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At least 883 records · Page 49

Direct Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning CO Emissions Using TES and MOPITT Versus Bottom-up GFED Inventory

In this study, we utilize near-simultaneous observations from two sets of multiple satellite sensors to segregate Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO observations over active fire sources from those made over clear background. Hence, we obtain direct estimates of biomass burning CO emissions without invoking inverse modeling as in traditional top-down methods. We find considerable differences between Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3.1 and satellite-based emission estimates in many regions. Both inventories appear to greatly underestimate South and Southeast Asia emissions, for example. On global scales, however, CO emissions in both inventories and in the MOPITT-based analysis agree reasonably well, with the largest bias (30%) found in the Northern Hemisphere spring. In the Southern Hemisphere, there is a one-month shift between the GFED and MOPITT-based fire emissions peak. Afternoon tropical fire emissions retrieved from TES are about two times higher than the morning MOPITT retrievals. This appears to be both a real difference due to the diurnal fire activity variations, and a bias due to the scarcity of TES data.

bias↗

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using a data base management system for modelling SSME test history data

The usefulness of a data base management system (DBMS) for modelling historical test data for the complete series of static test firings for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) was assessed. From an analysis of user data base query requirements, it became clear that a relational DMBS which included a relationally complete query language would permit a model satisfying the query requirements. Representative models and sample queries are discussed. A list of environment-particular evaluation criteria for the desired DBMS was constructed; these criteria include requirements in the areas of user-interface complexity, program independence, flexibility, modifiability, and output capability. The evaluation process included the construction of several prototype data bases for user assessement. The systems studied, representing the three major DBMS conceptual models, were: MIRADS, a hierarchical system; DMS-1100, a CODASYL-based network system; ORACLE, a relational system; and DATATRIEVE, a relational-type system.

Abernethy, K.↗

Catch bond kinetics are instrumental to cohesion of fire ant rafts under load

Dynamic networks composed of constituents that break and reform bonds reversibly are ubiquitous in nature owing to their modular architectures that enable functions like energy dissipation, self-healing, and even activity. While bond breaking depends only on the current configuration of attachment in these networks, reattachment depends also on the proximity of constituents. Therefore, dynamic networks composed of macroscale constituents (not benefited by the secondary interactions cohering analogous networks composed of molecular-scale constituents) must rely on primary bonds for cohesion and self-repair. Toward understanding how such macroscale networks might adaptively achieve this, we explore the uniaxial tensile response of 2D rafts composed of interlinked fire ants ( S. invicta ). Through experiments and discrete numerical modeling, we find that ant rafts adaptively stabilize their bonded ant-to-ant interactions in response to tensile strains, indicating catch bond dynamics. Consequently, low-strain rates that should theoretically induce creep mechanics of these rafts instead induce elastic-like response. Our results suggest that this force-stabilization delays dissolution of the rafts and improves toughness. Nevertheless, above 35 % strain low cohesion and stress localization cause nucleation and growth of voids whose coalescence patterns result from force-stabilization. These voids mitigate structural repair until initial raft densities are restored and ants can reconnect across defects. However mechanical recovery of ant rafts during cyclic loading suggests that—even upon reinstatement of initial densities—ants exhibit slower repair kinetics if they were recently loaded at faster strain rates. These results exemplify fire ants’ status as active agents capable of memory-driven, stimuli-response for potential inspiration of adaptive structural materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Kimball, John↗

Verification of a Finite Element Model for Pyrolyzing Ablative Materials

Ablating thermal protection system (TPS) materials have been used in many reentering spacecraft and in other applications such as rocket nozzle linings, fire protection materials, and as countermeasures for directed energy weapons. The introduction of the finite element model to the analysis of ablation has arguably resulted in improved computational capabilities due the flexibility and extended applicability of the method, especially to complex geometries. Commercial finite element codes often provide enhanced capability compared to custom, specially written programs based on versatility, usability, pre- and post-processing, grid generation, total life-cycle costs, and speed.

ablating materials↗

Long-term measurements of submicrometer aerosol chemistry at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) using an Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM)

