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At least 883 records · Page 49
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DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Compliance in an Epidemiological Model: Constructs from Psychological Theory and Research

Vaccination and the alternative behavior, vaccine refusal, are a classic example of manifesting behaviors driven by social norms and norm violations. Establishing how norms emerge, and under what circumstances people choose to violate them are key issues to understand in modeling epidemics. Interactions between individuals can lead to large-scale patterning of behavior (emergent phenomena). As norm violations are revealed through human behavior, drawing on psychological theory and principles to predict those violations is a viable approach for more human-constrained epidemiological models. As an example of the implications at scale, vaccine refusal is correlated with the spread of mis/disinformation about vaccine side-effects. Considering the complexities of network dynamics, the downstream effects means that if even a small group within a population are persuaded against vaccination, there is a reservoir from which disease and disease outbreaks can propagate. This work will attempt to identify those psychological indicators, to define circumstances that predict health behaviors, and identify potentially modifiable antecedents of health behavior, and factors that influence changes toward health protective behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Impacts to COVID-19 Herd Immunity Thresholds Under Demographic Heterogeneity that Lowers Vaccine Effectiveness

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe health, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. Although highly efficacious vaccines were developed at an unprecedented rate, the heterogeneity in vaccinated populations has reduced the ability to achieve herd immunity. Specifically, as of Spring 2022, the 0–4 year-old population is still unable to be vaccinated and vaccination rates across 5-11 year olds are low. Additionally, vaccine hesitancy for older populations has further stalled efforts to reach herd immunity thresholds. This heterogeneous vaccine landscape increases the challenge of anticipating disease spread in a population. We developed an age-structured Susceptible-InfectiousRecovered-type mathematical model to investigate the impacts of unvaccinated subpopulations on herd immunity. The model considers two types of undervaccination - age-related and behaviorrelated - by incorporating four age groups based on available FDA-approved vaccines. The model accounts for two different types of vaccines, mRNA (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna) and vector (e.g., Johnson and Johnson), as well as their effectiveness. Our goal is to analyze different scenarios to quantify which subpopulations and vaccine characteristics (e.g., rate or efficacy) most impact infection levels in the United States, using the state of New Mexico as an example.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Characterization of Surface Reflectance Variation Effects on Remote Sensing

The use of Monte Carlo radiative transfer codes to simulate the effects on remote sensing in visible and infrared wavelengths of variables which affect classification is examined. These variables include detector viewing angle, atmospheric aerosol size distribution, aerosol vertical and horizontal distribution (e.g., finite clouds), the form of the bidirectional ground reflectance function, and horizontal variability of reflectance type and reflectivity (albedo). These simulations are used to characterize the sensitivity of observables (intensity and polarization) to variations in the underlying physical parameters both to improve algorithms for the removal of atmospheric effects and to identify techniques which can improve classification accuracy. It was necessary to revise and validate the simulation codes (CTRANS, ARTRAN, and the Mie scattering code) to improve efficiency and accommodate a new operational environment, and to build the basic software tools for acquisition and off-line manipulation of simulation results. Initial calculations compare cases in which increasing amounts of aerosol are shifted into the stratosphere, maintaining a constant optical depth. In the case of moderate aerosol optical depth, the effect on the spread function is to scale it linearly as would be expected from a single scattering model. Varying the viewing angle appears to provide the same qualitative effect as modifying the vertical optical depth (for Lambertian ground reflectance).

Pearce, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Mesosphere Dynamics with Gravity Wave Forcing: Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Tides - 1

We present results from a nonlinear, 3D, time dependent numerical spectral model (NSM), which extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Our focal point is the mesosphere that is dominated by wave interactions. We discuss diurnal and semi-diurnal tides ill the present paper (Part 1) and planetary waves in the companion paper (Part 2). To provide an understanding of the seasonal variations of tides, in particular with regard to gravity wave processes, numerical experiments are performed that lead to the following conclusions: 1. The large semiannual variations in tile diurnal tide (DT), with peak amplitudes observed around equinox, are produced primarily by GW interactions that involve, in part, planetary waves. 2. The DT, like planetary waves, tends to be amplified by GW momentum deposition, which reduces also the vertical wavelength. 3.Variations in eddy viscosity associated with GW interactions tend to peak in late spring and early fall and call also influence the DT. 4. The semidiurnal semidiurnal tide (SDT), and its phase in particular, is strongly influenced by the mean zonal circulation. 5. The SDT, individually, is amplified by GW's. But the DT filters out GW's such that the wave interaction effectively reduces the amplitude of the SDT, effectively producing a strong nonlinear interaction between the DT and SDT. 6.) Planetary waves generated internally by baroclinic instability and GW interaction produce large amplitude modulations of the DT and SDT.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Constraints on the Opening Rate of Bands on Europa

The opening rates of two bands on Europa, inferred to be sites of spreading of the icy lithosphere, are constrained based on a mid-ocean ridge analog model. Estimates of brittle-ductile transition depth combined with a conductive cooling model limit active band lifetimes to 0.24 - 35 Myr and strain rates of 8.1 x 10(exp -13) - 8.2 x 10(exp -15)/s. These values suggest tensile strengths for ice on Europa of 0.46 - 2.3 MPa, consistent with nonsynchronous rotation as the dominant driving mechanism for band opening.

