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DOE OSTI2021

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Greater vulnerability of snowmelt-fed river thermal regimes to a warming climate

While the advective flux from cool melt runoff can be a significant source of thermal energy to mountainous rivers, it has been a much less addressed process in river temperature modeling and thus our understanding is limited with respect to the spatiotemporal effect of melt on river temperatures at the watershed scale. In particular, the extent and magnitude of the melt cooling effect in the context of a warming climate are not yet well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we improved a coupled hydrology and stream temperature modeling system, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model (DHSVM-RBM), to account for the thermal effect of cool snowmelt runoff on river temperatures. The model was applied to a snow-fed river basin in the Pacific Northwest to evaluate the responses of snow, hydrology, stream temperatures, and potential fish growth to future climates. Historical simulations suggest that snowmelt can notably reduce the basin-wide peak summer temperatures particularly at high-elevation tributaries, while the thermal impacts of melt water can persist through the summer along the mainstem. Ensemble climate projections suggested that a warming climate will decrease basin mean peak snow and summer streamflow by 92% and 60% by the end of the century. Due to the compounded influences of warmer temperatures, lower flows and diminished cooling from melt, rivers reaches in high elevation snow-dominated areas were projected to be most vulnerable to future climate change, showing the largest increases in summer peak temperatures. As a result, thermal habitat used by anadromous Pacific salmon was projected to exhibit substantially lower growth potential during summer in future. These results have demonstrated the necessity of accounting for snowmelt influence on stream temperature modeling in mountainous watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Low-GWP Refrigerants Status and Outlook

Refrigeration - including air conditioning (AC) – contributes substantially to the modern life of the 21st century and its economy. The food cold chain, air conditioning, healthcare and energy are examples of sectors for which refrigeration is indispensable. About 5 billion refrigeration systems – of different types and sizes– operate worldwide in different applications [1]. The dominant share of equipment providing refrigeration operate on the vapor-compression-cycle principle and use fluorocarbon refrigerants. Concerns about the environmental safety have become the driving force for refrigerant changes within the last 35 years. The phased-out schedule of stratospheric-ozone-depleting fluids was first formulated by the Montreal Protocol (MP) in 1987 and was made more stringent during the follow-up international meetings [2]. The affected chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) refrigerants were largely replaced by hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).The 2016 Kigali Amendment to the MP [3] responses to the concerns about the Earth climate change. The refrigeration and AC sectors are attributed with about 7.8 % of global greenhouse gas emissions [4]. This contribution comes in the form of direct effect, which is related to refrigerant emissions from refrigeration systems (37 %), and in the form of indirect effect, which is related to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel power plants producing electricity to power refrigeration systems (63 %) [4]. The Kigali Amendment aims at reducing the direct effect. The effect a given molecule has on the climate change is quantified in a simplified manner by its Global Warming Potential (GWP), a relative index referencing the effect produced to that of the same mass of carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere. By definition, GWP of carbon dioxide is equal to one.While HFC refrigerants have on average a lower GWP than the CFCs and HCFCs they replaced, they are still potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). The Kigali Amendment phases down the use of HFCs by imposing a schedule for reducing a weighted GWP value to be implemented by a country through the year 2047 (Figure 1). It provides four paths depending on the country location and category assigned in the MP, and also prescribes a method for establishing the baseline consumption used for calculating GWP reductions. For developing countries, it is expected to bring the weighed GWP across all refrigeration applications down to about 300 from the baseline value of about 2000. The implementation of Kigali Amendment aims at reducing the future warming due to HFCs from the range of 0.3 °C to 0.5 °C to less than 0.1 °C [5]. While this reduction may seem to be small, it must be viewed in the context of the 2015 Paris Agreement [6], which calls for holding global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing to limit global warming to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels [6]. Considering that average global temperatures reached 1 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2015 [7], the Earth is already within 1 °C of the “2 °C limit”.The low-GWP requirement narrows the pool of fluids that can be considered for application as a refrigerant [8]. This Informatory Note discusses low-GWP refrigerant options for major applications and presents their selection merits.

Yana Motta, Samuel↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

SARS-CoV-2 Cases Reported on International Arriving and Domestic Flights: United States, January 2020–December 2021

Objectives. To describe trends in the number of air travelers categorized as infectious with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; the virus that causes COVID-19) in the context of total US COVID-19 vaccinations administered, and overall case counts of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. Methods. We searched the Quarantine Activity Reporting System (QARS) database for travelers with inbound international or domestic air travel, a positive SARS-CoV-2 lab result, and a surveillance categorization of SARS-CoV-2 infection reported during January 2020 to December 2021. Travelers were categorized as infectious during travel if they had arrival dates from 2 days before to 10 days after symptom onset or a positive viral test. Results. We identified 80 715 persons meeting our inclusion criteria; 67 445 persons (83.6%) had at least 1 symptom reported. Of 67 445 symptomatic passengers, 43 884 (65.1%) reported an initial symptom onset date after their flight arrival date. The number of infectious travelers mirrored the overall number of US SARS-CoV-2 cases. Conclusions. Most travelers in the study were asymptomatic during travel, and therefore unknowingly traveled while infectious. During periods of high community transmission, it is important for travelers to stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations and consider wearing a high-quality mask to decrease the risk of transmission. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(8):904–908. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307325 )

