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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Mid-Century Net-Zero Scenario for the State of Wyoming and its Economic Impacts

Clean hydrogen has the potential to help achieve 10% economy-wide emissions reductions by 2050 relative to 2005, promote energy security and resilience, and develop a new economy in the United States. In 2030, the hydrogen economy could create about 100,000 new jobs to build new capital projects and clean hydrogen infrastructure. The Wyoming Energy Authority recently announced the state’s energy strategy, which establishes a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Under all likely scenarios, achieving a mid-century net-zero target will pose challenges and create opportunities for Wyoming’s energy sector. If executed properly, the transition could favorably affect the state’s economy overall in the long term. This research program examines the economic impact of fossil energy production in Wyoming and provides various predictions for future energy mixes to achieve net-zero emissions. Preliminary work suggests that Wyoming-based hydrogen production could have significant economic benefits and job creation implications for Wyoming. This study further assesses Wyoming’s opportunities to create hydrogen-based industries, assess economic impacts, identify knowledge gaps and research needs, and create a Hydrogen Center of Excellence to accelerate commercialization and deployment. This project helped to understand Wyoming's areas of focus for research and development and identified its areas of strength and potential challenges in creating a hydrogen ecosystem. As a result of this study, we estimate that for blue hydrogen produced from coal and gas resources, the overall cost reduction will be driven mainly by the carbon-sequestration tax credit and the improvement in carbon capture. Mature technologies, like SMR and PSA, will make limited contributions. They have no or limited reductions from an additional capacity deployment in future costs. We also understand the importance of continued support from public and private sectors for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)-related research, development, and demonstration programs at federal and state levels. The successful and efficient production of blue hydrogen requires a unique blend of energy resources, geology, regulation, law, and infrastructure. Wyoming has the distinction of meeting all these demands. The team also estimates that the availability and command of water resources accessible for hydrogen production are crucial for developing new projects. Water treatment, use, and disposal after treatment will also make projects possible. Primarily, this is relevant for hydrogen made using renewable energy. Wyoming has one of the best wind resource capacity in the nation. Harnessing this resource is challenging due to limited transmission line availability. Hydrogen could become one of the solutions to the stranded resource problem, primarily if the water availability challenge is addressed. Using produced oil & gas water could help to solve the problem. A commonly cited barrier to the expansion of hydrogen markets is the cost associated with constructing new pipelines, which typically require large amounts of capital to develop. Wyoming already possesses much of the export infrastructure needed to connect Wyoming’s hydrogen production with major markets across the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Front Range regions of the United States, where a large portion of Wyoming’s natural gas is already transported. In addition to transportation by pipeline, rail transportation of hydrogen has also proven feasible. Wyoming uses its extensive railway system to transport large amounts of coal to its export partners across the United States. By using cryogenic or compressed-gas cars, Wyoming has the potential to add hydrogen to its existing network of railroad energy exports. The same technology may also be applied to hydrogen transport via trucks traveling interstate highways. Wyoming’s workforce is ready to meet the demands of clean hydrogen development. Many of the skills and training needed for hydrogen production are the same skills already possessed by Wyoming’s oil & gas and coal workforce. Many government and industry leaders expect clean hydrogen and other low-carbon energy projects to generate significant job growth and to recruit many already-trained oil & gas and coal workers whose jobs may be displaced. As energy companies seek to penetrate the markets for Wyoming hydrogen production, there is a natural mutual benefit to Wyoming’s workers and companies seeking to launch projects with the assistance of a trained workforce. Wyoming’s university and community college system have adopted several programs to ensure that highly qualified engineers and other technically skilled employees continue to graduate with skills to support the development of hydrogen and other innovative energy projects moving forward. Throughout the project, stakeholder outreach and education took many forms, including meetings with several major companies in the industry, collaborating with local government organizations, educational organizations, and national laboratories, tribal outreach and engagement, the sponsoring of several hydrogen-focused projects in many departments throughout the University of Wyoming, and developing a collaboration with international universities. The products of these collaborations consist of working relationships with several companies in the industry, educational institutions, national labs, and local government, as well as strong connections with individuals who will play an essential role in the success of the Hydrogen Energy Research Center.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wireless Sensing and Communication Capability from In-Core to a Monitoring Center

