Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “SEAS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

The sea of quarks and antiquarks in the nucleon

The quark and gluon structure of the proton has been under intense experimental and theoretical investigation for five decades. Even for the distributions of the well-studied valence quarks, challenges such as the value of the down quark to up quark ratio at high fractional momenta remain. Much of the sea of quark-antiquark pairs emerges from the splitting of gluons and is well described by perturbative evolution in quantum chromodynamics. However, experiments confirm that there is a non-perturbative component to the sea that is not well understood and hitherto has been difficult to calculate with ab initio non-perturbative methods. This non-perturbative structure shows up, perhaps most directly, in the flavor dependence of the sea antiquark distributions. Even though some of the general trends can be reproduced by models, there are features of the data that do not seem to be well described. Conclusively, this article discusses the experimental situation, the status of calculations and models, and the directions where these studies will progress in the near future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed −1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Arctic Sea↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.

glaciers↗
NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Thermodynamic and Dynamic Contributions to Sea Ice Growth in the Central Arctic Using ICESat-2 and MOSAiC SIMBA Buoy Data

The fine spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 (IS2) satellite altimeter allows monitoring the evolution of sea ice thickness with detailed dynamic information (e.g. ridges and leads). In this study, we first assess the ability of IS2 to estimate thermodynamic ice growth and dynamic thickening during the ice-growing season in the central Arctic Ocean. As an indicator of the thermodynamic ice growth, we use 10 thermistor string-based sea ice mass balance array (SIMBA) buoys deployed at a scale of ~ 50 km from the Icebreaker Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. We collect IS2 data within 20 km buffer distance from the individual buoys, and calculate the mode, median, and mean of the IS2-derived ice thickness. The IS2 modal thickness shows the least bias (−0.169 m) with the buoy ice thickness, representing level ice thickness. In addition, the increasing rate of the IS2 modal thickness is close to the thermodynamic ice growth with a small bias of −0.054 cm/day. However, the increasing rates of the IS2 median and mean thickness are greater than the thermodynamic ice growth by about 0.114 cm/day and 0.198 cm/day, respectively, because they also include ice growth caused by thickness redistribution during dynamic deformation. The dynamic contributions may account for 26.1 ± 10.3% and 34.4 ± 10.1% of the total increase of the IS2 median and mean thickness, respectively. Within a ~ 50 km radius area from the MOSAiC Central Observatory, IS2 measurements exhibit that the ridge fraction increased from <2% in November to ~ 4% in March (~0.029%/day of average increasing rate) and ridge height increased about 0.047 cm/day during the same period. However, lead formation does not show significant contributions to the dynamic ice thickening because leads are temporary features lasting only 2–3 days. Although there are considerable uncertainties in IS2 ice thickness estimation and IS2-buoy thickness comparison, this study emphasizes the importance of combining measurements by IS2 and SIMBA buoys to explain the regional sea ice mass balance with separating the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions.

satellite altimeter↗
NASA NTRS2023

Upper Arctic Ocean Properties and Relationships with Sea Ice in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

While current-generation CMIP and OMIP models have clear biases in their upper Arctic Ocean hydrography, it is less clear how these biases impact the models' ability to simulate the observed Arctic sea ice mean state and trends. In this study we seek to quantify cross-relationship between sea ice and ocean states in CMIP6 historical simulations and identify common model behaviors. Multi-model mean (MMM) simulations exhibit accelerated changes in the ice and ocean system since the late 20th century. Underlying the MMM is strong inter-model variation in the simulated ice and ocean mean states and their temporal variability including trends. Despite such inter-model differences, all models show a similar ratio between sea ice reduction and upper ocean warming such that models with higher ocean warming also have higher SIE reduction and vice versa. Our results also highlight the urgent needs of reliable Arctic Ocean observations or data products in order to better contextualize modeling results.

