Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decision model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards developing multiscale-multiphysics models and their surrogates for digital twins of metal additive manufacturing

Artificial intelligence (AI) embedded within digital models of manufacturing processes can be used to improve process productivity and product quality significantly. The application of such advanced capabilities particularly to highly digitalized processes such as metal additive manufacturing (AM) is likely to make those processes commercially more attractive. AI capabilities will reside within Digital Twins (DTs) which are living virtual replicas of the physical processes. DTs will be empowered to operate autonomously in a diagnostic control capacity to supervise processes and can be interrogated by the practitioner to inform the optimal processing route for any given product. The utility of the information gained from the DTs would depend on the quality of the digital models and, more importantly, their faster-solving surrogates which dwell within DTs for consultation during rapid decision-making. In this article, we point out the exceptional value of DTs in AM and focus on the need to create high-fidelity multiscale-multiphysics models for AM processes to feed the AI capabilities. We identify technical hurdles for their development, including those arising from the multiscale and multiphysics characteristics of the models, the difficulties in linking models of the subprocesses across scales and physics, and the scarcity of experimental data. We discuss the need for creating surrogate models using machine learning approaches for real-time problem-solving. We further identify non-technical barriers, such as the need for standardization and difficulties in collaborating across different types of institutions. We offer potential solutions for all these challenges, after reflecting on and researching discussions held at an international symposium on the subject in 2019. Here, we argue that a collaborative approach can not only help accelerate their development compared with disparate efforts, but also enhance the quality of the models by allowing modular development and linkages that account for interactions between the various sub-processes in AM. A high-level roadmap is suggested for starting such a collaboration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗
DOE OSTI2021

Survey on stochastic distribution systems: A full probability density function control theory with potential applications

Complex systems seen either in general engineering practice or economics are subjected to ever increased uncertainties that are mostly represented as random variables or parameters, and the characteristics of random variables are represented by their probability density functions (PDFs). Controlling their PDFs means to shape their stochastic distributions and in general it would provide a full treatment for system analysis and operational control and optimization. This leads to the development of stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems theory in the past decades, where the original aim of the controller design is to realize a shape control of the distributions of certain random variables in their PDFs sense for some engineering processes. Indeed, once the PDFs of these random variables or parameters are used to describe their distribution characters, the control task is to obtain control signals so that the output PDFs of stochastic systems are made to follow their target PDFs. The subject of SDC was initially originated for non-Gaussian stochastic control systems design but has found a wide spectrum of applications in general systems in terms of data-driven modeling, analysis, signal processing (filtering), data mining via multivariable statistics, decision-making (optimization) for systems subjected to uncertainties and even in economics. In this context, SDC constitutes an effective primer tool for complex system analysis, control and operational optimizations. In this review paper, a detailed survey of the developments on the research of SDC systems will be made together with their wide spectrum applications and future perspectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Federated Deep Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized VVO of BTM DERs

The future of grid control requires a hybrid approach combining centralized and decentralized methods to fully utilize the potential of smart edge devices with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. This paper aims to develop and evaluate a federated deep reinforcement learning (FDRL) framework for decentralized adaptive volt-var optimization (VVO) of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs). First, this paper models a single deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent using the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework for decentralized adaptive VVO of BTM DERs. Two DRL algorithms, soft actor-critic (SAC) and twin-delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), are compared for their effectiveness in optimizing VVO. Results show that TD3 outperforms SAC, achieving a 71.3% improvement in mean reward. Finally, the DRL agent is deployed within the FDRL framework, using the Flower platform, to enhance learning, provide adaptive control, and ensure data privacy for BTM DERs.

Ravi, Abhijith↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Reconfigurable Neural Network ASIC for Detector Front-End Data Compression at the HL-LHC

Despite advances in the programmable logic capabilities of modern trigger systems, a significant bottleneck remains in the amount of data to be transported from the detector to off-detector logic where trigger decisions are made. We demonstrate that a neural network (NN) autoencoder model can be implemented in a radiation-tolerant application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) to perform lossy data compression alleviating the data transmission problem while preserving critical information of the detector energy profile. For our application, we consider the high-granularity calorimeter from the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The advantage of the machine learning approach is in the flexibility and configurability of the algorithm. By changing the NN weights, a unique data compression algorithm can be deployed for each sensor in different detector regions and changing detector or collider conditions. To meet area, performance, and power constraints, we perform quantization-aware training to create an optimized NN hardware implementation. The design is achieved through the use of high-level synthesis tools and the hls4ml framework and was processed through synthesis and physical layout flows based on a low-power (LP)-CMOS 65-nm technology node. The flow anticipates 200 Mrad of ionizing radiation to select gates and reports a total area of 3.6 mm 2 and consumes 95 mW of power. The simulated energy consumption per inference is 2.4 nJ. Furthermore, this is the first radiation-tolerant on-detector ASIC implementation of an NN that has been designed for particle physics applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Period Active Distribution Network Planning Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming and Nested Decomposition by SDDIP

