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At least 883 records · Page 49

Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES

Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ergodic Lagrangian dynamics in a superhero universe

We present a fictional scenario that, while undeniably whimsical, provides the foundation for a unique exercise in extended problem solving, physics analysis, and quantitative model development. Starting with the foundational premise of the Wild Cards shared-world superhero universe, we demonstrate how a variety of concepts appropriate to the advanced undergraduate level—ergodicity, functional analysis, Lagrangian mechanics, and the ever-important simplifying approximation—can be combined into a rich, coherent mathematical model. The goal of this case study is to develop a useful pedagogical exercise in exploring an open-ended research question that presents, at first glance, no clear path forward. Being both eclectic and lengthy, this exercise offers a unique way for students to apply their core physics and mathematics education. It is perhaps best used within a senior honors seminar or within a brief (e.g., January term) elective class.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sex Determination and Ovarian Development in Reptiles and Amphibians: From Genetic Pathways to Environmental Influences

Background: Reptiles and amphibians provide untapped potential for discovering how a diversity of genetic pathways and environmental conditions are incorporated into developmental processes that can lead to similar functional outcomes. These groups display a multitude of reproductive strategies, and whereas many attributes are conserved within groups and even across vertebrates, several aspects of sexual development show considerable variation. Summary: Here, in this review, we focus our attention on the development of the reptilian and amphibian ovary. First, we review and describe the events leading to ovarian development, including sex determination and ovarian maturation, through a comparative lens. We then describe how these events are influenced by environmental factors, focusing on temperature and exposure to anthropogenic chemicals. Lastly, we identify critical knowledge gaps and future research directions that will be crucial to moving forward in our understanding of ovarian development and the influences of the environment in reptiles and amphibians. Key Messages: Reptiles and amphibians provide excellent models for understanding the diversity of sex determination strategies and reproductive development. However, a greater understanding of the basic biology of these systems is necessary for deciphering the adaptive and potentially disruptive implications of embryo-by-environment interactions in a rapidly changing world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Error analysis of low-fidelity models for wake steering based on field measurements

The observations collected by two scanning lidars deployed on the roof of a 2.8-MW turbine undergoing a series of imposed yaw offsets are analyzed. The wake lateral displacement detected by the rear-facing lidar correlates well with the yaw offset sensed by the forward-facing lidar. We find that the high-frequency part of the yaw offset signal is connected to wake meandering, whereas the low frequency component is a good predictor for wake displacement due to yaw misalignment. Conditionally averaged wake velocity data for different yaw offsets are used as benchmarks for the validation of a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes and an empirical wake model. A mean error as low as 2% and a good prediction of the wake trajectory are achieved, provided that the wake recovery rate matches the observations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Discovering neutrino tridents at the Large Hadron Collider

Neutrino trident production of dilepton pairs is well recognized as a sensitive probe of both electroweak physics and physics beyond the Standard Model. Although a rare process, it could be significantly boosted by such new physics, and it also allows the electroweak theory to be tested in a new regime. We demonstrate that the forward neutrino physics program at the Large Hadron Collider offers a promising opportunity to measure for the first time, dimuon neutrino tridents with a statistical significance exceeding 5 σ , improving on the previous claims at the ∼ 3 σ level by the CHARM-II and CCFR collaborations while accounting for additional backgrounds later identified by the NuTeV collaboration. We present predictions for various proposed experiments and outline a specific experimental strategy to identify the signal and mitigate backgrounds, based on “reverse tracking” dimuon pairs in the FASER ν 2 detector. We also discuss prospects for constraining beyond Standard Model contributions to neutrino trident rates at high energies. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mind-the-gap - Part III: Doppler velocity measurements from space

