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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Discrete‐Time Models for Spreading Processes in Complex Networks: A Review

Abstract Research into network dynamics of spreading processes typically employs both discrete and continuous time methodologies. Although each approach offers distinct insights, integrating them can be challenging, particularly when maintaining coherence across different time scales. This review focuses on the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA), a probabilistic f ramework originally designed for epidemic modeling. MMCA uses discrete dynamics to compute the probabilities of individuals transitioning between epidemiological states. By treating each time step—usually a day—as a discrete event, the approach captures multiple concurrent changes within this time frame. The approach allows to estimate the likelihood of individuals or populations being in specific states, which correspond to distinct epidemiological compartments. This review synthesizes key findings from the application of this approach, providing a comprehensive overview of its utility in understanding epidemic spread.

Granell, Clara↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clustering and α-capture reaction rate from ab initio 20 Ne

We introduce a new framework for studying clustering and for calculating α partial widths using ab initio wave functions. We demonstrate the formalism for 20 Ne, by calculating the overlap between the 16 O + α cluster configuration and states in 20 Ne computed in the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model. We present spectroscopic amplitudes and spectroscopic factors, and compare those to no-core symplectic shell-model results in larger model spaces, to gain insight into the underlying physics that drives α clustering. Specifically, we report on the α partial width of the lowest 1 – resonance in 20 Ne, which is found to be in good agreement with experiment.We also present first no-core shell-model estimates for asymptotic normalization coefficients for the ground state, as well as for the first excited 4 + state in 20 Ne that lies in a close proximity to the α + 16 O threshold. This outcome highlights the importance of correlations for developing cluster structures and for describing α widths. The widths can then be used to calculate α-capture reaction rates for narrow resonances of interest to astrophysics. Finally, we explore the reaction rate for the α-capture reaction 16 O(α, γ ) 20 Ne at astrophysically relevant temperatures and determine its impact on simulated x-ray burst abundances.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Real-Time Degradation Estimation Approach for Batteries in PV and Battery Hybrid Plant Operation

Conventional cyclic degradation assessment for batteries is often limited in its ability to provide real-time degradation information during operation, because the estimation of degradation is commonly performed after a specific evaluation period. Modified methods can provide real-time evaluation but at the cost of high computation complexity. This paper proposes a novel estimation method that addresses these limitations. It efficiently determines the incremental degradation of any two consecutive state-of-charge (SOC) samples during battery operation, thus enabling real-time estimation. To validate the proposed method, measurement data from lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery testing was adopted, and the results were compared with the conventional model and the measured capacity. The results demonstrate accuracy over the evaluation period in terms of cumulative degradation, and a reduced computation cost compared with other methods. This approach has benefits in various applications, especially in cases where batteries experience irregular charging and discharging stress cycles such as PV and battery hybrid plants.

Wang, Shumeng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis

Despite the widespread use of the radiative kernel technique for studying radiative feedbacks and radiative forcings, there has not been any systematic, observation-based validation of the radiative kernel method. Here, we utilize observed and reanalyzed radiative fluxes and atmospheric profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and ERA5 reanalysis to assess a set of observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat for six ARM sites. The CloudSat radiative kernels, convoluted with the ERA5 state variables, can almost perfectly reconstruct the monthly anomalies of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes in ERA5 at the surface (SFC) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) with correlations significantly being greater than 0.95. The biases of kernel-estimated flux anomalies calculated using the ARM-observed state variables can be more than twice as large when compared with the ARM-observed surface flux anomalies and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observed anomalies at the TOA. Generally, clouds contribute to most (>60%) of the variance of flux anomalies at Southern Great Plain (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and surface albedo dominates (>69%) the variance of SW flux anomalies at North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Furthermore, the radiative kernels exhibit the lowest correlation (r ~ [0.55,0.85]) when reconstructing SFC LW flux anomalies at SGP, TWP, and ENA, whose biases are related to the possibility that the kernels may not fully capture the characteristics associated with MJO and ENSO at TWP and the presence of clouds at SGP and ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Estimation of Pauli Observables by Derandomization

In this work, we consider the problem of jointly estimating expectation values of many Pauli observables, a crucial subroutine in variational quantum algorithms. Starting with randomized measurements, we propose an efficient derandomization procedure that iteratively replaces random single-qubit measurements by fixed Pauli measurements; the resulting deterministic measurement procedure is guaranteed to perform at least as well as the randomized one. In particular, for estimating any L low-weight Pauli observables, a deterministic measurement on only of order log(L) copies of a quantum state suffices. In some cases, for example, when some of the Pauli observables have high weight, the derandomized procedure is substantially better than the randomized one. Specifically, numerical experiments highlight the advantages of our derandomized protocol over various previous methods for estimating the ground-state energies of small molecules.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonparametric Inference for the Reproductive Rate in Generalized Compartmental Models

