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NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Anthropogenic Land Use and Land Cover Change on Regional Climate Extremes

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land useland cover change (LULCC) on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics.

Near-surface↗

NASA NTRS2016

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

risk↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Power of Pausing: Advancing Understanding of Thermalization in Experimental Quantum Annealers

We investigate alternative annealing schedules on the current generation of quantum annealing hardware (the D-Wave 2000Q), which includes the use of forward and reverse annealing with an- intermediate pause. This work provides new insights into the inner workings of these devices (and quantum devices in general), particular into how thermal effects govern the system dynamics. We show that a pause mid-way through the anneal can cause a dramatic change in the output distribution, and we provide evidence suggesting thermalization is indeed occurring during such a pause. We demonstrate that upon pausing the system in a narrow region shortly after the minimum gap, the probability of successfully finding the ground state of the problem Hamiltonian can be increased by several orders of magnitude. We relate this effect to relaxation (i.e. thermalization) after diabatic and thermal excitations that occur in the region near to the minimum gap. For a set of large-scale problems of up to 500 qubits, we demonstrate that the distribution returned from the annealer very closely matches a (classical) Boltzmann distribution of the problem Hamiltonian, albeit one with a temperature at least 1.5 times higher than the (effective) temperature of the device. Moreover, we show that larger problems are more likely to thermalize to a classical Boltzmann distribution.

Marshall, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS2016

Radiation Tolerance Studies of Long Wavelength Infrared InAs/GaSb Detectors

In this work we investigated the effect of proton irradiation on the performance of long wavelength infrared (LWIR) InAs/GaSb photodiodes (λ(sub c) = 10.2µm) based on the complementary barrier infrared detector (CBIRD) design. We found that irradiation with 68MeV protons up to the total ionizing dose TID = 200 kRad results in only small (about 15%) decrease of the Quantum Efficiency and does not increase the operational bias of the photodiodes. However, the irradiation causes a significant increase of the dark current from j(sub d) = 5x10(exp -5) A/sq cm at V(sub b) = 0.1V and T = 80K to j(sub d) = 6x10(exp -3) A/sq cm at TID = 200 kRad. This change in the dark current mechanism can be attributed to the onset of surface leakage current, generated by the trap assisted tunneling processes in the proton displacement damage areas near the device sidewalls.

InAs/GaSb photodiodes↗

NASA NTRS2019

Transfer-Function Determination for Infinite-Tube-Probe Pressure Transducers with Application to Turbofan Core/Combustor Noise

Turbofan hot-section unsteady pressure measurements are complicated by environmental limitations of current-generation sensors. Accurate direct measurements are normally not possible and engine-external measurement techniques, using sufficiently long sense lines, are utilized instead. Remote measurement comes at a cost, however, as it introduces a magnitude reduction within the line as well as a phase lag relative to the desired engine-internal measurement location. Determination, or validation, of a transfer function relating the engine internal pressure to the observed remote value is necessary. Transfer functions are examined for various configurations of the so-called infinite-tube-probe arrangement in order to optimize measurement performance. The experimental setup uses a normal-incidence tube that ordinarily is utilized for impedance eduction. Here, its downstream end instead is made up of a hard-wall termination instrumented with a flush-mounted microphone and a Kulite pressure transducer as well as a sense line connection. This allows the remote and direct measurements to be related under controlled conditions. Transfer-function measurements are presented and compared to predictions for several parametric variations.

Combustor Noise↗

NASA NTRS2019

Transfer-Function Determination for Infinite-Tube-Probe Pressure Transducers with Application to Turbofan Core/Combuster Noise

Turbomachinery Noise↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Lunabotics Robotic Mining Competition 10th Anniversary (2010-2019): Taxonomy and Technology Review

Space Mining for resources such as water ice, and regolith, which contain many elements in the form of metals, minerals, volatiles and other compounds, is a necessary step for In-Situ Space Resource Utilization (ISRU). One of the primary goals is to extract propellants from the regolith and water ice, such as oxygen and hydrogen which could then be used for in-space transportation. In addition, the space mining system can be used for various construction tasks that can benefit human and robotic exploration as well as scientific investigations based on excavated exposed topography, such as the side walls of trenches. The National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) "Lunabotics" Robotic Mining Competition (RMC) is a university-level competition designed to engage and retain students in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). NASA has directly benefited from the competition by encouraging the development of innovative lunar excavation concepts from universities which has resulted in clever ideas and solutions which could be applied to an actual lunar excavation device or payload. The challenge is for students to design and build a remote controlled or autonomous excavator, called a "lunabot", which can collect and deposit a minimum of 10 kilograms of lunar simulant within 15 minutes. In recent years the goal has been changed to excavate a minimum of 1 kg of simulated icy regolith which is found under an overburden of regolith simulant. The complexities of the challenge include the abrasive characteristics of the lunar regolith simulant, the weight and size limitations of the lunabot, and the ability to control the lunabot from a remote-control center or operate it autonomously. This paper will present the results of the ten Lunabotics Robotic Mining Competitions held between May 2010 and May 2019. Each year over 50 university teams have attended, resulting in over 500 lunabot designs and subsequent prototypes. Over 6,000 university students have been part of the on-site competition at KSC. Even more students and the public were engaged via internet broadcasting and social networking media. The various designs have been cataloged and categorized here to provide information to future Lunabotics RMC mining robot designers and competitors. Categories will focus on both the mechanical design as well as the autonomy architecture/design. It is also expected to be of value for actual future space missions, as knowledge is gained from testing many innovative prototypes in simulated lunar regolith. A taxonomy of robotic excavator designs has been presented. In addition, the paper will discuss changes in learning paradigms occurring in the current generation of students, and how this competition leverages those changes to challenge students to develop skills in graduate level concepts and apply them. Examples of how this translates to hiring opportunities for commercial sponsors has also been discussed.