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Two-Stage Reinforcement Learning Policy Search for Grid-Interactive Building Control

This paper develops an intelligent grid-interactive building controller, which optimizes building operation during both normal hours and demand response (DR) events. To avoid costly on-demand computation and to adapt to non-linear building models, the controller utilizes reinforcement learning (RL) and makes real-time decisions based on a near-optimal control policy. Learning such a policy typically amounts to solving a hard non-convex optimization problem. We propose to address this problem with a novel global-local policy search method. In the first stage, an RL algorithm based on zero-order gradient estimation is leveraged to search for the optimal policy globally, due to its scalability and the potential to escape some poor performing local optima. The obtained policy is then fine-tuned locally to bring the first-stage solution closer to that of the original unsmoothed problem. Experiments on a simulated five-zone commercial building demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over existing learning approaches. They also show that the learned control policy outperforms a pragmatic linear model predictive controller (MPC) and approaches the performance of an oracle MPC in testing scenarios. Using a state-of-the-art advanced computing system, we demonstrate that the controller can be learned and deployed within hours of training.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Use Case-Informed Framework for Utility Cloud Migration

This white paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing utilities’ cloud postures and frameworks. It aims to produce a roadmap and strategy for a cloud-enabled grid future, providing guidance for integrators, asset owners, and operators. Instead of offering a yes or no answer for cloud implementation, this framework offers strategic guidance on responsibly preparing for and deploying cloud solutions. This paper delves into cloud-service models pertinent to the electric sector, dissecting the shared responsibility model and elucidating what on-premise infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), and software as a service (SaaS) entail. A pivotal consideration within the context of the shared responsibility model is the allocation of responsibility for foundational security aspects—a decision that will be informed by a comprehensive risk assessment. The ensuing discussion will present a checklist of certifications necessary for a secure cloud transition, equipping utilities with the knowledge to navigate this digital transformation with confidence and with a strategic roadmap. Furthermore, the paper outlines gaps in understanding the U.S. government’s role in shaping technology development and responsible use. Its purpose is to aid decision-making by offering support for risk-informed solutions that benefit those managing assets and operating in the cloud environment. The primary objective is to enhance the resilience and future readiness of a decarbonized electric grid, with cloud solutions as one viable option. The paper synthesizes information on current and future grid architectures and applications, considering both conservative and progressive energy transitions, along with scalable and distributed computing considerations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Operation of Solid-Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems Considering Synergistic Chemical and Physical Degradation

This poster summarizes work on synergistic degradation of Solid-Oxide Cells under physical and chemical degradation. We present operational insights that extend the useful life of SOCs while maintaining high efficiencies and economic viability. We also provide insights on how often the SOC must be replaced to ensure the reliability of the process. All these decisions are made through a dynamic optimization framework that utilizes new models for degradation that were developed as a part of the IDAES project.

Giridhar, Nishant↗
DOE OSTI2025

Motion Dynamics of Motile Microbes in Pore-Networks and its Implications for Reactive Transport Processes

This report outlines new methods to improve simulations of microbial transport and microbially mediated reactions in porous media. A range of experimental, modeling, and machine learning tools are introduced to make these simulations faster, more reliable, and useful for real-world applications. At the microscopic level, the study investigates how different types of bacteria move through confined spaces. A new artificial intelligence tool called DeepTrackStat, is introduced to track motions dynamics as observed in videos of particles migrating through pore networks. This tool is especially helpful for studying fast-moving microbes and requires less computing power than traditional tracking methods. At larger scales, the research looks at how microbes and chemicals interact in zones where surface water and groundwater meet. To connect the small- and large-scale findings, the study presents a neural network model called STAMNet. This tool helps scale up detailed small-scale microbial motion behaviors to predict large-scale environmental changes more efficiently. By combining lab experiments, computer models, and artificial intelligence, the research presented supports smarter environmental decision-making, especially in bioremediation of contaminated groundwater and protection of water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

