Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “continuum modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of interlaminar damage modeling strategies for hybrid composite/aluminum laminates subjected to low-velocity impact

Low-velocity impact of hybrid metal-composite structures was investigated experimentally and computationally. Composite laminates consisting of 2D woven glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) were joined with a 6061-T6 aluminum plate using an epoxy adhesive. Two variations of the structure were studied; one consisting of all plies oriented at 0° and one consisting of all plies oriented at 45°. A drop tower was used to impact structures at a range of energies, including energies above and below the threshold at which the aluminum layer was perforated. Numerical simulations were implemented using Sierra/SM, an in-house transient dynamics finite element code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. A Hosford plasticity model was used to describe the response of the aluminum layer. A newly implemented orthotropic continuum damage mechanics (CDM) constitutive model was used to represent the composite laminate. This 3D-CDM model was compared to a cohesive zone model (2D-CDM/CZM) to investigate efficacy of aluminum perforation energy prediction, delamination prediction, and computational cost. Accuracy of each model was evaluated using the experimental results. Each showed good agreement with the tests for both the force and velocity histories, as well as the observed damage mechanisms. The 2D-CDM/CZM model was marginally more accurate in capturing both the composite and aluminum behavior — this model averaged error percentages of -11.2% and 10.8% for residual velocity and peak force, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3D-CDM model predictions yielded average error percentages of -35.5% (velocity) and 22.6% (force). However, the 3D-CDM model generally resulted in a decreased computational cost; the average run time was 14% shorter than the 2D-CDM/CZM model and 3x as many timesteps per hour were computed using the same computational resources. In conclusion, new experimental data on the impact and perforation resistance of metal-composite laminates is presented in addition to numerical predictions of the impact behavior.

Carbon fiber↗
DOE OSTI2025

JAX-CanVeg: A Differentiable Land Surface Model

Land surface models consider the exchange of water, energy, and carbon along the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, which is challenging to model due to their complex interdependency and associated challenges in representing and parameterizing them. Differentiable modeling provides a new opportunity to capture these complex interactions by seamlessly hybridizing process-based models with deep neural networks (DNNs), benefiting both worlds, that is, the physical interpretation of process-based models and the learning power of DNNs. Here, we developed a differentiable land model, JAX-CanVeg. The new model builds on the legacy CanVeg by incorporating advanced functionalities through JAX in the graphic processing unit support, automatic differentiation, and integration with DNNs. We demonstrated JAX-CanVeg's hybrid modeling capability by applying the model at four flux tower sites with varying aridity. To this end, we developed a hybrid version of the Ball-Berry equation that emulates the water stress impact on stomatal closure to explore the capability of the hybrid model in (a) improving the simulations of latent heat fluxes (LE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), (b) improving the optimization trade-off when learning observations of both LE and NEE, and (c) benefiting a multi-layer canopy model setup. Our results show that the proposed hybrid model improved the simulations of LE and NEE at all sites, with an improved optimization trade-off over the process-based model. Additionally, the multi-layer canopy set benefited hybrid modeling at some sites. Anchored in differentiable modeling, our study provides a new avenue for modeling land-atmosphere interactions by leveraging the benefits of both data-driven learning and process-based modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaboratory on Mathematics for Mesoscopic Modeling of Materials (CM4)(Final Technical Report)

Our work on the CM4 grant focused on new mathematical and computational approaches for stochastic methods for mesoscopic systems. Our work included continuum SPDEs, molecular coarse-grained models, and hybrid particle-continuum approaches. This work was motivated by applications in soft materials, fluidic devices, and interfacial phenomena. Throughout the project we collaborated with several staff researchers, including from Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) as well as other members of the CM4 project. Below we summarize briefly a few specific accomplishments from this work over the funding period. A full list of published papers and software releases supported by the grant are listed at the end.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2019

The CO2-Broadened H2O Continuum in the 100-1500 cm(sup -1) Region: Measurements, Predictions and Empirical Model

Transmission spectra of H2O+CO2 mixtures have been recorded, at 296, 325 and 366 K, for various pressures and mixture compositions using two experimental setups. Their analysis enables to retrieve values of the “continuum” absorption by the CO2-broadened H2O line wings between 100 and 1500 cm(exp -1). The results are in good agreement with those, around 1300 cm(exp -1), of the single previous experimental study available. Comparisons are also made with direct predictions based on line-shape correction factors X calculated, almost thirty years ago, using a quasistatic approach and an input H2O-CO2 intermolecular potential. They show that this model quite nicely predicts, with slightly overestimated values, the continuum over a spectral range where it varies by more than three orders of magnitude. An empirical correction is proposed, based on the experimental data, which should be useful for radiative transfer and climate studies in CO2 rich planetary atmospheres.