Significant cost savings can be made if electrical cables can be replaced by wireless technology in current Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) and in advance reactor designs. Wireless technology can also provide in-core opportunities by significantly reducing the number of penetrations in the pressure vessel, cost and complexity of sensor installation and by increasing the efficiency of current and advanced reactors. Unlike other deployment scenarios for an industrial environment, operators need to have centralized control over all the networks. Centralized control will reduce implementation costs, provide single point control and enable monitoring of network devices, improve security, and enhance connectivity. Micro-sensors that can simultaneously monitor temperature and pressure within a fuel rod inside nuclear reactors will enable preventative actions during abnormal operating conditions. This ability could avert accidents and enable the expedient development of accident tolerant fuels. A novel micro-sensor suite (~ mm) to simultaneously measure multiple parameters such as temperature, strain, pressure, and neutron/gamma flux inside a fuel rod is being developed for use in reactors. The necessary communication architecture is also being developed to transmit measurement signals from the core to the plant's data cloud or control room. A three three-tier strategy has been developed to support wireless transmission of in-core measurements to the control room or to a secure cloud platform for control, analytics, and decision-making purposes. 1. In-core: data signal from in-core to outside of the pressure vessel within the containment building 2. Containment building: data signal from inside to the outside of the containment building and into the balance of the plant network 3. Balance of the plant network: information transmitted to the data cloud and control room This plan presents a wireless sensing and communication system for use within a reactor core and elsewhere. The communication technology is advantageous to compensate for network equipment failures and adverse data transmission conditions. Wireless technology will significantly increase the resiliency of the plants network system. The wireless system naturally provides multiple transmission path capability and data redundancy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Review of Existing Test Methods for Occupancy Sensors

One of the key new features of connected lighting systems (CLS) is their ability to collect data from various types of integral sensors and share that data with other lighting or building systems. Occupancy and vacancy sensors have been widely adopted as an energy-saving strategy in buildings, yet published test methods for reproducibly characterizing their performance remain few and limited in their sophistication. As a result, it has been difficult to predict their performance in a specific application, and in practice, they frequently do not meet energy-savings expectations. Occupants at times remove or otherwise bypass occupancy sensors that hinder their work or otherwise do not perform as expected, thereby compromising the sensors’ potential to reduce energy consumption. Poor performance can result from multiple causes – ranging from fundamental limitations of the sensor technology, to misconfiguration, to poor placement in the room or space. Innovative occupancy sensors, some of them combining multiple sensing technologies, have come on the market over the years, with claims of improved performance compared to their predecessors; yet in practice, their performance has led to neither high deployment nor high user satisfaction in any significant application, nor has it differed enough from the performance of previous products to necessitate a test method that facilitated comparison between them. While the performance of both common and novel occupancy sensors has been the subject of many published research articles, the test methods that have been employed for them have typically been loosely described and incorporated custom equipment or techniques that render them difficult to reproduce, or have been limited in their ability to fairly characterize devices that utilize varying sensor technology. The lack of a well-described, technology-agnostic test method that yields reproducible results across different implementations has been a barrier to the commercial success of new occupancy sensor products, as users and specifiers who have been disappointed with previous products are often unwilling to take a chance with new ones. Motivated by a desire to fairly characterize new technologies that continue to enter the market and claim not only improved occupancy detection but, in some cases, also additional capabilities (e.g., the ability to measure traffic or discern between different object types), this report presents the results of a literature review of recent published, well-described test methods for characterizing occupancy sensor performance, as well as research articles containing ad-hoc test methods. The review also identifies and consolidates the best techniques for characterizing sensor performance in indoor spaces and identifies test method gaps that need to be filled in order to evaluate emerging technologies and products.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge: Tracking Metrics and Mid-2024 Dashboard