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate in E3SM: Impacts of New Cloud Microphysics and Improved Wet Removal Treatments

Abstract Numerous Earth system models exhibit excessive aerosol effective forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), including the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Here, in the context of the E3SM version 3 effort, the predicted particle property (P3) stratiform cloud microphysics scheme and an enhanced deep convection parameterization suite (ZM_plus) are implemented into E3SM. The ZM_plus includes a convective cloud microphysics scheme, a multi‐scale coherent structure parameterization for mesoscale convective systems, and a revised cloud base mass flux formulation considering impacts of the large‐scale environment. The P3 scheme improved cloud and radiation particularly over the Northern Hemisphere and the frequency of heavy precipitation over the tropics, and the ZM_plus improved clouds in the tropics. P3 decreases aerosol effective forcing by 0.15 W m −2 , while the ZM_plus increases it by 0.27 W m −2 , resulting from excessive direct (0.31 W m −2 ) and indirect forcing (−1.79 W m −2 ). The excessive aerosol forcings are due to aerosol overestimation associated with insufficient aerosol wet removal. By improving the physical treatments in the aerosol wet removal, we effectively mitigate anthropogenic aerosol overestimation and thus attenuate direct (0.09 W m −2 ) and indirect aerosol forcing (−1.52 W m −2 ). Adjustment to primary organic matter hygroscopicity reduces direct and indirect forcing to more reasonable values: −0.13 W m −2 and −1.31 W m −2 , respectively. On climatology, improved aerosol treatments mitigate overestimation of aerosol optical depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of meteorological-forcing resolution on hydrologic variables

Projecting the spatiotemporal changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires physically based integrated hydrologic models which simulate the transfer of water and energy across the earth's surface. These models show promise in the context of unprecedented climate extremes given their reliance on the underlying physics of the system as opposed to empirical relationships. However, these techniques are plagued by several sources of uncertainty, including the inaccuracy of input datasets such as meteorological forcing. These datasets, usually derived from climate models or satellite-based products, are typically only resolved on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, while hydrologic variables of interest (e.g., discharge and groundwater levels) require a resolution at much smaller scales. In this work, a high-resolution hydrologic model is forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) generated by a dynamical downscaling analysis from the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Cosumnes watershed, which spans the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley interface of California (USA), exhibits semi-natural flow conditions due to its rare undammed river basin and is used here as a test bed to illustrate potential impacts of various resolutions of meteorological forcing on snow accumulation and snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels. Results show that the errors in spatial distribution patterns impact land surface processes and can be delayed in time. Localized biases in groundwater levels can be as large as 5–10 m and 3 m in surface water. Most hydrologic variables reveal that biases are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for model calibration and ultimately water management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Investigation of several proxies to estimate sulfuric acid concentration in volcanic plume conditions

Sulfuric acid (H2SO4) is commonly accepted as a key precursor for atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). However, direct measurements of [H2SO4] remain challenging, thus preventing the determination of this important quantity, and, consequently, a complete understanding of its contribution to the NPF process. Several proxies have been developed to bridge the gaps, but their ability to predict [H2SO4] in very specific conditions such as those encountered in volcanic plumes (including in particular high sulphur dioxide mixing ratios) has not been evaluated so far. In this context, the main objective of the present study was to develop new proxies for daytime [H2SO4] in volcanic plume conditions and compare their performance to that of the proxies available in the literature. In specific, the data collected at Maïdo during the OCTAVE 2018 campaign, in the volcanic eruption plume of the Piton de la Fournaise, were first used to derive seven proxies based on the knowledge of sulphur dioxide (SO2) mixing ratio, global radiation, condensation sink (CS) and relative humidity (RH). In three of the seven proxies (F1–F3), all variables were given equal weight in the prediction of [H2SO4], while adjusted powers were allowed for the different variables in the other four proxies (A1–A4). Proxies A1–A4 were overall found to perform better compared to F1–F3, with, in specific, improved predictive ability for [H2SO4] > 2 × 108 per cu.cm. The CS was observed to play an important role in regulating [H2SO4], while, in contrast, the inclusion of RH did not improve the predictions. A last expression accounting for an additional sink term related to cluster formation, S1, was also tested and showed a very good predictive ability over the whole range of measured [H2SO4]. The newly developed proxies were in a second step further evaluated using airborne measurements performed in the passive degassing plume of Etna during the STRAP 2016 campaign. Increased correlations between observed and predicted [H2SO4] were obtained when the dependence of predicted [H2SO4] over CS was the lowest, and when the dependence over [SO2] was concurrently the highest. The best predictions were finally retrieved by the simple formulation of F2 (in which [SO2] and radiation alone were assumed to explain the variations of [H2SO4] with equal contributions), with a pre factor adapted to the STRAP data. All in all, our results illustrate the fairly good capacity of the proxy available in the literature to describe [H2SO4] in volcanic plume conditions, but highlight at the same time the benefit of the newly developed proxies for the prediction of the highest concentrations ([H2SO4] > 2–3 × 108 per cu.cm). Also, the contrasting behaviours of the new proxies in the two investigated datasets indicate that in volcanic plumes like in other environments, the relevance of a proxy can be affected by changes in environmental conditions, and that location specific coefficients do logically improve the predictions.

