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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The frequency of extreme X-ray variability for radio-quiet quasars

ABSTRACT We analyse 1598 serendipitous Chandra X-ray observations of 462 radio-quiet quasars to constrain the frequency of extreme amplitude X-ray variability that is intrinsic to the quasar corona and innermost accretion flow. The quasars in this investigation are all spectroscopically confirmed, optically bright (mi ≤ 20.2), and contain no identifiable broad absorption lines in their optical/ultraviolet spectra. This sample includes quasars spanning z ≈ 0.1–4 and probes X-ray variability on time-scales of up to ≈12 rest-frame years. Variability amplitudes are computed between every epoch of observation for each quasar and are analysed as a function of time-scale and luminosity. The tail-heavy distributions of variability amplitudes at all time-scales indicate that extreme X-ray variations are driven by an additional physical mechanism and not just typical random fluctuations of the coronal emission. Similarly, extreme X-ray variations of low-luminosity quasars seem to be driven by an additional physical mechanism, whereas high-luminosity quasars seem more consistent with random fluctuations. The amplitude at which an X-ray variability event can be considered extreme is quantified for different time-scales and luminosities. Extreme X-ray variations occur more frequently at long time-scales (Δt ≳ 300 d) than at shorter time-scales and in low-luminosity quasars compared to high-luminosity quasars over a similar time-scale. A binomial analysis indicates that extreme intrinsic X-ray variations are rare, with a maximum occurrence rate of $\lt 2.4{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of observations. Finally, we present X-ray variability and basic optical emission-line properties of three archival quasars that have been newly discovered to exhibit extreme X-ray variability.

Timlin, III, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The radio signatures of a slow coronal mass ejection - Electron acceleration at slow-mode shocks?

The evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) event observed on February 17, 1985 is studied using two-dimensional radio imaging observations along with simultaneously obtained coronagraph observations. This event shows that a slow CME can be associated with type II and type IV radio bursts. The implications of the spatial association of the radio bursts with the CME are discussed. It is argued that the CME is due to an instability of the large-scale magnetic field in a helmet streamer and that the radio bursts are some of the responses to this instability. The new feature of this event is the clear association of the moving type IV burst with a CME traveling slower than the coronal Alfven speed. The structure of slow shocks driven by such a CME is discussed, and it is shown that shock drift and diffusive acceleration are ineffective. An acceleration mechanism involving current-driven lower hybrid waves is proposed.

Kundu, M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Thermal Control Subsystem Design for the Avionics of a Space Station Payload

A case study of the thermal control subsystem development for a space based payload is presented from the concept stage through preliminary design. This payload, the Space Acceleration Measurement System 2 (SAMS-2), will measure the acceleration environment at select locations within the International Space Station. Its thermal control subsystem must maintain component temperatures within an acceptable range over a 10 year life span, while restricting accessible surfaces to touch temperature limits and insuring fail safe conditions in the event of loss of cooling. In addition to these primary design objectives, system level requirements and constraints are imposed on the payload, many of which are driven by multidisciplinary issues. Blending these issues into the overall system design required concurrent design sessions with the project team, iterative conceptual design layouts, thermal analysis and modeling, and hardware testing. Multiple tradeoff studies were also performed to investigate the many options which surfaced during the development cycle.

Moran, Matthew E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Radio Bursts and Space Weather

Radio bursts from the Sun are produced by electron accelerated to relativistic energies by physical processes on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio bursts are thus good indicators of solar eruptions. Three types of nonthermal radio bursts are generally associated with CMEs. Type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines. The electrons are thought to be accelerated at the reconnection region beneath the erupting CME, although there is another view that the electrons may be accelerated at the CME-driven shock. Type II bursts are due to electrons accelerated at the shock front. Type II bursts are also excellent indicators of solar energetic particle (SEP) events because the same shock is supposed accelerate electrons and ions. There is a hierarchical relationship between the wavelength range of type /I bursts and the CME kinetic energy. Finally, Type IV bursts are due to electrons trapped in moving or stationary structures. The low frequency stationary type IV bursts are observed occasionally in association with very fast CMEs. These bursts originate from flare loops behind the erupting CME and hence indicate tall loops. This paper presents a summary of radio bursts and their relation to CMEs and how they can be useful for space weather predictions.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk,↗
NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Fate of Saharan Dust Across the Atlantic: An Integrated Modeling and Observational Study of the TC4 Field Campaign