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge is the result of the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other federal government agencies working together to develop a comprehensive strategy for scaling up new technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) on a commercial scale. The SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap outlines a whole-of-government approach with coordinated policies and specific activities that should be undertaken to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge goals. Progress made supporting the SAF Grand Challenge occurs when federal agencies release new funding opportunities and initiatives aligned with the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap; provide expertise and technical assistance to industry; increase interagency collaboration; and provide data, modeling, and analysis to decision makers. To track progress on achieving the SAF Grand Challenge goals, the following four metrics have been developed: Estimated total U.S. SAF production. Estimated life cycle CO2 equivalent reductions achieved with U.S. SAF production and use. Planned production potential of SAF in the United States. Applicable research, development, demonstration, and deployment projects. SAF Grand Challenge Goal Progress

Aviation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Fine-Grained Occupancy Estimation Patterns for Effective HVAC Control

As occupancy sensing technologies become mature, various occupancy sensors are increasingly deployed in commercial buildings for pervasive occupancy monitoring. These sensors provide occupant-count data, which contains rich spatiotemporal information about occupancy patterns. With long-term occupant-count data collected from a commercial building, we design three different predictive models that capture the occupancy dynamics and examine how a model predictive control of the HVAC system benefits from actual occupancy count prediction. Our analysis reveals that mispredictions of occupancy states, especially false positives and false negatives, may introduce inefficient control that leads to energy waste or user discomfort. To address this issue, we take a step further to design an adaptive model predictive controller that minimizes inefficient control actions according to misprediction types and distributions. A comprehensive evaluation is performed in OpenBuild and EnergyPlus simulators to study the effectiveness of the proposed end-to-end control strategy. The evaluation shows that the proposed solution reduces energy consumption by 29.5% while improving the average weighted occupants comfort by 86.7% in Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) over the fixed schedule strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative techno-economic analysis of synthetic renewable natural gas production via reactive CO 2 capture and conversion

Reactive CO 2 capture and conversion (RCC) is an emerging carbon management strategy that integrates CO 2 capture and conversion and avoids intermediate CO 2 purification. In this study, we design an RCC process to capture atmospheric CO 2 and react it with renewable hydrogen to produce synthetic renewable natural gas (SRNG), which serves as a carbon-neutral energy source and a chemical form of long-duration renewable energy storage. We assess the technological potential of RCC through process modeling, techno-economic, carbon footprint, and sensitivity analyses. Our findings demonstrate that RCC offers energy savings and comparable cost to separated capture and conversion processes. The cost is dominated by renewable hydrogen and material replacement cost. SRNG produced via RCC is competitive with existing low-carbon natural gas technologies and presents a promising low-cost option for long-duration energy storage. This work highlights the potential for deploying RCC technologies within a circular carbon economy and the scientific and technical challenges that must be overcome for material and technology developers.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbonylative Co- and Terpolymerizations of 10-Undecen-1-ol: A Route to Polyketoesters with Tunable Compositions

A strategy to synthesize branched polyketoesters from the carbonylative polymerization of bifunctional α,ω-alkenols such as 10-undecen-1-ol is presented. This strategy hinges on the competitive application of two related catalytic manifolds, alternating alkene/CO copolymerization, and alkene hydroesterification, which share a common metal acyl intermediate. Small molecule model studies of cationic Pd-catalyzed alkene carbonylation in the presence of alcohols demonstrate that the relative rates of ketone formation (through alternating alkene/CO insertion) and ester formation (through metal acyl alcoholysis) can be tuned across a wide range through judicious bis(phosphine) ligand design. Carbonylative polymerization of 10-undecen-1-ol with a (dppp(3,5-CF 3 ) 4 )Pd(OTs) 2 catalyst (dppp(3,5-CF 3 ) 4 = 1,3-bis[bis[3,5-bis(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-phosphino]propane) led to the formation of high molecular weight polyketoesters with intermediate dispersity (M n > 20,000 g/mol, D- = 2.6) and a ketone/ester microstructure ratio of approximately 1:2. In these polymerization reactions, deploying electron-deficient bis(phosphines) to suppress deleterious alkene isomerization was the key to accessing the high molecular weight polymer. Further, terpolymerization reactions of 1-hexene/10-undecen-1-ol/CO or 1-fluoro-10-undecene/10-undecen-1-ol/CO by (dppp(3,5-CF 3 ) 4 )Pd(OTs) 2 were also successful. Furthermore, this proof of concept polymerization unlocks access to tunable polymer microstructures without extensive postpolymerization treatment.

