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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Convergence of statistical moments of particle density time series in scrape-off layer plasmas

Particle density fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas, as measured by gas-puff imaging or Langmuir probes, are modeled as the realization of a stochastic process in which a superposition of pulses with a fixed shape, an exponential distribution of waiting times, and amplitudes represents the radial motion of blob-like structures. With an analytic formulation of the process at hand, we derive expressions for the mean squared error on estimators of sample mean and sample variance as a function of sample length, sampling frequency, and the parameters of the stochastic process. Employing that the probability distribution function of a particularly relevant stochastic process is given by the gamma distribution, we derive estimators for sample skewness and kurtosis and expressions for the mean squared error on these estimators. Numerically, generated synthetic time series are used to verify the proposed estimators, the sample length dependency of their mean squared errors, and their performance. We find that estimators for sample skewness and kurtosis based on the gamma distribution are more precise and more accurate than common estimators based on the method of moments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Unbiased simulation of near-Clifford quantum circuits

Modeling and simulation are essential for predicting and verifying the behavior of fabricated quantum circuits, but existing simulation methods are either impractically costly or require an unrealistic simplification of error processes. In this paper, we present a method of simulating noisy Clifford circuits that is both accurate and practical in experimentally relevant regimes. In particular, the cost is weakly exponential in the size and the degree of non-Cliffordness of the circuit. Our approach is based on the construction of exact representations of quantum channels as quasiprobability distributions over stabilizer operations, which are then sampled, simulated, and weighted to yield unbiased statistical estimates of circuit outputs and other observables. As a demonstration of these techniques, we simulate a Steane [[7,1,3]]-encoded logical operation with non-Clifford errors and compute its fault tolerance error threshold. Finally, we expect that the method presented here will enable studies of much larger and more realistic quantum circuits than was previously possible.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Using computer-extracted image features for modeling of error-making patterns in detection of mammographic masses among radiology residents

Purpose: Mammography is the most widely accepted and utilized screening modality for early breast cancer detection. Providing high quality mammography education to radiology trainees is essential, since excellent interpretation skills are needed to ensure the highest benefit of screening mammography for patients. The authors have previously proposed a computer-aided education system based on trainee models. Those models relate human-assessed image characteristics to trainee error. In this study, the authors propose to build trainee models that utilize features automatically extracted from images using computer vision algorithms to predict likelihood of missing each mass by the trainee. This computer vision-based approach to trainee modeling will allow for automatically searching large databases of mammograms in order to identify challenging cases for each trainee. Methods: The authors’ algorithm for predicting the likelihood of missing a mass consists of three steps. First, a mammogram is segmented into air, pectoral muscle, fatty tissue, dense tissue, and mass using automated segmentation algorithms. Second, 43 features are extracted using computer vision algorithms for each abnormality identified by experts. Third, error-making models (classifiers) are applied to predict the likelihood of trainees missing the abnormality based on the extracted features. The models are developed individually for each trainee using his/her previous reading data. The authors evaluated the predictive performance of the proposed algorithm using data from a reader study in which 10 subjects (7 residents and 3 novices) and 3 experts read 100 mammographic cases. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) methodology was applied for the evaluation. Results: The average area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the error-making models for the task of predicting which masses will be detected and which will be missed was 0.607 (95% CI,0.564-0.650). This value was statistically significantly different from 0.5 (p < 0.0001). For the 7 residents only, the AUC performance of the models was 0.590 (95% CI,0.537-0.642) and was also significantly higher than 0.5 (p = 0.0009). Therefore, generally the authors’ models were able to predict which masses were detected and which were missed better than chance. Conclusions: The authors proposed an algorithm that was able to predict which masses will be detected and which will be missed by each individual trainee. This confirms existence of error-making patterns in the detection of masses among radiology trainees. Furthermore, the proposed methodology will allow for the optimized selection of difficult cases for the trainees in an automatic and efficient manner.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

MC{sup 2}: Constraining the dark matter distribution of the violent merging galaxy cluster CIZA J2242.8+5301 BY piercing through the milky way