Robert P Mueller↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

4-Bed CO2 Scrubber – From Design to Build

Four-bed technology is an International Space Station (ISS) mainstay for metabolic Carbon Dioxide (CO2) removal and crew life support. The current generation is known as the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) and has a long history of unplanned maintenance as well as obsolete core components. The 4-bed CO2 Scrubber was commissioned to operate with no unplanned maintenance for 3 years while removing 4 crew-equivalents of CO2 at a target inlet concentration of 2 torr CO2. This work goes into detail of the various design aspects that have been undertaken to ensure a successful project design and successful build leading to an upcoming flight. This work will discuss the compromises caught both early and late in the design cycle and the adaptations in response. Finally, the expected performance of the system once launched will be discussed based on summaries of data from the testbed.

Carbon Dioxide↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Temporal Interpolation of Geostationary Satellite Imagery with Task Specific Optical Flow

Applications of satellite data in areas such as weather tracking and modeling, ecosystem monitoring, wildfire detection, and land-cover change are heavily dependent on the trade-offs to spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of observations. In weather tracking, high-frequency temporal observations are critical and used to improve forecasts, study severe events, and extract atmospheric motion, among others. However, while the current generation of geostationary satellites have hemispheric coverage at 10-15 minute intervals, higher temporal frequency observations are ideal for studying mesoscale severe weather events. In this work, we apply a task specific optical flow approach to temporal up-sampling using deep convolutional neural networks. We apply this technique to 16-bands of GOES-R/Advanced Baseline Imager mesoscale dataset to temporally enhance full disk hemispheric snapshots of different spatial resolutions from 15 minutes to 1 minute. Experiments show the effectiveness of task specific optical flow and multi-scale blocks for interpolating high-frequency severe weather events relative to bilinear and global optical flow baselines. Lastly, we demonstrate strong performance in capturing variability during convective precipitation events.

Optical flow, temporal interpolation, geostationar↗

NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer Simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1‐150 underestimate those from SOM (‐8% ± 13%) and long (‐14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21‐150 improved agreement with SOM (‐2% ± 14%) and long (‐8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51‐150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (‐4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1‐150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

Climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS2021

The MJO-QBO Relationship in a GCM with Stratospheric Nudging

Observational studies show a strong connection between the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the boreal winter MJO is stronger, more predictable, and has different teleconnections when the QBO in the lower stratosphere is easterly versus westerly. Despite the strength of the observed connection, global climate models do not produce an MJO-QBO link. Here the authors use a current-generation ocean-atmosphere coupled NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (Model E2.1) to examine the MJO-QBO link. To represent the QBO with minimal bias, the model zonal mean stratospheric zonal and meridional winds are relaxed to reanalysis fields from 1980-2017. The model troposphere, including the MJO, is allowed to freely evolve. The model with stratospheric nudging captures QBO signals well, including QBO temperature anomalies. However, an ensemble of nudged simulations still lacks an MJO-QBO connection.

Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)↗

NASA NTRS2021

Challenges in predicting Greenland supraglacial lake drainages at the regional scale

A leading hypothesis for the mechanism of fast supraglacial lake drainages is that transient extensional stresses briefly allow crevassing in otherwise compressional ice flow regimes. Lake water can then hydrofracture a crevasse to the base of the ice sheet, and river inputs can maintain this connection as a moulin. If future ice sheet models are to accurately represent moulins, we must understand their formation processes, timescales, and locations. Here, we use remote-sensing velocity products to constrain the relationship between strain rates and lake drainages across ∼ 1600 ksq.m in Pâkitsoq, western Greenland, between 2002–2019. We find significantly more extensional background strain rates at moulins associated with fast-draining lakes than at slow-draining or non-draining lake moulins. We test whether moulins in more extensional background settings drain their lakes earlier, but we find insignificant correlation. To investigate the frequency at which strain-rate transients are associated with fast lake drainage, we examined Landsat-derived strain rates over 16 and 32 d periods at moulins associated with 240 fast-lake-drainage events over 18 years. A low signal-to-noise ratio, the presence of water, and the multi-week repeat cycle obscured any resolution of the hypothesized transient strain rates. Our results support the hypothesis that transient strain rates drive fast lake drainages. However, the current generation of ice sheet velocity products, even when stacked across hundreds of fast lake drainages, cannot resolve these transients. Thus, observational progress in understanding lake drainage initiation will rely on field-based tools such as GPS networks and photogrammetry.