In this study the long-term trends of non-refractory submicrometer aerosol (NR-PM1) composition and mass concentration measured by an Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are discussed. NR-PM1 data was recorded at ~30 min intervals over a period of 19 months between November 2010 and June 2012. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) was performed on the measured organic mass spectral matrix using a rolling window technique to derive factors associated with distinct sources, evolution processes, and physiochemical properties. The rolling window approach also allows us to capture the dynamic variations of the chemical properties in the organic aerosol (OA) factors over time. Three OA factors were obtained including two oxygenated OA (OOA) factors, differing in degrees of oxidation, and a biomass burning OA (BBOA) factor. Back trajectory analyses were performed to investigate possible sources of major NR-PM1 species at the SGP site. Organics dominated NR-PM1 mass concentration for the majority of the study with the exception of winter, when ammonium nitrate increases due to transport of precursor species from surrounding urban and agricultural areas and also due to cooler temperatures. Sulfate mass concentrations have little seasonal variation with mixed regional and local sources. In the spring BBOA emissions increase and are mainly associated with local fires. Isoprene and carbon monoxide emission rates were obtained by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the 2011 U.S. National Emissions Inventory to represent the spatial distribution of biogenic and anthropogenic sources, respectively. The combined spatial distribution of isoprene emissions and air mass trajectories suggest that biogenic emissions from the southeast contribute to SOA formation at the SGP site during the summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗

Evaluation of the Contribution of the Building Sector to PM2.5 Emissions in China

In this study, we quantify the current and potential contribution of China’s building sector to direct primary and indirect PM2.5 emissions and co-benefits of key pollution reduction strategies of energy efficiency, fuel switching and pollution control technologies on PM2.5 emissions reduction. We use a bottom-up end-use accounting model to model residential and commercial buildings’ coal demand for heating and electricity demand in China’s Northern and Transition climate zones from 2010 to 2030. The model is then used to characterize the current coal-based heating (e.g., district heating, combined heat and power generation, small-scale coal-fired boilers) and power generation technologies to estimate direct and indirect PM2.5 emissions. Model scenarios are developed to evaluate and compare the potential co-benefits of efficiency improvements, fuel switching and pollution control technologies in reducing building-related direct and indirect PM2.5 emissions. An alternative pathway of development in which district heating is introduced to China’s Transition zone to meet growing demand for heat is also modeled to evaluate and quantify the potential impact on PM2.5 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prevention of Over-Pressurization During Combustion in a Sealed Chamber

The combustion of flammable material in a sealed chamber invariably leads to an initial pressure rise in the volume. The pressure rise is due to the increase in the total number of gaseous moles (condensed fuel plus chamber oxygen combining to form gaseous carbon dioxide and water vapor) and, most importantly, the temperature rise of the gas in the chamber. Though the rise in temperature and pressure would reduce with time after flame extinguishment due to the absorption of heat by the walls and contents of the sealed spacecraft, the initial pressure rise from a fire, if large enough, could lead to a vehicle over-pressure and the release of gas through the pressure relief valve. This paper presents a simple lumped-parameter model of the pressure rise in a sealed chamber resulting from the heat release during combustion. The transient model considers the increase in gaseous moles due to combustion, and heat transfer to the chamber walls by convection and radiation and to the fuel-sample holder by conduction, as a function of the burning rate of the material. The results of the model are compared to the pressure rise in an experimental chamber during flame spread tests as well as to the pressure falloff after flame extinguishment. The experiments involve flame spread over thin solid fuel samples. Estimates of the heat release rate profiles for input to the model come from the assumed stoichiometric burning of the fuel along with the observed flame spread behavior. The sensitivity of the model to predict maximum chamber pressure is determined with respect to the uncertainties in input parameters. Model predictions are also presented for the pressure profile anticipated in the Fire Safety-1 experiment, a material flammability and fire safety experiment proposed for the European Space Agency (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV). Computations are done for a range of scenarios including various initial pressures and sample sizes. Based on these results, various mitigation approaches are suggested to prevent vehicle over-pressurization and help guide the definition of the space experiment.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

Validation of a Solid Rocket Motor Internal Environment Model

In a prior effort, a thermal/fluid model of the interior of Penn State University's laboratory-scale Insulation Test Motor (ITM) was constructed to predict both the convective and radiative heat transfer to the interior walls of the ITM with a minimum of empiricism. These predictions were then compared to values of total and radiative heat flux measured in a previous series of ITM test firings to assess the capabilities and shortcomings of the chosen modeling approach. Though the calculated fluxes reasonably agreed with those measured during testing, this exercise revealed means of improving the fidelity of the model to, in the case of the thermal radiation, enable direct comparison of the measured and calculated fluxes and, for the total heat flux, compute a value indicative of the average measured condition. By replacing the P1-Approximation with the discrete ordinates (DO) model for the solution of the gray radiative transfer equation, the radiation intensity field in the optically thin region near the radiometer is accurately estimated, allowing the thermal radiation flux to be calculated on the heat-flux sensor itself, which was then compared directly to the measured values. Though the fully coupling the wall thermal response with the flow model was not attempted due to the excessive computational time required, a separate wall thermal response model was used to better estimate the average temperature of the graphite surfaces upstream of the heat flux gauges and improve the accuracy of both the total and radiative heat flux computations. The success of this modeling approach increases confidence in the ability of state-of-the-art thermal and fluid modeling to accurately predict SRM internal environments, offers corrections to older methods, and supplies a tool for further studies of the dynamics of SRM interiors.

