last topic, that being an analysis which leads to an optimal flight architecture dictated in part by science requirements but constrained by allowable orbital mechanics, instrument scan patterns, and antenna aperture properties. Because the optimal architecture involves an interplay between orbit mechanics and instrument specifications, it is important to recognize that in attempting to serve various scientific themes, the final optimal architecture will represent a compromise concerning dynamic range, spatial resolution, sampling interval, pointing, beam coincidence, and measurement uncertainty. Moreover, cost becomes a major factor in seeking the optimal architecture through the pathways of antenna and instrument scan designs, as well as propulsion requirements associated with the orbit heights of various "constellation" members. Although the results presented at the IGARSS-2001 meeting will likely not be the fully refined flight architecture specifications, they are expected to be nearly complete.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Distributed Disdrometer and Rain Gauge Measurement Infrastructure Developed for GPM Ground Validation

Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets characterizing the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (FOV;<10 km). Collection of this data provides a means to assess retrieval errors related to beam filling and algorithm PSD assumptions. Hence, GPM Ground Validation is developing a deployable network of precipitation gauges and disdrometers to provide fine-scale measurements of PSD and precipitation accumulation variability. These observations will be combined with dual-frequency, polarimetric, and profiling radar data in a bootstrapping fashion to extend validated PSD measurements to a large coverage domain. Accordingly, a total of 24 Parsivel disdrometers(PD), 5 3rd-generation 2D Video Disdrometers (2DVD), 70 tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRG),9 weighing gauges, 7 Hot-Plate precipitation sensors (HP), and 3 Micro Rain Radars (MRR) have been procured. In liquid precipitation the suite of TBRG, PD and 2DVD instruments will quantify a broad spectrum of rain rate and PSD variability at sub-kilometer scales. In the envisioned network configuration 5 2DVDs will act as reference points for 16 collocated PD and TBRG measurements. We find that PD measurements provide similar measures of the rain PSD as observed with collocated 2DVDs (e.g., D0, Nw) for rain rates less than 15 mm/hr. For heavier rain rates we will rely on 2DVDs for PSD information. For snowfall we will combine point-redundant observations of SWER distributed over three or more locations within a FOV. Each location will contain at least one fenced weighing gauge, one HP, two PDs, and a 2DVD. MRRs will also be located at each site to extend the measurement to the column. By collecting SWER measurements using different instrument types that employ different measurement techniques our objective is to separate measurement uncertainty from natural variability in SWER and PSD. As demonstrated using C3VP polarimetric radar, gauge, and 2DVD/PD datasets these measurements can be combined to bootstrap an area wide SWER estimate via constrained modification of density-diameter and radar reflectivity-snowfall relationships. These data will be combined with snowpack, airborne microphysics, radar, radiometer, and tropospheric sounding data to refine GPM snowfall retrievals. The gauge and disdrometer instruments are being developed to operate autonomously when necessary using solar power and wireless communications. These systems will be deployed in numerous field campaigns through 2016. Planned deployment of these systems include field campaigns in Finland (2010), Oklahoma (2011), Canada (2012) and North Carolina (2013). GPM will also deploy 20 pairs of TBRGs within a 25 km2 region along the Virginia coast under NASA NPOL radar coverage in order to quantify errors in point-area rainfall measurements.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating the effect of alternative carbon allocation schemes in a land surface model (CLM4.5) on carbon fluxes, pools, and turnover in temperate forests

Abstract. How carbon (C) is allocated to different plant tissues (leaves, stem, and roots) determines how long C remains in plant biomass and thus remains a central challenge for understanding the global C cycle. We used a diverse set of observations (AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower observations, biomass estimates from tree-ring data, and leaf area index (LAI) measurements) to compare C fluxes, pools, and LAI data with those predicted by a land surface model (LSM), the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). We ran CLM4.5 for nine temperate (including evergreen and deciduous) forests in North America between 1980 and 2013 using four different C allocation schemes: i. dynamic C allocation scheme (named "D-CLM4.5") with one dynamic allometric parameter, which allocates C to the stem and leaves to vary in time as a function of annual net primary production (NPP); ii. an alternative dynamic C allocation scheme (named "D-Litton"), where, similar to (i), C allocation is a dynamic function of annual NPP, but unlike (i) includes two dynamic allometric parameters involving allocation to leaves, stem, and coarse roots; iii.