CO2↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microscopic study of the coupled-wire construction and plausible realization in spin-dependent optical lattices

Coupled-wire constructions offer particularly simple and powerful models to capture the essence of strongly correlated topological phases of matter. They often rely on effective theories valid in the low-energy and strong-coupling limits, which impose severe constraints on the physical systems where they could be realized. In this work, we investigate the microscopic relevance of a class of coupled-wire models and their possible experimental realization in cold-atom experiments. We connect with earlier results and prove the emergence of fractional quantum Hall states in the limit of strong interwire tunneling. Contrary to previous studies relying on renormalization group arguments, our microscopic approach exposes the connection between coupled-wire constructions and model wave functions in continuum Landau levels. Then, we use exact-diagonalization methods to investigate the appearance of these fractional quantum Hall states in more realistic settings. We examine the parameter regimes where these strongly correlated phases arise, and provide a way to detect their appearance in cold-atom experiments through standard time-of-flight measurements. Motivated by this experimental probe, we finally propose a realization of our model with cold atoms in spin-dependent optical lattices. Our estimates show that the previous fractional quantum Hall phases lie within experimentally accessible parameter regimes, giving a viable route toward their experimental study.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2019

Progressive Damage and Failure Analysis of Bonded Composite Joints at High Energy Dynamic Impacts

Both wing and fuselage structures utilize bonded composite joints for structural efficiency in modern commercial and military aircraft. To ensure compliance with certification requirements mechanical fasteners are typically used as a failsafe mechanism for appropriate strength in the event of complete stiffener disbond. However, the use of fasteners decreases the structural efficiency of the structure by adding weight. This establishes the requirement to better exploit the efficiency of bonded structures and fully understand the failure behavior of adhesively bonded composite structures, particularly when subjected to elevated loading rates due to high energy dynamic impacts (HEDI). For this reason, the NASA Advanced Composite Consortium (ACC) HEDI team developed an experimentation and numerical modeling program for high rate loading of composite joints. In the present work, the response of adhesively bonded composite joints subjected to elevated loading rates is studied numerically and validated against experimental results. Due to dynamic considerations of experiments, the idea of wedge insert was extended to use with Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) testing techniques. Mode-I and Mode-II test configurations were simulated to evaluate the capability of two continuum damage material (CDM) models in LS-DYNA, namely MAT162 and MAT261. Three different levels of fidelity were considered to investigate the level of detail required to numerically predict the failure behavior and the results from high fidelity analysis are presented.

MAT261↗
NASA NTRS1994

NLTE model stellar atmospheres with line blanketing near the series limits

In this paper we study the influence of line-merging regions at the intermediate long-wavelength side of a continuum threshold on the computed model atmosphere structure and predicted spectrum. In order to model these regions sufficiently accurately, we have developed two concepts. First, we have extended the occupation probability formalism of Hummer and Mihalas to non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) plasmas. Second, in order to treat the very complicated opacity in the line merging region, we have generalized the concept of opacity distribution functions to treat non-LTE situations. All Rydberg states are consistently included within this framework, so that no arbitrary cutoff of high (LTE) levels is made. We have calculated several pure hydrogen models atmospheres for two effective temperatures, T(sub eff) = 20000 and 35000 K, and discussed the differences between models calculated with various treatments of the line merging. In particular, we have shown that the error in the predicted profiles of Balmer lines resulting from the neglect of line merging is typically of the order of 3-4%, while the errors in the far-UV portion of the Balmer continuum reaches 15-35%. The errors generally decrease with increasing effective temperature. At the same time, the internal accuracy of the models is shown to be about or below 0.5% for all predicted spectral features. We conclude that for interpreting current high-accuracy spectrophotometric observations models including the line merging are necessary, and that the formalism developed in this paper is capable of providing a sufficiently accurate and robust modeling technique.