Upper Arctic Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2016

The relationship between eruptive activity, flank collapse, and sea level at volcanic islands: A long-term (> 1 Ma) record offshore Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Hole U1395B, drilled southeast of Montserrat during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 340, provides a long (> 1 Ma) and detailed record of eruptive and mass-wasting events (> 130 discrete events). This record can be used to explore the temporal evolution in volcanic activity and landslides at an arc volcano. Analysis of tephra fall and volcaniclastic turbidite deposits in the drill cores reveals three heightened periods of volcanic activity on the island of Montserrat (~930 to ~900 ka, ~810 to ~760 ka, and ~190 to ~120 ka) that coincide with periods of increased volcano instability and mass-wasting. The youngest of these periods marks the peak in activity at the Soufrière Hills volcano. The largest flank collapse of this volcano (~130 ka) occurred toward the end of this period, and two younger landslides also occurred during a period of relatively elevated volcanism. These three landslides represent the only large (> 0.3 km 3 ) flank collapses of the Soufrière Hills edifice, and their timing also coincides with periods of rapid sea level rise (> 5 m/ka). Available age data from other island arc volcanoes suggest a general correlation between the timing of large landslides and periods of rapid sea level rise, but this is not observed for volcanoes in intraplate ocean settings. We furthermore infer that rapid sea level rise may modulate the timing of collapse at island arc volcanoes, but not in larger ocean-island settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spatially explicit network analysis reveals multi‐species annual cycle movement patterns of sea ducks

Abstract Conservation of long‐distance migratory species poses unique challenges. Migratory connectivity, that is, the extent to which groupings of individuals at breeding sites are maintained in wintering areas, is frequently used to evaluate population structure and assess use of key habitat areas. However, for species with complex or variable annual cycle movements, this traditional bimodal framework of migratory connectivity may be overly simplistic. Like many other waterfowl, sea ducks often travel to specific pre‐ and post‐breeding sites outside their nesting and wintering areas to prepare for migration by feeding extensively and, in some cases, molting their flight feathers. These additional migrations may play a key role in population structure, but are not included in traditional models of migratory connectivity. Network analysis, which applies graph theory to assess linkages between discrete locations or entities, offers a powerful tool for quantitatively assessing the contributions of different sites used throughout the annual cycle to complex spatial networks. We collected satellite telemetry data on annual cycle movements of 672 individual sea ducks of five species from throughout eastern North America and the Great Lakes. From these data, we constructed a multi‐species network model of migratory patterns and site use over the course of breeding, molting, wintering, and migratory staging. Our results highlight inter‐ and intra‐specific differences in the patterns and complexity of annual cycle movement patterns, including the central importance of staging and molting sites in James Bay, the St. Lawrence River, and southern New England to multi‐species annual cycle habitat linkages, and highlight the value of Long‐tailed Ducks ( Calengula haemalis ) as an umbrella species to represent the movement patterns of multiple sea duck species. We also discuss potential applications of network migration models to conservation prioritization, identification of population units, and integrating different data streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Computer Model Calibration Based on Image Warping Metrics: An Application for Sea Ice Deformation

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the global climate. Sea ice models governed by physical equations have been used to simulate the state of the ice including characteristics such as ice thickness, concentration, and motion. More recent models also attempt to capture features such as fractures or leads in the ice. These simulated features can be partially misaligned or misshapen when compared to observational data, whether due to numerical approximation or incomplete physics. In order to make realistic forecasts and improve understanding of the underlying processes, it is necessary to calibrate the numerical model to field data. Traditional calibration methods based on generalized least-square metrics are flawed for linear features such as sea ice cracks. We develop a statistical emulation and calibration framework that accounts for feature misalignment and misshapenness, which involves optimally aligning model output with observed features using cutting-edge image registration techniques. Here, this work can also have application to other physical models which produce coherent structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explicit quantification of residence and flushing times in the Salish Sea using a sub-basin scale shoreline resolving model

The Salish Sea, located in the Pacific Northwest region of North America has complex currents and circulation features distributed over numerous interconnected deep basins with islands. Increased risk of exposure to oil spills and untreated wastewater from maritime emergencies and treatment plant failures have led to a need for quantifying residence and flushing characteristics at a sub-basin scale using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model. An unstructured grid model of the Salish Sea was developed using FVCOM with a ≈75-100m shoreline resolution. In addition to 7 tides and 23 salinity and temperature monitoring stations, an extensive currents data set from 135 stations collected over a span of three years was used for skill assessment and validation. Explicit forward computations were then conducted to define and quantify residence and flushing times in various sub-basins of interest using (a) Lagrangian particles and (b) Numerical/virtual dye experiments. The results in most basins show expected seasonal variability with longer flushing time associated with summer lower tides and lower freshwater inflows. However, contrary to expectation, flushing time is significantly longer in wintertime in large fjord-like basins such as Hood Canal (≈138 days), likely due to increased stratification and reduced mixing. The flushing time for the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea is ≈115 days, while Georgia Basin is 240 days when analyzed as stand-alone basins with zero background concentrations. When examined as part of the flushing of the entire Puget Sound filled with virtual dye, the compounded flushing times for embedded sub-basins can be significantly longer in order of magnitudes and largely dictated by the flushing time of Puget Sound. The computed residence and flushing time scales tabulated over 36 sub-basins provide an improved understanding of water renewal in the system, informing pollution management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