–iv. a fixed C allocation scheme with two variants, one representative of observations in evergreen (named "F-Evergreen") and the other of observations in deciduous forests (named "F-Deciduous"). D-CLM4.5 generally overestimated gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, and underestimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). In D-CLM4.5, initial aboveground biomass in 1980 was largely overestimated (between 10 527 and 12 897 g C m −2 ) for deciduous forests, whereas aboveground biomass accumulation through time (between 1980 and 2011) was highly underestimated (between 1222 and 7557 g C m −2 ) for both evergreen and deciduous sites due to a lower stem turnover rate in the sites than the one used in the model. D-CLM4.5 overestimated LAI in both evergreen and deciduous sites because the leaf C–LAI relationship in the model did not match the observed leaf C–LAI relationship at our sites. Although the four C allocation schemes gave similar results for aggregated C fluxes, they translated to important differences in long-term aboveground biomass accumulation and aboveground NPP. For deciduous forests, D-Litton gave more realistic C stem ∕ C leaf ratios and strongly reduced the overestimation of initial aboveground biomass and aboveground NPP for deciduous forests by D-CLM4.5. We identified key structural and parameterization deficits that need refinement to improve the accuracy of LSMs in the near future. These include changing how C is allocated in fixed and dynamic schemes based on data from current forest syntheses and different parameterization of allocation schemes for different forest types. Our results highlight the utility of using measurements of aboveground biomass to evaluate and constrain the C allocation scheme in LSMs, and suggest that stem turnover is overestimated by CLM4.5 for these AmeriFlux sites. Understanding the controls of turnover will be critical to improving long-term C processes in LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

CEED-MS8:Initial Integration of CEED Software in ECP Applications

Key components of CEED software development involve fast finite element operator storage and evaluation, architecture optimizations, performant algorithms for all orders, global kernels for finite element operators, efficient use of the memory sub-system, optimal data locality and motion, enhanced scalability and parallelism, and fast tensor contractions. As ultimate goals of the project, CEED is exploring and identifying the best algorithms for the full range of discretizations and applying algorithmic and software development to support ECP applications’ needs. In this milestone we report on the initial integration of CEED software in the selected first-wave ECP/CEED apps and the continued exploration of other ECP applications as second-wave (milestone CEED-MS23) and third-wave (milestone CEED-MS35) ECP/CEED application candidates. An extensive evaluation of various approaches for GPU acceleration of the CEED computational motives is also a major focus of the report, both in the settings of CEED’s Nekbone and Laghos miniapps, as well as versions of CEED’s bake-off problems (introduced in milestone CEED-MS6). The first-wave ECP applications targeted for coupling with CEED software include the ExaSMR and MARBL applications. We also report on near-term collaboration with the seed-funded Urban Systems project, as well as engagements with ACME, ExaAM, GEOS and the Application Assessment and Proxy App projects. The ExaSMR project involves coupled thermal-hydraulics/neutronics, with the latter based on Monte Carlo methods and the former based on high-order discretizations of the Navier-Stokes and energy equations for accurate simulation of turbulent transport. The project requires fast and efficient turbulence simulation capabilities that will scale to exascale platforms. Work within CEED will ensure that all aspects of the Nek5000 workflow scale to the target problem space, which involves > 10 10 degrees of freedom in typical production runs. CEED’s goal is to provide implementations that perform with maximum attainable efficiency and deliver low turn-around times. A deliverable for this milestone is beta-release of the GPU-based variant of Nek5000. MARBL is targeting high-energy-density physics problems, including single fluid multi-material hydrodynamics and radiation/magnetic diffusion simulation, with applications in inertial confined fusion, pulsed power experiments, and equation of state/material strength analysis. The code uses high-order methods based arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian, direct Eulerian, and unstructured adaptive mesh refinement. A deliverable for this milestone is collaboration with MARBL for improved performance based on partially-assembled operators. The Urban exascale project is planning to couple real-time data with high performance simulations to study particulate transport in cities. Nek5000 will be used for large eddy and RANS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) simulations of turbulent transport in these domains. Areas where the CEED team is aiding the Urban Canyon group include creating high-order meshes for urban geometries and developing boundary conditions appropriate for simulations close to real-life urban conditions. The software artifacts delivered as part of this milestone include GPU-enabled versions of the Nekbone and Laghos miniapps, which are provided through the CEED website, http://ceed.exascaleproject.org and the CEED GitHub organization, http://github.com/ceed. In addition to details and results from the above R&D efforts, in this document we are also reporting on other project-wide activities performed in Q4 of FY17, including: the CEED first annual meeting and participation of CEED researchers in a variety of outreach activities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation in Tropical Africa