We develop a tractable nonparametric model for the time-varying reproductive rate of infectious diseases that combines the structure of a deterministic compartmental model and a stochastic model for incidence data. We use Bayesian inference to estimate, with uncertainty, the reproductive rate of the Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in the U.S. states of California, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, and Texas from January 2020 to March 2022. Employing the inferred reproductive rates, we estimate the posterior distribution of the time-varying reproduction numbers for each state. Compering the time-varying reproduction numbers across the states, we identify some epidemic waves, potentially driven from changes in human behavior and virus mutations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Error mitigation, optimization, and extrapolation on a trapped-ion testbed

Current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) trapped-ion devices are subject to errors which can significantly impact the accuracy of calculations if left unchecked. A form of error mitigation called zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) can decrease an algorithm’s sensitivity to these errors without increasing the number of required qubits. Here we explore different methods for integrating this error mitigation technique into the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) algorithm for calculating the ground state of the HeH + molecule at 0.8 Å in the presence of experimental noise. Using the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed (QSCOUT) trapped-ion device, we test three methods of scaling noise for extrapolation: time stretching the two-qubit gates, scaling the sideband detuning parameter, and inserting two-qubit gate identity operations into the ansatz circuit. We find that time stretching and sideband detuning scaling fail to scale the noise on our particular hardware in a way that can be extrapolated to zero noise. Scaling our noise with global gate identity insertions and extrapolating after variational optimization, we achieve error suppression of 96.8%, resulting in an energy estimate within –0.004 ± 0.04 hartree of the ground state energy. This is an improvement, but still outside the chemical accuracy threshold of 0.0016 hartree. Furthermore, our results show that the efficacy of this error mitigation technique depends on choosing the correct implementation for a given device architecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-Gaussian Generalized Two-Mode Squeezing: Applications to Two-Ensemble Spin Squeezing and Beyond

Bosonic two-mode squeezed states are paradigmatic entangled Gaussian states that have wide utility in quantum information and metrology. Here, in this study, we show that the basic structure of these states can be generalized to arbitrary bipartite quantum systems in a manner that allows simultaneous, Heisenberg-limited estimation of two independent parameters for finite-dimensional systems. Further, we show that these general states can always be stabilized by a relatively simple Markovian dissipative process. In the specific case where the two subsystems are ensembles of two-level atoms or spins, our generalized states define a notion of two-mode spin squeezing that is valid beyond the Gaussian limit and that enables true multiparameter estimation. We discuss how generalized Ramsey measurements allow one to reach the two-parameter quantum Cramér-Rao bound, and how the dissipative preparation scheme is compatible with current experiments.

Mamaev, Mikhail [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond CCSD(T) Accuracy at Lower Scaling with Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo

We introduce a black-box auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) approach to perform highly accurate electronic structure calculations using configuration interaction singles and doubles (CISD) trial states. This method consistently provides more accurate energy estimates than coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples (CCSD(T)), often regarded as the gold standard in quantum chemistry. This level of precision is achieved at a lower asymptotic computational cost, scaling as O(N 6 ) compared to the O(N 7 ) scaling of CCSD(T). Furthermore, we provide numerical evidence supporting these findings through results for challenging main group and transition metal-containing molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Non-Regulatory Energy Efficiency Measures in the United States

Increasing energy efficiency is ubiquitous in many economies, and several mechanisms for achieving this increase, from mandatory policies to voluntary initiatives, have been proposed and implemented. In the United States, the Department of Energy, during the development of its energy conservation standard rules, evaluates the benefits from several of these mechanisms. In this report, we review how estimates of benefits from two types of voluntary energy efficiency initiatives – rebates and voluntary energy efficiency targets (VETs) – compare to the same benefits estimated for minimum energy efficiency standards (MEPS) established in the United States for residential appliances, commercial and industrial equipment, and lighting applications (referred to simply as “products” for the remainder of this report) between 2010 and 2020. Our results show that, overall, these two voluntary measures are estimated to provide, altogether, 36% of the total energy savings estimated to be provided by new efficiency standards, with a total net-present value that corresponds to 52% of the net-present value estimated for standards. When considering all energy conservation rules reviewed in this report, the energy savings a rebate program is estimated to achieve ranges from less than 1% to 86% of the savings from new standards set for the same type of product and at the same level of energy efficiency. As for VETs, the energy savings range from less than 1% to 78% of the savings from standards. Results vary widely across types of products due to (a) the relevance of the monetary incentive relative to incremental upfront costs considered for each type of product, and (b) the estimated level of market barriers associated with each type of product. While voluntary energy efficiency initiatives are not as effective as MEPS in transforming the market and raising the bar of energy efficiency for energy consuming goods in an economy, when applied in tandem with MEPS they can be powerful instruments for promoting and increasing energy efficiency in the economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Method for Tensor Decompositions that Leverages Stochastic and Deterministic Optimization

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method that uses stochastic and deterministic search to compute the maximum likelihood estimator of a low-rank count tensor with Poisson loss via state-of-theart local methods. Our approach is inspired by Simulated Annealing for global optimization and allows for fine-grain parameter tuning as well as adaptive updates to algorithm parameters. We present numerical results that indicate our hybrid approach can compute better approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator with less computation than the state-of-the-art methods by themselves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Short-depth circuits for efficient expectation-value estimation