ARM FY2026 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility maintains a suite of advanced atmospheric radar systems that serve as critical tools in ARM’s mission to provide continuous, high-quality observations for advancing the understanding and modeling of atmospheric processes. These radar systems enable detailed characterization of clouds, precipitation, and dynamic structures in the atmosphere, supporting a broad range of scientific applications. The number of deployed systems exceeds what current staffing levels can fully support for continuous 24/7/365 operation. As such, it is essential to have a clearly defined and community-informed plan that prioritizes radar operations and communicates ARM’s strategy for sustaining and evolving these observational assets. This FY2026 Radar Plan outlines ARM’s approach to managing its radar portfolio—balancing scientific impact, operational feasibility, and long-term sustainability. It reflects ARM’s continued commitment to delivering calibrated, well-documented radar data products that enable process-level studies and support the development and evaluation of weather and climate models. Through this plan, ARM aims to ensure transparency in decision-making, alignment with user needs, and support for innovative science across the facility’s fixed and mobile observatories. Given uncertainties around the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 budget, this plan was developed to assume business as usual and will be updated as budgets and plans may change. It should be noted that, given the limited timeframe involved, this plan will be more succinct than previous plans.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Fusion of Geothermal and InSAR Data with Machine Learning for Enhanced Deformation Forecasting at the Geysers

The Geysers geothermal field in California is experiencing land subsidence due to the seismic and geothermal activities taking place. This poses a risk not only to the underlying infrastructure but also to the groundwater level which would reduce the water availability for the local community. Because of this, it is crucial to monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring and adjust geothermal operations accordingly. In this study, we examine the correlation between the geothermal injection and production rates as well as the seismic activity in the area, and we show the high correlation between the injection rate and the number of earthquakes. This motivates the use of this data in a machine learning model that would predict future deformation maps. First, we build a model that uses interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images that have been processed and turned into a deformation time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package, and evaluate the performance against a linear baseline model. The model includes both convolutional neural network (CNN) layers as well as long short-term memory (LSTM) layers and is able to improve upon the baseline model based on a mean squared error metric. Then, after getting preprocessed, we incorporate the geothermal data by adding them as additional inputs to the model. This new model was able to outperform both the baseline and the previous version of the model that uses only InSAR data, motivating the use of machine learning models as well as geothermal data in assessing and predicting future deformation at The Geysers as part of hazard mitigation models which would then be used as fundamental tools for informed decision making when it comes to adjusting geothermal operations.

Yazbeck, Joe (ORCID:0000000302235260)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing the Payback and Profitability for Automated Heavy Duty Vehicle Platooning

Heavy duty vehicle platooning under highway operating conditions has been projected to provide significant fuel economy gains based on aerodynamic drag improvements of the platooning vehicles. Realizing these benefits and the economic viability under real-world operating conditions presents several challenges. The objective of this paper (the third as part of a series) is to analytically quantify the payback and profitability of heavy-duty vehicles platooning across the U.S. Interstate highway system. In this paper, a rigorous assessment of several factors that influence the platooning system payback for an end-user as well as the revenue potential for suppliers who may be utilizing an equipment lease model dependent on end-user savings, is presented. In this assessment key interactions explored include market adoption rates, platooning velocities, platoon-able daily mileage, platooning likelihood, variations in baseline powertrain fuel economy (diesel or electric), price of fuel (diesel or electricity), platooning fuel economy benefits, price of the added technology, and the impact of natural platooning due to traffic interactions. Further, the paper explores the economic impact of higher levels of vehicle automation for the trailing vehicles in the platoon, where extending the driver Hours of Service (HoS) may provide additional financial benefits. While the approach makes use of a limited fidelity vehicle analytical model for longitudinal dynamics and operations economics, the narrative provides application decision personnel with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architectural selection process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Community Energy Operations and Planning System: Concept, Use cases, Metrics, and Benefits

Community and city leaders are interested in achieving sustainability goals, providing resilient energy infrastructure, and improving economic competitiveness. Community-level data acquisition and analysis can provide energy and associated benefits that are not possible at the single building level. However, there is a lack of organizational structure, common semantic data models, interoperable systems, and methods to support data-driven decision-making for community-scale energy supply and demand systems. We explored the need and opportunity for a Community Energy Operations and Planning System (Community EOPS), a potential data exchange platform. We conducted “customer discovery” interviews, and reviewed literature, public tools, and technology platforms to identify key energy data “users” and use cases in communities. The key users of the Community EOPS could be developers of mixed-use districts, corporate, defense and university campus energy managers, and city managers of cities that own their energy utility. The value could be for community planning and reporting (for energy data-integrated land use planning and community infrastructure investments in microgrids, storage, district heating and cooling), energy efficiency (leveraging optimizations for community scale energy supply and demand), flexible load management (grid-edge load management to offset, shift, and flatten loads for multiple buildings and EV fleets), cost savings and revenue generation (participating in grid services), and social benefits such as energy resilience, equity, and awareness. We developed a conceptual Community EOPS architecture with recommendations for streamlined and prioritized data acquisition, sharing, and integration driven by prioritized use cases, common metrics, and actionable visualizations that can provide value to a community’s users.

Singh, Reshma↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