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At least 883 records · Page 49

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Abstract New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid Programming for Near-Term Quantum Computing Systems

Recent computations involving quantum processing units (QPUs) have demonstrated a series of challenges inherent to hybrid classical-quantum programming, compilation, execution, and verification and validation. Despite considerable progress, system-level noise, limited low-level instructions sets, remote access models, and an overall lack of portability and classical integration presents near-term programming challenges that must be overcome in order to enable reliable scientific quantum computing and support robust hardware benchmarking. In this work, we draw on our experience in programming QPUs to identify common concerns and challenges, and detail best practices for mitigating these challenges within the current hybrid classical-quantum computing paradigm. Following this discussion, we introduce the XACC quantum compilation and execution framework as a hardware and language independent solution that addresses many of these hybrid programming challenges. XACC supports extensible methodologies for managing a variety of programming, compilation, and execution concerns across the increasingly diverse set of QPUs. We use recent nuclear physics simulations to illustrate how the framework mitigates programming, compilation, and execution challenges and manages the complex workflow present in QPU-enhanced scientific applications. Finally, we codify the resulting hybrid scientific computing workflow in order to identify key areas requiring future improvement.

Mccaskey, Alex↗

SU-D-17A-04: The Impact of Audiovisual Biofeedback On Image Quality During 4D Functional and Anatomic Imaging: Results of a Prospective Clinical Trial

Purpose: The ability of audiovisual (AV) biofeedback to improve breathing regularity has not previously been investigated for functional imaging studies. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of AV biofeedback on 4D-PET and 4D-CT image quality in a prospective clinical trial. We hypothesized that motion blurring in 4D-PET images and the number of artifacts in 4D-CT images are reduced using AV biofeedback. Methods: AV biofeedback is a real-time, interactive and personalized system designed to help a patient self-regulate his/her breathing using a patient-specific representative waveform and musical guides. In an IRB-approved prospective clinical trial, 4D-PET and 4D-CT images of 10 lung cancer patients were acquired with AV biofeedback (AV) and free breathing (FB). The 4D-PET images in 6 respiratory bins were analyzed for motion blurring by: (1) decrease of GTVPET and (2) increase of SUVmax in 4-DPET compared to 3D-PET. The 4D-CT images were analyzed for artifacts by: (1) comparing normalized cross correlation-based scores (NCCS); and (2) quantifying a visual assessment score (VAS). A two-tailed paired t-test was used to test the hypotheses. Results: The impact of AV biofeedback on 4D-PET and 4D-CT images varied widely between patients, suggesting inconsistent patient comprehension and capability. Overall, the 4D-PET decrease of GTVPET was 2.0±3.0cm3 with AV and 2.3±3.9cm{sup 3} for FB (p=0.61). The 4D-PET increase of SUVmax was 1.6±1.0 with AV and 1.1±0.8 with FB (p=0.002). The 4D-CT NCCS were 0.65±0.27 with AV and 0.60±0.32 for FB (p=0.32). The 4D-CT VAS was 0.0±2.7 (p=ns). Conclusion: A 10-patient study demonstrated a statistically significant reduction of motion blurring of AV over FB for 1/2 functional 4D-PET imaging metrics. No difference between AV and FB was found for 2 anatomic 4D-CT imaging metrics. Future studies will focus on optimizing the human-computer interface and including patient training sessions for improved comprehension and capability. Supported by NIH/NCI R01 CA 093626, Stanford BioX Interdisciplinary Initiatives Program, NHMRC Australia Fellowship, and Kwanjeong Educational Foundation. GE Healthcare provided the Respiratory Gating Toolbox for 4D-PET image reconstruction. Stanford University owns US patent #E7955270 which is unlicensed to any commercial entity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Insight from Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 Investigations using MELCOR