The galaxy cluster CIZA J2242.8+5301 at z = 0.19 is a merging system with a prominent (∼2 Mpc long) radio relic, which together with the morphology of the X-ray emission provides strong evidence for a violent collision along the north-south axis. We present our constraints on the dark matter distribution of this unusual system using Subaru and Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope imaging data. Measuring a high signal-to-noise ratio lensing signal from this cluster is potentially a challenging task because of its proximity to the Milky Way plane (|b| ∼ 5°). We overcome this challenge with careful observation planning and systematics control, which enables us to successfully map the dark matter distribution of the cluster with high fidelity. The resulting mass map shows that the mass distribution of CIZA J2242.8+5301 is highly elongated along the north-south merger axis inferred from the orientation of the radio relics. Based on our mass reconstruction, we identify two sub-clusters, which coincide with the cluster galaxy distributions. We determine their masses using Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis by simultaneously fitting two Navarro-Frenk-White halos without fixing their centroids. The resulting masses of the northern and southern systems are M{sub 200}=11.0{sub −3.2}{sup +3.7}×10{sup 14} M{sub ⊙} and 9.8{sub −2.5}{sup +3.8}×10{sup 14} M{sub ⊙}, respectively, indicating that we are witnessing a post-collision of two giant systems of nearly equal mass. When the mass and galaxy centroids are compared in detail, we detect ∼1' (∼190 kpc) offsets in both northern and southern sub-clusters. After investigating the statistical significance of the offsets by bootstrapping both mass and galaxy centroids, we find that the galaxy luminosity-mass offset for the northern clump is statistically significant at the ≳ 2σ level whereas the detection is only marginal for the southern sub-cluster in part because of a relatively large mass centroid error. We conclude that it is yet premature to uniquely attribute the galaxy-mass misalignment to self-interaction of dark matter and discuss caveats.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Kinetic isotope effects significantly influence intracellular metabolite 13 C labeling patterns and flux determination

Rigorous mathematical modeling of carbon-labeling experiments allows estimation of fluxes through the pathways of central carbon metabolism, yielding powerful information for basic scientific studies as well as for a wide range of applications. However, the mathematical models that have been developed for flux determination from 13 C labeling data have commonly neglected the influence of kinetic isotope effects on the distribution of 13 C label in intracellular metabolites, as these effects have often been assumed to be inconsequential. We have used measurements of the 13 C isotope effects on the pyruvate dehydrogenase enzyme from the literature to model isotopic fractionation at the pyruvate node and quantify the modeling errors expected to result from the assumption that isotope effects are negligible. We show that under some conditions kinetic isotope effects have a significant impact on the 13 C labeling patterns of intracellular metabolites, and the errors associated with neglecting isotope effects in 13 C-metabolic flux analysis models can be comparable in size to measurement errors associated with GC–MS. Thus, kinetic isotope effects must be considered in any rigorous assessment of errors in 13 C labeling data, goodness-of-fit between model and data, confidence intervals of estimated metabolic fluxes, and statistical significance of differences between estimated metabolic flux distributions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistics of Density, Temperature and Air Gaps on the TATB Cylinder Test

In this paper, duplicate cylinder tests (CYLEX) have been run on PBX 9502 and LX-17. The 95 % error in the absolute value of the derived detonation energy density is about ±1 % whereas the 95 % error of the difference error is ±0.5 % or better. The analytic model has been upgraded with a better strain description. The effect of the air gap between a pressed solid explosive and the inner copper wall has been measured and modeled. An off-center effect has also been seen. Density effects on the energy density from 1.82 to 1.92 g cm -3 are described for LX-17. Data has also been taken at -55, 75 and 125 °C. Finally, the last temperature gives a large enough difference to show that the mechanism appears to be only density change.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment from lattice QCD

The form factor that yields the light-by-light scattering contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment is computed in lattice QCD+QED and QED. A non-perturbative treatment of QED is used and is checked against perturbation theory. The hadronic contribution is calculated for unphysical quark and muon masses, and only the diagram with a single quark loop is computed. Statistically significant signals are obtained. Initial results appear promising, and the prospect for a complete calculation with physical masses and controlled errors is discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Computer-assisted area detector masking

Area detectors have become the predominant type of detector for the rapid acquisition of X-ray diffraction, small-angle scattering and total scattering. These detectors record the scattering for a large area, giving each shot good statistical significance to the resulting scattered intensity I ( Q ) pattern. However, many of these detectors have pixel level defects, which cause error in the resulting one-dimensional patterns. In this work, new software to automatically find and mask these dead pixels and other defects is presented. This algorithm is benchmarked with both ideal simulated and experimental datasets.