This paper presents a regional climate system model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation over Tropical Africa. The model development involves the initial coupling between the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RCM) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV), and further improvements of the models. Model improvements derive from the new parameterization from CLM4.5 that addresses the well documented overestimation of gross primary production (GPP), a refinement of stress deciduous phenology scheme in CN that addresses a spurious LAI fluctuation for drought-deciduous plants, and the incorporation of a survival rule into the DV model to prevent tropical broadleaf evergreens trees from growing in areas with a prolonged drought season. The impact of the modifications on model results is documented based on numerical experiments using various subcomponents of the model. The performance of the coupled model is then validated against observational data based on three configurations with increasing capacity: RCM-CLM with prescribed leaf area index and fractional coverage of different plant functional types (PFTs); RCM-CLM-CN with prescribed PFTs coverage but prognostic plant phenology; RCM-CLM-CN-DV in which both the plant phenology and PFTs coverage are simulated by the model. Results from these three models are compared against the FLUXNET up-scaled GPP and ET data, LAI and PFT coverages from remote sensing data including MODIS and GIMMS, University of Delaware precipitation and temperature data, and surface radiation data from MVIRI and SRB. Our results indicate that the models perform well in reproducing the physical climate and surface radiative budgets in the domain of interest. However, PFTs coverage is significantly underestimated by the model over arid and semi-arid regions of Tropical Africa, caused by an underestimation of LAI in these regions by the CN model that gets exacerbated through vegetation dynamics in RCM-CLM-CN-DV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Phase II Nevada Water Resources Data, Modeling, and Visualization (DMV) Center (Final Report)

Water is unquestionably a critical resource throughout the United States. In the semi-arid west -- an area stressed by increase in human population and sprawl of the built environment -- water is the most important limiting resource. Crucially, science must understand factors that affect availability and distribution of water. To sustain growing consumptive demand, science needs to translate understanding into reliable and robust predictions of availability under weather conditions that could be average but might be extreme. These predictions are needed to support current and long-term planning. Similar to the role of weather forecast and climate prediction, water prediction over short and long temporal scales can contribute to resource strategy, governmental policy and municipal infrastructure decisions, which are arguably tied to the natural variability and unnatural change to climate. Change in seasonal and annual temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff affect the distribution of water over large temporal and spatial scales, which impact the risk of flooding and the groundwater recharge. Anthropogenic influences and impacts increase the complexity and urgency of the challenge. The goal of this project has been to develop a decision support framework of data acquisition, digital modeling, and 3D visualization. This integrated framework consists of tools for compiling, discovering and projecting our understanding of processes that control the availability and distribution of water. The framework is intended to support the analysis of the complex interactions between processes that affect water supply, from controlled availability to either scarcity or deluge. The developed framework enables DRI to promote excellence in water resource management, particularly within the Lake Tahoe basin. In principle, this framework could be replicated for other watersheds throughout the United States. Phase II of this project builds upon the research conducted during Phase I, in which the hydrologic framework was investigated and the development initiated. Phase II concentrates on practical implementation of the earlier work but emphasizes applications to the hydrology of the Lake Tahoe basin. Phase 1 efforts have been refined and extended by creating a toolset for geographic information systems (GIS) that is usable for disparate types of geospatial and geo-referenced data. The toolset is intended to serve multiple users for a variety of applications. The web