During the emergency response period of the accidents that took place at Fukushima Daiichi in March of 2011, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) conducted a number of studies using the MELCOR code to help understand what was occurring and what had occurred. During the post-accident period, the Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly sponsored a study of the Fukushima Daiichi accident with collaboration among Oak Ridge, Sandia, and Idaho national laboratories. The purpose of the study was to compile relevant data, reconstruct the accident progression using computer codes, assess the codes predictive capabilities, and identify future data needs. The current paper summarizes some of the early MELCOR simulations and analyses conducted at ORNL of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 accident. Extended analysis and discussion of the Unit 3 accident is also presented taking into account new knowledge and modeling refinements made since the joint DOE/NRC study.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Improving Memory Error Handling Using Linux

As supercomputers continue to get faster and more powerful in the future, they will also have more nodes. If nothing is done, then the amount of memory in supercomputer clusters will soon grow large enough that memory failures will be unmanageable to deal with by manually replacing memory DIMMs. "Improving Memory Error Handling Using Linux" is a process oriented method to solve this problem by using the Linux kernel to disable (offline) faulty memory pages containing bad addresses, preventing them from being used again by a process. The process of offlining memory pages simplifies error handling and results in reducing both hardware and manpower costs required to run Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) clusters. This process will be necessary for the future of supercomputing to allow the development of exascale computers. It will not be feasible without memory error handling to manually replace the number of DIMMs that will fail daily on a machine consisting of 32-128 petabytes of memory. Testing reveals the process of offlining memory pages works and is relatively simple to use. As more and more testing is conducted, the entire process will be automated within the high-performance computing (HPC) monitoring software, Zenoss, at LANL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Power Supplies on a Chip (PSOC)

All electric devices are built to operate with a certain type and amount of electrical energy, but this is often not the same type or amount of electrical energy that comes out of the outlet in your wall. Power converters modify electrical energy from the outlet to a useable current, voltage, and frequency for an electronic device. Power stations also use power converters on a larger scale to modify electrical energy so it can be efficiently transmitted. Today’s power converters are inefficient because they are based on decades-old technologies and rely on expensive, bulky, and failure-prone components. Within the next 20 years, 80% of the electricity used in the U.S. will flow through these devices, so there is a critical need to improve their power density and efficiency. The Center for Power Electronics Systems (CPES) at Virginia Tech is finding ways to save real estate on a computer’s motherboard that could be used for other critical functions. Every computer processor today contains a voltage regulator that automatically maintains a constant level of electricity entering the device. The current voltage regulator solution is embedded in the mother board employing discrete components, thus occupying a significant portion of the valuable motherboard space. In this project CPES successfully developed a voltage regulator that uses semiconductors made of gallium nitride and high-frequency soft magnetic material. These materials are integrated on a small, three-dimensional (3D) chip that can handle same amount power of traditional voltage regulators with 1/10 of its size and with improved efficiency. The proposed power supplies on a chip (PSOC) frees up to 90% of the motherboard space occupied by current voltage regulators. With the ever increasing demand of size/weight reduction and functionality improvement of all forms of portable battery operated electronics equipment and the trend of increasing use of cloud computing, the proposed PSOC will have profound impact in future generations of IT equipment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gross Alpha and Beta Decision Levels for the Environmental Air Monitoring Program for the Idaho National Laboratory

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of alpha and beta radiation data collected from air monitoring sites at or near Idaho National Laboratory from April 2006 through February 2017. These data were used to compute monitoring limits that will be used to assess future alpha and beta radiation measurements. Data were analyzed for seasonality, stationarity, and other data issues that may impact the calculation and use of the monitoring limits.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NEAMS Workbench Status and Capabilities

The mission of the US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is to develop, apply, deploy, and support state-of-the-art predictive modeling and simulation tools for the design and analysis of current and future nuclear energy systems. This is accomplished by using computing architectures that range from laptops to leadership-class facilities. The NEAMS Workbench is a new initiative that will facilitate the transition from conventional tools to high fidelity tools by providing a common user interface for model creation, review, execution, output review, and visualization for integrated codes. The Workbench can use common user input, including engineering-scale specifications that are expanded into application-specific input requirements through the use of customizable templates. The templating process can enable multifidelity analysis of a system from a common set of input data. Additionally, the common user input processor can provide an enhanced alternative application input that provides additional conveniences over the native input, especially for legacy codes. Expansion of the integrated codes and application templates available in the Workbench will broaden the NEAMS user community and will facilitate system analysis and design. Current and planned capabilities of the NEAMS Workbench are detailed here.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NEAMS Workbench Status and Capabilities

