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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Economic, Exergy, and Environmental Analyses of the Energy Assessments for U.S. Industries

Abstract This paper highlights the expected versus actual outcomes of 152 energy assessments that were performed between 2011 and 2020. The 1317 energy-assessment recommendations (ARs) are grouped into eight categories. This study adopted four measures per each category of recommendations: annual electricity savings, annual gas savings, annual cost savings, and annual CO2 emission reduction. The first part of the analysis compares the expected to the actually implemented values of the measures applied to each recommendation’s category. It was found that the percentages of the actual to the expected electricity, gas, and cost savings are 26.6%, 11.4%, and 17.1%, respectively, while the percentage of the actual to the expected CO2 reduction is 22%. Moreover, the second part of the analysis presents each category's implementation rate and the reasons for rejecting the unimplemented ARs. Cash flow and expensive initial investment resulted in rejecting 25% of ARs. Furthermore, the study proposes techniques and strategies to increase ARs’ implementation rate and improve private energy services companies’ implementation rate. Finally, exergy analysis is added to show the improvement that energy assessment achieves regarding exergy and exergy efficiencies of different industrial applications.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contrasting effects of bioenergy crops on biodiversity

Agriculture is driving biodiversity loss, and future bioenergy cropping systems have the potential to ameliorate or exacerbate these effects. Using a long-term experimental array of 10 bioenergy cropping systems, we quantified diversity of plants, invertebrates, vertebrates, and microbes in each crop. For many taxonomic groups, alternative annual cropping systems provided no biodiversity benefits when compared to corn (the business-as-usual bioenergy crop in the United States), and simple perennial grass–based systems provided only modest gains. In contrast, for most animal groups, richness in plant-diverse perennial systems was much higher than in annual crops or simple perennial systems. Microbial richness patterns were more eclectic, although some groups responded positively to plant diversity. Future agricultural landscapes incorporating plant-diverse perennial bioenergy cropping systems could be of high conservation value. However, increased use of annual crops will continue to have negative effects, and simple perennial grass systems may provide little improvement over annual crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal and CO 2 -Induced Shifts of the ITCZ: Testing Energetic Controls in Idealized Simulations with Comprehensive Models

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble—a multimodel ensemble of slab-ocean simulations in idealized configurations—provides a test of the relationship between the zonal mean ITCZ and the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transports (AHT eq ). In a gross sense, the ITCZ position is linearly related to AHT eq , as expected from the energetic framework. Yet, in many aspects, the TRACMIP model simulations do not conform to the framework. Throughout the annual cycle there are large excursions in the ITCZ position unrelated to changes in the AHT eq and, conversely, substantial variations in the magnitude of the AHT eq while the ITCZ is stationary at its northernmost position. Variations both in the net vertical energy input at the ITCZ location and in the vertical profile of ascent play a role in setting the model behavior apart from the conceptual framework. Nevertheless, a linear fit to the ITCZ–AHT eq relationship captures a substantial fraction of the seasonal variations in these quantities as well as the intermodel or across-climate variations in their annual mean values. The slope of the ITCZ–AHT eq linear fit for annual mean changes across simulations with different forcings and configurations varies in magnitude and even sign from model to model and we identify variations in the vertical profile of ascent as a key factor. A simple sea surface temperature–based index avoids the complication of changes in the vertical structure of the atmospheric circulation and provides a more reliable diagnostic for the ITCZ position.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins

Comparison and quantification of different uncertainties of future climate change involved in the modeling of a hydrological system are highly important for both hydrological modelers and policy-makers. However, few studies have accurately estimated the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, a hierarchical sensitivity analysis framework (HSAF) incorporated with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is developed to quantify the spatiotemporal contributions of different uncertainties in hydrological impacts of climate change in two different climatic (humid and semiarid) basins in China. The uncertainty sources include three emission scenarios (ESs), 20 global climate models (GCs), three hydrological models (HMs), and the associated sensitive hydrological parameters (PAs) screened and sampled by the Morris and Latin hypercube sampling methods, respectively. Further, the results indicate that the overall trend of uncertainty is PA > HM > GC > ES, but their uncertainties have discrepancies in projections of different hydrological variables. The HM uncertainty in annual and monthly discharge projections is generally larger than the PA uncertainty in the humid basin than semiarid basin. The PA has greater uncertainty in extreme hydrological event (annual peak discharge) projections than in annual discharge projections for both basins (particularly for the humid basin), but contributes larger uncertainty to annual and monthly discharge projections in the semiarid basin than humid basin. The GC contributes larger uncertainty in all the hydrological variables projections in the humid basin than semiarid basin, while the ES uncertainty is rather limited in both basins. Overall, our results suggest there is greater spatiotemporal variability of hydrological uncertainty in more arid regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Household Transportation Energy Affordability by Region and Socioeconomic Factors