portal for internet access to hydrologic and remotely sensed product data, prototyped in Phase I, has been significantly enhanced. The portal provides high performance access to LANDSAT-derived data using techniques developed during the course of the project. The portal is interactive, and supports the geo-referenced display of hydrologic information derived from remotely sensed data, such as various vegetative indices used to calculate water consumption. The platform can serve both internal and external constituencies using inter-operating infrastructure that spans both sides of the DRI firewall. The platform is intended grow its supported data assets and to serve as a template for replication to other geographic areas. An unanticipated development during the project was the use of ArcGIS software on a new computer system, called the IBM PureSytems, and the parallel use of the systems for faster, more efficient image processing. Additional data, independent of the portal, was collected within the Sagehen basin and provides detailed information regarding the processes that control hydrologic responses within mountain watersheds. The newly collected data include elevation, evapotranspiration, energy balance and remotely sensed snow-pack data. A Lake Tahoe basin hydrologic model has been developed, in part to help predict the hydrologic impacts of climate change. The model couples both the surface and subsurface hydrology, with the two components having been independently calibrated. Results from the coupled simulations involving both surface water and groundwater processes show that it is possible to fairly accurately simulate lake effects and water budget variables over a wide range of dry and wet cycles in the historical record. The Lake Tahoe basin is representative of the hydrology, topography and climate throughout the Sierra Nevada Range, and the entire model development is prototypical of the efforts required to replicate the decision support framework to other locales. The Lake Tahoe model in particular, could allow water managers to evaluate more accurately components of the water budget (ET, runoff, groundwater, etc) and to answer important questions regarding water resources in northern Nevada. This report discusses the geographic scale and the hydrologic complexity of the calibrated model developed as part of this project, as well as simulation results for historical and future climate projects To enable human-driven data exploration and discovery, de novo software for a globalized rendering module that extends the capability of our evolving custom visualization engine from Phase I (called SMEngine) has been developed. The new rendering component, called Horizon, supports terrain rendering capable of displaying and interrogating both remotely sensed and modeled data. The development of Horizon necessitated adaptation of the visualization engine to allow extensible integration of components such as the global rendering module and support for associated features. The resulting software is general in its GIS capability, but a specific Lake Tahoe visualization application suitable for immersive decision support in the DRIVE6 virtual reality facility has been developed. During the development, various features to enhance the value of the visualization experience were explored, including the use of hyperspectral image overlays. An over-arching goal of the visualization aspect of the project has been to develop and demonstrate the CAVE (CAVE Automatic Virtual Environment) as a practical tool for hydrologic research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Shrub Expansion, Plant Functional Trait Variation, and Effects on Belowground Carbon Cycling (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing dramatic changes in response to climate warming, and these changes are expected to feedback to the atmosphere, potentially altering the trajectory of future climate change. Feedbacks from Arctic ecosystems are a major concern because the Arctic is projected to warm significantly in the 21 st century and because >50% of global belowground organic carbon is stored in permafrost and overlying soils. Warming-driven release of this carbon could drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerate climate warming. Plant communities are also responding to warming, as evidenced by the widely documented increase in woody-shrub growth and “greening” across much of the Arctic tundra biome. This vegetation shift may offset or amplify warming by altering carbon cycling. The direction and magnitude of shrub effects remain highly uncertain, however, due to limited understanding of the consequences of shrub expansion for belowground carbon cycling and simplification of these relationships in models. The major shrubs expanding in the Arctic (Betula, Salix, and Alnus) vary widely with respect to aboveground and belowground traits (e.g., tissue production and chemistry, rooting depth, microbial symbionts), and may also exhibit substantial intraspecific variation in these traits in response to environmental conditions. Such variation is likely to have profound implications for soil carbon cycling. The overarching goal of this project was to improve process-based understanding of the influence of shrub expansion on carbon cycling to enable