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At least 883 records · Page 49

A review of thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of coupled processes in fractured rock: From continuum to discontinuum perspective

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications. Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling. This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions. By comparing various models, one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions, particularly those related to the conceptual models. The review explores how these methodologies have significantly enhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production, and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience. The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specific conditions of applications. The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties, nonlinear THM coupled processes, scale dependence, and computational limitations in representing field scale fractures are discussed. Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization, mathematical modeling, selection of numerical solution strategies, implementation, and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflect the nuanced complexities of geological phenomena. Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical field of study.

Coupling scheme↗

Universal free-energy landscape produces efficient and reversible electron bifurcation

For decades, it was unknown how electron-bifurcating systems in nature prevented energy-wasting short-circuiting reactions that have large driving forces, so synthetic electron-bifurcating molecular machines could not be designed and built. The underpinning free-energy landscapes for electron bifurcation were also enigmatic. We predict that a simple and universal free-energy landscape enables electron bifurcation, and we show that it enables high-efficiency bifurcation with limited short-circuiting (the EB scheme). The landscape relies on steep free-energy slopes in the two redox branches to insulate against short-circuiting using an electron occupancy blockade effect, without relying on nuanced changes in the microscopic rate constants for the short-circuiting reactions. The EB scheme thus unifies a body of observations on biological catalysis and energy conversion, and the scheme provides a blueprint to guide future campaigns to establish synthetic electron bifurcation machines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hybrid (PDE+ML) models in the context of land ice modeling

Focal Area(s): Primary focal areas are: predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; advanced methods including network design/optimization/deep learning. Science Challenge: The atmospheric, ocean and ice dynamics components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are governed by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and significant efforts have been made during the last decades to develop such computational models. Here we propose to fundamentally improve these PDE-based codes by enhancing them with Machine Learning (ML) sub-models for complex, poorly understood physical processes in the context of ice sheet modeling. We propose to train these models with a novel approach that allows the assimilation of the different sources of data available (direct/indirect observations and possibly simulation data), improving on existing simplified models. We also highlight computational challenges originating from the coexistence of PDE-based and ML-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Diabatic Heating and the Role of Convective Processes as Represented in Several Contemporary Climate Models

One of the most fundamental properties of the global heat balance is the net heat input into the tropical atmosphere that helps drive the planetary atmospheric circulation. Although broadly understood in terms of its gross structure and balance of source / sink terms, incorporation of the relevant processes in predictive models is still rather poor. The work reported here examines the tropical radiative and water cycle behavior as produced by four contemporary climate models. Among these are the NSIPP-2 (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) which uses the RAS convective parameterization; the FVCCM, a code using finite volume numerics and the CCM3.6 physics; FVCCM-MCRAS again having the finite volume numerics, but MCRAS convective parameterization and a different radiation treatment; and, finally, the NCEP GSM which uses the RAS. Using multi-decadal integrations with specified SSTs we examine the statistics of radiative / convective processes and associated energy transports, and then estimate model energy flux sensitivities to SST changes. In particular the behavior of the convective parameterizations is investigated. Additional model integrations are performed specifically to assess the importance representing convective inhibition in regulating convective cloud-top structure and moisture detrainment as well as controlling surface energy fluxes. To evaluate the results of these experiments, a number of satellite retrievals are used: TRMM retrievals of vertical reflectivity structure, rainfall rate, and inferred diabatic heating are analyzed to show both seasonal and interannual variations in vertical structure of latent heat release. Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from ERBS and CERES are used to examine shortwave and longwave cloud forcing and to deduce required seasonal energy transports. Retrievals of cloud properties from ISCCP and water vapor variations from SSM/T-2 are also used to understand behavior of the humidity fields. These observations are supplemented with output form the DOE Reanalysis-2.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

