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NASA NTRS2017

Evolution of an Intense Warm Frontal Precipitation Band During the GPM Cold-Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx)

The band developed with low-level deformation and frontogenesis along the sloping warm frontal zone, and the vertical motions became large enough to produce graupel on the south side of the band. Embedded convective cells developed earlier in our GCPEx event, but the frontogenesis was weak then and banding was limited. As the deformation increased the stability also increased near the banding location (MPV* ~0), which favored the development of single band. Through sensitivity studies (not shown) we found that latent heating helps increase the frontal circulations and resulting band development. Latent cooling also helps increase the frontogenesis given the evaporative and sublimation cooling within the frontal precipitation.

GCPEX↗

NASA NTRS2017

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models↗

NASA NTRS2015

Zernike Wavefront Sensor Modeling Development for LOWFS on WFIRST-AFTA

WFIRST-AFTA design makes use of an existing 2.4m telescope for direct imaging of exoplanets. To maintain the high contrast needed for the coronagraph, wavefront error (WFE) of the optical system needs to be continuously sensed and controlled. Low Order Wavefront Sensing (LOWFS) uses the rejected starlight from an immediate focal plane to sense wavefront changes (mostly thermally induced low order WFE) by combining the LOWFS mask (a phase plate located at the small center region with reflective layer) with the starlight rejection masks, i.e. Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph (HLC)'s occulter or Shaped Pupil Coronagraph (SPC)'s field stop. Zernike wavefront sensor (ZWFS) measures phase via the phase-contrast method and is known to be photon noise optimal for measuring low order aberrations. Recently, ZWFS was selected as the baseline LOWFS technology on WFIST/AFTA for its good sensitivity, accuracy, and its easy integration with the starlight rejection mask. In this paper, we review the theory of ZWFS operation, describe the ZWFS algorithm development, and summarize various numerical sensitivity studies on the sensor performance. In the end, the predicted sensor performance on SPC and HLC configurations are presented.

Zernike phase contrast↗

NASA NTRS2017

Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

Owens, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Data Generated for a Model Scramjet Isolator Flowfield

Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty. The nonintrusive nature of the approach allows the computational fluid dynamicist to perform the uncertainty quantification with the flow solver treated as a "black box". Moreover, a large fraction of the process can be automated, allowing the uncertainty assessment to be readily adapted into the engineering design and development workflow. In the present work, the approach is applied to a model scramjet isolator problem where the desire is to validate turbulence closure models in the presence of uncertainty. In this context, the relevant uncertainty sources are determined and accounted for to allow the analyst to delineate turbulence model-form errors from other sources of uncertainty associated with the simulation of the facility flow.

Baurle, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Model-Based Thermal System Design Optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.

Cataldo, Giuseppe↗

NASA NTRS2018

Coupled Thermomechanical Micromechanics Modeling of the Influence of Thermally Grown Oxide Layer in an Environmental Barrier Coating System

