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At least 883 records · Page 49

Predicting distribution of malaria vector larval habitats in Ethiopia by integrating distributed hydrologic modeling with remotely sensed data

Abstract Larval source management has gained renewed interest as a malaria control strategy in Africa but the widespread and transient nature of larval breeding sites poses a challenge to its implementation. To address this problem, we propose combining an integrated high resolution (50 m) distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed data to simulate potential malaria vector aquatic habitats. The novelty of our approach lies in its consideration of irrigation practices and its ability to resolve complex ponding processes that contribute to potential larval habitats. The simulation was performed for the year of 2018 using ParFlow-Common Land Model (CLM) in a sugarcane plantation in the Oromia region, Ethiopia to examine the effects of rainfall and irrigation. The model was calibrated using field observations of larval habitats to successfully predict ponding at all surveyed locations from the validation dataset. Results show that without irrigation, at least half of the area inside the farms had a 40% probability of potential larval habitat occurrence. With irrigation, the probability increased to 56%. Irrigation dampened the seasonality of the potential larval habitats such that the peak larval habitat occurrence window during the rainy season was extended into the dry season. Furthermore, the stability of the habitats was prolonged, with a significant shift from semi-permanent to permanent habitats. Our study provides a hydrological perspective on the impact of environmental modification on malaria vector ecology, which can potentially inform malaria control strategies through better water management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Maui PSCAD Model: Motivation, Methodology, and Lessons Learned: Preprint

As power systems become increasingly dependent on inverter-based resources, the dominant physical and control interactions that determine system stability may no longer be accurately captured in positive sequence dynamic simulation tools; electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations may be needed. This paper describes the process of creating and validating an EMT model of the entire Maui island transmission system in PSCAD software. The model is validated against the utility's PSSE model and against field data for an event that consisted of a single-phase fault followed by a generation trip. The methodology and lessons learned are summarized here.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Networked HIL Simulation System for Modeling Large-scale Power Systems

This paper presents a network hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system for modeling large-scale power systems. Researchers have developed many HIL test systems for power systems in recent years. Those test systems can model both microsecond-level dynamic responses of power electronic systems and millisecond-level transients of transmission and distribution grids. By integrating individual HIL test systems into a network of HIL test systems, we can create large-scale power grid digital twins with flexible structures at required modeling resolution that fits for a wide range of system operating conditions. This will not only significantly reduce the need for field tests when developing new technologies but also greatly shorten the model development cycle. In this paper, we present a networked OPAL-RT based HIL test system for developing transmission-distribution coordinative Volt-VAR regulation technologies as an example to illustrate system setups, communication requirements among different HIL test systems, and connection mechanisms. Impacts of communication delays, information exchange cycles, and computing delays are illustrated. Simulation results show that the performance of a networked HIL test system is satisfactory.

digital twin, distribution system, co-simulation, ↗

Predicting multiphase flow and tracer transport for an underground chemical explosive test

Detecting radionuclide gas seepage from clandestine underground nuclear tests is central to nonproliferation explosion monitoring research. Yet, early-time (<6 day) gas transport driven by the explosive pressure wave remains poorly constrained due to scarcity of field data. We simulate multi-phase gas transport in the vadose zone using pre-shot data from a recent chemical explosion in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, USA. Despite using a simplified 2D-radial model, predictions of tracer arrival matched observations within one order-of-magnitude. Our results show how transient blast forcing rapidly mobilizes gases from the cavity into surrounding rock – critical for optimizing sensor placement and test planning. This unique integration of field data and modeling represents a significant improvement in our ability to predict gas migration from underground explosions. More broadly, it offers insights into the coupled dynamics of pressure waves and contaminant transport in the vadose zone, with implications for monitoring and hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interplay Between Crustal‐Scale Thrusting, High Metamorphic Heating Rates, and the Development of Inverted Thermal‐Metamorphic Gradients: Numerical Models and Examples From the Caledonides of Northern Scotland