Transportation fuel is an important component of household budgets, as 3.3% of total household expenditures are for vehicle fuel nationwide and over 50% of annual household expenditures on energy are for transportation. These average values vary geographically, and higher energy cost burdens are faced by households with lower incomes. Defining transportation energy affordability burden as the percentage of annual household income spent on vehicle fuel, this study aims to quantify affordability as a function of household characteristics and geography. Here, through analysis at the census tract level, this study (i) projects annual household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) based on demographic factors using machine-learning techniques, (ii) estimates local differences in vehicle fuel economy and fuel price, and (iii) quantifies resulting transportation energy affordability by census tract. This study found that the average burden by tract varies from 0.15% to 8%. The variation in affordability can be largely explained by income level and vehicle fuel efficiency. Suburban and rural households spend more on transportation energy compared with urban households because of the usage of less fuel-efficient vehicle technologies and higher annual VMT. Lower-income groups have a wide distribution of the percentage of income spent on transportation energy, 1.2% to 8%, whereas the range for the highest income group ($125,000+) is from 0.15% to 3.9%. This detailed transportation energy affordability analysis provides a better understanding of regional variations in household travel behavior, helps to determine where fuel-efficient vehicle technologies are more likely to be used, and improves estimates of vehicle ownership costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cumulative effects of piscivorous colonial waterbirds on juvenile salmonids: A multi predator-prey species evaluation

We investigated the cumulative effects of predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds on the survival of multiple salmonid ( Oncorhynchus spp.) populations listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and determined what proportion of all sources of fish mortality (1 –survival) were due to birds in the Columbia River basin, USA. Anadromous juvenile salmonids (smolts) were exposed to predation by Caspian terns ( Hydroprogne caspia ), double-crested cormorants ( Nannopterum auritum ), California gulls ( Larus californicus ), and ring-billed gulls ( L . delawarensis ), birds known to consume both live and dead fish. Avian consumption and survival probabilities (proportion of available fish consumed or alive) were estimated for steelhead trout ( O . mykiss ), yearling Chinook salmon ( O . tshawytscha ), sub-yearling Chinook salmon, and sockeye salmon ( O . nerka ) during out-migration from the lower Snake River to the Pacific Ocean during an 11-year study period (2008–2018). Results indicated that probabilities of avian consumption varied greatly across salmonid populations, bird species, colony location, river reach, and year. Cumulative consumption probabilities (consumption by birds from all colonies combined) were consistently the highest for steelhead, with annual estimates ranging from 0.22 (95% credible interval = 0.20–0.26) to 0.51 (0.43–0.60) of available smolts. The cumulative effects of avian consumption were significantly lower for yearling and sub-yearling Chinook salmon, with consumption probabilities ranging annually from 0.04 (0.02–0.07) to 0.10 (0.07–0.15) and from 0.06 (0.3–0.09) to 0.15 (0.10–0.23), respectively. Avian consumption probabilities for sockeye salmon smolts was generally higher than for Chinook salmon smolts, but lower than for steelhead smolts, ranging annually from 0.08 (0.03–0.22) to 0.25 (0.14–0.44). Although annual consumption probabilities for birds from certain colonies were more than 0.20 of available smolts, probabilities from other colonies were less than 0.01 of available smolts, indicating that not all colonies of birds posed a substantial risk to smolt mortality. Consumption probabilities were lowest for small colonies and for colonies located a considerable distance from the Snake and Columbia rivers. Total mortality attributed to avian consumption was relatively small for Chinook salmon (less than 10%) but was the single greatest source of mortality for steelhead (greater than 50%) in all years evaluated. Results suggest that the potential benefits to salmonid populations of managing birds to reduce smolt mortality would vary widely depending on the salmonid population, the species of bird, and the size and location of the breeding colony.

Evans, Allen F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Canopy tree mortality and crown exposure data from the Amacayacu Forest Dynamics Plot, Northwestern Amazon