Convective motions and hydrometeors microphysical properties are highly sought-after parameters for evaluating atmospheric numerical models. With most of the Earth's surface covered by water, space-borne Doppler radars are ideal for acquiring such measurements at a global scale. While these systems have proven to be useful tools for retrieving cloud microphysical and dynamical properties from the ground, their adequacy, and specific requirements for spaceborne operation still need to be evaluated. Comprehensive forward simulations enable us to assess the advantages and drawbacks of six different Doppler radar architectures currently planned or under consideration by space agencies for the study of cloud dynamics. Radar performance is examined against state-of-the-art numerical model simulations of well-characterized shallow and deep, continental, and oceanic convective cases. Mean Doppler velocity (MDV) measurements collected at multiple frequencies (13, 35 and 94 GHz) provide complementary information in deep convective cloud systems. The high penetration capability of the 13-GHz radar enables to obtain a complete, albeit horizontally under-sampled, view of deep convective storms. The smaller instantaneous field of view (IFOV) of the 35-GHz radar captures more precise information about the location and size of convective updrafts above 5-8 km height of most systems which was determined is the portion of storms where the mass flux peak is typically located. Finally, the lower mean Doppler velocity uncertainty of displaced phase center antenna (DPCA) radars makes them an ideal system for studying microphysics in shallow convection and frontal systems, as well as ice and mixed-phase clouds. It is demonstrated that a 94-GHz DCPA system can achieve retrieval errors as low as 0.05-0.15 mm for raindrop volume-weighted mean diameter and 25% for rime fraction (for a -10 dBZ echo).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Review of Tools for Modeling Core Radial Expansion in Liquid Metal-Cooled Fast Reactors

Core radial expansion in liquid-metal cooled fast reactor systems is a well-known phenomenon that produces strong reactivity feedback effects. It is crucial from a safety standpoint to design a reactor with the proper core restraint system to guide expansion of the fuel assemblies into a formation that produces negative reactivity feedback in accident conditions. However, the modeling of core radial expansion and its associated reactivity feedback is extremely challenging. Liquid metal-cooled fast reactor designers (both industry and commercial) have pointed to improved modeling of core radial expansion as a key modeling challenge for these types of reactors. The Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (DOE-NEAMS) program has an important role to play in helping to develop a robust, predictive tool for this phenomenon. A literature review has been performed to identify current simulation capabilities applicable to the prediction of core radial expansion in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors and the resultant reactivity feedback effects. An overview as well as a detailed description of the multi-physics phenomena underlying core radial expansion is given in the first two chapters. The objective of this report is to identify existing software that has been or could be applied to the core radial expansion problem, and then to identify possible paths to develop a robust, coupled Multiphysics tool for advanced analysis, in which all three physics (radiation transport, structural mechanics, thermal fluids) are taken into account considering feedback effects from each physics to the other. Several computer codes and workflows have been developed in the United States and abroad to perform individual aspects of radial expansion calculations or to perform loosely coupled analysis. No code system currently exists which tightly and robustly couples the neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and thermal mechanical physics with enough detail to fully resolve the complex core radial expansion reactivity feedback effects. The future availability of such a code system is of vital importance to fully understanding the reactivity feedback effects that occur due to radial expansion, and consequently to optimizing the design of the core restraint system. A potential code development path forward using MOOSE-based tools is suggested in order to leverage the natural tight coupling and robustness of MOOSE-based applications. Additionally, potential gaps for modeling and common assumptions are listed which require further investigation to ensure accuracy for prediction of deformations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Measurements of J/ ψ Production vs. Event Multiplicity in Forward Rapidity in p + p Collisions in the PHENIX Experiment

J / Ψ, a charmonium bound state made of a charm and an anti-charm quark, was discovered in the 1970s and confirmed the quark model. Because the mass of charm quarks is significantly above the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) scale Λ QCD , charmonia are considered excellent probes to test perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculations. In recent decades, they have been studied extensively at different high-energy colliders. However, their production mechanisms, which involve multiple scales, are still not very well understood. Recently, in high-multiplicity p + p collisions at RHIC and at the LHC, a significant enhancement of J / Ψ production yield has been observed, which suggests a strong contribution of multi-parton interaction (MPI). This is different from the traditional pQCD picture, where charm quark pairs are produced from a single hard scattering between partons in p + p collisions. In this work, we will report the J / Ψ normalized production yield as a function of normalized charged particle multiplicity over a board range of rapidity and event multiplicity in the J / Ψ → μ + μ – channel with PHENIX Run 15 p + p data at $\sqrt s$ =200 GeV. The results are compared with PYTHIA 8 simulations with the MPI option turned on and off. Finally, the outlooks of J / Ψ in p + Au and Au + p collisions, along with color glass condensate (CGC) predictions and the multiplicity-dependent Ψ(2S) /J / Ψ ratio in p + p data, will be briefly discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets↗

Chemical bond effects in classical site density functional theory of inhomogeneous molecular liquids

Intra-molecular interactions or chemical bonds represent one of the main distinguishing characteristic of molecular fluids. Development of accurate and practical methods to treat these effects is one of the long standing problems in classical site density functional theory (SDFT). One particular instance when these issues become particularly severe is the case of classical interactions potentials with auxiliary sites or dummy atoms. In this situation current SDFT implementations, such as three-dimensional reference interaction site model (3D-RISM), lead to nonphysical results. We re-examine this issue in this work using our recent reformulation of SDFT. We put forward a simple practical solution to this problem, and illustrate its utility for the case of spherical solutes in diatomic liquids.