10-undecen-1-ol↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time power management technique for microgrid with flexible boundaries

In order to diminish the impacts brought by high penetration of renewable energy on the reliability of distribution systems, some distribution networks (e.g. Chattanooga electric power board system) have deployed smart switches (SSs) to island some areas to mitigate outage losses. However, due to intermittency and sharply changing rate of renewable energy, it is likely to experience insufficient or excessive power for islanded areas. Therefore, a microgrid controller featured with flexible boundaries is proposed. With proposed microgrid controller, the microgrid can not only shrink or expand its boundaries according to current renewable energy supply, but also disconnect/connect to the main grid with a designated SS. Furthermore, to ensure the microgrid controller could obtain suitable boundaries on the time scale of seconds, a real-time power management technique with alternative generating algorithm is designed to generate all possible alternative boundaries and choose the optimal one, which is scalable to any topology. In addition, in order to maintain state of charge of batteries within a desirable range, anti-overcharge/discharge strategies are designed. Four comprehensive experiments verify that the implementation of the microgrid controllers can realise flexible boundaries and deal with sharply changing rate of renewable generation or load on the time scale of seconds.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure and sequence evolution in the pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense ) pangenome

Eukaryotic genomes harbor many forms of variation, including nucleotide diversity and structural polymorphisms, which experience natural selection and contribute to genome evolution and biodiversity. Harnessing this variation for agriculture hinges on our ability to detect, quantify, catalog, and deploy genetic diversity. Here, we explore seven complete genomes of the emerging biofuel crop pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense ) drawn from across the species' current genetic diversity to catalog variation in genome structure and content. Across this new pangenome resource, we find contrasting evolutionary modes in different genomic zones. Gene-poor, repeat-rich pericentromeric regions experience frequent rearrangements, including repeated centromere repositioning. By contrast, conserved gene-dense chromosome arms maintain large-scale synteny across accessions even in fast-evolving NOD-like receptor immune genes, where microsynteny breaks down across species, but gene cluster positioning macrosynteny is maintained. Our findings highlight that multiple elements of the genome experience dynamic evolution that conserves functional content on the chromosome scale but allows repositioning and presence–absence variation on a local scale. This diversity is invisible to classical reference-based strategies and highlights the strength and utility of pangenomic resources. These results provide a valuable case study of rapid genomic structural evolution within a species and powerful resources for crop development in an emerging biofuel crop.

Thlaspi arvense↗
DOE OSTI2026

Addressing the split incentive challenge for rooftop solar PV and battery energy storage in multifamily rental buildings (CRADA 638 Final Report)

This project advances the understanding of how roof solar PV systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS) can be effectively deployed in multifamily residential buildings, a sector that has historically faced barriers due to misaligned incentives between landlords and tenants. By leveraging high-resolution building stock data and simulation tools, the research demonstrates how energy consumption patterns vary across building types, climates, and occupant characteristics, and how these variations influence the optimal sizing and operation of distributed energy resources. A key contribution is the development of a publicly accessible, web-based tool named RESIDE (Residential Energy Systems & Infrastructure Data Evaluation) that allows users to explore building energy use and evaluate solar and battery configurations without requiring specialized expertise. This significantly lowers the barrier to entry for stakeholders such as property owners, utilities, and policymakers. From a technical perspective, the project shows that integrating rooftop solar PV with battery energy storage can substantially reduce electricity costs and peak demand through strategies such as energy arbitrage and peak shaving. The modeling framework incorporates real-world constraints, including time-of-use electricity pricing and battery degradation, providing realistic and actionable insights. Economically, the results indicate that properly sized systems can deliver meaningful cost savings, improving the feasibility of energy investments in multifamily housing. More broadly, the project benefits the public by supporting the transition to affordable and reliable energy, particularly in rental multifamily housing where adoption has traditionally lagged.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Solar PV Deployment in Manufacturing: A Morphological Matrix and Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach

The growing energy demand of the industrial sector and the need for sustainable solutions highlight the importance of efficient decision making in solar photovoltaic (PV) implementation. Selecting optimal PV configuration is complex due to the interdependent technical, economic, environmental, and social factors involved. This study introduces an integrated decision-making method combining a morphological matrix and fuzzy TOPSIS to systematically select and rank optimal PV system configurations for manufacturing firms. While the morphological matrix exhaustively examines possible design solutions based on sensing, smart, sustainable, and social (S4) attributes, the fuzzy TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives by handling uncertainty in decision making. A case study conducted in a Mexican manufacturing company validates the methodology’s effectiveness. The optimal PV configuration identified comprehensively addresses operational and sustainability criteria, covering all lifecycle stages. This approach demonstrates quantitative superiority and greater robustness compared to existing fuzzy TOPSIS-based methods for solar PV applications. The findings highlight the practical value of data-driven, multi-criteria decision making for industrial solar energy adoption, enhancing project feasibility, cost efficiency, and environmental compliance. Future research will incorporate discrete event simulation (DES) to further refine energy consumption strategies in manufacturing.

Briceño, Citlaly Pérez↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified Universal Control and Coordination of Inverter-Based Resources, and Validation for a PV + Battery Hybrid Plant

As renewable energy deployment grows, hybrid power plants (HPPs) combining photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems must evolve to offer both energy and grid stability services. These systems typically include a mix of grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) inverters, presenting unique coordination and control challenges. This Department of Energy–funded project developed and validated a Unified Universal Control and Coordination (UUCC) framework for such PV + battery hybrid plants, enabling seamless and stable operation, including ultrafast black start, autonomous synchronization, and robust frequency and voltage regulation, under different grid conditions. The project significantly advanced the understanding of inverter-based resource (IBR) control by developing and validating three complementary system-level approaches for hybrid GFL/GFM operation: 1. A combined Virtual Resistance (VR)-based GFL and Virtual Oscillator Control (VOC)-based GFM method, where each inverter type is governed by a specialized control strategy. Together, these achieve stable, fast-response coordination, eliminating inrush current and enabling smooth black start and grid synchronization across a wide range of grid strengths. 2. A Deadbeat-based UUCC strategy, which uses discrete-time, switching-cycle-level control for both GFL and GFM inverters. This approach replaces traditional PI/PLL control with a control parameter-free, high-bandwidth framework that supports stable LVRT and instantaneous synchronization under all conditions. 3. A benchmark comparison with Siemens’ commercial GFM microgrid controller, which provided a fast baseline platform. The commercial approach decoupled v & f control was implemented on a commercial microgrid controller.The baseline commercial benchmark helped highlight superior transient response and black start performance offered by the deadbeat and VOC approaches. These technical contributions offer substantial improvements over conventional inverter control schemes, which often rely on slow phase-locked loop (PLL)-based synchronization, require careful control parameters tuning, and prone to unstable in weak grids with GFL inverters and in stiff grid with GFM inverters therefore challenging for hybrid GFL+GFM under all grid conditions. The deadbeat-based UUCC framework enables simpler, faster, and more robust operation of hybrid IBR systems using wide-bandgap (WBG) devices such as SiC power semiconductors. The rapid expansion of hybrid distributed energy resources (DERs), including residential and commercial PV-BESS installations such as Tesla Powerwall, PV with vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capability, and other integrated configurations, presents complex operational challenges for medium-voltage radial distribution feeders. These networks are subject to frequent disturbances such as faults, switching operations, rapid reclosing sequences, and feeder reconfigurations, all of which introduce dynamic stress on IBRs. In addition, planned feeder segmentation and deliberate islanding for resilience will require DERs that can autonomously perform blackstart, establish voltage and frequency references, and resynchronize with the main grid. The advanced deadbeat-based UUCC control and blackstart functionalities developed in this project directly address these requirements, enabling decentralized and autonomous operation of inverter-dominated DERs in distribution systems under a wide range of fault and reconfiguration scenarios. From a public benefit perspective, these innovations enable more reliable and cost-effective integration of renewable energy into distribution networks. The ability to autonomously black start and stabilize grids under varying grid conditions support accelerates recovery from outages and support decentralized resilient energy systems. By reducing system complexity and improving performance, this project lays critical groundwork for future inverter-dominated power grids that are clean, reliable, and accessible to all.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