Abstract Understanding the processes that produce high prograde metamorphic heating rates and the development of inverted metamorphic sequences in collisional thrust belts remains a fundamental challenge for tectonics and metamorphic petrology. New 2D finite element models of crustal‐scale thrusts with variable slip rates (10, 20, 35, 50 km Myr −1 ) are used to examine how thrust sheet emplacement contributes to these processes. In the models, average prograde heating rates of 31–118 °C Myr −1 are observed in the footwall, with maximum transient heating rates of ∼167 °C Myr −1 occurring at the highest slip rate. Also, thrust sheet emplacement produces an inverted thermal gradient in the model footwall. At slip rates of 10 km Myr −1 , heating magnitudes >200 °C are observed >7 km structurally beneath the thrust plane. At slip rates of 20–50 km Myr −1 , models produce thermal penetration depths of 4–5 km for similar heating magnitudes. Petrologically determined heating rates for thrust footwalls in the Scandian orogenic wedge of northern Scotland mostly yield rates consistent with model results (10–230 °C Myr −1 ). The model‐derived magnitude of inverted thermal gradients is also similar to those indicated in texturally determined deformation temperature transects across the Scandian orogenic wedge (100 °C–180 °C). Combined, these results indicate that high heating rates can be produced by fault slip at typical plate velocities. Additionally, this implies that crustal‐scale thrusts are likely to produce inverted metamorphic sequences in most systems, provided that P‐T conditions during slip allow for metamorphic or recrystallization processes that would preserve evidence for such features.

Thigpen, J. Ryan↗

Validation of Combined Analytical Methods to Predict Slip in Cylindrical Roller Bearings

This paper presents a combination of models that together calculate the cage and roller speeds of a cylindrical roller bearing. The models consider elastohydrodynamic lubrication and contact elasticity between the roller and raceway, roller centrifugal forces, hydrodynamic lubrication at the cage pocket, and frictional forces. Using these models, the predicted cage and roller speeds and the extent of slip are compared to measurements acquired on cylindrical roller bearings in a commercial gearbox in steady-state and transient operating conditions of a wind turbine. In steady-state conditions at low wind speeds and low lubricant temperatures, cage and roller slip up to 60% occur in the loaded zone of the bearing. In the unloaded zone, up to 80% roller slip occurs. Cage and roller slip then decrease as the lubricant temperature and wind speed increases. In general, the analytical model results match experimental measurements within 10% for lubricant temperatures above 40 degrees C and wind speeds over 10 meters per second. The analytical model is further evaluated during a transient start-up event and highly dynamic emergency stop event and also used to examine changes in the bearing design or lubricant properties. Furthermore, roller and cage slip in cylindrical bearings is a combined effect of the bearing design, applied load, shaft speed, and lubricant properties and temperature, and can be quickly evaluated with the combined analytical models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Approximation of refrigerant thermophysical properties using neural networks to speed up transient thermofluid simulations

Accurate and efficient evaluations of refrigerant thermophysical properties and their partial derivatives are essential for transient simulations of thermofluid systems, where several computations need to be executed at each integration time step. Since the utilization of an Equation of State for retrieving properties based on a pair of independent inputs typically involves numerical iterations in solution procedures, when the input variables differ from the refrigerant state variables employed in dynamic models, a variety of approaches including lookup table interpolation and curve fitting have been developed to explicitly approximate these properties based on the state variables, and consequently eliminate internal iterations. This paper presents an alternative method that exploits derivative-informed neural networks to model refrigerant properties explicitly from inputs of pressure and enthalpy, while ensuring consistent partial derivatives generated by differentiating the neural networks. Computational speed and accuracy of the proposed approach are demonstrated via transient simulations of a discretized heat exchanger model in Modelica, and comparisons against other property evaluation routines. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can realize a significant speedup with negligible discrepancies in predicted transients. The method is implemented in an open-source Modelica library.