improved representation of carbon dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. We investigated how plant functional traits vary among shrub genera, respond to environmental conditions, and affect belowground carbon and nutrient cycling by quantifying relationships among functional traits and biogeochemical cycling along edaphic gradients nested within a climate gradient in the Alaskan tundra. We found consistent differences in leaf and root traits among shrub genera and between shrubs and a widespread sedge species, indicating diverse nutrient acquisition strategies and belowground impacts among different arctic shrubs. We also found striking differences in trait values among individuals within the same species or genera within sites. Soil parameters were more important than climate parameters for predicting size and leaf trait variation, and root trait responses were less dependent on climate overall. For all but one root trait, including parameters representing aboveground traits improved the predictive ability of models. These results demonstrate that tundra shrub traits vary considerably at local scales and soil factors drive this variation, especially belowground. Furthermore, leveraging information about aboveground traits and soil conditions can improve predictions of how belowground traits will respond to climate change. Despite these differences, soil carbon and nitrogen pools in the active layer did not vary among plots dominated by different shrub or sedge genera. Instead, pool sizes generally decreased from warmer to colder sites, consistent with a productivity gradient. Patterns of isotopic N composition indicate that shrubs tighten nitrogen cycling via nitrogen resorption or immobilization of shrub litter. Overall, these results suggest that further identifying the specific shrub genera in the tundra landscape will ultimately provide better predictions of belowground dynamics across the changing arctic. We also performed simulation experiments with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) incorporated in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework, treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We performed simulations across different types of tundra, including shrub tundra. One key finding was that both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter could vary within the same type of tundra, but in a different geographical location, such as over the climate gradient of shrub tundra described above. We organized a special session at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America in August 2019 to disseminate our results, refine recommendations for model improvement, and initiate collaborations to implement these recommendations in existing models of tundra carbon dynamics at ecosystem to Earth system scales. Our results support DOE near-term priorities by providing mechanistic insights into the role of vegetation change in the terrestrial carbon cycle in a region that is inadequately represented in Earth system models. Current models reduce the complexity of Arctic vegetation to a small number of plant functional types (PFTs). This approach implicitly assumes that each PFT represents the average ecological function of its constituent species, thus ignoring the effects of trait variation on biogeochemical cycling and potentially leading to large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of ecosystem feedbacks to climate. By quantifying variation of plant functional traits across broad gradients of climatic and edaphic conditions and elucidating the linkages of such variation with carbon and nutrient cycling, our results illustrate the need and create a foundation for further developing trait-based modeling approaches that allow the traits of PFTs to vary as a function of environmental conditions. These approaches should improve the capacity of simulation models to offer insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics associated with novel plant communities in a rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Economically Viable Intermediate to Long Duration Hydrogen Energy Storage Solutions for Fossil Fueled Assets

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management of U.S. Department of Energy under Funding Opportunity Announcement Number DE-FOA-0002332 “Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation”. The work aimed to explore and advance an innovative hydrogen energy storage system – the synergistically integrated hydrogen energy storage system (SIHES) – that has the following characteristics: • Compatible with existing or new coal and gas fuel electricity generation units, • best suited for intermediate to long duration energy storage, from 12 hours to weeks even months, and • capable of storing energy at the utility scale – hundreds of MWh to GWh energy storage with power output level in tens to hundreds of MW. Preliminary front-end engineering design (Pre-FEED) studies was carried out to develop and refine a site-specific SIHES as peaking power generation units (so named as HyPeaker) as the first market entry point, to demonstrate both the technical feasibility and the economic viability to integrate the HyPeaker “within the fence” of a fossil power plant. This specific site was TVA’s Johnsonville