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Gravitational-Wave Physics and Astronomy in the 2020s and 2030s

The 100 years since the publication of Albert Einstein’s theory of General Relativity saw significant development of the understanding of the theory, the identification of potential astrophysical sources of sufficiently strong gravitational waves, and development of key technologies for gravitational-wave detectors. In 2015, the first gravitational wave signals were detected by the two US Advanced LIGO instruments. In 2017, Advanced LIGO and the European Advanced Virgo detectors pinpointed a binary neutron star coalescence that was also seen across the electromagnetic spectrum. The field of gravitational wave astronomy is just starting, and this Roadmap of future developments surveys the potential for growth in bandwidth and sensitivity of future gravitational-wave detectors and discusses the science results anticipated to come from upcoming instruments.

Compact astrophysical objects↗

Long-term Pulse Period Evolution of the Ultra-luminous X-ray Pulsar NGC 7793 P13

Ultra-luminous X-ray pulsars (ULXPs) provide a unique opportunity to study persistent super-Eddington accretion. Here we present the results of a long-term monitoring campaign of ULXP NGC 7793 P13, focusing on the pulse period evolution and the determination of the orbital ephemeris. Over our four year monitoring campaign with Swift, XMM-Newton, and NuSTAR, we measure a continuous spin-up with an average value of ̇P≈−3.8×10−11s s−1. We find that the strength of the spin-up is independent of the observed X-ray flux, indicating that despite a drop in observed flux in 2019, accretion onto the source has continued at largely similar rates. The source entered an apparent off-state in early 2020, which might have resulted in a change of the accretion geometry as no pulsations were found in observations in July/August 2020.We use the long-term monitoring to update the orbital ephemeris, as well as the periodicities seen in both the observed optical/UV and X-ray fluxes. We find that the optical/UV period is very stable over the years, with PUV=63.75+0.17−0.12d. The best-fit orbital period determined from our X-ray timing results is 64.86±0.19 d, almost a day longer than previously implied, and the X-ray flux period is65.21±0.15 d, slightly shorter than measured previously. The physical origin of these different flux periods is currently unknown. We study the hardness ratio of the XMM-Newton and NuSTAR data between 2013–2020 to search for indications of spectral changes. We find that the hardness ratios at high energies are very stable and not directly correlated with the observed flux. At lower energies we observe a small hardening with increased flux, which might indicate increased obscuration through outflows at higher luminosities. Comparing the changes in flux with the observed pulsed fraction, we find that the pulsed fraction is significantly higher at low fluxes. This seems to imply that the accretion geometry already changed before the source entered the deep off-state. We discuss possible scenarios to explain this behavior, which is likely driven by a precessing accretion disk.

Neutron stars↗

A ~60 day Super-orbital Period Originating from the Ultraluminous X-ray Pulsar in M82

Ultraluminous X-ray (ULX) pulsars are a new class of object powered by apparent super-critical accretion onto magnetized neutron stars. Three sources in this class have been identified so far; M82X-2, NGC 5907 ULX-1, and NGC 7793 P13 have been found to have two properties in common; ∼1 s spin periods, and for NGC 5907 ULX-1 and NGC 7793 P13 periodic X-ray flux modulations on timescales of ∼60–80 days. M82 X-2 resides in a crowded field that includes the ULX M82 X-1 separated from X-2 by 5″, as well as other bright point sources. A 60 day modulation has been observed from the region, but the origin has been difficult to identify; both M82 X-1 and X-2 have been suggested as the source. In this paper we present the analysis of a systematic monitoring campaign by Chandra, the only X-ray telescope capable of resolving the crowded field. From a simple Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis and a more sophisticated Gaussian Process analysis we find that only X-2 exhibits a periodic signal around 60 days, supporting previous claims that it is the origin. We also construct a phase-averaged flux profile of the modulations from higher-cadence Swift/XRT data and find that the flux variations in the Chandra data are fully consistent with the flux profile. Since the orbit of the neutron star and its companion is known to be 2.5 days, the ∼60 day period must be super-orbital in origin. The flux of the modulations varies by a factor of ∼100 from the minimum to the maximum, with no evidence for spectral variations, making the origin difficult to explain.

Individual galaxies↗

Follow-up and Validation of K2 and TESS Planetary Systems with Keck NIRC2 Adaptive Optics Imaging

High resolution imaging (HRI) is a critical part of the transiting exoplanet follow-up and validation process. HRI allows previously unresolved stellar companions and background blends to be resolved, vetting false positive signals and improving the radii measurements of true planets. Through a multi-semester Keck NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging program, we have pursued HRI of K2 and TESS candidate planet host systems to provide the transiting exoplanet community with necessary data for system validation and characterization. Here we present a summary of our ongoing program that includes an up to date list of targets observed, a description of the observations and data reduction, and a discussion of planetary systems validated by the community using these data. This observing program has been key in NASA’s K2 and TESS missions reaching their goals of identifying new exoplanets ideal for continued follow-up observations to measure their masses and investigate their atmospheres. All observations presented here are available as calibrated images and resulting contrast curves through the Exoplanet Follow-up Observing Program (ExoFOP) website. We encourage members of the exoplanet community to use these data products in their ongoing planetary system validation and characterization efforts.