Kristin Poinar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-C3 Applications for NASA's Space Launch System

For numerous high-interest science targets in the outer solar system and elsewhere, the limits of available launch vehicles have placed significant constraints on mission designs. Even for the current generation of heavy-lift launch vehicles, baseline capabilities still impose limitations, for example, the outer solar system in areas such as launch window availability, transit time, science payload mass, time at destination, etc. Initial studies show benefits for ultra-high C3 missions from configurations of NASA’s Space Launch System(SLS) adding third or fourth payload stages.

Robert W Stough↗

NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗

NASA NTRS2020

The NASA MODIS-VIIRS Continuity Cloud Optical Properties Products

The NASA Aqua MODIS and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) climate data record continuity cloud properties products (CLDPROP) were publicly released in April 2019 with an update later that year (Version 1.1). These cloud products, having heritage with the NASA Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD06 cloud optical properties product and the NOAA GOES-R Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Cloud Height Algorithm (ACHA), represent an effort to bridge the multispectral imager records of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) and NOAA’s current generation of operational weather satellites to achieve a continuous, multi-decadal climate data record for clouds that can extend well into the 2030s. CLDPROP offers a “continuity of approach,” applying common algorithms and ancillary datasets to both MODIS and VIIRS, including utilizing only a subset of spectral channels available on both sensors to help mitigate instrument differences. The initial release of the CLDPROP_MODIS and CLDPROP_VIIRS data records spans the SNPP observational record (2012-present). Here, we present an overview of the algorithms and an evaluation of the intersensor continuity of the core CLDPROP_MODIS and CLDPROP_VIIRS cloud optical property datasets, i.e., cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, effective particle size, and derived water path. The evaluation includes analyses of pixel-level MODIS/VIIRS co-locations as well as spatial and temporal aggregated statistics, with a focus on identifying and understanding the root causes of individual dataset discontinuities. The results of this evaluation will inform future updates to the CLDPROP products and help scientific users determine the appropriate use of the product datasets for their specific needs.

satellite remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2013

MRAM Technology Status

Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory (MRAM) is much different from conventional types of memory like SRAM, DRAM, and Flash, where electric charge is used to store information. Instead of exploiting the charge of an electron, MRAM uses its spin to store data. This new type of electronics is known as “spintronics.” The primary focus of this report is the current generation of MRAM technology, and its reliability, vendors, and space-readiness.

Heidecker, Jason↗

NASA NTRS2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification (A ~ 900) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary-lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio of q ~ 2 × 10^−3 improves the fits by Δχ2 = 181.8, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with Δχ2 = 16.0 and 13.5 for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of M(host)=0.31 (+0.37, -0.17) Mꙩ and that the planetary system is located at a distance of D9L)=7.04 (+1.10, -1.33) kpc toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is M(p)=0.64 (+0.76, -0.35) M(J). The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by follow-up observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive follow-up observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

Cheongho Han↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tangerine Dream: Observations of Titan from the Earth

From its discovery in 1655 by the Dutch astronomer Christiaan Huygens, Titan perplexed and confounded Earth-based astronomers for three centuries with its stubborn refusal to yield virtually any clues about its nature. Until the Voyager 1 1980, even fundamentals such as its true diameter, surface pressure, and major atmospheric gas were uncertain [1]. Most of the information we now know about Titan has been wrestled at great expense of time and effort by three spacecraft visitors: Voyager 1, Cassini and Huygens. So why then continue to bother with Earth-based telescopic observations? In this review talk I will describe how significant clues about Titan’s atmospheric composition began to emerge from ground-based observations in the 1940s through 1970s, in the run-up to the revolutionary Voyager 1 flyby. These included the discovery of methane [2], and other significant hydrocarbons including ethane and acetylene in Titan’s stratosphere [3, 4]. Further ground and space-based telescopic work in the 1980s and 1990s revealed the presence of the fourth most abundance gas, carbon monoxide [5], spotted for the first time the bright continent on Titan’s leading hemisphere now known as Xanadu [6], and the comings and goings of bright tropospheric clouds [7]. The Cassini-Huygens mission of 2004-2017 [8, 9] greatly expanded our knowledge of Titan, including the first in situ measurements of the atmosphere and detailed imaging of the surface. However in the two-decades long gap before the next mission, Dragonfly, reaches Titan we are finding new ways to further our knowledge of Titan using the current generation of telescopes and instruments. With high-resolution spectroscopy at infrared and sub-millimeter wavelengths we are finding new chemical constituents in the atmosphere, and even measuring wind fields at middle altitudes. I will conclude by discussing how the next generation of Earth and space-based telescopes and instruments promises yet more breakthroughs via astronomy, including with large aperture 30 and 40 meter class telescopes that will become available in the late 2020s, and spectroscopy with airborne

Titan↗