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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

DSPS: Differentiable stellar population synthesis

ABSTRACT Models of stellar population synthesis (SPS) are the fundamental tool that relates the physical properties of a galaxy to its spectral energy distribution (SED). In this paper, we present DSPS: a python package for SPS. All of the functionality in DSPS is implemented natively in the JAX library for automatic differentiation, and so our predictions for galaxy photometry are fully differentiable, and directly inherit the performance benefits of JAX, including portability onto GPUs. DSPS also implements several novel features, such as i) a flexible empirical model for stellar metallicity that incorporates correlations with stellar age, ii) support for the Diffstar model that provides a physically-motivated connection between the star formation history of a galaxy (SFH) and the mass assembly of its underlying dark matter halo. We detail a set of theoretical techniques for using autodiff to calculate gradients of predictions for galaxy SEDs with respect to SPS parameters that control a range of physical effects, including SFH, stellar metallicity, nebular emission, and dust attenuation. When forward modelling the colours of a synthetic galaxy population, we find that DSPS can provide a factor of 5 speed-up over standard SPS codes on a CPU, and a factor of 300-400 on a modern GPU. When coupled with gradient-based techniques for optimization and inference, DSPS makes it practical to conduct expansive likelihood analyses of simulation-based models of the galaxy–halo connection that fully forward model galaxy spectra and photometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel Gloeobacterales spp. from Diverse Environments across the Globe

Photosynthetic Cyanobacteria and their descendants are the only known organisms capable of oxygenic photosynthesis. Their metabolism permanently changed the Earth’s surface and the evolutionary trajectory of life, but little is known about their evolutionary history. Genomes of the Gloeobacterales, an order of deeply divergent photosynthetic Cyanobacteria, may hold clues about the evolutionary process. However, there are only three published genomes within this order, and it is difficult to make broad inferences based on such little data. Here, I describe five species within the Gloeobacterales retrieved from publicly available databases and examine their photosynthetic gene content and the environments in which Gloeobacterales genomes and 16S rRNA gene sequences are found. The Gloeobacterales contain reduced photosystems and inhabit cold, wet-rock, and low-light environments. They are likely present in low abundances due to their low growth rate. Future searches for Gloeobacterales should target these environments, and samples should be deeply sequenced to capture the low-abundance taxa. Publicly available databases contain undescribed taxa within the Gloeobacterales. However, searching through all available data with current methods is computationally expensive. Therefore, new methods must be developed to search for these and other evolutionarily important taxa. Once identified, these novel photosynthetic Cyanobacteria will help illuminate the origin and evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis. Early branching photosynthetic Cyanobacteria such as the Gloeobacterales may provide clues into the evolutionary history of oxygenic photosynthesis, but there are few genomes or cultured taxa from this order. Five new metagenome-assembled genomes suggest that members of the Gloeobacterales all contain reduced photosystems and lack genes associated with thylakoids and circadian rhythms. Their distribution suggests that they may thrive in environments that are marginal for other species, including wet-rock and cold environments. These traits may aid in the discovery and cultivation of novel species in this clade.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable quantum computational science: A perspective from block-encodings and polynomial transformations

Significant developments made in quantum hardware and error correction recently have been driving quantum computing toward practical utility. However, gaps remain between abstract quantum algorithmic development and practical applications in computational sciences. In this perspective article, we propose several properties that scalable quantum computational science methods should possess. We further discuss how block-encodings and polynomial transformations can potentially serve as a unified framework with the desired properties. Recent advancements on these topics are presented, including the construction and assembly of block-encodings, and various generalizations of quantum signal processing (QSP) algorithms to perform polynomial transformations. The scalability of QSP methods on parallel and distributed quantum architectures is also highlighted. Promising applications in simulation and observable estimation in chemistry, physics, and optimization problems are presented. We hope this perspective serves as a gentle introduction to state-of-the-art quantum algorithms for the computational science community and inspires future development of scalable quantum computational science methodologies that bridge theory and practice.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Subset Simulation using Hamiltonian Neural Network enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Many Elements Matter?