Adaptive optics↗

The Zwicky Transient Facility: Data Processing, Products, and Archive

The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new robotic time-domain survey currently in progress using the Palomar 48-inch Schmidt Telescope. ZTF uses a 47 square degree field with a 600 megapixel camera to scan the entire northern visible sky at rates of ∼3760 square degrees/hour to median depths of g ~ 20.8 and r ~ 20.6 mag (AB, 5σ in 30 sec). We describe the Science Data System that is housed at IPAC, Caltech. This comprises the data-processing pipelines, alert production system, data archive, and user interfaces for accessing and analyzing the products. The real-time pipeline employs a novel image-differencing algorithm, optimized for the detection of point-source transient events. These events are vetted for reliability using a machine-learned classifier and combined with contextual information to generate data-rich alert packets. The packets become available for distribution typically within 13 minutes (95th percentile) of observation. Detected events are also linked to generate candidate moving-object tracks using a novel algorithm. Objects that move fast enough to streak in the individual exposures are also extracted and vetted. We present some preliminary results of the calibration performance delivered by the real-time pipeline. The reconstructed astrometric accuracy per science image with respect to Gaia DR1 is typically 45 to 85 milliarcsec. This is the RMS per-axis on the sky for sources extracted with photometric S/N ≥10 and hence corresponds to the typical astrometric uncertainty down to this limit. The derived photometric precision (repeatability) at bright unsaturated fluxes varies between 8 and 25 millimag. The high end of these ranges corresponds to an airmass approaching ∼2—the limit of the public survey. Photometric calibration accuracy with respect to Pan-STARRS1 is generally better than 2%. The products support a broad range of scientific applications: fast and young supernovae; rare flux transients; variable stars; eclipsing binaries; variability from active galactic nuclei; counterparts to gravitational wave sources; a more complete census of Type Ia supernovae; and solar-system objects.

Frank J. Masci↗

Model Validation of Phase-Induced Amplitude Apodization Complex Mask Coronagraph for LUVOIR-A in Vacuum

The Phase-Induced Amplitude Apodization Complex Mask Coronagraph (PIAACMC) is a coronagraph architecture for the next generation of large space telescopes optimized for habitable exoplanet imaging that can achieve attractive theoretical performance with high throughput at small inner working angles (IWA). PIAACMC designs are compatible with large, on-axis, segmented apertures such as the Large UV / Optical/ Infrared A (LUVOIR-A) concept currently being considered by the decadal survey review which would greatly enhance the possibility to achieve statistically significant scientific yields and signal quality for direct imaging exoplanet surveys. PIAACMC has been recently implemented for LUVOIR-A and is currently being tested in vacuum at JPL’s High-Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT). In this work, we review the theoretical performance of the PIAACMC instrument designed to meet a 1e-9 raw contrast goal in 10% broadband light in a region from 2-8 L/D both before and after the wavefront control loop. We use empirical measurements from the vacuum testbed to verify the instrument model and its performance including line-of-sight errors, instrument alignment, and fabricated components. In particular, the model verification includes measured sags of the manufactured PIAA mirrors by NuTek. The CMC mask was manufactured at JPL’s Microdevices Laboratory and we include surface profile characterization measurement. We assess the impact on performance of the different manufacturing and alignment errors.

High-Contrast Imaging↗

Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of <1yr^(−1) in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at 39.7^(+20.3)(-9.1)M or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at 33.1^(+4.0)(-5.6)M (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to ~65M or beyond, only 2.9^(+3.5)(-1.7)M% of systems have primary masses greater than 45M. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, χeff. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing |χeff| > 0.01 are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding RBBH = 23.9^(+14.3)(-8.6) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for BBHs and RBNS = 320^(+490)(-240) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift (85% credibility) but not faster than the star formation rate (86% credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.