Stempel, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle. During this event, ionospheric F-region density measurements from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS) show dramatic depletions in the post-sunset (nighttime) local time sector at equatorial latitudes starting in the main phase of the storm and persisting on several subsequent orbits into the next day. Putting these low-latitude measurements in context with the global dynamics of the storm, we will present results from simulations and observations in our efforts to better understand the effects of this storm on the different regions of the coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere. The consequences of the magnetospheric penetration electric field and their role in the occurrence of these equatorial spread F observations will be investigated through the results of the SAMI3-RCM numerical model, a coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere model with self-consistent large-scale electrodynamics. Specifically, we will investigate the transient signatures of the interplanetary magnetic field component, Bz, and its role in driving the global convection electric field and ionospheric density redistribution. Lastly, measurements from the AMPERE Birkeland currents, DMSP drift velocities and the particle flux dropouts observed from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) will be correlated with the FPMU density depletions and each other. Together these observations and simulation results will be assembled to provide each region’s context to the global dynamics and time evolution of the storm.

Coffey, Victoria↗
NASA NTRS2017

Interval Predictor Models for Data with Measurement Uncertainty

An interval predictor model (IPM) is a computational model that predicts the range of an output variable given input-output data. This paper proposes strategies for constructing IPMs based on semidefinite programming and sum of squares (SOS). The models are optimal in the sense that they yield an interval valued function of minimal spread containing all the observations. Two different scenarios are considered. The first one is applicable to situations where the data is measured precisely whereas the second one is applicable to data subject to known biases and measurement error. In the latter case, the IPMs are designed to fully contain regions in the input-output space where the data is expected to fall. Moreover, we propose a strategy for reducing the computational cost associated with generating IPMs as well as means to simulate them. Numerical examples illustrate the usage and performance of the proposed formulations.

Lacerda, Marcio J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle. During this event, ionospheric F-region density measurements from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS) show dramatic depletions in the post-sunset (nighttime) local time sector at equatorial latitudes starting in the main phase of the storm and persisting on several subsequent orbits into the next day. Putting these low-latitude measurements in context with the global dynamics of the storm, we will present results from simulations and observations in our efforts to better understand the effects of this storm on the different regions of the coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere. The consequences of the magnetospheric penetration electric field and their role in the occurrence of these equatorial spread F observations will be investigated through the results of the SAMI3-RCM numerical model, a coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere model with self-consistent large-scale electrodynamics. Specifically, we will investigate the transient signatures of the interplanetary magnetic field component, Bz, and its role in driving the global convection electric field and ionospheric density redistribution. Lastly, measurements from the AMPERE Birkeland currents, DMSP drift velocities and the particle flux dropouts observed from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) will be correlated with the FPMU density depletions and each other. Together these observations and simulation results will be assembled to provide each region's context to the global dynamics and time evolution of the storm.

Coffey, Victoria↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Chromaticity Analysis and PSF Subtraction Techniques for SCExAO/CHARIS Data

We present an analysis of instrument performance using new observations taken with the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS) instrument and the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) system. In a correlation analysis of our data sets (which use the broadband mode covering the J band through the K band in a single spectrum), we find that chromaticity in the SCExAO/CHARIS system is generally worse than temporal stability. We also develop a point-spread function (PSF) subtraction pipeline optimized for the CHARIS broadband mode, including a forward modeling-based exoplanet algorithmic throughput correction scheme. We then present contrast curves using this newly developed pipeline. An analogous subtraction of the same data sets using only the H-band slices yields the same final contrasts as the full JHK sequences; this result is consistent with our chromaticity analysis, illustrating that PSF subtraction using spectral differential imaging (SDI) in this broadband mode is generally not more effective than SDI in the individual J, H, or K bands. In the future, the data processing framework and analysis developed in this paper will be important to consider for additional SCExAO/CHARIS broadband observations and other ExAO instruments which plan to implement a similar integral field spectrograph broadband mode.

Benjamin L. Gerard↗
NASA NTRS1987

Magnetization of the oceanic crust: TRM or CRM?

