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At least 883 records · Page 49

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Exploring Wildfire & Energy data toward State Prioritization Index (WESPI)

Energy infrastructure can both induce and suffer risks from wildfires ranging from direct damage to energy assets such as substations and power lines to Public Safety Power Shutoffs. Recent wildfire events underscore the need for data-driven approaches that help states and utilities proactively plan for wildfire risk. Existing national tools such as Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)’s National Risk Index (NRI) are valuable for community hazard planning. However, they are less suited for energy infrastructure, as they emphasize population and building exposure rather than system vulnerabilities. In this paper, we explore relationships between energy and wildfire data and present a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI). Our methodology combines data from the US Forest Service’s Fire Simulation (FSIM) dataset with energy resilience metrics, historical fire incidents, and geospatial data on transmission lines and fire stations. Correlation analyses suggest that FSIM burn probability is more strongly associated with power outage metrics (ρ = 0.32) than NRI wildfire frequency, and counties with a greater density of fire stations experience more frequent, but less intense wildfires. We further leverage data for burn probability, transmission line density, and fire station density to develop a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI) to highlight counties where wildfire hazard, infrastructure exposure, and limited suppression capacity converge. The index provides a consistent, scalable framework for state energy offices and utilities to screen counties for vegetation management, optimization of outage management system deployment, and to inform wildfire mitigation plans.

Critical infrastructure↗

Resilience of electric utilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the framework of the CIGRE definition of Power System Resilience

Resilience is a vital concept in engineering, business, and natural sciences, and is a measure of the ability of an entity to withstand High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. During the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in late 2019/early 2020, power system utilities around the globe have responded in effective and efficient ways to enhance the resilience of their organisations, both in terms of real-time operations and prudent management of its infrastructure, in order to continue their mandate in providing reliable supply to meet customer demands. Here, this paper presents the CIGRE definition for power system resilience, established by the C4.47 Working Group in 2018, and demonstrates the application of resilience-oriented thinking within the electrical sector. The response and recovery efforts are described, with respect to the key actionable measures integral to the power system resilience definition, taken before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. A practical conceptual framework is also presented for thinking about resilience in terms of three key components of resilience strategies: organisational, infrastructure and operational resilience. The paper also discusses the different strategies adopted in response to COVID-19, based on the C4.47 members’ experiences during the pandemic. Finally, a case study is presented, which proves the effectiveness of a set of response measures, using graph theory and the characteristics of the staff-asset interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transmission-distribution long-term volt-var planning considering reactive power support capability of distributed PV

High penetration of grid-edge, inverter-based photovoltaic (PV) can cause significant voltage fluctuations not only at the distribution but also at the sub-transmission levels due to PV output intermittency. Traditional reactive power planning approaches do not consider intermittency, nor the possibility of coordinating the control of existing and future volt-ampere reactive resources. This paper proposes a reactive power planning tool for sub-transmission systems to mitigate voltage violations and fluctuations caused by high PV penetration and intermittency with a minimum investment cost. The planning tool coordinates with an optimization-based volt-var operational tool for: a) modeling the coordination of all existing var assets in both sub-transmission and distribution systems to reduce the need of new equipment, and b)selecting a set of scenarios with voltage violations, derived from PV intermittency c) testing the final investment decision. The tool obtains an investment need for each intermittency scenario with a proposed optimal power-flow framework with efficient techniques to handle a high number of discrete variables. Two options are provided for final planning decision: i) a conservative direct combination of investment need solutions and ii) a machine learning-based selection of representative investment needs at most time steps. The final investment decision options are verified using a realistic large-scale sub-transmission system and 5-minute PV and load data. The results show a significant voltage performance improvement with a lower investment cost for additional var equipment compared to conventional approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Designing a transactive electric vehicle agent with customer’s participation preference

The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) and their inherent flexibility in charging timings make them an asset to improve grid performance. In contrast to direct control by a utility or autonomous price-based charging, the transactive control framework not only provides benefits to both grid and customers but also ensures customer autonomy. In this work, we design a transactive electric vehicle (TEV) agent that incorporates the EV owner’s willingness to trade-off between savings and amenity in form of a slider, where the EV owner’s amenity is characterized as vehicle readiness. Further, a privacy-preserving bidding formulation is proposed that also represents the customer’s transactive preference. A transactive market mechanism is discussed that integrates the TEV Agents into the local retail market and reconciles with the current day-ahead and real-time market structure. It is demonstrated that the proposed slider is able to provide a preferred trade-off between savings and amenity to individual customers. At the same time, the market mechanism is shown to successfully reduce both peak prices and peak demand. A comparative investigation of V1G and V2G technologies with respect to the battery prices is also discussed. It reveals that the V2G does not offer significant additional benefits with current battery prices, but could be promising if battery costs decline in the future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA

Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating risk assessment methods for carbon storage: A case study for the quest carbon capture and storage facility