Data on the mortality of 984 canopy trees, their crown exposure to light (relative to total crown area), growth deviations (relative to conspecifics), tree size, and species’ wood density collected between 2013 and 2019 in 18 ha of the Amacayacu Forest Dynamics Plot, Northwestern Amazon. This dataset contains a single CSV data file. Variable definitions: 1. Species: [character] species identification 2. Family: [character] family of the species 3. tag: [character] unique consecutive for the tree 4. status: [character] status of the tree in the third census (ALIVE or DEAD) 5. wsg: [numeric]: species’ wood density (g cm-3) 6. growth_r1: [numeric]: annual growth rate of the tree between the first and second census (cm y-1) 7. growth_r2: [numeric]: annual growth rate of the tree between the second and third census (cm y-1) 8. gt1: [numeric] modulus transformed growth rate with a lambda of 0.4 for the annual growth rate of the tree between the first and second census (cm y-1) 9. gt2: [numeric]: modulus transformed growth rate with a lambda of 0.4 for the annual growth rate of the tree between the second and third census (cm y-1) 10. rgr1: [numeric] relative growth rate between the first and second census (cm y-1) 11. rgr2: [numeric] relative growth rate between the second and third census (cm y-1) 12. sa_gt: [numeric] species-adjusted modulus transformed growth rate 13. sa_rgr: [numeric] species-adjusted relative growth rate 14. gr_n: [numeric] number of individuals of the species used to calculate the mean and species modulus transformed growth rate 15. dbh_flight: [numeric] diameter at breast height (1.3 m) estimated at the time of the drone flight (cm) 16. eca: [numeric] exposed crown area calculated as the area of the crown polygon delineated in the orthomosaic (m2) 17. total_ca: [numeric] total crown area estimated from a crown area model (m2) 18. rcel: [numeric] relative crown exposure to light (m2) 19. time_flight_census3: [numeric] time in years from the drone flight date to the third census for that tree (yr)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local Power: Comparing County-Level Renewable Energy Potential to Consumption Using the SLOPE Platform

Wide-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. Many communities have ambitious clean energy goals with targets for locally generated renewable energy. To inform state and local clean energy planning, analysts from the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) used data from NREL's State and Local Planning for Energy (SLOPE) platform to compare annual technical generation potential of renewable energy technologies to modeled electricity consumption in every county of the contiguous United States. Annual costs were calculated to produce a 20% share of electricity consumed annually from each technology to examine localized cost effectiveness of a diversified mix of generation sources. For example, combining distributed and utility-scale wind and solar generation can offset the need for storage and nonintermittent fossil resources to achieve high deployment of renewables. This county-level analysis provides insight into where localized renewable energy generation could cost-effectively match annual electricity consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States

The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Site A and Plot M 2023 Surveillance Report and 2024 Inspection Report

This report is prepared for the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (DOE-LM) by the Worker Safety & Environment (WSE) Division at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Beginning in 2024, Argonne drafted a combined report containing the annual inspection results for the current year and the annual surveillance data/discussion from the previous year. The annual inspection results will be contained within an appendix at the end of the surveillance report. The results of the environmental monitoring program at Site A and Plot M and an assessment of the impact of the site on the environment and the public are presented in this publication as well as findings and assigned corrective actions as a result of the Site A/Plot M annual inspection. Funding to support this program was provided by DOE-LM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Rooftop Solar Potential in Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, and Efficacy of High-Resolution 3D Data Digital Twins [Slides]

NREL evaluated rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) siting opportunities in the cities of Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, leveraging very-high-resolution 3D elevation data to calculate technical potential. The study assessed total rooftop solar capacity and annual energy production. In Chernihiv and Lviv, 116,503 buildings were analyzed for their rooftop solar potential. The buildings in the study areas include a mixture of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, characterized by diverse roof shapes and sizes. The total estimated rooftop solar capacity is 332 MWDC in Chernihiv and 873 MWDC in Lviv with annual energy production up to 376.2 GWhDC in Chernihiv and 995.5 GWhDC in Lviv. This accounting provides a clear estimate of the potential rooftop solar installations that could be realized under optimal conditions, considering both technical constraints and the geographic distribution of available rooftop space. Related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NREL estimates loss from buildings damaged or destroyed of 2,754 buildings, 20.15 MWDC of capacity, and 22,869 MWhDC of annual energy production in Chernihiv as well as a loss of 1,316 buildings, 34.49 MWDC of capacity, and 39,369 MWhDC of annual energy production in Lviv. The study also assessed the feasibility of adapting this methodology on a national scale using either simulated digital surface models (DSMs) or a digital twin approach. While the very-high-resolution DSM provided more precise results, the simulated DSM demonstrated reasonable accuracy for broader applications in modeling aggregated distributed solar supply. The feasibility of using a digital twin for Ukraine's national rooftop solar potential is considered promising, with certain limitations in areas with highly variable building stock and heavy war damage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reevaluation of Radiation-Protection Standards for Workers and the Public Based on Current Scientific Evidence