The mission of the US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is to develop, apply, deploy, and support state-of-the-art predictive modeling and simulation tools for the design and analysis of current and future nuclear energy systems. This is accomplished by using computing architectures that range from laptops to leadership-class facilities. The NEAMS Workbench is a new initiative that will facilitate the transition from conventional tools to highfidelity tools by providing a common user interface for model creation, review, execution, output review, and visualization for integrated codes. The Workbench can use common user input, including engineering-scale specifications that are expanded into application-specific input requirements through the use of customizable templates. The templating process can enable multifidelity analysis of a system from a common set of input data. Additionally, the common user input processor can provide an enhanced alternative application input that provides additional conveniences compared with native input, especially for legacy codes. Expansion of the integrated codes and application templates available in the Workbench will broaden the NEAMS user community and will facilitate system analysis and design. Current and planned capabilities of the NEAMS Workbench are detailed herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Am-241, Pu-238, Pu-239/240, and Sr-90 Decision Levels for the Environmental Air Monitoring Program for the Idaho National Laboratory

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Am-241, Pu-238, Pu-239/240, and Sr-90 radiation data collected from air monitoring sites at or near Idaho National Laboratory from June 2013 through December 2020. These data were used to compute monitoring limits that will be used to assess future measurements of Am-241, Pu-238, Pu-239/240, and Sr-90. Data were analyzed for seasonality, stationarity, and other data issues that may impact the calculation and use of the monitoring limits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange Hybrid Model for Radionuclide Sorption to Clay Minerals (M4SF-23LL010301062)

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-23LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number SF-23LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program. In our FY22 effort, we described a detailed analysis of U(VI) sorption to quartz through both traditional surface complexation modeling and through a hybrid ML framework. In FY23, effort was placed on publication of these results and expansion of the LLNL surface complexation and ion exchange database (L-SCIE) in order to assess mineral-based radionuclide retardation under a wider variety of geochemical conditions (e.g., ionic strength, varying electrolyte compositions). Efforts were initiated to expand L-SCIE to include radionuclide surface complexation and ion exchange to clays that are relevant to subsurface geochemical processes occurring at nuclear waste repositories. In particular, a large source of sorption data for clays resides at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) (work primarily by Bradbury and Baeyens) and we initiated discussions on how to retrieve those data and apply FAIR principles to those datasets. In addition to L-SCIE development, two hybrid models that incorporate AI/ML were investigated and compared to discern the most promising approaches for accurate and precise estimations of radionuclide retardation. Key considerations for future model development include (1) the ability to reduce computational burden on determining retardation coefficients for PA and (2) the ability to quantify and predict radionuclide-mineral partitioning at a more efficient, rapid pace due to automated workflows. Upon the careful consideration of the most effective modeling approaches, we are identifying ways to implement these approaches into PA. Ultimately, the data science-based workflows will provide a major incentive for other institutions to adopt a FAIR-formatted, interoperable database. LLNL will play a key role in disseminating sorption data and acting as good data stewards by updating the database in a consistent format and assessing the quality of the newly assimilated data in an organized fashion. To this end, all data and workflows are open access and made available on the LLNL Seaborg research website (https://seaborg.llnl.gov/resources/geochemical-databases-modeling-codes).