Hubeny, I.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Monthly Nitrate Concentration in a Karst Spring with and without Discrete Conduit Flow

Understanding the coupled continuum pipe-flow framework for modeling contaminant transport in karst systems is critical for protecting water resources therein. This study simulated point and non-point source nitrate concentration in a karst spring and investigated the results generated from the flow and transport model with and without discrete conduit flow. CFPv2 and CMT3D models were integrated to address the changes in nitrate concentration at a monthly scale in a karst spring, and the results were compared with that from an equivalent porous media (EPM) model with high-hydraulic conductivity (K) zones set in the main karstified area to represent conduits. The results show that the CFPv2+CMT3D model is able to describe well the recession of nitrate concentration in spring discharge, and the relatively larger deviation (slower nitrate recession) from the observed trend for the EPM model is probably a result of the limitation of utilizing high hydraulic conductivity cells to represent conduit. Moreover, simulated hydraulic heads in poorly karstified areas from the two models both show slight differences from the observations (the head RMSE values of calibration/validation for CFPv2 and MODFLOW models are 0.16 m/0.25 m and 0.26 m/0.17 m, respectively), indicating the inclusion of conduits may not affect the simulation considerably, and the lower the proportion of karstic area, the slight effects brought from the inclusion of conduits in the model. For highly karstified areas, the CFPv2+CMT3D model could provide more accurate results (head RMSE of calibration/validation for CFPv2 and MODFLOW are 0.22 m/0.06 and 0.52 m/0.47 m, respectively), showing the coupled continuum pipe-flow framework may be more appropriate for applying to highly and maturely karstified areas where the variations in the behavior of flow and contaminant transport are more affected by turbulent flow regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Observations of Scorpius X-1 with IUE - Ultraviolet results from a multiwavelength campaign

IUE UV results are presented for the low-mass X-ray binary Sco X-1. Models that predict UV continuum emission from the X-ray-heated surface from the companion star and from an X-ray illuminated accretion disk are adjusted for parameters intrinsic to Sco X-1, and fitted to the data. X-ray heating is found to be the dominant source of UV emission; the mass-accretion rate increases monotonically along the 'Z-shaped' curve in an X-ray color-color diagram. UV emission lines from He, C, N, O, and Si were detected; they all increase in intensity from the HB to the FB state. A model in which emission lines are due to outer-disk photoionization by the X-ray source is noted to give good agreement with line fluxes observed in each state.

Vrtilek, S. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The reactive flow evolution of the polymer-bonded explosive PBX 9502: Experiments and model validation in extreme pressure regimes

The shock-to-detonation transition properties of the triaminotrinitrobenzene based PBX 9502 high explosive (HE) are experimentally and computationally explored in extremely high input pressure conditions. These include both slightly sub-Chapman–Jouguet and overdriven input pressure conditions, namely, ∼25 and ∼31 GPa, respectively. Our experiments capture the transient buildup of a shock-induced reaction via measurement of HE and polymethyl methacrylate window interface particle velocity profiles for a variety of sample thicknesses for this insensitive HE. These observations necessitate extremely thin explosive samples, and the high rates of reaction provide a considerable challenge to optical diagnostics. Samples at these thicknesses also provide an opportunity for evaluation of potential micro-structure effects on the resulting shock-to-detonation-transition measurements. To address this, the thin samples are also characterized via x-ray micro-computed tomography. Finally, a pair of previously established continuum-level detonation performance modeling approaches for PBX 9502 were used to analyze the experiments. The employed model variants crucially differ in their definition of each model’s empirical reaction rate functional form, utilization of shock state quantities, and local flow variable dependencies. As a result, the present experiments provide a novel platform to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative consequences stemming from these modeling choices in a challenging initiation scenario, largely beyond the chosen calibration range of either model. This new experimental information will provide a platform for both improved physics and model parameterizations for this well-studied explosive.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Exceptionally Powerful, Radiatively Driven Ultrafast Outflow in the Rapidly Accreting AGN RE J1034+396

We report the analysis of ∼1 Ms of XMM-Newton observations of the rapidly accreting active galactic nucleus RE J1034+396. The 0.3–9 keV EPIC-pn spectra are well described by a model consisting of steep continuum emission from the corona accompanied by relativistically blurred reflection from a highly ionized accretion disk. The source is known to exhibit strong excess soft X-ray emission, which we show is well represented by thermal disk photons Comptonized by a warm plasma spanning the inner accretion flow. Additionally, the EPIC-pn data provide compelling evidence (ΔC ∼ 60 for four additional parameters) for the presence of an ultrafast outflow (UFO) with a line-of-sight velocity v/c = 0.307$^{+0.001}_{-0.005}$, and an emission signature consistent with reflection of the corona from modestly ionized, outflowing gas. The simultaneous 0.5–2.5 keV RGS spectra show clear absorption lines. Modelling of these data confirms the presence of the UFO and constrains its equivalent hydrogen column density, log N H /(atom cm −2 ) = 21.7$^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$. The RGS data also reveal at least two warm absorber components with a modest outflow velocity (1680$^{+40}_{-50}$ km s -1 ). The measured properties and time evolution of the UFO in RE J1034+396 suggest that it is formed from collisionally ionized plasma, launched from the disk surface and accelerated by radiation pressure. The high terminal velocity and substantial absorbing column density imply that the outflow carries sufficient momentum and energy to transform its environment, being capable of driving out essentially all dust and gas it interacts with along the line of sight, even if the AGN were initially surrounded by a Compton-thick absorber.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing Lithium-Ion Battery Aging Simulations: Coupling a High-Resolution, 3D, Grain-Scale Electromechanical Model to a Single-Particle Model