Chuev, Gennady N.↗

Simultaneous extraction of the weak radius and the weak mixing angle from parity-violating electron scattering on 12 C

We study the impact of nuclear structure uncertainties on a measurement of the weak charge of 12 C at the future Mainz Energy Recovering Superconducting Accelerator (MESA) facility in Mainz. Information from a large variety of nuclear models, accurately calibrated to the ground-state properties of selected nuclei, suggest that a 0.3% precision measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry at forward angles will not be compromised by nuclear structure effects, thereby allowing a world-leading determination of the weak charge of 12 C . Furthermore, we show that a combination of measurements of the parity-violating asymmetry at forward and backward angles for the same electron-beam energy can be used to extract information on the nuclear weak charge distribution. We conclude that a 0.34% precision on the weak radius of 12 C may be achieved by performing a 3% precision measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry at backward angles.

Electroweak interaction↗

Angular analysis of the low K + K – invariant mass enhancement in B + →K + K – π + decays

We study the decay B + →K + K – π + and investigate the angular distribution of K + K – pairs with invariant mass below 1.1 GeV / c 2 . This region exhibits both a strong enhancement in signal and very large direct CP violation. We construct a coherent sum model for the angular distribution of the S- and P-wave, and report the ratio of their amplitudes, the relative phase and the forward-backward asymmetry. We also report absolute differential branching fractions and direct CP asymmetry for the decay in bins of M K+K– and the differential branching fractions in bins of M K+π– . The results are based on a data sample that contains 772 × 10 6 $B\bar{B}$ pairs collected at the $Υ$(4S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + e – collider. The result favors the presence of S- and D-waves in low M K+K– region to the detriment of a P-wave.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Announcing the Biomedical Data Translator: Initial Public Release

ABSTRACT The growing availability of biomedical data offers vast potential to improve human health, but the complexity and lack of integration of these datasets often limit their utility. To address this, the Biomedical Data Translator Consortium has developed an open‐source knowledge graph–based system—Translator—designed to integrate, harmonize, and make inferences over diverse biomedical data sources. We announce here Translator's initial public release and provide an overview of its architecture, standards, user interface, and core features. Translator employs a scalable, federated, knowledge graph framework for the integration of clinical, genomic, pharmacological, and other biomedical knowledge sources, enabling query retrieval, inference, and hypothesis generation. Translator's user interface is designed to support the exploration of knowledge relationships and the generation of insights, without requiring deep technical expertise and gradually revealing more detailed evidence, provenance, and confidence information, as needed by a given user. To demonstrate Translator's application and impact, we highlight features of the user interface in the context of three real‐world use cases: suggesting potential therapeutics for patients with rare disease; explaining the mechanism of action of a pipeline drug; and screening and validating drug candidates in a model organism. We discuss strengths and limitations of reasoning within a largely federated system and the need for rich concept modeling and deep provenance tracking. Finally, we outline future directions for enhancing Translator's functionality and expanding its data sources. Translator represents a significant step forward in making complex biomedical knowledge more accessible and actionable, aiming to accelerate translational research and improve patient care.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures

THIS PAPER WAS PRIMARILY COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE AUTHOR JOINING PNNL AND NO DOE FUNDING WAS USED FOR THIS PAPER. In this work, we review how equity and justice issues in global climate mitigation scenarios are addressed within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and propose a new research agenda to strengthen their integration in model development and application. We begin by examining prominent concerns at the science-policy interface. We introduce a typology of equity and justice limitations in climate mitigation scenarios, distinguishing among structural, methodological, and epistemological biases that shape what integrated assessment models can reveal at policy-relevant scales. Reflecting on these concerns, we propose a research agenda that describes new avenues of work and draws together distinct emerging initiatives. This agenda is based on the feasibility and depth of required interventions, from incremental improvements to structural reforms and alternative participatory approaches. Drawing on reflexive insights from integrated assessment practitioners, it addresses the operational challenges of translating justice concepts into metrics, including risks of reductionism, tokenism, and narrow definitions. Underlying this research agenda is a recognition that modeling communities must engage more critically with implicit assumptions in model design and use that have equity and justice implications. Achieving equitable climate futures will require transformative actions that integrate diverse justice concerns, advance sustainable development goals, and confront systemic inequities across both human and ecological dimensions. Although models will never capture all these aspects, they can be significantly enhanced to support more informed discussion and practical application. Our contribution proposes a way forward to achieving this goal.

Pachauri, Shonali↗

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Renewable-Storage Hybrids in a Decarbonized Electricity Supply

We explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (2021). Through comparison of Solar Futures Study scenarios with and without PV-battery hybrid configurations enabled (in the same grid planning model), we find that the highest net-value hybrid configuration depends strongly on power sector carbon policy, which increases the value of more forward-looking designs. While the availability of PV-battery hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV and battery capacity, we find that it (a) increases solar's share of total capacity and generation and (b) reduces required transmission expansion and associated costs under scenarios that combine aggressive cost reductions and power sector decarbonization policy. Results will also be presented for the complementarity and economic value of wind-PV hybrids with varying amounts of energy storage.

complementarity↗

Evaluation of PBR Spent Fuel Criticality and Dose Rate Compliance for Storage and Transportation

Spent tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)–based fuels have a strong track record in storage and transportation without documented incidents. This work seeks to reduce uncertainty to aid in more informed spent fuel management of TRISO-based fuels by modeling both fresh and spent pebble bed reactor (PBR) fuel and comparing the results to the regulatory standards from 10 CFR 71. SCALE was used for all modeling due to it having fast and accurate methods for handling PBR fuel modeling, as well as having an efficient method for shielding calculations in monaco with automated variance reduction using importance calculations (MAVRIC), which utilizes the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and the forward-weighted consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (FW-CADIS) methods. KENO-VI was used for all criticality calculations, TSUNAMI was used for uncertainty quantification on k-effective, TRITON and the Oak Ridge isotope generation code (ORIGEN) were both used for depletion of the fuel, and MAVRIC was used for shielding calculations. For criticality assessments, this study focused on the requirement that the value of the neutron multiplication factor, k-effective (k-eff), would not exceed a peak value of 0.95, including uncertainty, with 95% confidence. Criticality was initially examined by modeling fresh fuel from three different designs—HTR-10 fuel, PBMR-400 fuel, and demonstration fuel representative of a TRISO-fueled modern high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) design, henceforth referred to as Demo HTGR—and placing them into various sized containers with conditions described in 10 CFR 71 to quantify the peak k-eff state. When the peak value of 0.95 k-eff was exceeded, mitigation methods were examined in those scenarios. Burnup credit, pebble displacement in areas of strong neutron multiplication, and random pebble replacement using pebbles of various compositions and replacement fractions were examined. In summary, the criticality of PBR fuels can be well accounted for by restricting container size, taking credit for burnup, or by displacing/replacing pebbles. Uncertainty of the k-eff due to nuclear data uncertainties was recorded at ~0.6644%Δk/k, or roughly 664% mil (pcm). The nuclear data–induced uncertainty was relatively small and should not require significant modification in the design to be accounted for. Revisions to the evaluated nuclear data file values have been shown to have a larger impact than nuclear data–induced uncertainty. For dose rate aspects, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations require a maximum dose rate of 10 millirem per hour (mrem/h) at 2 meters. In examining the dose rate behavior of spent PBR fuel, the representative Demo HTGR fuel was modeled exclusively due to it possessing the highest target burnup of the examined fuels. Equilibrium cycle modeling methods were used to produce a higher-fidelity discharge isotopic composition than simple assumptions, such as reflected pebbles. The discharge composition was used as a source term in the fixed-source transport shielding calculations, and dose rates were calculated at 2 m for the shortest possible cooling time. The low concentration of fuel material led to dose rates that were in line with regulatory limits, despite the high burnup when compared to traditional light water reactor fuels. In conclusion, the methods employed in this study would require more work to further verify and validate and are limited to the criticality and dose rate analyses performed.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