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At least 883 records · Page 49

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Correlation approach for quality assurance of additive manufactured parts based on optical metrology

Surface topography and surface finish are two significant factors for evaluating the quality of products in additive manufacturing (AM). AM parts are fabricated layer by layer, which is quite different from traditional formative or subtractive methods. Despite rapid progress in additive manufacturing and associated optical metrology for quality control and in-situ monitoring, limited research has been conducted to investigate the reliability of 3D surface measurement data. The surface topologies scanned by multiple optical systems demonstrated significant differences due to varying sampling mechanisms, resolutions, system noises, etc. The 3D datasets should be trustworthy in order to extract parameters for quality assurance or feedback control from 3D surface measurements. In this paper, we set up new standards to evaluate the reliability of 3D surface measurement data and analyze the variation in the topographical profile. In this study, two non-contact optical methods based on Focus Variation Microscopy (FVM) and Structured Light System (SLS) were adopted to measure the surface topography of the target components. The two optical metrology systems generated two entirely different point cloud datasets. Statistical methods were applied to test the difference between the data obtained from the two systems. By using a data analytics approach for comparison, it was found that the surface roughness estimated from the point cloud data sets of FVM and SLS has no significant difference, though the point cloud data sets were completely different. This paper provides standard validation approach to evaluate the plausibility of metrology data from in-situ real-time surface analysis for process planning of AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization

In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterizing the Variation and Covariation of Cloud Microphysical Properties and Implications for Simulation of Subgrid-scale Warm-Rain Processes in Earth System Models (Final DOE-ASR Report)

Warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds constitute an important component in the global climate system, and precipitation plays a central role in controlling the water budget, radiative effects, and lifetime of these MBL clouds. Unfortunately, because of the relatively coarse effective grid resolution of the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs), the variety of cloud microphysical processes occurring inside an ESM grid cell are often oversimplified or unconstrained by observations. For example, the warm rain processes (e.g., autoconversion and accretion) are usually parameterized as nonlinear functions of grid-mean cloud properties. Because of the nonlinear nature of these functions, neglecting variability within the ESM grid volume can lead to substantial biases in precipitation production, cloud cover, and surface radiative fluxes. In state-of-the art ESMs, the influence of subgrid-scale variability is represented as an enhancement factor (EF) coefficient to the autoconversion, and accretion rates calculated from the model variables. However, EF is typically taken to be a constant or even used as a knob to tune model cloud properties to match observations, an ad hoc approach that may yield a desired cloud outcome yet introduce compensating errors. In this project, we used the combination of in situ cloud microphysics measurements from the ACE-ENA field campaign and large-eddy simulations (LES) to characterize and understand subgrid-scale variations and co-variations of cloud microphysical properties and use the results to evaluate and improve the representation of subgrid warm-rain processes in ESMs, in particular the EF used to tune the autoconversion and accretion processes. In this final report, we summarize our research activities and main findings in Section 2, provide a list of publications (Section 3) and presentations (Section 4) resulted from our research, and briefly discuss the student activities supported by this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MHz free electron laser x-ray diffraction and modeling of pulsed laser heated diamond anvil cell

A new diamond anvil cell experimental approach has been implemented at the European x-ray Free Electron Laser, combining pulsed laser heating with MHz x-ray diffraction. In this report we use this setup to determine liquidus temperatures under extreme conditions, based on the determination of time-resolved crystallization. The focus is on a Fe-Si-O ternary system, relevant for planetary cores. This time-resolved diagnostic is complemented by a finite-element model, reproducing temporal temperature profiles measured experimentally using streaked optical pyrometry. This model calculates the temperature and strain fields by including (i) pressure and temperature dependencies of material properties, and (ii) the heat-induced thermal stress, including feedback effect on material parameter variations. Making our model more realistic, these improvements are critical as they give 7000 K temperature differences compared to previous models. Laser intensities are determined by seeking minimal deviation between measured and modeled temperatures. Combining models and streak optical pyrometry data extends temperature determination below detection limit. The presented approach can be used to infer the liquidus temperature by the appearance of SiO 2 diffraction spots. In addition, temperatures obtained by the model agree with crystallization temperatures reported for Fe–Si alloys. Our model reproduces the planetary relevant experimental conditions, providing temperature, pressure, and volume conditions. Those predictions are then used to determine liquidus temperatures at experimental timescales where chemical migration is limited. This synergy of novel time-resolved experiments and finite-element modeling pushes further the interpretation capabilities in diamond anvil cell experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stress-hybrid virtual element method on six-noded triangular meshes for compressible and nearly-incompressible linear elasticity

