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At least 883 records · Page 49

Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture the 2015/2016 El Niño Event in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Coral oxygen isotopes (δ^(18)O) from the central equatorial Pacific provide monthly resolved records of El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity over past centuries to millennia. However, calibration studies using in situ data to assess the relative contributions of warming and freshening to coral δ^(18)O records are exceedingly rare. Furthermore, the fidelity of coral δ^(18)O records under the most severe thermal stress events is difficult to assess. Here, we present six coral δ^(18)O records and in situ temperature, salinity, and seawater δ^(18)O data from Kiritimati Island (2°N, 157°W) spanning the very strong 2015/16 El Niño event. Local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of +2.4 ± 0.4°C and seawater δ^(18)O anomalies of −0.19 ± 0.02‰ contribute to the observed coral δ^(18)O anomalies of −0.58 ± 0.05‰, consistent with a ∼70% contribution from SST and ∼30% from seawater δ^(18)O. Our results demonstrate that Kiritimati coral δ^(18)O records can provide reliable reconstructions even during the largest class of El Niño events.

Oxygen isotope anomalies↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

Single Event Effects Test Results for the Actel ProASIC Plus and Altera Stratix-II Field Programmable Gate Arrays

This work describes radiation testing of Actel's ProASIC Plus and Altera's Stratix-II FPGAs. The Actel Device Under Test (DUT) was a ProASIC Plus APA300-PQ208 nonvolatile, field reprogrammable device which is based on a 0.22micron flash-based LVCMOS technology. Limited investigation has taken place into flash based FPGA technologies, therefore this test served as a preliminary reference point for various SEE behaviors. The Altera DUT was a Stratix-II EP2S60F1020C4. Single Event Upset (SEU) and Single Event Latchup (SEL) were the focus of these studies. For the Actel, a latchup test was done at an effective LET of 75.0 MeV-sq cm/mg at room temperature, and no latchup was detected when irradiated to a total fluence of 1 x 10(exp 7) particles/sq cm. The Altera part was shown to latchup at room temperature.

heavy ions↗

Single-Event Effect (SEE) Survey of Advanced Reconfigurable Field Programmable Gate Arrays: NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program Office of Safety and Mission Assurance

The NEPP Reconfigurable Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) task has been charged to evaluate reconfigurable FPGA technologies for use in space. Under this task, the Xilinx single-event-immune, reconfigurable FPGA (SIRF) XQR5VFX130 device was evaluated for SEE. Additionally, the Altera Stratix-IV and SiliconBlue iCE65 were screened for single-event latchup (SEL).

Xilinx Single-Event Effects (SEE) Test Consortium↗

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗

Measurement of the top quark pole mass using $ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}} $+jet events in the dilepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the top quark pole mass $\mathcal{m}^\text{pole}_\text{t}$ in events where a top quark-antiquark pair ($\text{t}\bar{\text{t}}$) is produced in association with at least one additional jet ($\text{t}\bar{\text{t}}$ +jet) is presented. This analysis is performed using proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 36.3 fb -1 . Events with two opposite-sign leptons in the final state (e + e – , μ + μ – , e ± μ ∓ ) are analyzed. The reconstruction of the main observable and the event classification are optimized using multivariate analysis techniques based on machine learning. The production cross section is measured as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the $\text{t}\bar{\text{t}}$ +jet system at the parton level using a maximum likelihood unfolding. Given a reference parton distribution function (PDF), the top quark pole mass is extracted using the theoretical predictions at next-to-leading order. For the ABMP16NLO PDF, this results in $\mathcal{m}^\text{pole}_\text{t}$ = 172.93 ± 1.36 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for a new $Z$' gauge boson in 4$μ$ events with the ATLAS experiment

This paper presents a search for a new Z' vector gauge boson with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider using pp collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . The new gauge boson Z' is predicted by Lμ - Lτ models to address observed phenomena that cannot be explained by the Standard Model. The search examines the four-muon (4μ) final state, using a deep learning neural network classifier to separate the Z' signal from the Standard Model background events. The di-muon invariant masses in the 4μ events are used to extract the Z' resonance signature. No significant excess of events is observed over the predicted background. Upper limits at a 95% confidence level on the Z' production cross-section times the decay branching fraction of pp → Z'μμ → 4μ are set from 0.31 to 4.3 fb for the Z' mass ranging from 5 to 81 GeV. The corresponding common coupling strengths, g Z' , of the Z' boson to the second and third generation leptons above 0.003 – 0.2 have been excluded.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for supersymmetry in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV in events with high-momentum Z bosons and missing transverse momentum

