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At least 883 records · Page 49
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NASA NTRS1991

Ocean circulation using altimetry

Our group has been very actively involved in promoting satellite altimetry as a unique tool for observing ocean circulation and its variability. TOPEX/POSEIDON is particularly interesting as it is optimized for this purpose. It will probably be the first instrument really capable of observing the seasonal and interannual variability of subtropical and polar gyres and the first to eventually document the corresponding variability of their heat flux transport. The studies of these phenomena require data of the best quality, unbiased extraction of the signal, mixing of these satellite data with in situ measurements, and assimilation of the whole set into a dynamic description of ocean circulation. Our group intends to develop responses to all these requirements. We will concentrate mostly on the circulation of the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans: This will be done in close connection with other groups involved in the study of circulation of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, in the altimetry measurements (in particular, those of the tidal issue), and in the techniques of data assimilation in ocean circulation models.

Minster, Jean-Francois↗
NASA NTRS2004

Research on the Natural Variability of Climate

The scheme for ocean vertical mixing presented in Canuto, Howard, Cheng & Dubovikov and Canuto, Howard, Hogan, Cheng, Dubovikov & Montenegro [GISS mixing scheme] was extended to include the latitudinal dependence reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel of the input to the interior ocean turbulence field of energy from internal waves. The resulting latitude dependence was implemented in our module of code for the GISS vertical mixing scheme and tested in the global NCAR-CSM ocean model with 3 degree X 3 degree resolution and 25 levels in the vertical. With the latitude dependence, the background diffusivity decreases from approx. 0.1 sq cm/sec at midlatitudes to approx. less than 0.01 sq cm/sec at the equator. A significant improvement was seen in the tropical ocean, with tropical thermoclines being sharpened in agreement with the requirements of observational studies and the needs of ENS0 modeling. At the same time global measures nf performance such as the meridional overturning and northward heat transport were not adversely affected. Results were presented at the 2004 Layered Ocean Modeling meeting and a paper has been prepared and submitted to Geophysical Research Letters.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1974

Variability of the observed temperature, 20-60 km at 80 deg N to 40 deg S

Results are presented for a periodic analysis of atmospheric temperature variations at heights of from 20 to 60 km between 80 deg N and 40 deg S. The analysis is based on Meteorological Rocket Network temperatures not corrected for solar radiation or aliasing by the diurnal tide, and the frequencies examined include the long-term mean, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the first six harmonics of the annual wave. Amplitudes are plotted for the long-term mean and QBO as well as for the annual, semiannual, and terannual components. The results show two distinct annual oscillations (the high-latitude one and another above the tropical stratopause) and a polar semiannual wave with two centers of large amplitude that are 90 deg out of phase and separated by a zone of minimum amplitude near 45 km.

Nastrom, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Exceptional Warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January through March of 2020: The Roles of Unforced and Forced Modes of Atmospheric Variability

Much of northern Eurasia experienced record high temperatures during the first three months of 2020, and the eastern United States experienced a significant heat wave during March. In this study, we show that the above episodes of extraordinary warmth reflect to a large extent the unusual persistence and large amplitude of three well-known modes of atmospheric variability: the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. We employ a “replay” approach in which simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM are constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over specified regions of the globe in order to identify the underlying forcings and regions that acted to maintain these modes well beyond their typical submonthly time scales. We show that an extreme positive AO played a major role in the surface warming over Eurasia, with forcing from the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions acting to maintain its positive phase. Forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic regions produced positive NAO-like responses, contributing to the warming over eastern North America and Europe. The strong heat wave that developed over eastern North America during March was primarily associated with an extreme negative PNA that developed as an instability of the North Pacific jet, with tropical forcing providing support for a prolonged negative phase. A diagnosis of the zonally symmetric circulation shows that the above extratropical surface warming occurred underneath a deep layer of tropospheric warming, driven by stationary eddy-induced changes in the mean meridional circulation.