A model was proposed in which chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) acquired within the first 20 Ma of crustal evolution may account for 80% of the bulk natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of older basalts. The CRM of the crust is acquired as the original thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) is lost through low temperature alteration. The CRM intensity and direction are controlled by the post-emplacement polarity history. This model explains several independent observations concerning the magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model accounts for amplitude and skewness discrepancies observed in both the intermediate wavelength satellite field and the short wavelength sea surface magnetic anomaly pattern. It also explains the decay of magnetization away from the spreading axis, and the enhanced magnetization of the Cretaceous Quiet Zones while predicting other systematic variations with age in the bulk magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model also explains discrepancies in the anomaly skewness parameter observed for anomalies of Cretaceous age. Further studies indicate varying rates of TRM decay in very young crust which depicts the advance of low temperature alteration through the magnetized layer.

Raymond, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Magnetization of the oceanic crust - Thermoremanent magnetization of chemical remanent magnetization?

A model was proposed in which chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) acquired within the first 20 Ma of crustal evolution may account for 80 percent of the bulk natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of older basalts. The CRM of the crust is acquired as the original thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) is lost through low temperature alteration. The CRM intensity and direction are controlled by the post-emplacement polarity history. This model explains several independent observations concerning the magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model accounts for amplitude and skewness dicrepancies observed in both the intermediate wavelength satellite field and the short wavelength sea surface magnetic anomaly pattern. It also explains the decay of magnetization away from the spreading axis, and the enhanced magnetization of the Cretaceous Quiet Zones while predicting other systematic variations with age in the bulk magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model also explains discrepancies in the anomaly skewness parameter observed for anomalies of Cretaceous age. Further studies indicate varying rates of TRM decay in very young crust which depicts the advance of low temperature alteration through the magnetized layer.

Raymond, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling and Correcting the Time-Dependent ACS PSF

The ability to accurately measure the shapes of faint objects in images taken with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) depends upon detailed knowledge of the Point Spread Function (PSF). We show that thermal fluctuations cause the PSF of the ACS Wide Field Camera (WFC) to vary over time. We describe a modified version of the TinyTim PSF modeling software to create artificial grids of stars across the ACS field of view at a range of telescope focus values. These models closely resemble the stars in real ACS images. Using 10 bright stars in a real image, we have been able to measure HST s apparent focus at the time of the exposure. TinyTim can then be used to model the PSF at any position on the ACS field of view. This obviates the need for images of dense stellar fields at different focus values, or interpolation between the few observed stars. We show that residual differences between our TinyTim models and real data are likely due to the effects of Charge Transfer Efficiency (CTE) degradation. Furthermore, we discuss stochastic noise that is added to the shape of point sources when distortion is removed, and we present MultiDrizzle parameters that are optimal for weak lensing science. Specifically, we find that reducing the MultiDrizzle output pixel scale and choosing a Gaussian kernel significantly stabilizes the resulting PSF after image combination, while still eliminating cosmic rays/bad pixels, and correcting the large geometric distortion in the ACS. We discuss future plans, which include more detailed study of the effects of CTE degradation on object shapes and releasing our TinyTim models to the astronomical community.

Rhodes, Jason↗
NASA NTRS1999

Hot Gas Testing Results of Stagnant Volume Filling Through a Back-Filled RSRM Nozzle Joint

Silicone rubber is back-filled into RSW nozzle joints after assembly. A possible artifact of this process is the formation of small pathways through this filter leading to sensitive sealing materials within the joint. At motor ignition, hot gases fill the stagnant volumes within the joint through this path. A series of 14 test has been completed studying this scenario and providing anchoring data for thermal/flow models. Parameters such as gas path cross section, gas path length, gas path materials, fill volume size, and post path gas spreading prior to unpingement on seal material, have been investigated. Tests were accomplished using geometry similar to RSRM nozzle joint 4 with attached volumes replicating the free volume and flow friction in the actual hardware. The test hardware simulated 8 inches of the full-scale circumference. Testing has pointed to changes required in model boundary condition assumptions and gas dynamics corrections for gas paths of this size and geometry. Areas ,where this date has provided improvement in analysis models will be covered as well as model inadequacies that require separate specialized efforts. Questions remaining after this testing and a possible direction for future testing will be suggested.