Some studies of stars' multielement abundance distributions suggest at least 5–7 significant dimensions, but others show that many elemental abundances can be predicted to high accuracy from [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] (or [Fe/H] and age) alone. We show that both propositions can be, and are, simultaneously true. We adopt a machine-learning technique known as normalizing flow to reconstruct the probability distribution of Milky Way disk stars in the space of 15 elemental abundances measured by APOGEE. Conditioning on T eff and $\mathrm{log}\,g$ minimizes the differential systematics. After further conditioning on [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe], the residual scatter for most abundances is σ [X/H] ≲ 0.02 dex, consistent with APOGEE's reported statistical uncertainties of ~0.01–0.015 dex and intrinsic scatter of 0.01–0.02 dex. Despite the small scatter, residual abundances display clear correlations between elements, which we show are too large to be explained by measurement uncertainties or by the finite sampling noise. We must condition on at least seven elements to reduce the correlations to a level consistent with the observational uncertainties. Our results demonstrate that cross-element correlations are a much more sensitive probe of a hidden structure than dispersion, and they can be measured precisely in a large sample even if the star-by-star measurement noise is comparable to the intrinsic scatter. We conclude that many elements have an independent story to tell, even for the mundane disk stars and elements produced by the core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae. The only way to learn these lessons is to measure the abundances directly, and not merely infer them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey: pairwise-inverse probability and angular correction for fibre collisions in clustering measurements

ABSTRACT The completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) catalogues contain redshifts of 344 080 quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2, 174 816 luminous red galaxies between 0.6 < z < 1.0, and 173 736 emission-line galaxies over 0.6 < z < 1.1 in order to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the growth rate of structure through clustering measurements. Mechanical limitations of the fibre-fed spectrograph on the Sloan telescope prevent two fibres being placed closer than 62 arcsec in a single pass of the instrument. These ‘fibre collisions’ strongly correlate with the intrinsic clustering of targets and can bias measurements of the two-point correlation function resulting in a systematic error on the inferred values of the cosmological parameters. We combine the new techniques of pairwise-inverse probability and the angular upweighting (PIP+ANG) to correct the clustering measurements for the effect of fibre collisions. Using mock catalogues, we show that our corrections provide unbiased measurements, within data precision, of both the projected $\rm {\mathit{ w}_p}\left(\mathit{ r}_p\right)$ and the redshift-space multipole ξ(ℓ = 0, 2, 4)(s) correlation functions down to $0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, regardless of the tracer type. We apply the corrections to the eBOSS DR16 catalogues. We find that, on scales $s\gtrsim 20\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ for ξℓ, as used to make baryon acoustic oscillation and large-scale redshift-space distortion measurements, approximate methods such as nearest-neighbour upweighting are sufficiently accurate given the statistical errors of the data. Using the PIP method, for the first time for a spectroscopic program of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we are able to successfully access the one-halo term in the clustering measurements down to $\sim 0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ scales. Our results will therefore allow studies that use the small-scale clustering to strengthen the constraints on both cosmological parameters and the halo occupation distribution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection and characterization of detached tidal dwarf galaxies

Tidal interactions between galaxies often give rise to tidal tails, which can harbor concentrations of stars and interstellar gas resembling dwarf galaxies. Some of these tidal dwarf galaxies (TDGs) have the potential to detach from their parent galaxies and become independent entities, but their long-term survival is uncertain. In this study, we conducted a search for detached TDGs associated with a sample of 39 interacting galaxy pairs in the local Universe using infrared, ultraviolet, and optical images. We employed IR colors and UV/optical/IR spectral energy distributions to identify potential interlopers, such as foreground stars or background quasars. Through spectroscopic observations using the Boller and Chivens spectrograph at San Pedro Mártir Observatory, we confirmed that six candidate TDGs are at the same redshift as their putative parent galaxy pairs. We identified and measured emission lines in the optical spectra and calculated nebular oxygen abundances, which range from log(O/H) = 8.10 ± 0.01 to 8.51 ± 0.02. We have serendipitously discovered an additional detached TDG candidate in Arp72 using available spectra from SDSS. Utilizing the photometric data and the CIGALE code for stellar population and dust emission fitting, we derived the stellar masses, stellar population ages, and stellar metallicities for these detached TDGs. Compared to standard mass-metallicity relations for dwarf galaxies, five of the seven candidates have higher than expected metallicities, confirming their tidal origins. One of the seven candidates remains unclear due to large uncertainties in metallicity, and another has stellar and nebular metallicities compatible with those of a preexisting dwarf galaxy. The latter object is relatively compact in the optical relative to its stellar mass, in contrast to the other candidate TDGs, which have large diameters for their stellar masses compared to most dwarf galaxies. The derived stellar population ages range from 100 Myr to 900 Myr, while the inferred stellar masses are between 2 × 10 6 M ⊙ and 8 × 10 7 M ⊙ . Four of the six TDGs are associated with the gas-rich M51-like pair Arp 72, one TDG is associated with a second M51-like pair Arp 86, and another is associated with Arp 65, an approximately equal mass pair. In spite of the relatively low stellar masses of these TDGs, they have survived for at least 100–900 Myrs, suggesting that they are stable and in dynamical equilibrium. We conclude that encounters with a relatively low-mass companion (1/10th–1/4th of the mass of the primary) can also produce long-lasting TDGs.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