R Abbott↗

Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts

Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic after glow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics ofO3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers

Polina Petrov↗

TIC 172900988: A Transiting Circumbinary Planet Detected in One Sector of TESS Data

We report the first discovery of a transiting circumbinary planet detected from a single sector of Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data. During Sector 21, the planet TIC 172900988b transited the primary star and then five days later it transited the secondary star. The binary is itself eclipsing, with a period P ≈ 19.7 days and an eccentricity e ≈ 0.45. Archival data from ASAS-SN, Evryscope, KELT, and SuperWASP reveal a prominent apsidal motion of the binary orbit, caused by the dynamical interactions between the binary and the planet. A comprehensive photodynamical analysis of the TESS, archival and follow-up data yields stellar masses and radii of M(1) = 1.2384 ± 0.0007 Mꙩ and R(1) = 1.3827 ± 0.0016 Rꙩ for the primary and M(2) = 1.2019 ± 0.0007 Mꙩ and R(2) = 1.3124 ± 0.0012 Rꙩ for the secondary. The radius of the planet is R(3) = 11.25 ± 0.44 Rꚛ (1.004 ± 0.039R(Jup)). The planet’s mass and orbital properties are not uniquely determined—there are six solutions with nearly equal likelihood. Specifically, we find that the planet’s mass is in the range of 824 ≲ M3 ≲ 981 Mꚛ (2.65 ≲ M3 ≲ 3.09M(Jup)), its orbital period could be 188.8, 190.4, 194.0, 199.0, 200.4, or 204.1 days, and the eccentricity is between 0.02 and 0.09. At V = 10.141 mag, the system is accessible for high-resolution spectroscopic observations, e.g., the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect and transit spectroscopy.

Veselin B. Kostov↗

INTEGRAL reloaded: Spacecraft, instruments and ground system

The European Space Agency’s INTErnational Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory (ESA/INTEGRAL) was launched aboard a Proton-DM2 rocket on 17 October 2002 at 06:41 CEST, from Baikonur in Kazakhstan. Since then, INTEGRAL has been providing long, uninterrupted observations (up to about 47 h, or 170 ksec, per satellite orbit of 2.7 days) with a large field-of-view (FOV, fully coded: 100 deg), millisecond time resolution, keV energy resolution, polarization measurements, as well as additional wavelength coverage at optical wavelengths. This is realized by two main instruments in the 15 keV to 10 MeV energy range, the spectrometer SPI (spectral resolution 3 keV at 1.8 MeV) and the imager IBIS (angular resolution: 12 arcmin FWHM), complemented by X-ray (JEM-X; 3–35 keV) and optical (OMC; Johnson V-band) monitor instruments. All instruments are co-aligned to simultaneously observe the target region. A particle radiation monitor (IREM) measures charged particle fluxes near the spacecraft. The Anti-coincidence subsystems of the main instruments, built to reduce the background, are also very efficient all-sky γ-ray detectors, which provide virtually omni-directional monitoring above ~75 keV. Besides the long, scheduled observations, INTEGRAL can rapidly (within a couple of hours) re-point and conduct Target of Opportunity (ToO) observations on a large variety of sources. INTEGRAL observations and their scientific results have been building an impressive legacy: The discovery of currently more than 600 new high-energy sources; the first-ever direct detection of (56)Ni and (56)Co radio-active decay lines from a Type Ia supernova; spectroscopy of isotopes from galactic nucleo-synthesis sources; new insights on enigmatic positron annihilation in the Galactic bulge and disk; and pioneering gamma-ray polarization studies. INTEGRAL is also a successful actor in the new multi-messenger astronomy introduced by non-electromagnetic signals from gravitational waves and from neutrinos: INTEGRAL found the first prompt electromagnetic radiation in coincidence with a binary neutron star merger. Up to now more than 1750 scientific papers based on INTEGRAL data have been published in refereed journals. In this paper, we will give a comprehensive update of the satellite status after more than 18 years of operations in a harsh space environment, and an account of the successful Ground Segment.

Erik Kuulkers↗

Foraging with MUSHROOMS: A Mixed-integer Linear Programming Scheduler for Multimessenger Target of Opportunity Searches with the Zwicky Transient Facility

Electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational-wave detections is very resource intensive, taking up hours of limited observation time on dozens of telescopes. Creating more efficient schedules for follow-up will lead to a commensurate increase in counterpart location efficiency without using more telescope time. Widely used in operations research and telescope scheduling, mixed-integer linear programming is a strong candidate to produce these higher-efficiency schedules, as it can make use of powerful commercial solvers that find globally optimal solutions to provided problems. We detail a new target-of-opportunity scheduling algorithm designed with Zwicky Transient Facility in mind that uses mixed-integer linear programming. We compare its performance to gwemopt, the tuned heuristic scheduler used by the Zwicky Transient Facility and other facilities during the third LIGO–Virgo gravitational-wave observing run. This new algorithm uses variable-length observing blocks to enforce cadence requirements and to ensure field observability, along with having a secondary optimization step to minimize slew time. We show that by employing a hybrid method utilizing both this scheduler and gwemopt, the previous scheduler used, in concert, we can achieve an average improvement in detection efficiency of 3%–11% over gwemopt alone for a simulated binary neutron star merger data set consistent with LIGO–Virgo's third observing run, highlighting the potential of mixed-integer target of opportunity schedulers for future multimessenger follow-up surveys.

