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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airborne Lidar Measurements of Ozone and Aerosol Profiles Over Major US Metropolitan Areas

During field missions in 2021 and 2023, the airborne NASA Langley Research Center High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL 2) measured the temporal and spatial evolution of ozone and aerosol distributions impacting urban air quality over the four most populated cities in the United States. HSRL-2 measurements in 2021 were acquired over the Houston metropolitan region, including Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel, as part of the NASA Tracking Aerosol Convection Experiment – Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) mission conducted in collaboration with the Department of Energy. HSRL-2 measurements were acquired over Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York City in 2023 as part of the NASA Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) mission conducted in collaboration with the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) mission. HSRL 2 provided nadir vertical profiles of ozone, aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization as the aircraft flew lawnmower type patterns at 9 km for several hours over these urban areas. HSRL-2 measured profiles of aerosol extinction and aerosol optical depth (AOD) via the HSRL technique at 355 and 532 nm and profiles of aerosol backscatter and depolarization at 355, 532, and 1064 nm. Mixed Layer Heights (MLH) were derived by locating sharp vertical gradients in the profiles of aerosol backscatter. The flights were comprised of up to three repeating lawnmower patterns over each city showing the evolution of the ozone and aerosol distributions from the morning through the afternoon. The HSRL-2 measurements reveal ozone enhancements near the surface as well as in the free troposphere above the mixed layer. Some lidar measurements over Chicago and New York City show the daytime boundary layer growing into elevated layers of biomass burning aerosol. These layers complicate efforts to use column-integrated satellite measurements to infer surface air quality. As expected, mixed layer height (MLH) typically increased significantly during the day; however, during some flights, particularly over the Houston area, MLH also showed large spatial variability associated with changes in surface cover and/or small scale circulations. Often HSRL-2 measurements of AOD also showed large spatial and temporal variability throughout the day over these cities. We discuss how the ozone and aerosol profiles are averaged over different vertical and horizontal scales near the surface for use in assessments of regional air quality models and near-surface ozone retrievals from NASA’s recently launched Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO) satellite.

Lidar↗