President Trump’s recent executive orders to “Usher in a Nuclear Renaissance,” coupled with the global pledge to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050, underscore nuclear energy’s importance to national security and economic prosperity. This renewed interest has prompted efforts to spur nuclear-energy deployment, including assessing factors impeding it. One issue that has previously been identified as adding to the cost of nuclear energy is excessively conservative requirements, including those related to radiation protection. This technical review, therefore, examines current radiation-protection standards that were established decades ago when more limited data were available and nuclear-energy expansion was not a national priority. The review focuses on scientific evidence regarding the health effects of ionizing radiation at annual doses of 10,000 mrem or less. The review evaluates epidemiological studies, radiobiological research, and positions of relevant professional organizations to assess whether such doses result in discernable or observable increases in negative health outcomes. The review also surveys the literature related to economic and practical implications of current radiation-protection standards and practices. Based on this assessment, we propose maintaining an annual occupational whole-body dose limit of 5,000 mrem/yr and eliminating all “as low as reasonably achievable” requirements and limits below this threshold. This change could potentially reduce radiation-protection costs by millions of dollars annually for each reactor, as well as decrease the overall costs and correct misconceptions about the risks associated with all nuclear technologies. The evidence further supports future consideration of a 10,000 mrem/yr limit that would maintain appropriate safety margins while further reducing protection costs. Similarly, given the data and that the average annual radiation dose per person in the U.S. is 620 mrem, we believe the public dose limits of 100 mrem/yr are unnecessarily restrictive; increasing to 500 mrem/yr would maintain substantial safety margins—a factor of 10 below the occupational limit—while reducing regulatory burdens and associated bureaucracy. While we acknowledge ongoing scientific debate and encourage continued research on the health effects of ionizing radiation, our review indicates current frameworks are overly conservative. These overly stringent limits not only impose unnecessary economic burdens without corresponding health benefits but also divert safety focus and resources from more important considerations. Although this study was motivated by nuclear-power considerations, reforms to radiation-protection requirements have significant positive implications for other areas, such as nuclear medical applications, environmental remediation, nuclear-waste management and disposal, and industrial applications of nuclear technologies.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synergistic Integration of Multiple Wave Energy Converters with Adaptive Resonance and Offshore Floating Wind Turbines through Bayesian Optimization

We developed a synergistic ocean renewable system where an array of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) with adaptive resonance was collocated with a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT) such that the WECs, capturing wave energy through the resonance adapting to varying irregular waves, consequently reduced FOWFT loads and turbine motions. Combining Surface-Riding WECs (SR-WEC) individually designed to feasibly relocate their natural frequency at the peak of the wave excitation spectrum for each sea state, and to obtain the highest capture width ratio at one of the frequent sea states for annual average power in a tens of kilowatts scale with a 15 MW FOWT based on a semi-submersible, Bayesian Optimization is implemented to determine the arrangement of WECs that minimize the annual representation of FOWT’s wave excitation spectra. The time-domain simulation of the system in the optimized arrangement is performed, including two sets of interactions: one set is the wind turbine dynamics, mooring lines, and floating body dynamics for FOWT, and the other set is the nonlinear power-take-off dynamics, linear mooring, and individual WECs’ floating body dynamics. Those two sets of interactions are further coupled through the hydrodynamics of diffraction and radiation. For sea states comprising Annual Energy Production, we investigate the capture width ratio of WECs, wave excitation on FOWT, and nacelle acceleration of the turbine compared to their single unit operations. We find that the optimally arranged SR-WECs reduce the wave excitation spectral area of FOWT by up to 60% and lower the turbine’s peak nacelle acceleration by nearly 44% in highly occurring sea states, while multiple WECs often produce more than the single operation, achieving adaptive resonance with a larger wave excitation spectra for those sea states. The synergistic system improves the total Annual Energy Production (AEP) by 1440 MWh, and we address which costs of Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) can be reduced by the collocation.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Shifts in Vegetation Phenology on the Carbon Balance of a Semiarid Sagebrush Ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are critical in regulating the interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The responses of such ecosystems to weather and environmental conditions remain important factors that limit the accurate projections of carbon balance under future climate change. Here, we investigated how shifts in vegetation phenology resulting from changes in weather and environmental conditions influenced ecosystem carbon cycling in one semiarid ecosystem in the Hanford area of central Washington, United States. We examined two years of measurements of the phenology camera, eddy covariance, and soil chamber from an upland semiarid sagebrush ecosystem. Both years had contrasting diel and seasonal patterns of CO 2 fluxes, primarily driven by differences in vegetation phenology. The net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) in 2019 were enlarged by shifted vegetation phenology, as a cold and snow-covered winter and warm and dry winter in 2020 resulted in constrained magnitudes of NEE and ET during the summer months. The annual gross primary productivity (GPP) was much higher in 2019 than in 2020 (-211 vs. -112 gC m -2 ), whereas ecosystem respiration was comparable in these two years (164 vs. 144 gC m -2 ). Thus, the annual NEE in 2019 was negative (-47 gC m -2 ) with the sagebrush ecosystem functioning as a carbon sink, while the positive annual NEE in 2020 indicated that the sagebrush ecosystem functioned as a carbon source. Our results demonstrate that winter snowpack can be a critical driver of annual carbon uptake in semiarid sagebrush ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