LABQ3: Bayesian method for quantification of mineral compositions and nano-scale elemental mapping of 3D synchrotron XCT data

Quantitative analysis of mineral compositions is essential in understanding geochemical, mineralogical and environmental processes. Fine-resolution 3D imaging is widely done using synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (XCT), but existing analyses are limited to visualization and segmentation. This paper presents a new method, Linear Attenuation Bayesian Quantitative 3D-mapper (LABQ3), based on the linearity of X-ray attenuation with respect to elemental concentrations. To address the random variability in attenuation measurements, LABQ3 employs Bayesian decision theory to minimize classification error, using reference attenuation distributions from scans of pure mineral standards. To demonstrate LABQ3 and test its performance, we studied precipitated carbonate samples. XCT scans were done at multiple energies using the transmission X-ray microscope (TXM) at beamline 32-ID-C of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The reconstructed 3D images have a voxel size of 20 nm. Analyses revealed rich nano-scale compositional heterogeneity within individual particles. A mixture of calcium and cadmium produced an overall stoichiometric composition of (Ca 0.78 ,Cd 0.22 )CO 3 , with some voxels containing nearly pure CdCO 3 . The addition of zinc led to an overall stoichiometric composition of 33% Ca, 28% Cd, 39% Zn, with a nearly pure CaCO 3 core and compositional zonation through the rim. These compositional gradients are related to temporal sequences of carbonate mineral formation where Cd precipitated at the beginning in (Ca,Cd)CO 3 , while Cd and Zn precipitated at the end in (Ca, Cd,Zn)CO 3 . Results differ from bulk analyses using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing that LABQ3 provides particle-specific insights. LABQ3 distinguishes itself by quantifying chemical compositions along a continuum, making it different from XCT analyses based on segmentation. LABQ3 allows simultaneous acquisition of morphology and chemical composition in 3D, facilitating the interpretation of chemical gradients of trace elements, quantification of solid solution compositions, inferences about temporal sequences of mineral precipitation, and addressing other concerns about solid-phase chemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: Combining cross-spectral foreground cleaning with multitracer B -mode delensing for improved constraints on inflation

The Simons Observatory (SO), due to start full science operations in early 2025, aims to set tight constraints on inflationary physics by inferring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization B-modes. Its nominal design including three small-aperture telescopes (SATs) targets a precision σ⁡(r = 0) ≤ 0.003 without delensing. Achieving this goal and further reducing uncertainties requires a thorough understanding and mitigation of other large-scale B-mode sources such as Galactic foregrounds and weak gravitational lensing. We present an analysis pipeline aiming to estimate r by including delensing within a cross-spectral likelihood, and demonstrate it for the first time on SO-like simulations accounting for various levels of foreground complexity, inhomogeneous noise and partial sky coverage. As introduced in an earlier SO delensing paper, lensing B-modes are synthesized using internal CMB lensing reconstructions as well as Planck-like cosmic infrared background maps and LSST-like galaxy density maps. We then extend SO’s power-spectrum-based foreground-cleaning algorithm to include all auto- and cross-spectra between the lensing template and the SAT B-modes in the likelihood function. This allows us to constrain r and the parameters of our foreground model simultaneously. Within this framework, we demonstrate the equivalence of map-based and cross-spectral delensing and use it to motivate an optimized pixel-weighting scheme for power spectrum estimation. We start by validating our pipeline in the simplistic case of uniform foreground spectral energy distributions. In the absence of primordial B-modes, we find that the 1⁢σ statistical uncertainty on r, σ⁡(r), decreases by 37% as a result of delensing. Tensor modes at the level of r = 0.01 are successfully detected by our pipeline. Even when using more realistic foreground models including spatial variations in the dust and synchrotron spectral properties, we obtain unbiased estimates of r both with and without delensing by employing the moment-expansion method. In this case, uncertainties are increased due to the higher number of model parameters, and delensing-related improvements range between 27% and 31%. These results constitute the first realistic assessment of the delensing performance at SO’s nominal sensitivity level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generation-Storage Coordination Dispatch Strategy for Power System Based on Causal Reinforcement Learning

In the backdrop of global energy transformation, power systems integrating high proportions of renewable energy sources are facing unprecedented challenges in operational stability and dispatch efficiency. To address these challenges, this study introduces a generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch strategy based on Causal Power System Dynamic Reinforcement Learning (CPSDRL). Diverging from traditional reinforcement learning approaches, CPSDRL innovatively incorporates causal inference within the state prediction model - the crux of model-based reinforcement learning - thereby establishing the Power Causal Dynamic Model (PCDM). Assisted by the prior knowledge of power systems, the model significantly enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through a two-stage training process. Utilizing PCDM, this study further applies a direct policy search algorithm to optimize the real-time dispatch strategy. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method improves the stability of generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch and exhibits competitive advantages in sample efficiency and computational speed, compared to traditional model-based and model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This method is expected to enhance the practicality and adaptability of causal reinforcement learning techniques in power system scheduling and control.