ISO 50001-Based Energy Management Systems as a Practical Path for Decarbonization: Initial Findings from a Survey of Technical Assistance Cohort Participants

Organizations face rising pressure to take action to reduce their climate-affecting emissions (i.e., decarbonize). While many responses are possible, an essential approach—strategically managing their energy consumption as an essential business practice via an ISO 50001-based energy management system—is not yet widely recognized as a framework for decarbonization. This study analyzes interim survey results from 24 organizations (a 48% response rate) implementing a rigorous energy management system, one deployed by the U.S. Department of Energy as “50001 Ready”, to test whether participating organizations perceive the energy management system under development as an essential aspect of their decarbonization efforts. The results are preliminary in nature, given the ongoing nature of the program and associated data collection; however, they are sufficient to refute our hypothesis that energy management systems are perceived by organizations participating in 50001 Ready cohorts to primarily affect energy performance with little-to-no connection regarding decarbonization efforts. Major findings include that participants’ decarbonization targets and commitments are driven by market imperatives (highlighting the importance of ISO 50001 as a management system tool) and that they see energy efficiency as vital to decarbonizing. We conclude by suggesting future research directions to further establish the premise that energy management systems are an effective, efficient, and long-lasting decarbonization strategy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrolytic Renewable Fuel Production Optimal Operation Investigation - H2@Scale: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-19-00818

This work explored the optimal design and operation of electrolytic hydrogen production from renewable power. While there are many financial incentives for renewable hydrogen, this work investigated the effects of Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) on the hydrogen breakeven cost. To this end, this project developed optimized operational strategies for electrolytic hydrogen facilities in the California. Four specific model projects were used as the basis for the analysis. Three model projects will be located in California and one in Texas or the Midwest to be determined during the project. All projects include interconnection to the natural gas grid as a method of transport for the product fuel and the hydrogen cases will also consider alternative modes of transport. The operational optimization will maximize project return through fuel production and grid services based on future scenarios for the value of each. The effort will rely on modeling tools developed by NREL and the UCI for grid modeling as well as the integrated resource planning tool (IRP), RESOLVE, which is the official IRP tool used by the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC). The development of this project can help to inform future hydrogen deployment, policy and regulation makers, research and development decisions, and private and public investment.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online evolutionary neural architecture search for multivariate non-stationary time series forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is one of the most important tasks in data science. TSF models are usually pre-trained with historical data and then applied on future unseen datapoints. However, real-world time series data is usually non-stationary and models trained offline usually face problems from data drift. Models trained and designed in an offline fashion can not quickly adapt to changes quickly or be deployed in real-time. To address these issues, this work presents the Online NeuroEvolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm, which is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Without any pre-training, ONE-NAS utilizes populations of RNNs that are continuously updated with new network structures and weights in response to new multivariate input data. ONE-NAS is tested on real-world, large-scale multivariate wind turbine data as well as the univariate Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dataset. These results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods, including online linear regression, fixed long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models trained online, as well as state-of-the-art, online ARIMA strategies. Additionally, results show that utilizing multiple populations of RNNs which are periodically repopulated provide significant performance improvements, allowing this online neural network architecture design and training to be successful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Potential to Improve the Value of U.S. Geothermal Electricity Generation Through Flexible Operations