A search for new physics in events with two highly Lorentz-boosted Z bosons and large missing transverse momentum is presented. The analyzed proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb$^{−1}$, were recorded at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The search utilizes the substructure of jets with large radius to identify quark pairs from Z boson decays. Backgrounds from standard model processes are suppressed by requirements on the jet mass and the missing transverse momentum. No significant excess in the event yield is observed beyond the number of background events expected from the standard model. For a simplified supersymmetric model in which the Z bosons arise from the decay of gluinos, an exclusion limit of 1920 GeV on the gluino mass is set at 95% confidence level. This is the first search for beyond-standard-model production of pairs of boosted Z bosons plus large missing transverse momentum.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Investigation into the event-activity dependence of $\Upsilon$(nS) relative production in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 7 TeV

The ratios of the production cross sections between the excited ϒ(2S) and ϒ(3S) mesons and the ϒ(1S) ground state, detected via their decay into two muons, are studied as a function of the number of charged particles in the event. The data are from proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 fb$^{−1}$, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. Evidence of a decrease in these ratios as a function of the particle multiplicity is observed, more pronounced at low transverse momentum $ {p}_{\mathrm{T}}^{\upmu \upmu} $. For ϒ(nS) mesons with $ {p}_{\mathrm{T}}^{\upmu \upmu} $> 7 GeV, where most of the data were collected, the correlation with multiplicity is studied as a function of the underlying event transverse sphericity and the number of particles in a cone around the ϒ(nS) direction. The ratios are found to be multiplicity independent for jet-like events. The mean $ {p}_{\mathrm{T}}^{\upmu \upmu} $ values for the ϒ(nS) states as a function of particle multiplicity are also measured and found to grow more steeply as their mass increases.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Event generation with Sherpa 3

Sherpa is a general-purpose Monte Carlo event generator for the simulation of particle collisions in high-energy collider experiments. We summarise new developments, essential features, and ongoing improvements within the Sherpa 3 release series. Physics improvements include higher-order electroweak corrections, simulations of photoproduction and hard diffraction at NLO QCD, heavy-flavour matching in NLO multijet merging, spin-polarised cross section calculations, and a new model of colour reconnections. In addition, the modelling of hadronisation, the underlying event and QED effects in both production and decay has been improved, and the overall event generation efficiency has been enhanced.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Distinguishing Tidal Disruption Events from Impostors

Recent claimed detections of tidal disruption events (TDEs) in multi-wavelength data have opened potential new windows into the evolution and properties of otherwise dormant supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the centres of galaxies. At present, there are several dozen TDE candidates, which share some properties and differ in others. The range in properties is broad enough to overlap other transient types, such as active galactic nuclei (AGN) and supernovae (SNe), which can make TDE classification ambiguous. A further complication is that “TDE signatures” have not been uniformly observed to similar sensitivities or even targeted across all candidates. This chapter both reviews those events that are unusual relative to other TDEs, including the possibility of TDEs in pre-existing AGN, and summarises those characteristics thought to best distinguish TDEs from continuously accreting AGN, strongly flaring AGN, SNe, and Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs), as well as other potential impostors like stellar collisions, “micro-TDEs,” and circumbinary accretion flows. We conclude that multiple observables should be used to classify any one event as a TDE. We also consider the TDE candidate population as a whole, which, for certain host galaxy or SMBH characteristics, is distinguishable statistically from non-TDEs, suggesting that at least some TDE candidates do in fact arise from SMBH-disrupted stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Correlations between emission events in Rainbow Gravity