causal reinforcement learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2022

Laser diagnostics to characterize the in-flame growth of platinum nanoparticles manufactured by the reactive spray deposition technology

Reactive Spray Deposition Technology (RSDT) is an atmospheric pressure, flame-based advanced manufacturing method used to fabricate Membrane Electrode Assemblies (MEAs) for proton exchange fuel cells and water electrolyzers. RSDT combines the flame synthesis of catalyst nanoparticles and their deposition onto the membrane in one step. The properties of the synthesized nanoparticles, such as their Size Distribution Function (SDF), determine the manufactured electrodes’ performance, which can be evaluated when the deposition is complete via ex-situ characterization of the products. Efforts to improve RSDT for manufacturing state-of-the-art MEAs can be significantly enhanced with integrated laser diagnostics that enable in situ measurement of the synthesized catalyst nanoparticles. This paper reports the implementation of laser diagnostics in an RSDT facility and evaluates their potential to assist the manufacturing process. Laser Light Scattering (LS) and Laser-Induced Incandescence (LII) measurements are performed in the oxygen-rich zone of the flame at various distances from the flame fuel jet nozzle downstream of its luminous region. The measurements quantitatively track the evolution in size and volume fraction of platinum-based nanoparticles in two flames that yield different catalytic properties in the manufactured electrodes. The profiles of the measured nanoparticles’ volume fraction along the flame axis can be estimated a priori so that the average nanoparticle sizes can be measured in quasi-real time via LS. Nanoparticles experience an extremely slow growth rate while being convected at distances from 150 nm to 300 nm from the fuel nozzle. Complementary characterizations of the synthesized nanoparticles are performed ex-situ via High-Angle Annular Darkfield Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (HAADF-STEM) image analyses of samples collected on grids at a fixed distance from the fuel jet nozzle. Comparing the results from laser and microscopy techniques not only cross-validates the findings but also provides the parameters to infer the bimodal SDF in-situ and yields evidence that the coagulation efficiency of the synthesized nanoparticles has extremely low values in the investigated zone of the flames.

Rayleigh Light Scattering (LS)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Spectroscopy with DESI for Photometric Redshift Training and Calibration

Deep spectroscopic samples can improve photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates and reduce uncertainties on redshift distributions. Such improvements can increase the cosmological constraining power of large imaging-based experiments such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and mitigate what may be a limiting systematic effect. We present results from the “DESI-Deep pilot” program, which was designed to assess the capability of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) on the 4m Mayall telescope to measure redshifts of galaxies as faint as expected lensing samples for early LSST data (m i ≤ 24.5). We find that DESI is remarkably efficient at this task, with redshift success rates comparable to the results of observations from 10 m class telescopes with only ∼2 × longer integration time (rather than ∼8 × longer as would be expected from aperture-area scaling), while simultaneously achieving ∼30 times larger multiplexing. We also find that the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectra scales as expected for background-limited observations even for the longest exposure times (∼7 hr) and faintest targets in the program. These results demonstrate that DESI could provide the definitive redshift sample for the early years of LSST with a modest investment of observing time. Based upon the results of this program, we provide updated predictions for the time required to collect benchmark samples for photo-z training and calibration using a variety of spectroscopic facilities. Finally, we describe a potential “DESI-Deep” survey designed to train and calibrate photo-z’s for imaging experiments, and provide forecasts of its impact on cosmological inference.

Dey, Biprateep [University of Toronto; University ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping causal patterns in crystalline solids

The evolution of the atomic structures of the combinatorial library of Sm-substituted thin film BiFeO 3 along the phase transition boundary from the ferroelectric rhombohedral phase to the non-ferroelectric orthorhombic phase is explored using scanning transmission electron microscopy. Localized properties, including polarization, lattice parameter, and chemical composition, are parameterized from atomic-scale imaging, and their causal relationships are reconstructed using a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model. This approach is further extended to explore the spatial variability of the causal coupling using the sliding window transform method, which revealed that new causal relationships emerged at both the expected locations, such as domain walls and interfaces, and at additional regions forming clusters in the vicinity of the walls or spatially distributed features. While the exact physical origins of these relationships are unclear, they likely represent nanophase-separated regions in the morphotropic phase boundaries. Overall, we posit that an in-depth understanding of complex disordered materials away from thermodynamic equilibrium necessitates understanding not only the generative processes that can lead to observed microscopic states but also the causal links between multiple interacting subsystems.

Causal inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