Northern Hemisphere↗
NASA NTRS1993

The implementation and validation of improved land-surface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

New land-surface hydrologic parameterizations are implemented into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: 1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid-scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface and 2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water and root sink in the soil column. A one-dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three-dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new land-surface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics, is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show similar improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and land-surface) scale to the zonal, continental, and finally the regional river basin scales.

Johnson, Kevin D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predictability of Seasonal Means in the NSIPP-1 AGCM

The predictability of seasonal means during 1980-99 is examined from 720 seasonal integrations with version 1 of NASA's Seasonal to Interanual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM is the atmospheric (and land) component of the NSIPP fully-coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these runs, the initial atmospheric conditions are taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice are specified from observations. Results from the northern winter integrations show that the model has a very realistic El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in both the tropics and extratropics. Early results from the northern summer runs show a robust extratropical ENSO response in the Southern Hemisphere Pacific, as well as, a pronounced zonally-symmetric component to the ENSO response in both hemispheres. Results will be presented at the meeting highlighting the seasonal evolution in predictability and skill of the NSIPP model on both global and regional scales. A further analysis of the zonally-symmetric response will be discussed in terms of its potential impact on the predictability of middle-latitude climate variability on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1999

Properties of QBO and SAO Generated by Gravity Waves

We present an extension for the 2D (zonal mean) version of our Numerical Spectral Mode (NSM) that incorporates Hines' Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small scale gravity waves (GW). This model is applied to describe the seasonal variations and the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO). Our earlier model reproduced the salient features of the mean zonal circulation in the middle atmosphere, including the QBO extension into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. In the present model we incorporate also tropospheric heating to reproduce the upwelling at equatorial latitudes associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation that affects significantly the dynamics of the stratosphere as Dunkerton had pointed out. Upward vertical winds increase the period of the QBO observed from the ground. To compensate for that, one needs to increase the eddy diffusivity and the GW momentum flux, bringing the latter closer to values recommended in the DSP. The QBO period in the model is 30 months (mo), which is conducive to synchronize this oscillation with the seasonal cycle of solar forcing. Multi-year interannual oscillations are generated through wave filtering by the solar driven annual oscillation in the zonal circulation. Quadratic non-linearities generate interseasonal variations to produce a complicated pattern of variability associated with the QBO. The computed temperature amplitudes for the SAO and QBO are in substantial agreement with observations at equatorial and extratropical latitudes. At high latitudes, however, the observed QBO amplitudes are significantly larger, which may be a signature of propagating planetary waves not included in the present model. The assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium not being imposed, we find that the effects from the vertical Coriolis force associated with the equatorial oscillations are large for the vertical winds and significant for the temperature variations even outside the tropics but are relatively small for the zonal winds.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

simulations↗
NASA NTRS2003

Retrieval of Precipitation Profiles from Multiresolution, Multifrequency, Active and Passive Microwave Observations

In this study, a technique for estimating vertical profiles of precipitation from multifrequency, multiresolution active and passive microwave observations is investigated. The technique is applicable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations and it is based on models that simulate high-resolution brightness temperatures as functions of observed reflectivity profiles and a parameter related to the rain drop-size-distribution. The modeled high-resolution brightness temperatures are used to determine normalized brightness temperature polarizations at the microwave radiometer resolution. An optimal estimation procedure is employed to minimize the differences between the simulated and observed normalized polarizations by adjusting the drop-size-distribution parameter. The impact of other unknowns that are not independent variables in the optimal estimation but affect the retrievals is minimized through statistical parameterizations derived from cloud model simulations. The retrieval technique is investigated using TRMM observations collected during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). These observations cover an area extending from 5 deg to deg N latitude and 166 deg to 172 deg E longitude from July to September 1999, and are coincident with various ground-based observations, facilitating a detailed analysis of the retrieved precipitation. Using the method developed in this study, precipitation estimates consistent with both the passive and active TRMM observations are obtained. Various parameters characterizing these estimates, i.e. the rain rate, the precipitation water content, the drop-size-distribution intercept, and the mass weighted mean drop diameter, are in good qualitative agreement with independent experimental and theoretical estimates. Combined rain estimates are in general higher than the official TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) only estimates for the area and the period considered in the study. Ground-based precipitation estimates, derived from an analysis of rain gauge and ground radar data, are in better agreement with the combined estimates than with the TRMM PR-only estimates, which suggests that information useful for improving the radar-only estimates is contained in the brightness temperature data.