The changing Chinese SEA indicator guidelines: Top-down or bottom-up?

In the last decades, China has introduced a set of indicators to guide the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice. The most recent indicator system proposed in 2009 is based on sector-specific guidelines and it found its justification in past negative experiences with more general guidelines (from 2003), which were mostly inspired by, or copied from, international experiences. Based on interviews with practitioners, researchers and administrators, we map and analyse the change in the national guidelines. This analysis is based on a description of the indicators that makes it possible to discern different aggregation levels of indicators and then trace the changes occurring under two sets of guidelines. The analysis also reveals the reasons and rationales behind the changes found in the guidelines. This analysis is inspired by implementation theory and a description of some of the more general trends in the development of SEA and other environmental policies in a recent Chinese context. Beside a more top-down, intentional approach specifying indicators for different sectors based on Chinese experiences from the preceding years, another significant change, following the new guidelines, is a more bottom-up approach which gives more discretion to practitioners. This entails a call for practitioners to make decisions on indicators, which involves an interpretation of the ones present in sector guidance. Highlights: • Focusing on the new Chinese national SEA guidelines proposed in 2009 • Mapping and analysing the most recent change in the indicator system • Revealing the reasons and rationales behind the changes found in the new guidelines • A top-down intention specifying indicators for different sectors • A bottom-up effect in giving discretion and interpretation of using indicators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

POPs in free-ranging pilot whales, sperm whales and fin whales from the Mediterranean Sea: Influence of biological and ecological factors

The pilot whale Globicephala melas, the sperm whale Physeter macrocephalus, and the fin whale Balaenoptera physalus are large cetaceans permanently inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea. These species are subjected to numerous anthropogenic threats such as exposure to high levels of contaminants. Therefore, selected persistent organic pollutants POPs (29 PCBs, 15 organochlorine compounds, 9 PBDEs and 17 PCDD/Fs) were analysed in blubber biopsies of 49 long-finned pilot whales, 61 sperm whales and 70 fin whales sampled in the North Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) from 2006 to 2013. Contamination profile and species feeding ecology were then combined through the use of stable isotopes. δ{sup 13}C, δ{sup 15}N values and POPs levels were assessed through IR-MS and GC–MS respectively. To assess the toxic potency of the dioxin-like compounds, the TEQ approach was applied. δ{sup 15}N values were 12.2±1.3‰ for sperm whales, 10.5±0.7‰ for pilot whales and 7.7±0.8‰ in fin whales, positioning sperm whales at higher trophic levels. δ{sup 13}C of the two odontocetes was similar and amounted to −17.3±0.4‰ for sperm whales and −17.8±0.3‰ for pilot whales; whilst fin whales were more depleted (−18.7±0.4‰). This indicates a partial overlap in toothed-whales feeding habitats, while confirms the differences in feeding behaviour of the mysticete. Pilot whales presented higher concentrations than sperm whales for ΣPCBs (38,666±25,731 ng g{sup −1} lw and 22,849±15,566 ng g{sup −1} lw respectively), ΣPBDEs (712±412 ng g{sup −1} lw and 347±173 ng g{sup −1} lw respectively) and ΣDDTs (46,081±37,506 ng g{sup −1} lw and 37,647±38,518 ng g{sup −1} lw respectively). Fin whales presented the lowest values, in accordance with its trophic position (ΣPCBs: 5721±5180 ng g{sup −1} lw, ΣPBDEs: 177±208 ng g{sup −1} lw and ΣDDTs: 6643±5549 ng g{sup −1} lw). Each species was characterized by large inter-individual variations that are more related to sex than trophic level, with males presenting higher contaminant burden than females. The discriminant analysis (DA) confirmed how DDTs and highly chlorinated PCBs were influential in differentiating the three species. Pollutant concentrations of our species were significantly higher than both their Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic counterparts, possibly due to the particular Mediterranean geomorphology, which influences pollutants distribution and recycle. Dioxin-like PCBs accounted for over 80% of the total TEQ. This study demonstrated (1) an important exposure to pollutants of Mediterranean cetaceans, often surpassing the estimated threshold toxicity value of 17,000 ng g{sup −1} lw for blubber in marine mammals; and (2) how the final pollutant burden in these animals is strongly influenced not only by the trophic position but also by numerous other factors such as sex, age, body size and geographical distribution. - Highlights: • We analysed POPs concentrations in cetaceans from North-western Mediterranean Sea. • We integrated δ{sup 13}C and δ{sup 15}N values to combine trophic position and contamination. • Odontocetes show PCBs level higher than the toxicity threshold of 17 μg g{sup −1} lw. • Trophic position, sex, body size and distribution affect interspecies diversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earthquake-triggered submarine canyon flushing transfers young terrestrial and marine organic carbon into the deep sea