Highlights: • It is studied emission correlations between particle emission events in black holes. • Particles emitted have highly correlated moments before the BH stops radiating. • Rainbow Gravity allows maintaining the rest of it stored in its remnant. In this work, we study emission correlations in Rainbow Gravity (RG) black holes known to have black hole remnants. Non-thermal corrections are responsible for generating non-zero correlations between particle emission events during the black hole evaporation process. With this in mind, we calculate the temperatures considering back-reaction effects. Then, we obtain the correlations between emission events for a RG metric proposed by Magueijo and Smolin. We also discuss through a numerical analysis the emission correlations behavior in the last stages of evaporation of the black hole.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced dynamic equivalent identification method of large-scale power systems using multiple events

The increasing complexity of the interconnected power system makes high-fidelity dynamic simulation models computationally more intensive. To improve computation efficiency, model reduction techniques have been investigated to only preserve the dynamics in a limited area of interest (study area), while deriving equivalent representation for the external area. For this purpose, a measurement-based reduction approach using system identification techniques has been previously proposed. Accordingly, external areas are represented by dynamic equivalent loads using transfer function estimation. In this paper, in order to enhance the accuracy of the reduced model in preserving dynamics of the study area, multiple “grid” events of different types and at different locations are considered for identifying the parameters of the equivalent loads. Additionally, case studies are carried out in the NPCC 140-bus system. Comparisons are made between multiple events training and single event training, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in providing a better representation of the grid dynamics under different operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗

The power reliability event simulator tool (PRESTO): A novel approach to distribution system reliability analysis and applications

The growing interest in onsite solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems is partially motivated by customer concerns regarding grid reliability. However, accurately assessing the effectiveness of PVESS in mitigating these interruptions requires a comprehensive understanding of location-specific outage patterns and the ability to simulate realistic scenarios. To address the gap, we introduce the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), the first publicly available tool that simulates location-specific power interruptions at the county level. PRESTO allows for a more realistic assessment of system reliability by considering the unpredictability and location-specific patterns of power interruptions. We applied PRESTO in a case study of a single-family home across three U.S. counties, examining the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with 10kWh of battery storage during short-duration power interruptions. Our findings show that this system reliably met 93% of energy demand for essential non-heating and cooling loads, fully serving these loads in 84% of events, despite the constraints of daily time-of-use bill management which limits the battery's state-of-charge reserve. However, when heating and cooling loads were included, system performance decreased significantly, with only 70% of demand met and full service in 43% of events. These results highlight the challenges of using solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems for short-duration outages, emphasizing the need to consider factors like battery size and grid charging strategies to improve reliability. Our study demonstrates the practical applications of PRESTO, providing valuable insights into potential mitigation strategies including grid charging and optimizing battery size.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Behavior of an air-cooled thermosiphon during a non-air gas ingress event

Here, this study investigates the transient response of an air-cooled thermosiphon subjected to a sudden non-air gas ingress event. Results presented are from experimental testing conducted on a large-scale thermal hydraulic facility that examines heat removal performance of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) concept, a passive safety system for advanced nuclear reactors. Relying on buoyancy driven natural circulation flow, these systems feature a series of riser standpipes and coupled chimney network that provide a pathway for heat rejection to the atmosphere. In this work, the facility was modified to allow a transition of the draft intake from normal ambient air, to draft intake from an open-top volume containing high purity argon. Testing began by establishing normal operation and allowing the facility to reach steady-state thermal hydraulic flow conditions with natural air draft. The transitioned sequence was then initiated which simultaneously changed the inlet boundary from open air to a pathway from the quiescent argon volume. This event caused 1,200 cu-feet of the heavy gas, twice the internal volume of total facility flow path, to be drawn into the inlet plenum and ingress into the heated riser standpipes. With the upper chimney network still containing residual air, there was insufficient density difference to maintain buoyancy driven natural circulation. After a period of only 90 s past the ingress event, the facility experienced complete flow stagnation before entering an extended period of severely degraded system flow. Due to the cessation of bulk fluid movement and subsequent failure of its heat removal function, fluid and structural temperatures began to rise sharply. Re-circulation patterns developed within the multiple parallel riser standpipes, where hot gas near the outlets was observed to travel downward and re-enter the inlet of adjacent channels. After approximately 18-minutes, fluid temperatures and their associated density difference rose to a level sufficient to allow reestablishment of buoyancy driven system flow, and ultimately, recovery of facility operation to normal behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