One of the main goals in modeling lithium-ion batteries is to improve/predict longevity and resilience of new chemistries. Unfortunately, this requires simulation of thousands of charge/discharge cycles, which can be rather time consuming depending on the fidelity of the simulation. The purpose of this talk is to discuss a new modeling framework that couples a high-resolution, continuous damage model (CDM) to a single particle model (SPM) resulting in a good combination of speed and fidelity. In previous work, a 3D, continuum-level chemo-mechanical model was developed to investigate cracking within a single cathode particle comprised of hundreds to thousands of randomly oriented grains. The CDM predicted that particle fracture is primarily due to non-ideal grain interactions with slight dependence on high-rate charge demands. Essentially, when neighboring grains were misaligned, they expanded different rates relative to one another leading to high stresses and ultimately the formation of intraparticle cracks. The model predicted that small particles with large grains develop significantly less damage than larger particles with small grains. Finally, the model predicted most of the chemo-mechanical damage accumulates in the first charge after formation. This chemo-mechanical "damage saturation" effect indicated that initial particle fracture occurs within the first few cycles, while long-term cathode degradation is not solely chemo-mechanically induced. This led to a need for simulating fatigue-like mechanism that degrade the battery over longer time scales. In order to reach the time scales, need to resolve fatigue-like degradation, the CDM needs to be complemented by a faster model. Therefore, recent efforts have been focused on using results from the CDM to inform parameters within the SPM. These parameters are homogenization factors that are associated with diffusion, particle radius, and/or exchange current density. By coupling the CDM to the SPM, the aging simulation is broken up into two domains: short-term and long-term degradation. The short-term degradation occurs over a single cycle and is handled by the CDM due of its high fidelity, but relatively expensive computational cost. Such mechanism include break-in crack caused by mismatches in grain orientation. The long-term degradation occurs over tens of cycles and is handled by the SPM due it's computational efficiency. Most of the fatigue-like mechanism fall into this category. The eventual goal of this modeling framework is to upscale to a psudo-2D model allowing for full electrode simulation, which are informed by high-fidelity grain-scale simulations.

electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections for reactions producing resonance states at or beyond the drip line

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections from fast secondary beams of the proton-drip-line nuclei 9 C, 13 O, and 17 Ne on a 9 Be target have been studied with emphasis on the production of resonance states. These states were identified by their invariant mass, and resonances with two-, three-, and five-body exit channels were examined. The measured cross sections for these states were compared with eikonal-model predictions using shell-model or variational Monte Carlo spectroscopic factors. The experimental yields were found to be suppressed relative to the model predictions, especially when a well-bound neutron or proton is removed. This suppression exceeds that found systematically in measured inclusive cross sections to particle-bound final states. In neutron knockout from 9 C and 13 O projectiles, this suppression of the unbound ground-state residuals yield is a factor of two to three times larger than that found in the bound final-state studies. Modifications to the structure of these systems due to coupling of the shell-model configurations to the continuum is expected to contribute to this extra suppression, especially when the final state is a near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, other considerations including the role of nuclear dynamics may be required to explain all the observed trends.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2024

A FFT-based mesoscale continuum dislocation mechanics with defect energy: Applications to composites and polycrystals

A crystal plasticity elastoviscoplastic FFT (fast Fourier transform) formulation with a mesoscale continuum field dislocation mechanics model is presented, which incorporates a defect energy density that depends on GND densities and an associated material length scale. This allows to thermodynamically derive internal length scale dependent intra-crystalline backstress and Peach–Koehler force acting on GND densities. The model considers GND density evolution through a filtered numerical spectral approach, which is coupled with stress equilibrium through the elastoviscoplastic FFT algorithm. The discrete Fourier transform (DFT) method together with finite difference (FD) schemes is applied to solve both the backstress tensor and the Fourier–Green operator. Numerical results are first reported for two-phase laminate composites with plastic single crystal channels and elastic precipitates for shear loadings. Channel size effects are simulated and analyzed on the overall and local hardening behaviors during monotonous loadings. In addition, the evolutions of GND densities and the role of their associated backstress on size effects are examined during reversible shear loading. In a second part, the role of the defect energy internal length scale on polycrystal’s hardening during tension–compression is discussed. The results are compared to those obtained using FFT-based continuum field dislocation mechanics without defect energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1988