ICAN Computer Code Adapted for Building Materials

The NASA Lewis Research Center has been involved in developing composite micromechanics and macromechanics theories over the last three decades. These activities have resulted in several composite mechanics theories and structural analysis codes whose applications range from material behavior design and analysis to structural component response. One of these computer codes, the Integrated Composite Analyzer (ICAN), is designed primarily to address issues related to designing polymer matrix composites and predicting their properties - including hygral, thermal, and mechanical load effects. Recently, under a cost-sharing cooperative agreement with a Fortune 500 corporation, Master Builders Inc., ICAN was adapted to analyze building materials. The high costs and technical difficulties involved with the fabrication of continuous-fiber-reinforced composites sometimes limit their use. Particulate-reinforced composites can be thought of as a viable alternative. They are as easily processed to near-net shape as monolithic materials, yet have the improved stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness that is characteristic of continuous-fiber-reinforced composites. For example, particlereinforced metal-matrix composites show great potential for a variety of automotive applications, such as disk brake rotors, connecting rods, cylinder liners, and other hightemperature applications. Building materials, such as concrete, can be thought of as one of the oldest materials in this category of multiphase, particle-reinforced materials. The adaptation of ICAN to analyze particle-reinforced composite materials involved the development of new micromechanics-based theories. A derivative of the ICAN code, ICAN/PART, was developed and delivered to Master Builders Inc. as a part of the cooperative activity.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

Survey of current situation in radiation belt modeling

The study of Earth's radiation belts is one of the oldest subjects in space physics. Despite the tremendous progress made in the last four decades, we still lack a complete understanding of the radiation belts in terms of their configurations, dynamics, and detailed physical accounts of their sources and sinks. The static nature of early empirical trapped radiation models, for examples, the NASA AP-8 and AE-8 models, renders those models inappropriate for predicting short-term radiation belt behaviors associated with geomagnetic storms and substorms. Due to incomplete data coverage, these models are also inaccurate at low altitudes (e.g., <1000 km) where many robotic and human space flights occur. The availability of radiation data from modern space missions and advancement in physical modeling and data management techniques have now allowed the development of new empirical and physical radiation belt models. In this paper, we will review the status of modern radiation belt modeling. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Protons↗

Dynamic/Jitter Assessment of Multiple Potential HabEx Structural Designs

The 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics will assess candidate large missions to follow James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Wide Field Infrared Space Telescope (WFIRST). One candidate mission is the Habitable ExoPlanet Imaging Mission (HabEx). This presentation describes two HabEx structural designs and results from structural dynamic analyses performed to predict Primary Mirror (PM) Secondary Mirror (SM) Line of Site (LOS) stability (jitter) due to Reaction Wheel Assembly (RWA) vibrations.

Space Mirror Technology↗

Initial Jitter Analysis of Lynx, a Proposed Future Large Astrophysics Facility

Lynx is an X-Ray telescope large-mission concept for consideration in NASA's 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. A conceptual structural design is evolving that leverages the success and lessons learned from Chandra and that takes into account unique needs of Lynx. Space optics systems require extreme stability. Any motion in-service (thermal effects, structural dynamics, etc.) impacts performance. An initial analysis was performed to predict the first-cut dynamic responses, jitter, at two selected points on the Lynx observatory. One point is on the Lynx X-ray Mirror Assembly (LMA) and the other, on the focal plane Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM). Relative motion between these two points was predicted along with vibration spectra. This information will be used in upcoming analyses of the LMA and the ISIM.

Knight, J. Brent↗

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur

The profound changes in global SO[subscript 2] emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Aas, Wenche↗