During the NASA TC-4 field campaign in July 2007, several Saharan dust events were observed over the Caribbean basin. A-Train observations suggest that these Saharan dust events are confined the Caribbean and rarely transported across Central America to the Pacific Ocean. We investigate the nature of this barrier to dust transport using the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. Our simulations with GEOS-5 are driven by the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological analyses, and include online simulation of aerosol distributions using a version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model. Simulated dust distributions are evaluated using A-Train observations from MODIS and CALIOP, as well as MISR and ground-based AERONET sun photometers, and show good agreement with the observations in terms of the timing and magnitude of dust events. A component analysis of the dust transport and removal pathways is used to evaluate the relative roles of these processes in establishing the observed dust transport barrier. From this analysis, we show that while both atmospheric dynamics and wet removal contribute towards the Caribbean dust barrier, northward dust transport is the more dominant term. Additional simulations are performed to ascertain the sensitivity of our results to uncertain loss processes (i.e., wet removal) in our model.

Nowottnick, E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Relationship of Magnetotail Flow Bursts and Ground Onset Signatures

It has been known for decades that auroral substorm onset occurs on (or at least near) the most equatorward auroral arc, which is thought to map to the near geosynchronous region. The lack of auroral signatures poleward of this arc prior to onset has been a major criticism of flow-burst driven models of substorm onset. The combined THEMIS 5 spacecraft in-situ and ground array measurements provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the causal relationship between midtail plasma flows, aurora, and ground magnetic signatures. I first present an event from 2008 using multi-spectral all sky imager data from Gillam and in-situ data from THEMIS. The multispectral data indicate an equatorward moving auroral form prior to substorm onset. When this forms reaches the most equatorward arc, the arc brightens and an auroral substorm begins. The THEMIS data show fast Earthward flows prior to onset as well. I discuss further the association of flow bursts and Pi2 pulsations, in the con text of the directly-driven Pi2 model. This model directly links flows and Pi2 pulsations, providing an important constraint on substorm onset theories.

Kepko, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Episodic Earthquake Swarms in the Mineral Mountains, Utah Driven by the Roosevelt Hydrothermal System

Over 1,000 earthquakes (-2.0 < M < 2.0), identified using a matched-filter method, occurred in the Mineral Mountains, Utah between 2016 and 2019. The enhanced catalog is complete down to M -0.9 and contains roughly 15 times more events than originally cataloged. Earthquake relocation of ~800 earthquakes shows that activity is concentrated in a <2 km long E-W striking narrow zone, ~4 km east of the Roosevelt hydrothermal system. Two fault orientations, both N-S and E-W parallel to the Opal Mound and Mag Lee faults, respectively, are observed after computing composite focal mechanisms of highly similar earthquakes. Looking solely at the temporal distribution of the seismicity, we identify 15 periods of swarm-like activity, with two major clusters occurring in December 2016, recorded by three stations, and in October 2019 recorded by eight stations. The October 2019 swarm, the best recorded sequence in the area, provides evidence for the underlying triggering mechanism. We show that a complex mechanism of fluid diffusion and aseismic slip is responsible for the swarm evolution with migration velocities reaching 10 km/day. We hypothesize that these episodic swarms in the Mineral Mountains are primarily driven by migrating fluids that originate within the Roosevelt hydrothermal system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Investigating Extreme Events in the NASA GEOS Multiscale Modeling System

Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.