Environmental Barrier Coatings (EBCs) have emerged as a promising means of protecting critical components for high temperature applications (e.g., aircraft engines). EBCs are often used to protect an underlying material (substrate) from extreme thermal/chemical environments. However, systems that utilize EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination. Environmental Barrier Coatings (EBCs) have emerged as a promising means of protecting silicon based ceramic matrix composite (CMC) components for high temperature applications (e.g., aircraft engines). EBCs are often used to protect an underlying material (substrate) such as silicon carbide from extreme thermal/chemical environments. In a typical CMC/EBC system, an EBC may or may not be adhered to an underlying substrate with a bond coat (e.g., silicon). Irrespective, systems that utilize EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recession, chemical attack and dissolution, thermo-mechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object damage. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center is aimed at addressing these failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design process. The Higher-Order Theory for Functionally Graded Materials (HOTFGM), a precursor to the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells micromechanics approach, was developed to investigate the coupled thermo-mechanical behavior of functionally graded composites and will be used herein to assess the development and growth of a low-stiffness thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer in EBC/CMC systems without a silicon bond coat. To accomplish this a sensitivity study is conducted to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layer on the associated driving forces leading to mechanical failure (spallation) of EBC layer when subjected to isothermal loading, recession, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object damage. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center is aimed at addressing these failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design process. The Higher-Order Theory for Functionally Graded Materials (HOTFGM), a precursor to the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells micromechanics approach, was developed to investigate the coupled thermo-mechanical behavior of functionally graded composites (Aboudi et al., 1999, Composites B). For example, HOTFGM was previously used (Arnold et al, 1995, NASA CP 10178, paper 34), to assess interlaminar stresses (including free edge effects) in a substrate with a thermal barrier coating (TBC). In this study, HOTFGM micromechanics analyses will be used to assess the development and growth of a low-stiffness thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer between a silicon carbide substrate and a ytterbium disilicate EBC. In order to realistically simulate TGO growth, an evolution law will be incorporated into HOTFGM. In addition, the effect of TGO roughness will be explored consistent with previous TBC work (Pindera et al., 2000. Material Science and Engineering, A284, pp. 158-175). This model represents a first step in developing a robust analysis tool that can ultimately be used to design durable EBC systems. Additional failure modes will be considered as part of a future work.

environmental barrier coating↗

NASA NTRS2018

Coupled Thermo-Mechanical Micromechanics Modeling of the Influence of Thermally Grown Oxide Layer in an Environmental Barrier Coating System

Environmental Barrier Coatings (EBCs) have emerged as a promising means of protecting silicon based ceramic matrix composite (CMC) components for high temperature applications (e.g., aircraft engines). EBCs are often used to protect an underlying material (substrate) such as silicon carbide from extreme thermal/chemical environments. In a typical CMC/EBC system, an EBC may or may not be adhered to an underlying substrate with a bond coat (e.g., silicon). Irrespective, systems that utilize EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recession, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object damage. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center is aimed at addressing these failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design process. The Higher-Order Theory for Functionally Graded Materials (HOTFGM), a precursor to the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells micromechanics approach, was developed to investigate the coupled thermo-mechanical behavior of functionally graded composites and will be used herein to assess the development and growth of a low-stiffness thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer in EBC/CMC systems without a silicon bond coat. To accomplish this a sensitivity study is conducted to examine the influence of uniformly and nonuniformly grown oxide layer on the associated driving forces leading to mechanical failure (spallation) of EBC layer when subjected to isothermal loading.

thermally grown oxide↗

NASA NTRS2019

Hazards Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) of Four Concept Vehicle Propulsion Systems

The primary objective of this research effort is to identify failure modes and hazards associated with the concept vehicles and to perform functional hazard analyses (FHA) and failure modes and effects criticality analyses (FMECA) for each. Boeing also created a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for each of the concept vehicles, as the FTA contains the connectivity between systems and is an accepted, top-down method to analyze the safety of an air-vehicle. Conceptual design of notional powertrain configuration for each of four (4) NASA RVLT (Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology) Concept Vehicles were developed in as much detail as was necessary to support the reliability and safety analysis for this project. Functional block diagrams from each of the conceptual powertrain configurations were created and used to order the FHA, FMECA, and FTA. Hazards were identified and the severity of each were categorized in the FHA for use in a follow-up FMECA. The FTA took inputs from the FMECA and the functional block diagrams to develop the connectivity and develop a quantitative architecture that could be used to perform sensitivity studies, as related to vehicle safety.Guidelines for reliability targets for both the air vehicle and the operation in the UAM (Urban Air Mobility) mission are discussed. An industry literature search was performed in order to assess gaps in existing government regulations and industry specifications. The industry literature search led to air-vehicle and operational reliability discussions, as related to Distributed Electric/Hybrid-Electric Propulsion (DE/HEP) system operating in the UAM role. A discussion of results and recommendations for future work is also provided.