Combustion Turbine Plant. The HyPeaker was designed and engineered to integrate with a 60MW aeroderivative gas turbine unit already available at TVA’s Johnsonville site. This site-specific HyPeaker consists of an alkaline electrolyzer to produce hydrogen from CO 2 free electricity sources, an innovative low-cost high-pressure hydrogen storage system (Big-Ton) and the aero gas turbine to generate electricity using blend of hydrogen and natural gas. A holistic system level technoeconomic analysis tool specific to HyPeaker was developed to optimize the engineering design of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker for cost and performance. The optimal design and specification of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker are the following: • Alkaline electrolyzer: 3MW • Big-Ton storage vessel: 11,000kg H 2 at 3000psi. • 4-stage diaphragm hydrogen compressor: 55kg-H 2 /hr from 150psi to 3000psi. The HyPeaker is designed to provide sufficient hydrogen for 90% continuous operation of the HyPeaker. All major components have design life of 30 years. The capex of HyPeaker is estimated at $\$$7.1M. This included $\$$1.5M for the electrolyzer, $\$$5.6M for the storage vessel and compressor. The cost of aero gas turbine was included as it is already available at the site. Key findings are: • HyPeaker can be designed, manufactured, installed and integrated with the fossil power plants, with sub-systems and components commercially available on the market today, even when it is scaled up to an order of magnitude larger than the one at the Johnsonville site. HyPeaker is a technologically viable solution to cover a wide range of energy storage duration needs, from daily peaking operation to seasonal shifting for fossil fueled assets. • The cost advantage of SCCV based Big-Ton H 2 storage vessel made it possible to “oversize” the H 2 storage subsystem to achieve overall system level cost optimization. The benefits are two-fold. First, it allows to significantly reduce the capacity and cost of electrolyzer by spreading H 2 production over a much longer period of time when the fuel cost for electricity production is low. Second, it allows to balance the hydrogen production and usage shift over weeks to months to meet the peak demands. As such, the capital cost of HyPeaker system using the Big-Ton was less than half of the cost of a system with today’s steel tube based H 2 storage system. The HyPeaker has even better cost advantage Li-ion battery based energy storage system. The estimated capital cost of Li-Ion battery system would be at $\$$38M, under the same projected 20-year electricity generation profile of the Johnsonville site. This is over 5 times more expensive than the HyPeaker system. • Since industry scale energy storage systems do not have 100% energy conversion and storage efficiency, energy storage systems using fossil fuel generated electricity would increase the CO 2 emission. This is particularly the case for HyPeaker due to its low round trip efficiency. Therefore, a more sensible solution would be to the excessive or curtailed electricity from CO 2 emission free sources such as solar farms, wind farms or nuclear power plants, to produce hydrogen, and integrate them with the HyPeaker. Electricity from TVA’s nuclear power plants was used for the Johnsonville HyPeaker. • The economic viability of HyPeaker is expected to be further improved when global supply chains are taken into consideration. For the same Johnsonville site specific HyPeaker, the capex would be reduced to ~$\$$3.6M from ~$\$$7.1M, and the added LCOE is reduced to ~$\$$85/MWh. With the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the cost of domestically produced HyPeaker sub-systems would be at the level of today’s global suppliers. Since the peaking units generally operate at peak usage period, thereby demanding higher price, the projected $\$$85/MWh LCOE would be within the realm of financial viability for utility operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part II: Case Studies

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper that documents the Climate Model version 4X (CM4X) hierarchy of coupled climate models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Part I of this paper is presented in Griffies et al. (2025a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004861 ). Here we present a suite of case studies that examine ocean and sea ice features that are targeted for further research, which include sea level, eastern boundary upwelling, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice, Southern Ocean circulation, and North Atlantic circulation. The case studies are based on experiments that follow the protocol of version 6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis reveals a systematic improvement in the simulation fidelity of CM4X relative to its CM4.0 predecessor, as well as an improvement when refining the ocean/sea ice horizontal grid spacing from the 0.25° of CM4X‐p25 to the 0.125° of CM4X‐p125. Even so, there remain many outstanding biases, thus pointing to the need for further grid refinements, enhancements to numerical methods, and/or advances in parameterizations, each of which target long‐standing model biases and limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