Geothermal power plants have typically been operated as baseload plants. The recent expansion of wind and solar power generation creates a potential opportunity to increase the value of geothermal generation through flexible operations. In recent years, California’s wholesale electricity markets have exhibited frequent, short-term periods of negative pricing, indicating that additional flexibility would be valued in the market. Here, we examine local nodal hourly price records at all geothermal plants located in the western United States. We describe how the frequency and temporal characteristics of negative pricing episodes have changed over recent years. Based on these price series, we calculate the value of multiple strategies of flexible operations. Additionally, we use the estimates of future prices, developed through a capacity-expansion model and a dispatch model, to explore how the value of such flexible operations might change along with further penetration of variable renewable power sources. Based on the historical pricing records, we find that simple curtailment of operations during negative pricing episodes could increase the average energy value by 1–2 dollars per MWh and that allowing for increased production during limited high-priced hours, in addition to curtailment during negative priced hours, could potentially double the increase in value (up to 4 dollars per MWh). The forward-looking simulations indicate reduced values of flexibility from geothermal power despite higher penetrations of variable renewable energy. This result highlights the possibility that increasing flexibility options throughout the system may counteract the influence of increased variable renewable energy deployment.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale Hydrogen Storage – Risk Assessment Seattle City Light and Port of Seattle [Abstract]

This CRADA presents the strategy that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will take to support Seattle City Light (SCL), and the Port of Seattle (Port) in performing a risk assessment of large-scale hydrogen storage. Risk assessment is often used to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect workers and the public, the environment, infrastructure, and assets. A detailed risk assessment can also be used to direct funding and upgrades, to specific components and sub-systems in order to mitigate risks to the larger system. In this way risk assessments are often employed as a part of a larger risk management strategy, with the goal of minimizing the occurrence of hazards and to identify means to limit their consequences. Risk assessment is often used to engage and inform regulators, and to communicate how specific regulations are being met. However, it is important to note that the proposed work is not intended for SCL and the Port to use in order to gain regulatory acceptance for their proposed activities. The work performed as a part of this effort will be a preliminary risk assessment for early-stage component and system designs and should be considered research and development (R&D). As such, the proposed work will be performed to a quality level and design maturity consistent with R&D and is not considered appropriate for final safety analysis and regulatory compliance purposes. Previous and on-going work at SCL and the Port demonstrated the utility of deploying hydrogen systems at the Port. The deployment of hydrogen at the Port is a part of a larger vision of using hydrogen to address a range of issues for SCL and the Port. These include large-scale fueling of MD/HD vehicles, cargo-handling equipment (CHE), and harbor vessels to reduce emissions; support of adjacent LD vehicles; support of critical port operations during extreme events (i.e., resiliency); deferral of more capital- and time-intensive electrical distribution system upgrades while still supporting evolving port operations and decarbonization efforts; facilitating electrification by establishing energy storage as a grid resource, starting at strategic port locations; creation of a flexible market resource that can be used by SCL to generate revenue via arbitrage; support of planned future maritime operations that involve heavy use of hydrogen for ocean-going vessels; and future end-use applications involving natural gas pipeline hydrogen injection. Ultimately, the success of these activities is underpinned by the deployed storage capacity. Large-scale deployment of hydrogen systems will require hydrogen storage at a scale that has not been demonstrated. In addition, the ideal location for such multi-use systems is near the end user which will often necessitate deploying into urban and/or industrial areas. A detailed risk assessment using the Port as a test case is necessary to ensure the deployment of large-scale hydrogen is successful. Many technologies have been proposed for hydrogen storage; however, these technologies need to be analyzed as they apply to an actual site. The physical infrastructure and hydrogen use cases for the Port will be analyzed, and a risk assessment for compressed hydrogen, liquified hydrogen, and Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC) storage will be performed. These risk assessments will be useful for understanding how each of these technologies would perform in terms of facility and public safety. The operating states of the proposed hydrogen systems at the Port will be analyzed and incorporated into the storage risk assessment. Scalability will also be analyzed to understand how future port uses would affect the overall risk assessment. Finally, using the risk assessment as a tool to inform engagement and to gain stakeholder acceptance will be explored.

08 HYDROGEN↗