Wright, Christopher J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterization of Morphology using MAMA Software

The MAMA (Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution) software was developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory funded through the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center in the Department of Homeland Security. The software allows images to be analysed and quantified. The largest project I worked on was to quantify images of plutonium oxides and ammonium diuranates prepared by the group with the software and provide analyses on the particles of each sample. Images were quantified through MAMA, with a color analysis, a lexicon description and powder x-ray diffraction. Through this we were able to visually see a difference between some of the syntheses. An additional project was to revise the manual for MAMA to help streamline training and provide useful tips to users to more quickly become acclimated to using the software. The third project investigated expanding the scope of MAMA and finding a statistically relevant baseline for the particulates through the analysis of maps in the software and using known measurements to compare the error associated with the software. During this internship, I worked on several different projects dealing with the MAMA software. The revision of the usermanual for the MAMA software was the first project I was able to work and collaborate on. I first learned how to use the software by getting instruction from a skilled user at the laboratory, Dan Schwartz, and by using the existing user manual and examples. After becoming accustomed to the program, I started to go over the manual to correct and change items that were not as useful or descriptive as they could have been. I also added in tips that I learned as I explored the software. The updated manual was also worked on by several others who have been developing the program. The goal of these revisions was to ensure the most concise and simple directions to the software were available to future users. By incorporating tricks and shortcuts that I discovered and picked up from watching other users into the user guide, I believe that anyone who utilizes the software will be able to quickly understand the best way to analyze their image and use the tools the program offers to achieve useful results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pion valence quark distribution at physical pion mass of N f = 2 + 1 + 1 lattice QCD

Abstract We present a state-of-the-art calculation of the unpolarized pion valence-quark distribution in the framework of large-momentum effective theory (LaMET) with improved handling of systematic errors as well as two-loop perturbative matching. We use lattice ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration at lattice spacinga≈ 0.09 fm, lattice volume 64 3 × 96,N f = 2 + 1 + 1 flavors of highly-improved staggered quarks and a physical pion mass. The LaMET matrix elements are calculated with pions boosted to momentumP z ≈ 1.72 GeV with high-statistics ofO(10 6 ) measurements. We study the pion PDF in both hybrid-ratio and hybrid-regularization-independent momentum subtraction (hybrid-RI/MOM) schemes and also compare the systematic errors with and without the addition of leading-renormalon resummation (LRR) and renormalization-group resummation (RGR) in both the renormalization and lightcone matching. The final lightcone PDF results are presented in the modified minimal-subtraction scheme at renormalization scaleμ= 2.0 GeV. We show that thex-dependent PDFs are compatible between the hybrid-ratio and hybrid-RI/MOM renormalization with the same improvements. We also show that systematics are greatly reduced by the simultaneous inclusion of RGR and LRR and that these methods are necessary if improved precision is to be reached with higher-order terms in renormalization and matching.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Spectral characteristics of background error covariance and multiscale data assimilation

The spatial resolutions of numerical atmospheric and oceanic circulation models have steadily increased over the past decades. Horizontal grid spacing down to the order of 1 km is now often used to resolve cloud systems in the atmosphere and sub-mesoscale circulation systems in the ocean. These fine resolution models encompass a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, across which dynamical and statistical properties vary. In particular, dynamic flow systems for small scales can become spatially localized and temporarily intermittent. An analysis shows that the background correlation length scale is larger than 75 km for streamfunctions, even for a 2-km resolution model, and larger than 25 km for water vapor mixing ratios. The theoretical analyses suggest that such correlation length scales prevent the currently used data assimilation schemes from constraining spatial scales smaller than 150 km for streamfunctions and 50 km for water vapor mixing ratios. These results highlight the necessity of fundamentally modifying the currently used data assimilation algorithm for assimilating high-resolution observations into the aforementioned fine resolution models. A multiscale methodology based on scale decomposition is suggested, and challenges are discussed.

Li, Zhijin↗
DOE OSTI2013

A unified statistical framework for material decomposition using multienergy photon counting x-ray detectors

Purpose: Material decomposition using multienergy photon counting x-ray detectors (PCXD) has been an active research area over the past few years. Even with some success, the problem of optimal energy selection and three material decomposition including malignant tissue is still on going research topic, and more systematic studies are required. This paper aims to address this in a unified statistical framework in a mammographic environment.Methods: A unified statistical framework for energy level optimization and decomposition of three materials is proposed. In particular, an energy level optimization algorithm is derived using the theory of the minimum variance unbiased estimator, and an iterative algorithm is proposed for material composition as well as system parameter estimation under the unified statistical estimation framework. To verify the performance of the proposed algorithm, the authors performed simulation studies as well as real experiments using physical breast phantom and ex vivo breast specimen. Quantitative comparisons using various performance measures were conducted, and qualitative performance evaluations for ex vivo breast specimen were also performed by comparing the ground-truth malignant tissue areas identified by radiologists.Results: Both simulation and real experiments confirmed that the optimized energy bins by the proposed method allow better material decomposition quality. Moreover, for the specimen thickness estimation errors up to 2 mm, the proposed method provides good reconstruction results in both simulation and real ex vivo breast phantom experiments compared to existing methods.Conclusions: The proposed statistical framework of PCXD has been successfully applied for the energy optimization and decomposition of three material in a mammographic environment. Experimental results using the physical breast phantom and ex vivo specimen support the practicality of the proposed algorithm.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2014