Transforming Science Prioritization Processes Using Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have potential to augment significantly the current labor-intensive processes of science prioritization, specifically by the National Academies’ Decadal Survey on behalf of NASA and NSF. Here we summarize what we believe to be the first exploratory demonstration-of-concept results from an application of AI/ML to Survey science prioritization. Specifically, we applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) to reveal trends in published astrophysics research that may indicate science priorities and which could be applied to strategic planning. For the purpose of the work that we summarize here, AI/ML is able to analyze – that is, to “understand,” in a manner of speaking – a vast amount of text to reveal complex relationships among research topics, including the growth or decline of science community activities in those topics over time. We trained ourselves and AI/ML algorithms by using ~400,000 abstracts in the period 1998 to 2010 to “forecast” the Academies’ Astro2010 recommendations and compare with the solicited white papers. Comparing our results with actual Astro2010 recommendations allowed us to identify candidate metrics that better predicted the actual results of the Survey. We found, for example, that Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of papers published in a topic area is a good proxy measure for importance of this topic area of research. With this training complete, we identified candidate astrophysics astrophysics science priorities for the 2021+ period using the research during 2007 - 2019 . We conclude that appropriate application of AI can potentially significantly reduce the current workload of the Decadal Survey processes and reveal otherwise unrecognized characteristics in the body of astronomical research. We emphasize throughout the exploratory nature of our work, encouraging colleagues to pursue promising results further. Our most critical governing assumption was that increased (or decreased) research activity can be used to identify scientific or technology topic areas worthy of increased (or decreased) future emphasis. We discuss advantages, limitations, and recognize the “black box” nature of our technique. We note ethics issues associated, for example, with using AI/ML to reveal “hidden” meanings and biases in published work. Furthermore, inevitable improvements in AI may soon enable widespread and welcome identification of and advocacy for science and technology priorities by disparate and diverse groups and organizations. Consequently, we continue to urge a near-term, in-depth evaluation of appropriate applications of AI, including implications and consequences, as well as support for multiple follow-on assessments, of which ours is only a beginning.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Post-irradiation examination of legacy high burnup fuel to support safety testing

Safety/transient testing to evaluate performance under off-normal conditions is an essential pillar for both the development of Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) and the optimization of fuel operation economics beyond current discharge burnups. Among other factors, the successful interpretation of the transient testing results relies upon the knowledge of the initial conditions of the test, including the characteristics of the fuel system under scrutiny. When testing pre-irradiated material, the assumptions that the fuel and the cladding still have the same properties as in the pre-irradiation stage is obviously wrong and could affect the results of the test. This is particularly true the more burnup accumulates in the fuel rod and irradiation progresses. The knowledge of the initial microstructure of both fuel and cladding allows a clearer interpretation of the subsequent transient testing results, provides validation of the physical phenomena underlying the model predictions and eliminates the uncertainties related to the limited knowledge of the sample status before the test. One example is the phenomenon of fine fragmentation that occurs in Light Water reactor (LWR) fuel. During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) or Reactivity Initiated Transient (RIA) the fuel can severely fragment. During LOCA, high burnup fuel tend to finely fragment, which has raised safety concerns due to the increased likelihood of dispersal of such small particles once the cladding has burst and due to the increased fission gas release. Therefore, efforts have been devoted to the assessment of a pulverization threshold that could determine the conditions under which fine fragmentation is predominant. However, the lack of information regarding the initial conditions of the fuel, and the connections between those conditions and the pre-transient irradiation history, have hindered the development of a fully mechanistic fragmentation and pulverization criterion. The empirical relationships rely on conservative estimations, due to the lack of information on critical material properties and characteristics. More generally, experimental evidence of the irradiation-induced modifications at microstructural scale are necessary to determine the behavior of the material at the macroscopic scale, with the latter being the one of technological interest. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in the developments of analytical materials science techniques that can be applied to highly radioactive materials, such as high burnup fuels. The availability of new techniques and the improvement of existing ones has enabled investigations previously not possible that can deepen the understanding of the fuel characteristics and properties at high burnup. The better knowledge of material behavior and irradiation-induced phenomena could help the prediction of its performance. In this context, the scope of the present work is to apply a wide portfolio of advanced characterization techniques to determine properties that are relevant for safety and performance. The results are interpreted in the context of engineering scale post-irradiation examinations and available information on the irradiation conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Recent California tree mortality portends future increase in drought-driven forest die-off