Putman, William↗
NASA NTRS1995

El Nino and La Nina Events Simulated by the Cane and Zebiak's Model and Observed with Satellite or in situ Data

The Zebiak and Cane (1987) model is first run in its 'forced mode' where the oceanic part of the model is driven by FSU wind stress anomalies over 1980-1994 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies and those are used in the atmospheric part of the model to generate wind anomalies. Simulated thermocline depths, sea surface temperature and wind stress anomalies are first validated with observations.

climate research sea temperature sea wind El Nino ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Distribution System Resilience From Utility Data: Large Event Risk and Benefits of Investments

We focus on blackouts in electric distribution systems that have a large cost to customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we show how to calculate risk metrics from the historical outage data routinely collected by utilities' outage management systems. Risk is defined using a customer cost exceedance curve. The exceedance curve has a heavy tail that implies large fluctuations in large blackout costs, and this makes estimating the mean large cost in the usual way impractical. To avoid this problem, we use new resilience metrics describing the large event risk; these metrics are the probability of a large cost event, the annual log cost resilience index, and the average of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost events or the slope magnitude of the tail on a log–log exceedance curve. Resilience can be improved by planned investments to upgrade system components or speed up restoration. The benefits that these investments would have had if they had been made in the past can be quantified by “rerunning history” with the effects of the investment included, and then recalculating the large event risk to find the improvement in resilience. An example using utility data shows a 2% reduction in the probability of a large cost event due to 10% wind hardening and 6%–7% reduction due to 10% faster restoration in two different areas of a distribution utility. This new data-driven approach to quantify resilience and resilience investments is realistic and much easier to apply than complicated approaches based on modeling all the phases of resilience. Moreover, an appeal to improvements to past lived experience may well be persuasive to customers and regulators in making the case for resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mars global atmospheric oscillations - Annually synchronized, transient normal-mode oscillations and the triggering of global dust storms

Transient events of an unusual character have been discovered in the daily pressure variations of the Mars atmosphere's pressure at the planetary surface which last only a few Martian days, appear to repeat on an annual basis, cover a large part of the given day's hemisphere, occur in pairs separated by 20-days in some cases, and coincide with the annual pressure minimum. They also consist of spectral components nearly identical in frequency with diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics. It is presently suggested that these events are Kelvin, normal-mode, transient, global oscillations. An almost-diurnal and an almost-semidiurnal high-frequency global oscillation distinct from solar-driven tides may be common on Mars.

Tillman, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Magnetotail Structure and its Internal Particle Dynamics During Northward IMF

This study uses Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations driven by solar wind data along with Geotail observations of the magnetotail to investigate the magnetotail's response to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF); observed events used in the study occurred on March 29, 1993 and February 9, 1995. For events from February 9, 1995, we also use the time-dependent MHD magnetic and electric fields and the large-scale kinetic (LSK) technique to examine changes in the Geotail ion velocity distributions. Our MHD simulation shows that on March 29, 1993, during a long period of steady northward IMF, the tail was strongly squeezed and twisted around the Sun-Earth axis in response to variations in the IMF B(sub y) component. The mixed (magnetotail and magnetosheath) plasma observed by Geotail results from the spacecraft's close proximity to the magnetopause and its frequent crossings of this boundary. In our second example (February 9, 1995) the IMF was also steady and northward, and in addition had a significant B(sub y) component. Again the magnetotail was twisted, but not as strongly as on March 29, 1993. The Geotail spacecraft, located approximately 30 R(sub E) downtail, observed highly structured ion distribution functions. Using the time-dependent LSK technique, we investigate the ion sources and acceleration mechanisms affecting the Geotail distribution functions during this interval. At 1325 UT most ions are found to enter the magnetosphere on the dusk side earthward of Geotail with a secondary source on the dawn side in the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL). A small percentage come from the ionosphere. By 1347 UT the majority of the ions come from the dawn side LLBL. The distribution functions measured during the later time interval are much warmer, mainly because particles reaching the spacecraft from the dawnside are affected by nonadiabatic scattering and acceleration in the neutral sheet.