Martin, Heath T.↗

Validation of a Solid Rocket Motor Internal Environment Model

In a prior effort, a thermal/fluid model of the interior of Penn State University's laboratory-scale Insulation Test Motor (ITM) was constructed to predict both the convective and radiative heat transfer to the interior walls of the ITM with a minimum of empiricism. These predictions were then compared to values of total and radiative heat flux measured in a previous series of ITM test firings to assess the capabilities and shortcomings of the chosen modeling approach. Though the calculated fluxes reasonably agreed with those measured during testing, this exercise revealed means of improving the fidelity of the model to, in the case of the thermal radiation, enable direct comparison of the measured and calculated fluxes and, for the total heat flux, compute a value indicative of the average measured condition. By replacing the P1-Approximation with the discrete ordinates (DO) model for the solution of the gray radiative transfer equation, the radiation intensity field in the optically thin region near the radiometer is accurately estimated, allowing the thermal radiation flux to be calculated on the heat-flux sensor itself, which was then compared directly to the measured values. Though the fully coupling the wall thermal response with the flow model was not attempted due to the excessive computational time required, a separate wall thermal response model was used to better estimate the average temperature of the graphite surfaces upstream of the heat flux gauges and improve the accuracy of both the total and radiative heat flux computations. The success of this modeling approach increases confidence in the ability of state-of-the-art thermal and fluid modeling to accurately predict SRM internal environments, offers corrections to older methods, and supplies a tool for further studies of the dynamics of SRM interiors.

Martin, Heath T.↗

Engine Data Interpretation System (EDIS)

A prototype of an expert system was developed which applies qualitative or model-based reasoning to the task of post-test analysis and diagnosis of data resulting from a rocket engine firing. A combined component-based and process theory approach is adopted as the basis for system modeling. Such an approach provides a framework for explaining both normal and deviant system behavior in terms of individual component functionality. The diagnosis function is applied to digitized sensor time-histories generated during engine firings. The generic system is applicable to any liquid rocket engine but was adapted specifically in this work to the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The system is applied to idealized data resulting from turbomachinery malfunction in the SSME.

Cost, Thomas L.↗

Performance and Stability Analyses of Rocket Thrust Chambers with Oxygen/Methane Propellants

Liquid rocket engines using oxygen and methane propellants are being considered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for future in-space vehicles. This propellant combination has not been previously used in flight-qualified engine systems developed by NASA, so limited test data and analysis results are available at this stage of early development. As part of activities for the Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project funded under the Exploration Technology Development Program, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been evaluating capability to model combustion performance and stability for oxygen and methane propellants. This activity has been proceeding for about two years and this paper is a summary of results to date. Hot-fire test results of oxygen/methane propellant rocket engine combustion devices for the modeling investigations have come from several sources, including multi-element injector tests with gaseous methane from the 1980s, single element tests with gaseous methane funded through the Constellation University Institutes Program, and multi-element injector tests with both gaseous and liquid methane conducted at the NASA MSFC funded by PCAD. For the latter, test results of both impinging and coaxial element injectors using liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellants are included. Configurations were modeled with two one-dimensional liquid rocket combustion analysis codes, the Rocket Combustor Interactive Design and Analysis code and the Coaxial Injector Combustion Model. Special effort was focused on how these codes can be used to model combustion and performance with oxygen/methane propellants a priori, and what anchoring or calibrating features need to be applied, improved or developed in the future. Low frequency combustion instability (chug) occurred, with frequencies ranging from 150 to 250 Hz, with several multi-element injectors with liquid/liquid propellants, and was modeled using techniques from Wenzel and Szuch. High-frequency combustion instability also occurred at the first tangential (1T) mode, at about 4500 Hz, with several multi-element injectors with liquid/liquid propellants. Analyses of the transverse mode instability were conducted by evaluating injector resonances and empirical methods developed by Hewitt.