Vegetation tolerance to drought depends on an array of site-specific environmental and plant physiological factors. This tolerance is poorly understood for many forest types despite its importance for predicting and managing vegetation stress. We analyzed the relationships between precipitation variability and forest die-off in California's Sierra Nevada and introduce a new measure of drought tolerance that emphasizes plant access to subsurface moisture buffers. We applied this metric to California's severe 2012-2015 drought, and show that it predicted the patterns of tree mortality. We then examined future climate scenarios, and found that the probability of droughts that lead to widespread die-off increases threefold by the end of the 21st century. Our analysis shows that tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada will likely accelerate in the coming decades and that forests in the Central and Northern Sierra Nevada that largely escaped mortality in 2012-2015 are vulnerable to die-off.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of particulate thermophoresis in reducing the fouling rate advantages of effusion-cooling

To predict small-particle diffusional mass transfer (deposition), including particle thermophoresis, transpiration cooling, and variable properties, the coupled ordinary differential equations governing self-similar laminar boundary layers are solved numerically. Under typical combustion turbine conditions, although diffusional deposition rates can be dramatically reduced by transpiration cooling (e.g., by some 5-decades for mainstream submicron particles corresponding to a Schmidt number of about 100 and a wall transpiration-cooled to Tw/Te = 0.8), actual deposition rate reductions will be smaller than previously expected (by about 1 decade for particles with Sc of about 100), owing to thermophoretic particle drift caused by the colder wall. Such microdroplets, small enough to behave like heavy molecules in combustion systems, are often important because they can cause adherence of the much larger ash particles which inertially impact on the same surface.

Gokoglu, S. A.↗

A New Method for Accurate Treatment of Flow Equations in Cylindrical Coordinates Using Series Expansions

The motivation of this work is the ongoing effort at the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) to use large eddy simulation (LES) techniques to calculate the noise radiated by jet engines. The focus on engine exhaust noise reduction is motivated by the fact that a significant reduction has been achieved over the last decade on the other main sources of acoustic emissions of jet engines, such as the fan and turbomachinery noise, which gives increased priority to jet noise. To be able to propose methods to reduce the jet noise based on results of numerical simulations, one first has to be able to accurately predict the spatio-temporal distribution of the noise sources in the jet. Though a great deal of understanding of the fundamental turbulence mechanisms in high-speed jets was obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) at low Reynolds numbers, LES seems to be the only realistic available tool to obtain the necessary near-field information that is required to estimate the acoustic radiation of the turbulent compressible engine exhaust jets. The quality of jet-noise predictions is determined by the accuracy of the numerical method that has to capture the wide range of pressure fluctuations associated with the turbulence in the jet and with the resulting radiated noise, and by the boundary condition treatment and the quality of the mesh. Higher Reynolds numbers and coarser grids put in turn a higher burden on the robustness and accuracy of the numerical method used in this kind of jet LES simulations. As these calculations are often done in cylindrical coordinates, one of the most important requirements for the numerical method is to provide a flow solution that is not contaminated by numerical artifacts. The coordinate singularity is known to be a source of such artifacts. In the present work we use 6th order Pade schemes in the non-periodic directions to discretize the full compressible flow equations. It turns out that the quality of jet-noise predictions using these schemes is especially sensitive to the type of equation treatment at the singularity axis. The objective of this work is to develop a generally applicable numerical method for treating the singularities present at the polar axis, which is particularly suitable for highly accurate finite-differences schemes (e.g., Pade schemes) on non-staggered grids. The main idea is to reinterpret the regularity conditions developed in the context of pseudo-spectral methods. A set of exact equations at the singularity axis is derived using the appropriate series expansions for the variables in the original set of equations. The present treatment of the equations preserves the same level of accuracy as for the interior scheme. We also want to point out the wider utility of the method, proposed here in the context of compressible flow equations, as its extension for incompressible flows or for any other set of equations that are solved on a non-staggered mesh in cylindrical coordinates with finite-differences schemes of various level of accuracy is straightforward. The robustness and accuracy of the proposed technique is assessed by comparing results from simulations of laminar forced-jets and turbulent compressible jets using LES with similar calculations in which the equations are solved in Cartesian coordinates at the polar axis, or in which the singularity is removed by employing a staggered mesh in the radial direction without a mesh point at r = 0.