Hazards Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Stochastic Scheduler for Integrated Arrival, Departure and Surface Operations in Los Angeles

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals, departures, and surface operations with competing resources provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by removing barriers between different operations. This work develops a centralized stochastic scheduler for operations in a terminal area including airborne and surface operations using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. The scheduler handles completing resources between different flows, such as runway allocations, runway crossing, departure fixes, and other interaction way points between arrivals and departures. Meanwhile, the scheduler also takes time-varied uncertainties into account when optimizing schedules. The scheduler is run sequentially to identify the best and robust schedule for the next planning window. Resulting schedules decide the routes, speed or delays, and runway assignments with separation constraints at mergingdiverging waypoints in the air and crossing and separations on runways. The Los Angels terminal area was used as an example. The implementation of this stochastic scheduler for integrated arrival, departure and surface operations is completed. And several preliminary runs are finished for over 1,200 flights in LAX in a typical day. Sensitivity studies on various planning window sizes are presented, which shows that trade-off exits between planning window size and achievable minimum delay. Preliminary results on runway usage are also presented in this abstract. Because arrivals on the outer runways have to be followed by crossings on the inner runways, algorithmic runway allocation prefers inner runways for arrivals and outer runways for departures. More results will be presented in the final paper. And current terminal arrival and departure procedures based on first-come-first-serve procedure will also be set up and used as a baseline for comparison.

integrated scheduler↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Comparison of the GPROF Algorithm Results in the 2A-CLIM and 2A Data Products

The GPROF algorithm is used to retrieve precipitation values from all the GPM mission partner radiometers (i.e. GMI, MHS, ATMS, SSMIS, AMSR2). GPM produces two precipitation retrieval products (processing at level 2) using the GPROF algorithm. One has the type designation 2A and the other the designation 2A-CLIM. As a result understanding the difference between the two products is important for using and understanding them. Both of these GPROF products use exactly the same algorithm and a-priori databases. The only difference between the two types is the ancillary products used in the initial processing step. In the case of the 2A-CLIM products, ECMWF ERA-I is used as ancillary data. In the case of the 2A products, JMA's GANAL product is used as ancillary data. This presentation will provide a comparison between the two products using zonal mean comparisons. It will provide comparisons separately for land and ocean retrievals. It will compare the GMI differences over the entire current GPM mission life. As the only difference between the two products is the ancillary information used to create them, the comparison provides an elementary sensitivity study of the variables used from the reanalysis products and their impact on the GPROF retrieval. The purpose of the presentation is to provide users with an insight into the two GPROF products and provide them key information useful when using either of the products in scientific studies. Lastly, the presentation also discusses the reasons why only the 2A-CLIM product can be produced for the 17+ years of TRMM era data products.

GPM↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of the Parallel Electric-Gas Architecture with Synergistic Utilization Scheme (PEGASUS) Concept

The Parallel Electric-Gas Architecture with Synergistic Utilization Scheme (PE- GASUS) vehicle is a regional aircraft concept that uses electric and hybrid-electric propulsors located strategically to obtain aerodynamic and mission benefits. Traditional aircraft analysis tools are not well suited to analyze the PEGASUS aircraft due to the different propulsor types used. This report summarizes a methodology that addresses some of the mission analysis challenges expected in modeling this vehicle concept. An initial baseline design is selected and sensitivity studies are performed to further understand the potential benefits of the concept.