new particle formation↗

DOE OSTI2025

A high-resolution record of Late Holocene drought in the eastern Sierra Nevada (California, USA) from June Lake carbonate geochemistry

As historic drought conditions become more common in western North America, Late Quaternary hydroclimate records become vital for putting present anthropogenic conditions into a longer-term context. Here, we establish a high-resolution record of drought for the eastern Sierra Nevada (California) using lacustrine carbonates from well-dated sediment cores. We used oxygen and carbon stable-isotope ratios, combined with high-resolution scanning X-ray fluorescence counts of calcium (Ca) and titanium (Ti), to reconstruct the drought record over the last 4600 years in June Lake. We found elevated δ 18 O and δ 13 C carbonate isotope values coinciding with peaks in both total inorganic carbon and Ca/Ti, suggesting enhanced carbonate precipitation in response to evaporative concentration of lake water. At least six intervals of prolonged (centennial-scale) carbonate deposition were identified, including three pulses during the Late Holocene Dry Period (LHDP; ~3500–2000 cal yr BP), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~1200–800 cal yr BP), and the Current Warm Period, which began around 100 cal yr BP. This record highlights the complexities of the LHDP, an interval that was more variable at June Lake than has been previously described in regional records.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tethered balloon measurements reveal enhanced aerosol occurrence aloft interacting with Arctic low-level clouds

Low-level clouds in the Arctic affect the surface energy budget and vertical transport of heat and moisture. The limited availability of cloud-droplet-forming aerosol particles strongly impacts cloud properties and lifetime. Vertical particle distributions are required to study aerosol–cloud interaction over sea ice comprehensively. This article presents vertically resolved measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations and sizes using tethered balloons. The data were collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition in the summer of 2020. Thirty-four profiles of aerosol particle number concentration were observed in 2 particle size ranges: 12–150 nm (N 12−150 ) and above 150 nm (N >150 ). Concurrent balloon-borne meteorological measurements provided context for the continuous profiles through the cloudy atmospheric boundary layer. Radiosoundings, cloud remote sensing data, and 5-day back trajectories supplemented the analysis. The majority of aerosol profiles showed more particles above the lowest temperature inversion, on average, double the number concentration compared to below. Increased N 12−150 up to 3,000 cm −3 were observed in the free troposphere above low-level clouds related to secondary particle formation. Long-range transport of pollution increased N >150 to 310 cm −3 in a warm, moist air mass. Droplet activation inside clouds caused reductions of N >150 by up to 100%, while the decrease in N 12−150 was less than 50%. When low-level clouds were thermodynamically coupled with the surface, profiles showed 5 times higher values of N 12−150 in the free troposphere than below the cloud-capping temperature inversion. Enhanced N 12−150 and N >150 interacting with clouds were advected above the lowest inversion from beyond the sea ice edge when clouds were decoupled from the surface. Vertically discontinuous aerosol profiles below decoupled clouds suggest that particles emitted at the surface are not transported to clouds in these conditions. It is concluded that the cloud-surface coupling state and free tropospheric particle abundance are crucial when assessing the aerosol budget for Arctic low-level clouds over sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Tools and Technologies for Monitoring Baleen Whales During Offshore Wind Foundation Installation

Impacts to baleen whales are of particular concern in the context of offshore wind development because of their conservation status, the overlap of their habitat with current and planned offshore wind energy facilities, and their expected sensitivity to low-frequency sounds, such as those produced during pile driving. Therefore, this report focuses on monitoring technologies capable of detecting this species group. The scope of this report is to assess the current state of technologies and methods for monitoring baleen whales in low- and no-light conditions in conjunction with offshore wind foundation installation. This work considers the performance of various sensing technologies that can be used to observe the presence of baleen whales near offshore construction activities. The scope of work includes: 1. Technology Performance Metrics – Identify metrics that can be used to assess technology performance. 2. Technology Evaluation – Synthesize the past performance of technologies with respect to the performance metrics based on available literature. 3. Technology Characterization Framework – Describe a potential framework to characterize technology performance with a standardized approach. 4. Technology Research and Development Needs – Identify future needs and opportunities for research, development, and deployment to improve technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