Grecu, Mircea↗
NASA NTRS2004

Diurnal, Seasonal, and Interannual Variations of Cloud Properties Derived for CERES From Imager Data

Simultaneous measurement of the radiation and cloud fields on a global basis is a key component in the effort to understand and model the interaction between clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, at the surface, and within the atmosphere. The NASA Clouds and Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project, begun in 1998, is meeting this need. Broadband shortwave (SW) and longwave radiance measurements taken by the CERES scanners at resolutions between 10 and 20 km on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Terra, and Aqua satellites are matched to simultaneous retrievals of cloud height, phase, particle size, water path, and optical depth OD from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Besides aiding the interpretation of the broadband radiances, the CERES cloud properties are valuable for understanding cloud variations at a variety of scales. In this paper, the resulting CERES cloud data taken to date are averaged at several temporal scales to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the cloud properties on a global scale at a 1 resolution.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Interannual Climate Variability on Water Availability and Productivity in Capoeira and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of capoeira. is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and agriculture more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through (1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and (2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (moto mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and agricultural fields are susceptible to extreme climate events (drought) under contrasting landuse/clearing practices.

Guild, Liane S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variance and Predictability of Precipitation at Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

A series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, spanning a total of several thousand years, is used to assess the impact of land-surface and ocean boundary conditions on the seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability of precipitation in a coupled modeling system. In the first half of the analysis, which focuses on precipitation variance, we show that the contributions of ocean, atmosphere, and land processes to this variance can be characterized, to first order, with a simple linear model. This allows a clean separation of the contributions, from which we find: (1) land and ocean processes have essentially different domains of influence, i.e., the amplification of precipitation variance by land-atmosphere feedback is most important outside of the regions (mainly in the tropics) that are most affected by sea surface temperatures; and (2) the strength of land-atmosphere feedback in a given region is largely controlled by the relative availability of energy and water there. In the second half of the analysis, the potential for seasonal-to-interannual predictability of precipitation is quantified under the assumption that all relevant surface boundary conditions (in the ocean and on land) are known perfectly into the future. We find that the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation imposes fundamental limits on predictability in many extratropical regions. Associated with this result is an indication that soil moisture initialization or assimilation in a seasonal-to-interannual forecasting system would be beneficial mainly in transition zones between dry and humid regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Nighttime Cirrus Detection using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Window Channels and Total Column Water Vapor

A method of cirrus detection at nighttime is presented that utilizes 3.8 and 10.4 (micro)m infrared (IR) window brightness temperature differences (dBT) and total column precipitable water (PW) measurements. This technique is applied to the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) instrument suite on board EOS-Aqua, where dBT is determined from sets of carefully selected AIRS window channels, while PW is derived from the synergistic AIRS and AMSU-A water vapor retrievals. Simulated and observed dBT for a particular value of PW are not constant; several physical factors impact dBT, including the variability in temperature and relative humidity profiles, surface emissivity, instrument noise, and skin/ near-surface air temperature differences. We simulate clear-sky dBT over a realistic range of PWs using 8350 radiosondes that have varying temperature and relative humidity profiles. Thresholds between cloudy and uncertain sky conditions are derived once the scatter in the clear-sky dBT is determined. Simulations of optically thin cirrus indicate that this technique is most sensitive to cirrus optical depth in the 10 (micro)m window of 0.1-0.15 or greater over the tropical and subtropical oceans, where surface emissivity and skin/near-surface air temperature impacts on the IR radiances are minimal. The method at present is generally valid over oceanic regions only, specifically, the tropics and subtropics. The detection of thin cirrus, and other cloud types, is validated using observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program site located at Manus Island in the tropical western Pacific for 89 coincident EOS-Aqua overpasses. Even though the emphasis of this work is on the detection of thin cirrus at nighttime, this technique is sensitive to a broad cloud morphology. The cloud detection technique agrees with ARM-detected clouds 82-84% of the time, which include thin cirrus, as well as other cloud types. Most of the disagreements are well explained by AIRS footprint-scale heterogeneity compared to ARM point measurements, cirrus overlying lower-layer water clouds, possible mixed phase microphysics in midlevel clouds, and significant IR channel noise for cold BT scenes over deep convective towers.