MO-A-16A-01: QA Procedures and Metrics: In Search of QA Usability

Radiation therapy has undergone considerable changes in the past two decades with a surge of new technology and treatment delivery methods. The complexity of radiation therapy treatments has increased and there has been increased awareness and publicity about the associated risks. In response, there has been proliferation of guidelines for medical physicists to adopt to ensure that treatments are delivered safely. Task Group recommendations are copious, and clinical physicists' hours are longer, stretched to various degrees between site planning and management, IT support, physics QA, and treatment planning responsibilities.Radiation oncology has many quality control practices in place to ensure the delivery of high-quality, safe treatments. Incident reporting systems have been developed to collect statistics about near miss events at many radiation oncology centers. However, tools are lacking to assess the impact of these various control measures. A recent effort to address this shortcoming is the work of Ford et al (2012) who recently published a methodology enumerating quality control quantification for measuring the effectiveness of safety barriers. Over 4000 near-miss incidents reported from 2 academic radiation oncology clinics were analyzed using quality control quantification, and a profile of the most effective quality control measures (metrics) was identified.There is a critical need to identify a QA metric to help the busy clinical physicists to focus their limited time and resources most effectively in order to minimize or eliminate errors in the radiation treatment delivery processes. In this symposium the usefulness of workflows and QA metrics to assure safe and high quality patient care will be explored.Two presentations will be given:Quality Metrics and Risk Management with High Risk Radiation Oncology ProceduresStrategies and metrics for quality management in the TG-100 Era Learning Objectives: Provide an overview and the need for QA usability metrics: Different cultures/practices affecting the effectiveness of methods and metrics. Show examples of quality assurance workflows, Statistical process control, that monitor the treatment planning and delivery process to identify errors. To learn to identify and prioritize risks and QA procedures in radiation oncology. Try to answer the question: Can a quality assurance program aided by quality assurance metrics help minimize errors and ensure safe treatment delivery. Should such metrics be institution specific.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical change detection of building energy consumption: Applications to savings estimation

The surge in interval meter data availability and associated activity in energy data analytics has inspired new interest in advanced methods for building efficiency savings estimation. Statistical and machine learning approaches are being explored to improve the energy baseline models used to measure and verify savings. One outstanding challenge is the ability to identify and account for operational changes that may confound savings estimates. In the measurement and verification (M&V) context, ‘non-routine events’ (NREs) cause changes in building energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model’s independent variables. In the M&V process NREs must be accounted for as ‘adjustments’ to appropriately attribute the estimated energy savings to the specific efficiency interventions that were implemented. Currently this is a manual and custom process, conducted using professional judgment and engineering expertise. As such it remains a barrier in scaling and standardizing meter-based savings estimation. Here in this work, a data driven methodology was developed to (partially) automate, and therefore streamline the process of detecting NREs in the post-retrofit period and making associated savings adjustments. The proposed NRE detection algorithm is based on a statistical change point detection method and a dissimilarity metric. The dissimilarity metric measures the proximity between the actual time series of the post-retrofit energy consumption and the projected baseline, which is generated using a statistical baseline model. The suggested approach for NRE adjustment involves the NRE detection algorithm, the M&V practitioner, and a regression modeling algorithm. The performance of the detection and adjustment algorithm was evaluated using a simulation-generated test data set, and two benchmark algorithms. Results show a high true positive detection rate (75%-100% across the test cases), higher than ideal false positive detection rates (20%-70%), and low errors in energy adjustment (<0.7%). These results indicate that the algorithm holds for helping M&V practitioners to streamline the process of handling NREs. Moreover, the change point algorithm and underlying statistical principles could prove valuable for other building analytics applications such as anomaly detection and fault diagnostics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Validating the simulation of large-scale parallel applications using statistical characteristics

Simulation is a widely adopted method to analyze and predict the performance of large-scale parallel applications. Validating the hardware model is highly important for complex simulations with a large number of parameters. Common practice involves calculating the percent error between the projected and the real execution time of a benchmark program. However, in a high-dimensional parameter space, this coarse-grained approach often suffers from parameter insensitivity, which may not be known a priori. Moreover, the traditional approach cannot be applied to the validation of software models, such as application skeletons used in online simulations. In this work, we present a methodology and a toolset for validating both hardware and software models by quantitatively comparing fine-grained statistical characteristics obtained from execution traces. Although statistical information has been used in tasks like performance optimization, this is the first attempt to apply it to simulation validation. Lastly, our experimental results show that the proposed evaluation approach offers significant improvement in fidelity when compared to evaluation using total execution time, and the proposed metrics serve as reliable criteria that progress toward automating the simulation tuning process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