Hulka, James R.↗

Trade-Wind Cloudiness and Climate

Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection (MCC) consists of mesoscale cloud patches separated by narrow clear regions. Strong radiative cooling occurs at the cloud top. A dry two-dimensional Bousinesq model is used to study the effects of cloud-top cooling on convection. Wide updrafts and narrow downdrafts are used to indicate the asymmetric circulations associated with the mesoscale cloud patches. Based on the numerical results, a conceptual model was constructed to suggest a mechanism for the formation of closed MCC over cool ocean surfaces. A new method to estimate the radioative and evaporative cooling in the entrainment layer of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer has been developed. The method was applied to a set of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) results and to a set of tethered-balloon data obtained during FIRE. We developed a statocumulus-capped marine mixed layer model which includes a parameterization of drizzle based on the use of a predicted Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) number concentration. We have developed, implemented, and tested a very elaborate new stratiform cloudiness parameterization for use in GCMs. Finally, we have developed a new, mechanistic parameterization of the effects of cloud-top cooling on the entrainment rate.

Randall, David A.↗

Analysis of Cirrus Cloud Microphysical Data

The First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Regional Experiment (FIRE) program has the goal of improving our capabilities to understand, model and detect the properties of climatically-important clouds. This is being undertaken through a three-pronged effort of modeling, long-term observations and short-term intensive field studies. Through examination of satellite and other data it is apparent that stratus and cirrus cloud types have the greatest impact on climate due to their radiative effects and ubiquitous nature. As a result, the FIRE program has developed two paths of investigation, each having its own subset of research objectives and measurement programs. The work conducted under this grant was directed toward furthering our understanding of cirrus cloud systems. While it is known that cirrus are climatically important, the magnitude and even sign of the impact is unclear. Cirrus clouds affect the transfer of radiation according to their physical depth and location in the atmosphere and their microphysical composition. However, significant uncertainties still exist in how cirrus clouds form and how they are maintained, what their physical properties are and how they can be parameterized in numerical models. Better remote sensing techniques for monitoring cirrus cloud systems and improved modeling of radiative transfer through ice particles are also needed. A critical element in resolving these issues is a better understanding of cirrus cloud microphysical properties and how they vary. The focus of the research to be conducted under this grant was th data collected in situ by the University of North Dakota Citation aircraft. The goals of this research were to add to the body of knowledge of cirrus cloud microphysics, particularly at the small end of the size spectrum; and analyze the spatial variation of cirrus clouds.

Poellot, Michael R.↗

Satellite Investigations of Fire, Smoke, and Carbon Monoxide during April 1994 MAPS Mission: Case Studies over Tropical Asia

During April 9-19, 1994, the Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) measured free tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations on a near-global basis. For these eleven days the global lkm advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder data are used to detect fires and smoke over the Indo-Burma region (85 degrees E - 110 degrees E; 10 degrees N -30 degrees N). The fire activities are categorized for four major ecosystems that include (1) cropland/natural vegetation mosaic (CNVM), (2) evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), (3) mixed forest (MFD), and (4) grassland (GL). Using published emission rates between particulate matter and carbon monoxide concentrations from temperate areas, the fire counts along with other information are used to obtain estimates of CO concentrations from the AVERR data. More than 7000 fires are detected during the study period with 23%, 43%, 24%, and 10% fires in the CNVM, EBF, MFD, and GL ecosystems, respectively. The enhanced CO concentrations over the area of study are either over or downwind of the fires detected by the AVHRR. The preliminary AVHRR estimates of CO concentrations are smaller than the MAPS-measured values by a factor of 4 to 5 for fire counts areater than 200. The differences are attributed to the lack of transport mechanisms and other assumptions in the current model. However, these results show a good potential for usino the AVHRR measurements to detect fires and smoke and also to estimate CO concentrations.

Christopher, Sundar A.↗

A Thermal Precipitator for Fire Characterization Research

Characterization of the smoke from pyrolysis of common spacecraft materials provides insight for the design of future smoke detectors and post-fire clean-up equipment on the International Space Station. A thermal precipitator was designed to collect smoke aerosol particles for microscopic analysis in fire characterization research. Information on particle morphology, size and agglomerate structure obtained from these tests supplements additional aerosol data collected. Initial modeling for the thermal precipitator design was performed with the finite element software COMSOL Multiphysics, and includes the flow field and heat transfer in the device. The COMSOL Particle Tracing Module was used to determine particle deposition on SEM stubs which include TEM grids. Modeling provided optimized design parameters such as geometry, flow rate and temperatures. Microscopy results from fire characterization research using the thermal precipitator are presented.

Meyer, Marit↗