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (RAM)↗
NASA NTRS2000

South American Summer Monsoon of 1997/1998 and 1998/1999

It is well known that during El Nino years severe drought occurs in the area of Amazon and northeastern Brazil. According to the linear model result the reduced latent heating over the Amazon may lead to a weaker than normal upper tropospheric Bolivian high. As a result, some studies have suggested a weaker South American summer monsoon (SASM) during El Nino years. Using re-analysis. Zhou and Lau data found a statistically significant positive correlation between the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the strength of low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the tropical-subtropical Andes. Douglas also showed a strong LLJ at Santa Cruz, Bolivia during a special pilot balloon observation period in 1997/98 El Nino austral summer. Since this LLJ is an integral part of the monsoon system in the summertime, these results indicated that SASM could be stronger than normal in El Nino years. To clarify this issue, we conducted an investigation on SASM anomaly in the recent ENSO event of 1997/98 El Nino and 1998/99 La Nina In the following we first give a brief review on SASM and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over South America. Then, the impact of 1997-99 ENSO on the South American regional thermal structure and its dynamical consequences to SASM will be discussed.

Lau, William K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improving Carbon Estimation of Large Tropical Trees by Linking Airborne Lidar Crown Size to Field Inventory

Quantifying tropical aboveground biomass (agb) is an outstanding challenge that requires knowledge on the 3D structure of forests. Recent studies suggest that the uncertainty in estimating agb of large trees is significantly reduced if tree height and crown size are accounted for in addition to the traditional trunk diameter and wood density. Due to the fact that field inventory techniques are not adapted to characterize the 3D forest structure, crown size metrics (e.g. height and radius) are commonly estimated as a function of trunk diameter using allometric models with limitations in explaining crown variability. Airborne lidar techniques have the potential for characterizing tree height and crown size but are not adapted to estimate trunk diameter, which is a strong predictor of agb. Here, we investigate the synergy of field inventory and airborne lidar techniques to characterize the forest structure by assessing the uncertainty introduced by the field-based allometric models in the estimation of agb at the tree-level. We focus in 1454 large individual trees (trunk diameter > 60 cm) located within the La Selva Biological Station for which we dispose of field observations (trunk diameter and wood density) and lidar derived metrics (tree height and crown radius). We show that the field-based allometric models overestimate tree height and underestimate crown radius. As a result, the allometric approach overestimates the tree-level agb in 0.8 Mg when considering the 1454 individuals and the errors can reach more than 50% of the agb of individual trees. These errors on the large trees agb highly impact on the plot-level results and then propagate to the estimation of carbon stocks at the regional and national-levels.

Clark, David↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Comparison of the Diurnal Variation of Rainfall in the LBA Area Derived from Satellite Infrared Observations and Raingages

In this paper we will present results from the application of a satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating rainfall over northern South America. Our main objectives are to examine the diurnal variability of rainfall and to investigate the relative contributions from the convective and stratiform components. Estimates for Jan-Apr. 1999 will be presented for a large (30 by 50 degree) area that includes the Amazon Basin and the LBA (Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) study area. An analysis of the LBA raingage has begun, and results from the analysis of the gage-derived diurnal cycle will be compared to the satellite estimates. Also, we hope to perform a comparison of results with LBA case studies of mesoscale convective systems using TOGA (Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere) and S-bands radars. Future calibration of the IR technique using rain estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) is anticipated.

Negril, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