This paper documents how tools developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) complement the Bowtie risk assessment approach through the demonstration of a risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility near Edmonton, Alberta with the NRAP Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP Open-IAM). The Bowtie risk assessment for the Quest CCS site was developed by Shell Canada Ltd., who operates the asset on behalf of the Athabasca Oil Sand Project — a joint venture, owned by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Chevron Canada and Shell Canada Ltd. The Quest Bowtie treats site risk comprehensively – considering a large set of technical and project risks (e.g., operational risks, above ground infrastructure, public perception, etc.). NRAP tools, methods, and analyses are focused on quantitative assessment of subsurface technical risks. NRAP-Open-IAM was used to evaluate potential groundwater impacts at the Quest site, i.e., a sufficient change above background groundwater quality levels to be measurable, should CO 2 and/or brine leak from the reservoir via a faulty and/or compromised wellbore. Our results show there is a low potential for groundwater impact and support a further reduction (from ~460 to 100 km 2 ) to the established AoR for the Quest site. Integrating both approaches early in the site characterization period could significantly benefit commercial-scale projects by drastically reducing the region over which leakage risks (e.g., legacy wells) need to be evaluated, i.e., the AoR. This is especially true for brownfield sites, which could contain hundreds to thousands of legacy wells. Further, basing monitoring network design on those regions where impacts are most likely to occur has the potential to facilitate more efficient deployment of monitoring technologies and improve the likelihood of detecting a leak should one occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of synergies in converting underground storage sites: Natural gas to hydrogen with co-located CO2 storage

This study examines the untapped potential of synergistically converting underground natural gas storage (UGS) into underground hydrogen storage (UHS) with co-located CO2 storage. Current approaches to subsurface storage technology (SST) development often prioritise single-use scenarios, overlooking the benefits of integrating multiple technologies. We investigate converting UGS assets into UHS through gradual cushion-gas injection over multiple years, rather than injecting all cushion gas in the first year, and include on-site CO2 storage to offset site emissions. Mechanistic modelling shows this gradual transition reduces the Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) of H2 by 1.2-13.1% while retaining energy output within 3% of the current status quo. We also show that combined UHS and CO2 storage hubs can reduce the LCOS of CO2 by 45-77% for only a 3-10% increase in hydrogen LCOS relative to the status quo. This analysis framework may help future-proof SST sites and support a resilient, economically beneficial energy transition.

Mouli-Castillo, Julien↗

EHR-BERT: A BERT-based model for effective anomaly detection in electronic health records

Objective: Physicians and clinicians rely on data contained in electronic health records (EHRs), as recorded by health information technology (HIT), to make informed decisions about their patients. The reliability of HIT systems in this regard is critical to patient safety. Consequently, better tools are needed to monitor the performance of HIT systems for potential hazards that could compromise the collected EHRs, which in turn could affect patient safety. In this paper, we propose a new framework for detecting anomalies in EHRs using sequence of clinical events. This new framework, EHR-Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), is motivated by the gaps in the existing deep-learning related methods, including high false negatives, sub-optimal accuracy, higher computational cost, and the risk of information loss. EHR-BERT is an innovative framework rooted in the BERT architecture, meticulously tailored to navigate the hurdles in the contemporary BERT method; thus, enhancing anomaly detection in EHRs for healthcare applications.Methods: The EHR-BERT framework was designed using the Sequential Masked Token Prediction (SMTP) method. This approach treats EHRs as natural language sentences and iteratively masks input tokens during both training and prediction stages. This method facilitates the learning of EHR sequence patterns in both directions for each event and identifies anomalies based on deviations from the normal execution models trained on EHR sequences.Results: Extensive experiments on large EHR datasets across various medical domains demonstrate that EHR-BERT markedly improves upon existing models. It significantly reduces the number of false positives and enhances the detection rate, thus bolstering the reliability of anomaly detection in electronic health records. This improvement is attributed to the model’s ability to minimize information loss and maximize data utilization effectively.Conclusion: EHR-BERT showcases immense potential in decreasing medical errors related to anomalous clinical events, positioning itself as an indispensable asset for enhancing patient safety and the overall standard of healthcare services. The framework effectively overcomes the drawbacks of earlier models, making it a promising solution for healthcare professionals to ensure the reliability and quality of health data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A business approach to climate adaptation in local communities

Climate change poses risks to the assets and operations of businesses. They can anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to the potential impacts of climate change by focusing on modifying their own internal operations. But businesses can find additional opportunities to adapt by examining their relationships with local governments. Businesses provide critical services to the communities in which they are located, and also benefit from services provided by the local governments. This symbiotic relationship is an important consideration for businesses as they work to adapt to a changing climate. By thinking broadly about how working with local governments can influence their resilience, businesses may be able to uncover additional adaptation opportunities and enhance their adaption efforts in ways they may not be able to achieve on their own. Here, this paper includes two case studies of businesses that pursued adaptation efforts with local, state, or federal government officials to provide real-world context for the symbiotic relationships that exist between the private and public sectors in communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and testing of a continuous maritime monitor for radionuclide aerosols

Monitoring airborne concentrations of radionuclide activity may provide a timely warning to sea-based assets to avoid contamination from a radioactive plume. The development and testing of an automated aerosol monitoring system that can capture and detect radioactive particulate from marine air is presented. A custom electrostatic precipitator (ESP) was designed to capture particulate onto a reusable collection media. The collection efficiency of the ESP system for radon progeny was determined to be ~23%. A conservative calculation of the minimum detectable concentration of 214 Bi was estimated as 0.3-8 Bq/m 3 . The system was demonstrated in continuous operation, without consumables and limited maintenance, in a marine environment at the PNNL campus in Sequim, Washington. In conclusion, a successful 2-month deployment indicates the feasibility of the approach for continuous maritime monitoring for radionuclide aerosols.