Prince, Andrew S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spectral and Temporal Properties of the Ultra-Luminous X-Ray Pulsar in M82 from 15 Years of Chandra Observations and Analysis of the Pulsed Emission Using NuSTAR

The recent discovery by Bachetti et al. of a pulsar in M82 that can reach luminosities of up to 10(exp 40) erg s(exp -1), a factor of approximately 100 times the Eddington luminosity for a 1.4 solar mass compact object, poses a challenge for accretion physics. In order to better understand the nature of this source and its duty cycle, and in light of several physical models that have been subsequently published, we conduct a spectral and temporal analysis of the 0.58 keV X-ray emission from this source from 15 years of Chandra observations. We analyze 19 ACIS observations where the point-spread function (PSF) of the pulsar is not contaminated by nearby sources. We fit the Chandra spectra of the pulsar with a power-law model and a disk blackbody model, subjected to interstellar absorption in M82. We carefully assess for the effect of pile-up in our observations, where four observations have a pile-up fraction of 10, which we account for during spectral modeling with a convolution model. When fitted with a power-law model, the average photon index when the source is at high luminosity (LX greater than 10(exp 39) erg s(exp -1) is equal to gamma 1.33 +/-.0.15. For the disk blackbody model, the average temperature is T(sub in) 3.24 +/- 0.65 keV, the spectral shape being consistent with other luminous X-ray pulsars. We also investigated the inclusion of a soft excess component and spectral break, finding that the spectra are also consistent with these features common to luminous X-ray pulsars. In addition, we present spectral analysis from NuSTAR over the 3-50 keV range where we have isolated the pulsed component. We find that the pulsed emission in this band is best fit by a power-law with a high-energy cutoff, where gamma is equal to 0.6 +/- 0.3 and E(sub C) is equal to 14(exp +5) (sub -3)) keV. While the pulsar has previously been identified as a transient, we find from our longer-baseline study that it has been remarkably active over the 15-year period, where for 9/19 (47%) observations that we analyzed, the pulsar appears to be emitting at a luminosity in excess of 10( exp (39) erg s (exp −1), greater than 10 times its Eddington limit.

individual (M82) - stars: neutron X rays; binaries↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical predictions of cryogenic hydrogen vertical jets

Here, a comparison of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) predictions with measurements is presented for cryo-compressed hydrogen vertical jets. The stagnation conditions of the experiments are characteristic of unintended leaks from pipe systems that connect cryogenic hydrogen storage tanks and could be encountered at a fuel cell refueling station. Jets with pressure up to 5 bar and temperatures just above the saturation liquid temperature were examined. Comparisons are made to the centerline mass fraction and temperature decay rates, the radial profiles of mass fraction and the contours of volume fraction. Two notional nozzle approaches are tested to model the under-expanded jet that was formed in the tests with pressures above 2 bar. In both approaches the mass and momentum balance from the throat to the notional nozzle are solved, while the temperature at the notional nozzle was assumed equal to the nozzle temperature in the first approach and was calculated by an energy balance in the second approach. The two approaches gave identical results. Satisfactory agreement with the measurements was found in terms of centerline mass fraction and temperature. However, for test with 3 and 4 bar release the concentration was overpredicted. Furthermore, a wider radial spread was observed in the predictions possibly revealing higher degree of diffusion using the k-ε turbulence model. An integral model for cryogenic jets was also developed and provided good results. Finally, a test simulation was performed with an ambient temperature jet and compared to the cold jet showing that warm jets decay faster than cold jets.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Vertical Error Characteristics of GOES-derived Winds: Description and Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Rao, P. Anil↗
NASA NTRS2001

Endo-Fullerene and Doped Diamond Nanocrystallite Based Models of Qubits for Solid-State Quantum Computers

Models of encapsulated 1/2 nuclear spin H-1 and P-31 atoms in fullerene and diamond nanocrystallite, respectively, are proposed and examined with ab-initio local density functional method for possible applications as single quantum bits (qubits) in solid-state quantum computers. A H-1 atom encapsulated in a fully deuterated fullerene, C(sub 20)D(sub 20), forms the first model system and ab-initio calculation shows that H-1 atom is stable in atomic state at the center of the fullerene with a barrier of about 1 eV to escape. A P-31 atom positioned at the center of a diamond nanocrystallite is the second model system, and 3 1P atom is found to be stable at the substitutional site relative to interstitial sites by 15 eV, Vacancy formation energy is 6 eV in diamond so that substitutional P-31 atom will be stable against diffusion during the formation mechanisms within the nanocrystallite. The coupling between the nuclear spin and weakly bound (valance) donor electron coupling in both systems is found to be suitable for single qubit applications, where as the spatial distributions of (valance) donor electron wave functions are found to be preferentially spread along certain lattice directions facilitating two or more qubit applications. The feasibility of the fabrication pathways for both model solid-state qubit systems within practical quantum computers is discussed with in the context of our proposed solid-state qubits.

Park, Seongjun↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