B Parazin↗

The Role of a Neutron Component in the Photospheric Emission of Long Duration Gamma-Ray Burst Jets

Long-duration gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs), thought to be produced during core-collapse supernovæ, may have a prominent neutron component in the outflow material. If present, neutrons can change how photons scatter in the outflow by reducing its opacity, thereby allowing the photons to decouple sooner than if there were no neutrons present. Understanding the details of this process could therefore allow us to probe the central engine of LGRBs, which is otherwise hidden. Here, we present results of the photospheric emission from an LGRB jet, using a combination of relativistic hydrodynamic simulations and radiative transfer post-processing using the Monte Carlo Radiation Transfer (MCRaT) code. We control the size of the neutron component in the jet material by varying the equilibrium electron fraction Y e , and we find that the presence of neutrons in the GRB fireball affects the Band parameters α and E 0 , while the picture with the β parameter is less clear. In particular, the break energy E 0 is shifted to higher energies. Additionally, we find that increasing the size of the neutron component also increases the total radiated energy of the outflow across multiple viewing angles. Our results not only shed light on LGRBs, but are also relevant to short-duration gamma-ray bursts associated with binary neutron star mergers, due to the likelihood of a prominent neutron component in such systems.

Gamma-ray bursts↗

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a {\it foreground} that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about $5\%$ of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about $10$ times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Spin-Orbit Interaction in Neutron Star/Main Sequence Binaries and Implications for Pulsar Timing

The spin-induced quadrupole moment of a rapidly rotating star changes the orbital dynamics in a binary system, giving rise to advance (or regression) of periastron and precession of the orbital plane. We show that these effects are important in the recently discovered radio pulsar/mail sequence star binary system PSR J0045-7319, and reliably account for the observed peculiar timing residuals. Precise measurements of the apsidal motion and orbital plane precession can yield valuable information on the internal structure and rotation of the star. The detection of orbital precession implies that the spin of the companion star is not aligned with the orbital angular momentum, and suggests that the supernova gave the pulsar a kick out of the original orbital plane. Excitations of g-mode oscillations near periastron (the dynamical tide) can induce measurable changes in the orbital period and eccentricity at each passage for this system. We also discuss the spin-orbit coupling effects for the accreting X-ray pulsars and the other know radio pulsar/main sequence binary, PSR B1259-63.

neutron stars↗

FUV Emission from AGB Stars: Modeling Accretion Activity Associated with a Binary Companion

It is widely believed that the late stages of evolution for Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are influenced by the presence of binary companions. Unfortunately, there is a lack of direct observational evidence of binarity. However, more recently, strong indirect evidence comes from the discovery of UV emission in a subsample of these objects (fuvAGB stars). AGB stars are comparatively cool objects (< or =3000 K), thus their fluxes falls off drastically for wavelengths 3000 Angstroms and shorter. Therefore, ultraviolet observations offer an important, new technique for detecting the binary companions and/or associated accretion activity. We develop new models of UV emission from fuvAGB stars constrained by GALEX photometry and spectroscopy of these objects. We compare the GALEX UV grism spectra of the AGB M7 star EY Hya to predictions using the spectral synthesis code Cloudy, specifically investigating the ultraviolet wavelength range (1344-2831 Angstroms). We investigate models composed of contributions from a photoionized "hot spot" due to accretion activity around the companion, and "chromospheric" emission from collisionally ionized plasma, to fit the UV observations.

ultraviolet emission↗

TIC 278956474: Two Close Binaries in One Young Quadruple System Identified by TESS

We have identified a quadruple system with two close eclipsing binaries in Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data. The object is unresolved in Gaia and appears as a single source at parallax 1.08 ± 0.01 mas. Both binaries have observable primary and secondary eclipses and were monitored throughout TESS Cycle 1 (sectors 1–13), falling within the TESS Continuous Viewing Zone. In one eclipsing binary (P = 5.488 days), the smaller star is completely occluded by the larger star during the secondary eclipse; in the other (P = 5.674 days) both eclipses are grazing. Using these data, spectroscopy, speckle photometry, spectral energy distribution analysis, and evolutionary stellar tracks, we have constrained the masses and radii of the four stars in the two eclipsing binaries. The Li i equivalent width indicates an age of 10–50 Myr and, with an outer period of 858{sub −5}{sup +7} days, our analysis indicates this is one of the most compact young 2 + 2 quadruple systems known.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