Tether damping in space

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a long tether connecting two spacecraft in earth orbit, one of the spacecraft having dominant mass. In particular, it considers the material damping of the tether. The nominal position of the tether is stabilized by the gravity gradient such that it is aligned with the local vertical. The tether is modeled as a viscoelastic flexible continuum. Modal frequencies are derived in an analytical approximation form. Damping ratios are estimated according to the linear model calibrated by ground measurements. The results show that, with properly chosen tether material and braiding structure, longitudinal vibrations of the tethered system are well damped.

Powell, J. David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model for Humidity-Mediated Diffusion on Aluminum Surfaces and Its Role in Accelerating Atmospheric Aluminum Corrosion

Bare aluminum metal surfaces are highly reactive, which leads to the spontaneous formation of a protective oxide surface layer. Because many subsequent corrosive processes are mediated by water, the structure and dynamics of water at the oxide interface are anticipated to influence corrosion kinetics. Here, using molecular dynamics simulations with a reactive force field, we model the behavior of aqueous aluminum metal ions in water adsorbed onto aluminum oxide surfaces across a range of ion concentrations and water film thicknesses corresponding to increasing relative humidity. We find that the structure and diffusivity of both the water and the metal ions depend strongly on the humidity of the environment and the relative height within the adsorbed water film. Aqueous aluminum ion diffusion rates in water films corresponding to a typical indoor relative humidity of 30% are found to be more than 2 orders of magnitude slower than self-diffusion of water in the bulk limit. Connections between metal ion diffusivity and corrosion reaction kinetics are assessed parametrically with a reductionist model based on a 1D continuum reaction–diffusion equation. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating the properties specific to interfacial water in predictive models of aluminum corrosion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling Alzheimer’s disease neurodegeneration from typical brain ageing using machine learning

Abstract Neuroimaging biomarkers that distinguish between changes due to typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease are valuable for determining how much each contributes to cognitive decline. Supervised machine learning models can derive multivariate patterns of brain change related to the two processes, including the Spatial Patterns of Atrophy for Recognition of Alzheimer’s Disease (SPARE-AD) and of Brain Aging (SPARE-BA) scores investigated herein. However, the substantial overlap between brain regions affected in the two processes confounds measuring them independently. We present a methodology, and associated results, towards disentangling the two. T1-weighted MRI scans of 4054 participants (48–95 years) with Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) diagnoses from the Imaging-based coordinate SysTem for AGIng and NeurodeGenerative diseases (iSTAGING) consortium were analysed. Multiple sets of SPARE scores were investigated, in order to probe imaging signatures of certain clinically or molecularly defined sub-cohorts. First, a subset of clinical Alzheimer’s disease patients (n = 718) and age- and sex-matched CN adults (n = 718) were selected based purely on clinical diagnoses to train SPARE-BA1 (regression of age using CN individuals) and SPARE-AD1 (classification of CN versus Alzheimer’s disease) models. Second, analogous groups were selected based on clinical and molecular markers to train SPARE-BA2 and SPARE-AD2 models: amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease continuum group (n = 718; consisting of amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease, amyloid-positive MCI, amyloid- and tau-positive CN individuals) and amyloid-negative CN group (n = 718). Finally, the combined group of the Alzheimer’s disease continuum and amyloid-negative CN individuals was used to train SPARE-BA3 model, with the intention to estimate brain age regardless of Alzheimer’s disease-related brain changes. The disentangled SPARE models, SPARE-AD2 and SPARE-BA3, derived brain patterns that were more specific to the two types of brain changes. The correlation between the SPARE-BA Gap (SPARE-BA minus chronological age) and SPARE-AD was significantly reduced after the decoupling (r = 0.56–0.06). The correlation of disentangled SPARE-AD was non-inferior to amyloid- and tau-related measurements and to the number of APOE ε4 alleles but was lower to Alzheimer’s disease-related psychometric test scores, suggesting the contribution of advanced brain ageing to the latter. The disentangled SPARE-BA was consistently less correlated with Alzheimer’s disease-related clinical, molecular and genetic variables. By employing conservative molecular diagnoses and introducing Alzheimer’s disease continuum cases to the SPARE-BA model training, we achieved more dissociable neuroanatomical biomarkers of typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease.

Hwang, Gyujoon↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