Ma, Jiacheng↗

Linking Transient Voltage to Spatially-Resolved Luminescence Imaging to Understand Reliability of Perovskite Photovoltaics

In this work, we present a methodology to separate effects of perovskite device metastability from irreversible degradation, using stress/rest cycling under constant current bias while collecting a series of electroluminescence images and continuously monitoring voltage. We develop a simulation model and procedures for image processing to better understand the effects of ion parameters on the transient nature of voltage and evolving electroluminescence images.

electroluminescence↗

Gas-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. The reference plant models have been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, which is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analysis. It incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of the work that was performed was to assess BlueCRAB’s level of readiness for modeling a PB-HTGR. To do so, we first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology to ensure an adequate level of fidelity for modeling PB-HTGR core performance and for performing multiphysics simulations for equilibrium core conditions and different accident scenarios. Then we simulated transient scenarios, including depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling accidents, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events with delayed and prompt supercritical reactivity insertions. The analysis in this report includes comparisons of the 2D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, and comparisons of coupled SAM/Griffin/SAM and coupled Pronghorn/Griffin for depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events. In addition, we compare 3D, 2D, and 0D/PKE neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with coupled Pronghorn/Griffin. The comparisons show that the BlueCRAB models lead to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields, such as neutron flux, power, temperature, density, pressure, and velocity, are within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained by the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. This work further highlights the need for flexible tools with various levels of fidelity to cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations of the PB-HTGR. We believe that the BlueCRAB capabilities will be a significant asset for confirmatory analyses in order to resolve important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Neutronics and Thermo-Fluids Simulation of Generic Pebble-Bed Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor

The fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) is one of the advanced reactors that has been attracting considerable interest from both the research community and the nuclear industry. To help facilitate the nuclear community's familiarity with the FHR, Kairos Power has developed a generic FHR (gFHR) benchmark. In the research performed here, this benchmark was used to assess innovative modeling methods that combine stochastic and deterministic computer codes to perform the design and analysis of the gFHR. Further, the Monte Carlo code Serpent 2 was used to generate few-group cross sections that were then used in the neutron diffusion and thermal-fluids code AGREE to perform full-core neutronics and thermal-fluids steady-state and transient core analysis. The Argonne National Laboratory code SAM was then used to model the gFHR system and to simulate the load-follow operation of the gFHR.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Internal Model-Based Active Damping Strategy for a Back-to-Back Modular Multilevel Converter System for Advanced Grid Support: Preprint

The proposed work focuses on the possibility of achieving the reduction in the size of the interfacing filter for the grid connection for a back-to-back modular multilevel converter system with the use of third order LCL filters. To achieve the same attenuation, it is possible to reduce the size of the interfacing filters by the usage of third order filters. However, this kind of filtering comes with the limitation of having sustained oscillations due to lack of damping especially during transient changes. Therefore, in this work, a methodology has been proposed based on the principle of internal model to cater for this unwanted oscillations. The third order system is modeled inside the microcontroller with the damping enabled. The error between the output from the model and the actual are compared and the error is utilized to accomplish the active damping strategy. The proposed architecture is verified via computer simulations based on MATLAB/Simulink domain and various case study results along with their discussion is presented in this paper.

dq control↗

Dislocation theory of steady and transient creep of crystalline solids: Predictions for olivine

In applications critical to the geological, materials, and engineering sciences, deformation occurs at strain rates too small to be accessible experimentally. Instead, extrapolations of empirical relationships are used, leading to epistemic uncertainties in predictions. To address these problems, we construct a theory of the fundamental processes affecting dislocations: storage and recovery. We then validate our theory for olivine deformation. This model explains the empirical relationships among strain rate, applied stress, and dislocation density in disparate laboratory regimes. It predicts the previously unexplained dependence of dislocation density on applied stress in olivine. The predictions of our model for Earth conditions differ from extrapolated empirical relationships. For example, it predicts rapid, transient deformation in the upper mantle, consistent with recent measurements of postseismic creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning

Fengyun-4A (FY-4A), which is the latest-generation Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite, measures solar reflection and thermal emission with high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. It is expected to be highly beneficial for solar resource assessment and forecasting in China. This study is the first to estimate, using FY-4A and a random forest model, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a 4-km–15-min spatio-temporal resolution over China, as a means to arrive at a solar photovoltaic (PV) resource map. In terms of GHI estimates, the root mean square error and mean bias error between hourly measured and retrieved values are 147.02 (35.2%), –5.64 W/m 2 (–1.4%), respectively, whereas the values of daily estimates are 29.20 (18.0%), –2.97 W/m 2 (–1.3%). The retrieval accuracy is found much better for instances with solar zenith angles smaller than 60°. Relatively larger errors are found at locations in the Sichuan Basin and northeastern China, which can be attributed to bright surfaces and/or strong cloud transients. With the retrieved irradiance, PV resource is derived through a physical model chain. The annual mean PV resource map suggests that, over most of the west areas, the annual mean effective irradiance exceeds 1700 kWh/m 2 , with the highest value found in Tibet (around 2000 kWh/m 2 per annum). Eastern China has an annual effective irradiance of only 1300–1500 kWh/m 2 . In conclusion, the region with poorest solar resource is the Sichuan Basin (less than 1100 kWh/m 2 per annum).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Data trustworthiness signatures for nuclear reactor dynamics simulation

With the increased reliance on digitization in industrial control systems, the need for effective monitoring techniques has risen dramatically. Specifically, there is now a growing concern about the so-called false data injection (FDI) attacks. These attacks aim to alter the raw sensors’ data to cause malicious outcomes. Any serious FDI algorithm is based on an intimate knowledge of the system and its associated physics models, which renders conventional outlier/anomaly detection techniques almost obsolete in the face of such attacks. Thus, a critical need has emerged to develop a new class of defense methods that are capable of detecting FDI attacks under the assumption that the attacker has a strong familiarity with the system and its physics modeling. This class of defense methods are denoted by model-based defenses which are premised on the assumption that the attacker, while having a good understanding of the system, does not have full privileged access to all proprietary data and historical records of operation. However, (s)he is assumed to be capable of learning system behavior using self-learning techniques during an initial lie-in-wait period. To defend against this scenario, we propose a new model-based randomized window algorithm that searches time-series data for signatures that can serve as classifiers between normal and FDI scenarios. The classifiers are based on the correlations between the dominant degrees of freedom (DOFs) and the less-dominant DOFs (expected to be very sensitive to the system details that are unknown to the attacker). For demonstration, RELAP5 models are employed to calculate representative nuclear reactor behavior during a number of transient scenarios. Finally, falsified data are injected into the RELAP5-simulated behavior, and the proposed signature-identification algorithm is employed to detect the injected data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Automated Parameterized CFD Simulations of Phase-Change Material Embedded Heat Exchangers

Thermal storage can be implemented using Phase-Change Materials (PCM), which absorb significant latent heat with a relatively small temperature change. PCM phase-change processes are transient and are driven by thermal diffusion and natural convection – the latter, especially for melting process. Modeling and simulation of PCM heat exchangers is typically computationally intensive due to the relative complex time-dependent underlying physics. This paper presents a study investigating a single straight tube with circular transverse fins in the vertical orientation, using PCM’s with 37oC nominal melting temperature, leveraging automated parametric CFD simulations. The computational domain is reduced to 2D axisymmetric for a segment of the HX comprising a region in between two fins with constant wall temperature as boundary condition. This approach allows for faster evaluations of the transient thermal characteristics for a given design space of interest. Correlations and reduced order models (ROM’s) are developed. Results indicate that the ROM’s reproduce the CFD simulations with high accuracy for designs from the training data set, however, designs from cross-validation and test sets do not always have good agreement. The limited number of designs in the training set is a possible cause for the lack of robustness of the ROM’s and thus additional training designs will be added in future work. The ROM’s solve the simulations on average 500,000 times faster than CFD.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Multiobjective Dynamic Optimization for Optimal Load-Following of Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants under Stress Constraints