The evaluation of expectation values Tr[$\rho \mathcal{O}$] for some pure state $\rho$ and Hermitian operator $\mathcal{O}$ is of central importance in a variety of quantum algorithms. Near-optimal techniques have been developed in the past and require a number of measurements N approaching the Heisenberg limit N = O(1/ ε) as a function of target accuracy ε. The use of quantum phase estimation (QPE) requires, however, long circuit depths C = O(1/ ε) making its implementation difficult on near-term noisy devices. The more direct strategy of operator averaging is usually preferred as it can be performed using N = O(1/ε 2 ) measurements and no additional gates aside from those needed for the state preparation. In this work we use a simple but realistic model to describe the bound state of a neutron and a proton (the deuteron) to show that the latter strategy can require an overly large number of measurements in order to achieve a prefixed relative target accuracy ε r . Further, we propose to overcome this problem using a single step of QPE and classical postprocessing. This approach leads to a circuit depth C = O (ε μ ) (with μ ≥ 0) and to a number of measurements N = O (1/ε 2 + ν ) for 0 < ν ≤ 1 and a much smaller prefactor. We provide detailed descriptions of two implementations of our strategy for ν = 1 and ν ≈ 0.5 and derive appropriate conditions that a particular problem instance has to satisfy in order for our method to provide an advantage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Democratizing life cycle assessment by developing a streamlined model of greenhouse gas emissions from US natural gas supply chains

Natural gas (NG) supply chains contribute substantially to the global energy supply and anthropogenic methane emissions, making them frequent subjects of life cycle assessments (LCAs). To better characterize central tendencies and variability, we systematically reviewed and harmonized published estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from United States NG supply chains. Results informed a streamlined LCA model (SLiNG-GHG: streamlined LCAs of NG-GHGs) that quantifies carbon dioxide and methane from three gates: transmission, distribution, and shipping. Median estimates employing harmonized emission inputs, are 10, 11, and 21 g CO2e/MJ gas (100-year global warming potentials [GWPs]), and 20, 22, and 33 g CO2e/MJ gas (20-year GWPs), delivered to each gate, respectively. Alternatively, inputting available, independent methane measurements, SLiNG-GHG estimates varied from -23% to +316% relative to baseline. Bottom-up inventories used in LCAs tend to underestimate methane compared with measurements. Results underscore the need for open-source, streamlined LCA models that can easily incorporate rapidly evolving measurements for non-experts like investors and regulators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Analysis for an Economically and Environmentally Viable Transition to Heavy-Duty Vehicles with Alternative Powertrains

The transportation sector is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Within the sector, truck freight is responsible for a third of the associated emissions. Alternative powertrains are seen as a viable approach to significantly reduce these emissions. Prior to making a large-scale transition, it is important to consider the following questions: will the power grid support a transition to alternative powertrains?; will the transition truly reduce carbon emissions?; and will the transition impose an unnecessary economic burden on companies within the industry? The answer to these questions, however, can vary by geography, maturity/capacity of the energy distribution network or predicted vehicle load. We focus on the latter two questions, investigating the variation in estimated total cost of ownership and carbon emissions across the United States at the zip code level for both heavy-duty battery electric vehicles and heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. As a benchmark, we compare estimated emissions and costs of alternative powertrain vehicles to that of conventional heavy-duty vehicles powered by diesel internal combustion engines. This work highlights areas with electric grids primed for a transition to alternative powertrain vehicles, such as the Pacific Northwest, and areas that require further infrastructure investment in renewables, such as many of the Mountain states, Missouri, and Florida. Additionally, this work illustrates the current advantages in carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles compared to fuel-cell electric vehicles, while providing insights into required regional investments for narrowing the gap.

Goulet, Nate [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237314965)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design of Experiments for Dynamic Test Runs in Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Pilot Plants

Test runs in the pilot plants consume significant resources, and therefore, the learning from test runs should be maximized. Test runs conducted in the pilot plants are often steady state. It takes several hours for reaching steady-state in the pilot plants, and thus, the duration of the test runs needs to be long even for collecting few steady-state data points. On the other hand, a large number of measurements can be collected through dynamic test runs in a short span of time. This paper presents a systematic design of dynamic experiments (DoDEs) for identifiability of model parameters, which is achieved by persistently exciting the inputs signals. A pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) is designed as the input signal for DoDE due to its efficiency in obtaining sufficient spectral content. However, due to the long sequence size of the PRBS signal, a Schroeder-phase input signal, which is a multisine signal, is also designed. Tests for both types of signals are run in the Pilot Solvent Test Unit (PSTU) at the National Carbon Capture Center in Wilsonville, Alabama. The transient data are used to solve dynamic data reconciliation and parameter estimation problem. The estimated parameters are found to be not only superior to those estimated from using data collected from hundreds of steady-state test runs in a nonreactive (air–water) system, but the parameters could be estimated by using the dynamic data collected for about 24 h from the pilot plant for the MEA-H 2 O–CO 2 system.

CO2 capture↗