In this paper, we present a first-order Stress-Hybrid Virtual Element Method (SH-VEM) on six-noded triangular meshes for linear plane elasticity. Here, we adopt the Hellinger–Reissner variational principle to construct a weak equilibrium condition and a stress based projection operator. In each element, the stress projection operator is expressed in terms of the nodal displacements, which leads to a displacement based formulation. This stress-hybrid approach assumes a globally continuous displacement field while the stress field is discontinuous across each element. The stress field is initially represented by divergence-free tensor polynomials based on Airy stress functions, but we also present a formulation that uses a penalty term to enforce the element equilibrium conditions, referred to as the Penalty Stress-Hybrid Virtual Element Method (PSH-VEM). Numerical results are presented for PSH-VEM and SH-VEM, and we compare their convergence to the composite triangle FEM and B-bar VEM on benchmark problems in linear elasticity. The SH-VEM converges optimally in the L 2 norm of the displacement, energy seminorm, and the L 2 norm of hydrostatic stress. Furthermore, the results reveal that PSH-VEM converges in most cases at a faster rate than the expected optimal rate, but it requires the selection of a suitably chosen penalty parameter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TurboRVB: A many-body toolkit for ab initio electronic simulations by quantum Monte Carlo

TurboRVB is a computational package for ab initio Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulations of both molecular and bulk electronic systems. The code implements two types of well established QMC algorithms: Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) and diffusion Monte Carlo in its robust and efficient lattice regularized variant. A key feature of the code is the possibility of using strongly correlated many-body wave functions (WFs), capable of describing several materials with very high accuracy, even when standard mean-field approaches [e.g., density functional theory (DFT)] fail. The electronic WF is obtained by applying a Jastrow factor, which takes into account dynamical correlations, to the most general mean-field ground state, written either as an antisymmetrized geminal power with spin-singlet pairing or as a Pfaffian, including both singlet and triplet correlations. This WF can be viewed as an efficient implementation of the so-called resonating valence bond (RVB) Ansatz, first proposed by Pauling and Anderson in quantum chemistry [L. Pauling, The Nature of the Chemical Bond (Cornell University Press, 1960)] and condensed matter physics [P.W. Anderson, Mat. Res. Bull 8, 153 (1973)], respectively. The RVB Ansatz implemented in TurboRVB has a large variational freedom, including the Jastrow correlated Slater determinant as its simplest, but nontrivial case. Moreover, it has the remarkable advantage of remaining with an affordable computational cost, proportional to the one spent for the evaluation of a single Slater determinant. Therefore, its application to large systems is computationally feasible. The WF is expanded in a localized basis set. Several basis set functions are implemented, such as Gaussian, Slater, and mixed types, with no restriction on the choice of their contraction. The code implements the adjoint algorithmic differentiation that enables a very efficient evaluation of energy derivatives, comprising the ionic forces. Thus, one can perform structural optimizations and molecular dynamics in the canonical NVT ensemble at the VMC level. For the electronic part, a full WF optimization (Jastrow and antisymmetric parts together) is made possible, thanks to state-of-the-art stochastic algorithms for energy minimization. In the optimization procedure, the first guess can be obtained at the mean-field level by a built-in DFT driver. The code was efficiently parallelized by using a hybrid MPI-OpenMP protocol, which is also an ideal environment for exploiting the computational power of modern Graphics Processing Unit accelerators.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Contextual subspace variational quantum eigensolver calculation of the dissociation curve of molecular nitrogen on a superconducting quantum computer