Ashour-Abdalia, M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Magnetotail Structure and its Internal Particle Dynamics During Northward IMF

This study uses Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations driven by solar wind data along with Geotail observations of the magnetotail to investigate the magnetotail's response to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF); observed events used in the study occurred on March 29, 1993 and February 9, 1995. For events from February 9, 1995, we also use the time-dependent MHD magnetic and electric fields and the large-scale kinetic (LSK) technique to examine changes in the Geotail ion velocity distributions. Our MHD simulation shows that on March 29, 1993, during a long period of steady northward IMF, the tail was strongly squeezed and twisted around the Sun-Earth axis in response to variations in the IMF B(sub y) component. The mixed (magnetotail and magnetosheath) plasma observed by Geotail results from the spacecraft's close proximity to the magnetopause and its frequent crossings of this boundary. In our second example (February 9, 1995) the IMF was also steady and northward, and in addition had a significant B(sub y) component. Again the magnetotail was twisted, but not as strongly as on March 29, 1993. The Geotail spacecraft, located approximately 30 R(sub E) downtail, observed highly structured ion distribution functions. Using the time-dependent LSK technique, we investigate the ion sources and acceleration mechanisms affecting the Geotail distribution functions during this interval. At 1325 UT most ions are found to enter the magnetosphere on the dusk side earthward of Geotail with a secondary source on the dawn side in the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL). A small percentage come from the ionosphere. By 1347 UT the majority of the ions come from the dawn side LLBL. The distribution functions measured during the later time interval are much warmer, mainly because particles reaching the spacecraft from the dawn side are affected by nonadiabatic scattering and acceleration in the neutral sheet.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evolution of safety-critical requirements post-launch

This paper reports the results of a small study of requirements changes to the onboard software of three spacecraft subsequent to launch. Only those requirement changes that resulted from post-launch anoma-lies (i.e., during operations) were of interest here, since the goal was to better understand the relation-ship between critical anomalies during operations and how safety-critical requirements evolve. The results of the study were surprising in that anomaly-driven, post-launch requirements changes were rarely due to previous requirements having been incorrect. Instead, changes involved new requirements (1) for the software to handle rare events or (2) for the software to compensate for hardware failures or limitations. The prevalence of new requirements as a result of post-launch anomalies suggests a need for increased requirements-engineering support of maintenance activities in these systems. The results also confirm both the difficulty and the benefits of pursuing requirements completeness, especially in terms of fault tolerance, during development of critical systems.

Software requirements↗
NASA NTRS2016

Solar Coronal Jets: Observations, Theory, and Modeling

Coronal jets represent important manifestations of ubiquitous solar transients, which may be the source of significant mass and energy input to the upper solar atmosphere and the solar wind. While the energy involved in a jet-like event is smaller than that of "nominal" solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), jets share many common properties with these phenomena, in particular, the explosive magnetically driven dynamics. Studies of jets could, therefore, provide critical insight for understanding the larger, more complex drivers of the solar activity. On the other side of the size-spectrum, the study of jets could also supply important clues on the physics of transients close or at the limit of the current spatial resolution such as spicules. Furthermore, jet phenomena may hint to basic process for heating the corona and accelerating the solar wind; consequently their study gives us the opportunity to attack a broad range of solar-heliospheric problems.

Raouafi, N. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Transversely accelerated ions - An ionospheric source of hot magnetospheric ions

The paper considers observational data on transversely accelerated ion (TAI) events observed from the Isis 1 and 2 satellites. A source of hot magnetospheric ions was discovered in the auroral topside ionosphere, and a part of the cold ionospheric ion distribution is transversely accelerated within a source region as low as 1000 km. Subsequent to transverse acceleration, the ions are driven upward into the magnetosphere by the gradient B mirror force; they are observed by the soft particle spectrometers on the Isis 1 and 2 satellites, with sharply defined pitch angle distributions centered between 90 and 120 deg, and with energy distributions up to several hundred electron volts. Observations at 1400 km indicate that the transversely accelerated ion (TAI) events are predominantly a winter nightside auroral zone phenomenon, but in the summertime TAI events were observed at altitudes above 2750 km on the day-side within the cleft. Typical intensities exceeding 10 to the 8th power ions/sq cm s sr during TAI events suggest that they may be a significant source of hot ions for the magnetosphere.

Klumpar, D. M.↗