With the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the electric grid, there is an associated need for conventional thermal power plants that are designed to operate at base-load conditions to cycle their load rapidly and frequently and operate under low-load conditions. Fast load-following operations lead to plant efficiency loss and the reduction of equipment life. A high-fidelity dynamic model of a natural gas combined cycle power plant, with rigorous equipment level submodels, is developed to capture the plant transient performance and the thermomechanical stress evolution at the high-pressure drum is computed to assess the drum life consumption. Stress evolution is modeled for the location of the edge at the drum/downcomer junction that experiences high circumferential stress amplitude during the fast load-following operation, leading to higher fatigue damage than locations considered under existing design standards. A dynamic optimization problem is solved for optimal load-following operation. Depending on the value of the stress constraint and the desired ramp rate, satisfying the desired stress constraint may be infeasible without relaxing the ramp rate. A multiobjective dynamic optimization problem is solved using a lexicographic approach that minimizes ramp rate relaxation and maximizes efficiency while satisfying stress constraints, avoiding spraying to saturation, and maintaining main steam and reheat steam temperature within bounds. It was observed that the optimal ramp rate can be highly nonlinear as opposed to the industry-standard linear ramp rate. Nonlinear optimal ramp-rate profiles not only help to avoid stress constraints that may be unavoidable by using the linear profile but also result in higher efficiency than the linear profile. Furthermore, the study shows that there is a strong tradeoff between the relaxation in the plant ramp rate and the time-average thermal efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Full-core high-burnup BWR LOCA fuel performance analysis and FFRD susceptibility

The susceptibility of the boiling water reactor (BWR) Limerick Unit 1 to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal during a postulated large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) was calculated using a multiphysics framework. The simulations include full-core, rod-resolved neutronic, thermal hydraulic, and fuel performance models using the VERA, TRACE, and BISON codes. This work focused on the transient BISON simulations, which include both the normal operation and LBLOCA periods in the same simulations. Cladding integrity was assessed using two correlations that are included with BISON. make page break Several new BWR-specific features were recently added to BISON. This work represents the first time these features have been included in a core-scale set of simulations. This study hence evaluates the performance of these new models for an operating reactor with realistic operating conditions. Simulation results showed that cladding integrity was maintained (i.e., no rods burst). Finally, future work to improve BWR and PWR predictions using this framework is suggested.

BISON↗

Understanding ERE and iVOC Metrics for Graded CdSeTe Absorbers

PL-based external radiative efficiency (ERE) and implied open-circuit voltage (iVOC) metrics were introduced for thin-film solar absorbers to better understand the voltage deficit and diagnose losses in solar cells. Traditionally, elevated ERE and iVOC measurements are associated with diminished recombination within the solar device, a rationale heavily reliant on the assumption of a uniform bandgap and high carrier mobilities in the absorber. Recently, very low mobilities in CdSeTe absorbers (< 1 cm2/(V.s)) were measured using the light-induced transient grading technique. In this study, we use a detailed numerical model of iVOC to investigate the possible reasons of elevated iVOC in realistic CdSeTe absorbers with a graded Se profile. In particular, we examine how the bandgap nonuniformity and the reduced hole mobility in graded CdSeTe absorbers affect iVOC measurements. We show that high iVOC may result from inflated quasi-Fermi level splitting in the high-Se region in the front part of a CdSeTe absorber with slow hole transport. We reproduce the experimentally reported 360 mV increase in iVOC-VOC gap with reduced doping using a model with sub-1 cm2/(V.s) hole mobility in the high-Se region. Based on our results, we conclude that the iVOC metric (or ERE metric) should not be used as a sole metric of CdSeTe absorber quality. We discuss possible ways to extract useful information from the iVOC-VOC gap by supplementing the front-side illumination measurements with back-side illumination measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