Abstract We present an experimental demonstration of the Contextual Subspace Variational Quantum Eigensolver on superconducting hardware. Calculating the potential energy curve of molecular nitrogen proves challenging for many conventional quantum chemistry techniques, since static correlation dominates in the dissociation limit. Our quantum simulations retain good agreement with the Full Configuration Interaction energy, outperforming all benchmarked single-reference wavefunction techniques in capturing the bond-breaking appropriately. Moreover, our methodology is competitive with multiconfigurational approaches but at a saving of quantum resource, meaning larger active spaces can be treated for a fixed qubit allowance. To achieve this result, we deploy an error mitigation/suppression strategy comprised of Dynamical Decoupling, Measurement-Error Mitigation and Zero-Noise Extrapolation. Circuit parallelization also provides passive noise-averaging and improves the effective shot yield to reduce the measurement overhead. Furthermore, we introduce a modified adaptive ansatz construction algorithm that incorporates hardware awareness into our variational circuits, minimizing the transpilation cost for the target qubit topology.

Physics↗

Conditioned quantum-assisted deep generative surrogate for particle-calorimeter interactions

Particle collisions at accelerators like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), recorded by experiments such as ATLAS and CMS, enable precise standard model measurements and searches for new phenomena. Simulating these collisions significantly influences experiment design and analysis but incurs immense computational costs, projected at millions of CPU-years annually during the high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) phase. Currently, simulating a single event with Geant4 consumes around 1000 CPU seconds, with calorimeter simulations especially demanding. To address this, we propose a conditioned quantum-assisted generative model, integrating a conditioned variational autoencoder (VAE) and a conditioned restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). Our RBM architecture is tailored for D-Wave’s Pegasus-structured advantage quantum annealer for sampling, leveraging the flux bias for conditioning. This approach combines classical RBMs as universal approximators for discrete distributions with quantum annealing’s speed and scalability. We also introduce an adaptive method for efficiently estimating effective inverse temperature, and validate our framework on Dataset 2 of CaloChallenge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Superconductivity in undoped BaFe 2 As 2 by tetrahedral geometry design

Fe-based superconductors exhibit a diverse interplay between charge, orbital, and magnetic ordering. Variations in atomic geometry affect electron hopping between Fe atoms and the Fermi surface topology, influencing magnetic frustration and the pairing strength through changes of orbital overlap and occupancies. Here, we experimentally demonstrate a systematic approach to realize superconductivity without chemical doping in BaFe 2 As 2 , employing geometric design within an epitaxial heterostructure. We control both tetragonality and orthorhombicity in BaFe 2 As 2 through superlattice engineering, which we experimentally find to induce superconductivity when the As−Fe−As bond angle approaches that in a regular tetrahedron. This approach to superlattice design could lead to insights into low-dimensional superconductivity in Fe-based superconductors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer pairing of composite fermions

Topological pairing of composite fermions has led to remarkable ideas, such as excitations obeying non-Abelian braid statistics and topological quantum computation. Here, we construct a p-wave paired Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) wave function for composite fermions in the torus geometry, which is a convenient geometry for formulating momentum space pairing as well as for revealing the underlying composite-fermion Fermi sea. Following the standard BCS approach, we minimize the Coulomb interaction energy at half filling in the lowest and the second Landau levels, which correspond to filling factors ν = 1/2 and ν = 5/2 in GaAs quantum wells, by optimizing two variational parameters that are analogous to the gap and the Debye cut-off energy of the BCS theory. Our results show no evidence for pairing at ν = 1/2 but a clear evidence for pairing at ν = 5/2. To a good approximation, the highest overlap between the exact Coulomb ground state at ν = 5/2 and the BCS state is obtained for parameters that minimize the energy of the latter, thereby providing support for the physics of composite-fermion pairing as the mechanism for the 5/2 fractional quantum Hall effect. We discuss the issue of modular covariance of the composite-fermion BCS wave function, and calculate its Hall viscosity and pair correlation function. By similar methods, we look for but do not find an instability to s-wave pairing for a spin-singlet composite-fermion Fermi sea at half-filled lowest Landau level in a system where the Zeeman splitting has been set to zero.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Source Authentication of Distribution Synchrophasors for Cybersecurity of Microgrids