Capristan, Francisco M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Brightness Temperature Sensitivity to Snowpack Physical Properties Using Coupled Snow Physics and Microwave Radiative Transfer Models

There are multiple existing microwave radiative transfer models (RTMs) to simulate the brightness temperature (Tb) of snowpacks. It is still challenging to have consistent Tb responses from RTMs due to individual physical formulations of the snowpack scattering process. This article examines three of the widely-used multi-layer RTMs: 1) the microwave emission model of layered snowpacks (MEMLS); 2) the dense media radiative transfer based on the quasi-crystalline approximation (QCA) of Mie scattering of densely packed sticky spheres (DMRTQMS); and 3) the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) model. Interestingly, these models yield slightly different Tb responses when driven by the same physical snowpack properties. Tb variations, dependent on the choice of RTMs, are then evaluated to improve the understanding of model differences in microwave emission from a snowpack. We first perform a sensitivity study of the Tb predictions from the three RTMs as a function of snow grain sizes, densities, and depths. While Tb from all three RTMs decreases with increasing snow grain sizes, it is found that a scaling factor is required to have the same amount of Tb attenuation for small grain sizes within the Rayleigh scattering regime. For larger grain sizes, however, a scaling coefficient is not enough to match the model outputs due to the different scattering assumptions of the RTMs. For a single snow layer with increasing snow depths and densities, all three RTMs exhibit Tb attenuations arising from the increase in path lengths and optical depths. Further evaluations are conducted by feeding the three RTMs with the output of a snow physics model driven by in situ weather forcing in a coupled simulation. Outputs of this coupled model include snowpack physical properties and Tbs. By using snow stratigraphy observations, another set of Tb simulation is also conducted with RTMs driven by in situ snowpit observations. The snow physics outputs from the coupled case are compared against in situ snow stratigraphy observations.

Do Hyuk Kang↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling of the Influence of a Damaged Thermally Grown Oxide (TGO) Layer in an Environmental Barrier Coating System

Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) are an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recessions, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object impact damage in a combustion environment. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC), induced by a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from a silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. The TGO layer evolves (i.e., thickness increases with time) as water vapor and oxygen gradually diffuse through the EBC, and the EBC spalls off once the TGO layer reaches some critical thickness. The critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns, but it can vary due to exposure temperature, microstructure etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Revolutionary Tools and Methods (RTM) subproject is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. The effect of damage in the TGO layer on the resulting stress states is also assessed both in uniform and non-uniform TGO layers.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Computational Simulations of a Mach 0.745 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing Design

A joint effort between the NASA Ames and Langley Research Centers was undertaken to analyze the Mach 0.745 variant of the Boeing Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) Design. Two different flow solvers, LAVA and USM3D, were used to predict the TTBW flight performance. Sensitivity studies related to mesh resolution and numerical schemes were conducted to define best practices for this type of geometry and flow regime. Validation efforts compared the numerical simulation results of various modeling methods against experimental data taken from the NASA Ames 11-foot Unitary Wind Tunnel experimental data. The fidelity of the computational representation of the wind tunnel experiment, such as utilizing a porous wall boundary condition to model the ventilated test section, was varied to examine how different tunnel effects influence CFD predictions. LAVA and USM3D results both show an approximate 0.5 angle of attack shift from experimental lift curve data. This drove an investigation that revealed that the trailing edge of the experimental model was rounded in comparison to the CAD model, due to manufacturing tolerances, which had not been accounted for in the initial simulations of the experiment. Simulating the TTBW with an approximation of this rounded trailing-edge reduces error by approximately 60%. An accurate representation of the tested TTBW geometry, ideally including any wing twists and deflections experienced during the test under various loading conditions, will be necessary for proper validation of the CFD.

Maldonado, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Thermally-Grown Oxide (TGO) Layer on the Driving Forces Associated with Failure in Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) Systems

Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) is an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC) induced by thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from the silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. Critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns but it can vary due to exposure temperature, microstructure etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Revolutionary Tools and Methods (RTM) project is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers with or without damage on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. Initial results indicate that the presence of damage (vertical cracks caused by in-plane stresses) enhances the stresses that are present due to non-uniformity. However, the presence of non-uniformity itself is still the main factor influencing the magnitude of peel and shear stresses in the TGO layer.

Mital, Subodh K.↗