Moore, Michael E. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

Multiscale model predictive control of battery systems for frequency regulation markets using physics-based models

In this work, we propose a multiscale model predictive control (MPC) framework for stationary battery systems that exploits high-fidelity models to trade-off short-term economic incentives provided by energy and frequency regulation (FR) markets and long-term degradation effects. We find that the MPC framework can drastically reduce long-term degradation while properly responding to FR and energy market signals (compared to MPC formulations that use low-fidelity models). Our results also provide evidence that sophisticated battery models can be embedded within closed-loop MPC simulations by using modern nonlinear programming solvers (we provide an efficient and easy-to-use implementation in Julia). We use insights obtained with our simulations to design a low-complexity MPC formulation that matches the behavior obtained with high-fidelity models. This is done by designing a suitable terminal penalty term that implicitly captures long-term degradation. The results suggest that complex degradation behavior can be accounted for in low-complexity MPC formulations by properly designing the cost function. We believe that our proof-of-concept results can be of industrial relevance, as battery vendors are seeking to participate in fast-changing electricity markets while maintaining asset integrity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radiative transition probabilities of neutral and singly ionized Europium estimated by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS)

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a versatile technique for compositional analysis for solids, liquids, or gasses. LIBS is an asset for the quantitative or qualitative analysis of resource limited materials like actinides and rare earths because it is quasi-nondestructive. Two Eu 2 O 3 pellets were synthesized to be a test and validation set, respectively. Spectral lines identified from the National Institute of Standards and Technology database with fundamental data reported were used to form Saha-Boltzmann plots. The Saha-Boltzmann plots were used to determine the plasma temperatures and electron densities of the laser-induced plasmas for both samples. These Saha-Boltzmann plots were then used to calculate previously unreported transition probabilities associated with identified peaks. Additionally, the transition probabilities presented in this paper provide the capability for calibration free LIBS to be performed more readily on europium samples and the spectroscopic analysis of stellar bodies. Eight previously unreported transition probabilities are presented in this paper; five for Eu I and three for Eu II. The transition probabilities for Eu I ranged from 0.172 to 7.38 × 10 7 s -1 and those for Eu II ranged from 1.56 to 6.75 × 10 7 s -1 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Omega-Limit Sets and Input-To-State Stability in Power Grids with Switching Equilibria

This paper studies a power transmission system with both conventional generators (CGs) and distributed energy assets (DEAs) providing frequency control. We consider an operating condition with demand aggregating two dynamic components: one that switches between different values on a finite set, and one that varies smoothly over time. Such dynamic operating conditions may result from protection scheme activations, external cyber-attacks, or due to the integration of dynamic loads, such as data centers. Mathematically, the dynamics of the resulting system are captured by a system that switches between a finite number of vector fields - or modes -, with each mode having a distinct equilibrium point induced by the demand aggregation. To analyze the stability properties of the resulting switching system, we leverage tools from hybrid dynamic inclusions and the concept of ..omega.. -limit sets from sets. Specifically, we characterize a compact set that is semi-globally practically asymptotically stable under the assumption that the switching frequency and load variation rate are sufficiently slow. For arbitrarily fast variations of the load, we use a level-set argument with multiple Lyapunov functions to establish input-to-state stability of a larger set and with respect to the rate of change of the loads. The theoretical results are illustrated via numerical simulations on the IEEE 39-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Future energy infrastructure, energy platform and energy storage

Today fossil energy dominates energy consumption across the world. There has been an increasing momentum to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase renewable energy utilization to more than 70%. Such high penetrations of distributed renewable resources bring large uncertainty and complexity that cannot be easily handled by the current infrastructure. For the last two decades, telecommunication industry has gone through a similar transition from centralized to distributed systems, and more recently to platform approaches, which become the corner stone of today’s vibrant platform economy. Based on telecommunication history, we believe that a platform-based approach, called the energy platform, is a viable solution for addressing the renewable energy challenges. The energy platform consists of an array of computational algorithms, sensing and control technologies for key industry, energy generators and users to jointly manage and control the complex energy infrastructure. It includes the following key components: (1) the hardware and software to generate, store, control and transmit electricity/data (the energy cloud), (2) the digital platforms and tools for key energy producers, digital, service and communication industry to share the assets, participate in and manage the complex infrastructure, and for customers to participate in energy transactions, (3) the transaction platform for new service and business models. Additionally, the energy platform requires breakthroughs in large scale energy storage and many other areas including efficient power electronics, sensors and controls, new mathematical and computational tools, and deep integration of energy technologies and information sciences to control and stabilize such complex chaotic systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