This letter proposes a hybrid approach combining Self-Adaptive Mathematical Morphology (SAMM) and Time-Frequency (TF) techniques to authenticate the source information of Distribution Synchrophasors (DS) within near-range locations. The SAMM can adaptively regulate the synchrophasors variations which are representatives of local environmental characteristics. Subsequently, TF mapping is employed to extract informative signatures from the regulated synchrophasors variation. Finally, Random Forest Classification (RFC) is used to correlate the extracted signatures with the source information based on the derived TF mapping. Experiment results using DS collected at multiple small geographical scales validated the proposed methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Feasibility Study for Disposal Control Rod Assemblies Using UNF-ST&DARDS As-Loaded Zion Dual Purpose Cask Models

This report documents an initial evaluation to support future use of disposal control rod assemblies (DCRAs) for post-closure criticality control in dual purpose canisters (DPCs). The work described herein is an extension of previous efforts performed by Walker using inputs generated by the Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNFST&DARDS) for the Zion site DPCs with as-loaded isotopic compositions. The results of this analysis demonstrate that there are multiple pathways to using DCRA for post-closure criticality control. Various configurations of DCRA material, diameter, number of rods per DCRA, and number and location of DCRAs within a DPC were shown to be effective in varying degrees for the set of DPCs analyzed by Walker. Because of the variations in DPC as-loaded isotopic compositions considered in an array of DCRA parametric sweeps, it can be concluded that a DPC-specific methodology is feasible (i.e., a one-size-fits-all approach may not be needed). Instead, the utility program created for this work can be expanded to develop capabilities to provide DPC-specific DCRA arrangements to limit cost and weight and to allow for operational considerations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Recent work such as Omnijet-$\alpha$ has demonstrated that effective tokenization combined with transformer-based architectures can produce effective foundation models for jet physics. While tokenization may help models capture generalizable event characteristics, it also introduces discretization errors that may compromise the precision required for downstream physics analyses. As the number and complexity of the particle features grow, these errors are likely to grow proportionally. In this study, we investigate new tokenization strategies to improve the application of generative transformer models to \textsc{Pythia8} simulations of electron-proton scattering at the Electron-Ion Collider. Specifically, we propose a feature-based structured tokenization approach that utilizes multiple tokens per particle, improving expressivity, while reducing the total number of unique tokens needed. We evaluate this method against grid-based binning, K-means clustering, and vector-quantized variational auto-encoders on the event simulations. Our results show that feature-based structured tokenization reduces discretization error, leading to more accurate generative modeling of particle-level events.

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Recent work such as Omnijet-$\alpha$ has demonstrated that effective tokenization combined with transformer-based architectures can produce effective foundation models for jet physics. While tokenization may help models capture generalizable event characteristics, it also introduces discretization errors that may compromise the precision required for downstream physics analyses. As the number and complexity of the particle features grow, these errors are likely to grow proportionally. In this study, we investigate new tokenization strategies to improve the application of generative transformer models to \textsc{Pythia8} simulations of electron-proton scattering at the Electron-Ion Collider. Specifically, we propose a feature-based structured tokenization approach that utilizes multiple tokens per particle, improving expressivity, while reducing the total number of unique tokens needed. We evaluate this method against grid-based binning, K-means clustering, and vector-quantized variational auto-encoders on the event simulations. Our results show that feature-based structured tokenization reduces discretization error, leading to more accurate generative modeling of particle-level events.

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