Constantinescu, G.S.↗

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud resolving models (CRMs), which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that CRMs agree with observations in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and regional scale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a szrper-parameterization or multi-scale modeling -framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign can provide initial conditions as well as validation through utilizing the Earth Satellite simulators. At Goddard, we have developed a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics. The modeling system consists a coupled GCM-CRM (or MMF); a state-of-the-art weather research forecast model (WRF) and a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model). In these models, the same microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 3ICE), radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models are applied. In addition, a comprehensive unified Earth Satellite simulator has been developed at GSFC, which is designed to fully utilize the multi-scale modeling system. A brief review of the multi-scale modeling system with unified physics/simulator and examples is presented in this article.

Tao, W.K.↗

Exploring the Predictability of the High-Energy Tail of MEE Precipitation Based on Solar Wind Properties

Medium Energy Electron (MEE) precipitation (≳30 keV) ionizes the mesosphere and initiates chemical reactions, which ultimately can reduce mesospheric and stratospheric ozone. Currently, there are considerable differences in how existing parameterizations represent flux response, timing, and duration of MEE precipitation, especially considering its high-energy tail (≳300 keV). This study compares the nature of ≳300 to ≳30 keV electron fluxes to better understand differences within MEE precipitation. The MEE fluxes are estimated from measurements by the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED) onboard the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) from 2004 to 2014. The fluxes are explored in the context of solar wind drivers: corotating high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) alongside their associated solar wind properties. Three key aspects of ≳300 keV electron fluxes are investigated: maximum response, peak timing, and duration. The results reveal a structure-dependent correlation (0.89) between the peak fluxes of ≳30 and ≳300 keV electrons. The epsilon coupling function correlates well (0.84) with the ≳300 keV peak flux, independent of solar wind structure. The ≳300 keV flux peaks 0–3 days after the ≳30 keV flux peaks. The highest probability (∼42%) occurs for a 1-day delay, while predictive capabilities increase when accounting for solar wind speed. The ≳300 keV flux response has the highest probability of lasting 4 days for both CMEs and HSSs. The results form a base for a stochastic MEE parameterization that goes beyond the average picture, enabling realistic flux variability on both daily and decadal scales.

J A Salice↗

Habitable Exoplanet Imager: Optical Telescope Structural Design and Performance Prediction

Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) is a concept for a mission to directly image and characterize planetary systems around Sun-like stars. In addition to the search for life on Earth-like exoplanets, HabExwill enable a broad range of general astrophysics science enabled by 100 to 2500 nm spectral range and 3 x 3 arc-minute FOV. HabExis one of four mission concepts currently being studied for the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey.

Space Mirror Technolog↗

Enhanced mobility of dislocation network nodes and its effect on dislocation multiplication and strain hardening

Understanding plastic deformation of crystals in terms of the fundamental physics of dislocations has remained a grand challenge in materials science for decades. To overcome this, the Discrete Dislocation Dynamics (DDD) method has been developed, but its lack of atomistic resolution leaves open the possibility that certain key mechanisms may be overlooked. Here, by comparing large-scale Molecular Dynamics (MD) with DDD simulations performed under identical conditions we uncover significant discrepancies in the predicted strength and microstructure evolution in BCC crystals under high-strain rate conditions. These are traced to unexpected behaviors of dislocation network nodes forming at dislocation intersections, that can move in ways not previously anticipated as revealed by MD. Once these newfound freedoms of nodal motion are incorporated, DDD simulations begin to closely match plastic evolution observed in MD. This additional mechanism of motion whereby non-screw dislocations can change their glide plane profoundly affects fundamental processes of dislocation multiplication, recovery and storage that define strength of metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