Submarine canyons transfer substantial amounts of sediment and organic carbon (OC) into the deep ocean, nourishing deep-sea ecosystems and contributing to the global carbon cycle through OC burial and sequestration. Tracking lateral OC transport through submarine canyon systems is challenged by the deep-ocean setting, difficulties with constraining episodic depositional events, and the need to assess the composition and age of marine and terrestrial organic matter. We apply innovative parallel ramped pyrolysis oxidation accelerator mass spectrometry and pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with isotope analyses to track OC age and sources in the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake-triggered, canyon-flushing event that deposited along >1300 km of a submarine canyon-channel system, offshore Aotearoa New Zealand. Specifically, these techniques allow us to determine the ages, sources, and partitioning of OC within the Kaikoura turbidite deposit and test hypotheses of how submarine canyon systems contribute to lateral OC flux and burial. Our results show that, despite considerable canyon floor erosion, substantial amounts of young OC were flushed into the deep sea, with relatively little (~2%) pre-Holocene OC contributions. Even without a direct connection between rivers and submarine canyons, most (~55%) of the OC in the Kaikoura event bed is from terrestrial sources. However, the deposit also contains substantial amounts (~22%) of marine-derived OC and ~23% of the material is of unassignable origin. Particle sorting imparts variability on the age and composition of OC within turbidite deposits and along the turbidity current flow path. Terrestrial-derived OC is preferentially older than marine-derived OC and concentrated in coarser particle sizes found more commonly at the deposit base and in proximal settings. Young, marine-derived OC is concentrated at the surface of the deposits and tends to be enriched in finer particle sizes. Such OC partitioning in turbidites supports the relevance of depositional models for predicting and quantifying distribution of OC in deep-sea deposits. Earthquake-triggered, canyon flushing events and resulting turbidites enhance OC burial efficiency and can sequester OC effectively, contributing an important carbon sink to the sedimentary carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Basin scale distributions of dissolved manganese, nickel, zinc and cadmium in the Mediterranean Sea

Samples for dissolved trace metal concentrations were collected during GEOTRACES expedition GA04-N in summer/spring in the Mediterranean Sea, starting in the Atlantic Ocean and sampling both deep basins of the Mediterranean Sea. Outflow of Mediterranean Outflow Water leads to elevated concentrations of Mn, Ni and Zn in the Atlantic Ocean, but a concentration minimum in the Atlantic distribution of Cd. Nevertheless, when comparing the in- and outflow, the Mediterranean is a net source of Cd to the Atlantic Ocean. Surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd are elevated in the Mediterranean relative to the Atlantic Ocean where Ni and Cd gradually increased along the eastward surface water flow path, Zn reached a homogenous concentration in the order of 1 to 1.5 nM, and Mn displayed a patchy surface distribution. The observed differences are attributable to the different dynamics of their biogeochemical cycling, notably the partitioning between the dissolved and particulate phases due to biological uptake, scavenging and possibly organic complexation. The elevated surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Mediterranean are derived from atmospheric deposition, where most likely Zn and Cd are mainly sourced from anthropogenic origin, Mn mostly from lithogenic origin and Ni from both anthropogenic and lithogenic origin. Dissolved Zn and Cd, as well as phosphate and nitrate, display striking inter-basin fractionations with elevated concentrations in the deep water of the western basin compared to the deep eastern basin, without a coinciding increase in the apparent oxygen utilization. Given that physical circulation or contribution from biogenic particulate metals cannot explain the elevated dissolved concentrations, an external non-biological source is required. This source is most likely a vertical flux of metal laden particles dissolving through the water column of the western Mediterranean where these particles, most likely from anthropogenic origin, are derived from either atmospheric deposition or particulate material deposited on the continental shelves that makes its way into the deep basin. Furthermore, to confirm or detect trends in dissolved metal concentrations in the deep basin, regular basin wide assessments of the trace metal distributions in the Mediterranean are needed. The distributions of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Sea of Marmara illustrate that all of these metals can be affected by anthropogenic surface sources and highlight the different susceptibilities of the dissolved metal distributions to supply from remineralization, and to removal through scavenging. This study provides a first baseline to assess future changes and underlines that the Mediterranean marine environment is susceptible to anthropogenic disturbances, with varying effects for different metals due to differing source strengths and biogeochemical cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s ) and either energy period (T e ) or peak period (T p ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmental contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land