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Test and Validate Distributed Coaxial Cable Sensors for in situ Condition Monitoring of Coal-Fired Boiler Tubes

This project aims to test, validate, and advance the technology readiness level (from TRL5 to TRL7) of a novel low-cost distributed stainless-steel/ceramic coaxial cable sensing (SSC-CCS) technology for in situ monitoring of the boiler tube temperature in existing coal-fired power plants. The novel SSC-CCS sensing technology and associated condition-based monitoring (CBM) software to be demonstrated in this project will lead to an improved understanding of the boiler tube failure mechanisms and a prognostic system to improve the overall performance, reliability, and flexibility of the nation’s coal-fired power plant fleet. A boiler tube monitoring system with distributed coaxial cable temperature sensors and a sensor acquisition system was constructed. The high-temperature coaxial cable sensor with a length of 1.3m was made by using a quartz tube (1mm inner diameter (ID) and 6mm outer diameter (OD)) to concentrically separate a 304 stainless-steel (SS) rod (1mm OD) and SS tube (7.94mm OD and 6.16mm ID). The sensor acquisition system includes a vector network analyzer (VNA), a radio frequency (RF) power amplifier, multiple switches and a USB hub. The distributed stainless-steel quartz coaxial cable sensor (SSQ-CCS) had a linear response to temperature with a resolution uncertainty of σ = 0.77℃. To withstand the harsh conditions of 3,300 steam pressures and 800℃ high temperatures, the sensor was shielded by a protective tube made of the same material as the boiler tube. The protection tube had an OD of 1.5 inches and a thickness of 0.25 inches. In the laboratory tests, the sensor showed good sensitivity and fast response. The drift was bounded between +0.33% and -0.67% during a test at 600℃ for 350 hours, indicating good stability of the sensor. A field test was conducted where four sensors were welded on four superheat tubes (SH-Ts) at a coal-fired power station over 400 days. Conventional thermocouples were welded to the superheater tubes alongside the coaxial cable sensors for the purpose of comparison. Two sensors were capable of distributed sensing, with three multiplexed sensing sections. The other two sensors were single section. During the 400-day test period, the power plant experienced startups and shutdowns. At the steady state operations, the temperature of the boiler tube is about 600℃ (1112°F). The sensors recorded the entire coal-firing processes (start-up, steady state, and shut-down) and the glitch event. A GSM modem and a Watchdog were added to the system to ensure reliable data recording. The GSM modem sent daily messages to plant managers and Clemson team to inform the status of the sensor system. If the system was not normally working, the Watchdog would reboot the system automatically. The new coaxial cable based distributed sensing technology has been proven to be successful in both laboratory and field tests. A comprehensive four-stage multi-physics computational framework has been developed to assist the design, optimization, installation, and operation of SSQ-CCS. With the consideration of various operation conditions, we predict the distributions of flue gas temperatures within coal-fired boilers, the temperature correlation between the boiler tube and SSQ-CCS, and the safety of SSQ-CCS. A conditional-based monitoring system is implemented as well. The computational framework developed in this work can guide the future operation of coal-fired plants and other power plants for the safety prediction of boiler operations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

ARM - Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds

Convective processes play a critical role in the Earth's energy balance through the redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and their link to the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of convective processes in numerical models is vital towards improving current and future simulations of Earths climate system. Despite improvements in computing power, current operational weather and global climate models are unable to resolve the natural temporal and spatial scales important to convective processes and therefore must turn to parameterization schemes to represent these processes. In turn, parameterization schemes in cloud-resolving models need to be evaluated for their generality and application to a variety of atmospheric conditions. Data from field campaigns with appropriate forcing descriptors have been traditionally used by modelers for evaluating and improving parameterization schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AVESTAR Center for clean energy plant operators of the future

Clean energy plants in the modern grid era will increasingly exploit carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), fuel/product flexibility, and load following. Integrated power/process plants will require next generation of well-trained engineering and operations professionals. High-fidelity dynamic simulators are well suited for training, education, and R&D on clean energy plant operations. Combining Operator Training System (OTS) with 3D virtual Immersive Training System (ITS) enables simultaneous training of control room and plant field operators of the future. Strong collaboration between industry, academia, and government is required to address advanced R&D challenges. AVESTAR Center brings together simulation technology and world-class expertise focused on accelerating development of clean energy plants and operators of the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

2012 Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial - Proposal to DOE

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully-coupled, global climate model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. This document provides the agenda and list of participants for the conference. Web materials for all lectures and practical sessions available from: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/tutorials/073012/ .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