Arctic sea-ice retreat has been linked to increased winter precipitation and heavy snowfall over land, likely due to a combination of enhanced evaporation from ice-free Arctic marginal seas (AMS) and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, their relative roles and contributions remain uncertain. Here, we show that a greater proportion of AMS evaporative moisture reached high-latitude land during the cold seasons from 1980–1989 to 2012–2021. Atmospheric circulation changes added an additional 13 % increase in the AMS moisture contribution, accounting for 11 % of the total increase in AMS-sourced land precipitation. Notably, 46 % of the increase in AMS-sourced extreme snowfall is attributed to circulation-driven landward moisture transport, representing an 84 % increase beyond the effect of enhanced AMS evaporation alone. Further analysis indicates that both the rise in Arctic moisture and the atmospheric circulation shifts are primarily driven by anthropogenic forcing. These findings highlight how atmospheric circulation changes amplify extreme snowfall fueled by AMS evaporation, underscoring the synergistic effects of Arctic sea ice loss and circulation change on high-latitude winter precipitation.

Anthropogenic forcing↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effects of Sea Spray on Microphysics and Intensity of Deep Convective Clouds Under Strong Winds

Deep convective clouds similar to those arising in the tropical cyclone eyewall are simulated using a parcel model and 2–D slab symmetric cloud model with spectral bin microphysics (the Hebrew University Cloud Model). The size distribution of sea spray particles (SSPs) at cloud base is calculated using the Lagrangian–Eulerian bin microphysics model. The model describes the SSP production, advection, and formation of the size distribution of SSP in the hurricane atmospheric boundary layer at different strong wind speeds. The SSP distributions calculated by the Lagrangian–Eulerian bin microphysics model are used in the parcel model and the Hebrew University Cloud Model to investigate the microphysical and dynamical effects of SSP on clouds. The SSPs ascending in cloud updrafts dramatically increase the number concentration of cloud drops within a wide range of drop sizes. As a result, sea spray creates clouds with unique property combinations of both maritime and continental types. These clouds have droplet size distributions characterized by a high drop concentration and a low effective radius, as in continental clouds. At the same time, the presence of SSP of a few hundred microns in radii triggers intense rain just above the cloud base, which is typical of extreme maritime clouds. In the presence of large sea spray drops, the smallest cloud condensational nuclei, including the smallest SSP, are activated, giving rise to the permanent in–cloud nucleation of small droplets, which produce a high concentration of small ice crystals above the level of homogeneous freezing. We showed that the SSP substantially increased the maximum vertical velocity, cloud water content, and mass contents of ice particles. Here, the results are compared with available observed data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mooring and Seafloor Pressure End Point Measurements at the Southern Entrance of the Solomon Sea: Subseasonal to Interannual Flow Variability

Variability of the flow across the Solomon Sea's southern entrance was examined using end point subsurface moorings and seafloor pressure sensors, reconstructed velocity profiles based on satellite-derived surface velocity and bottom pressure-derived subsurface velocity, and 1993–2017 proxy volume transport based on satellite altimetry. The reconstructed velocity correctly represents the fluctuating surface flow and subsurface core providing a high-frequency continuous observing system for this sea. The mean equatorward volume transport over 0- to 500-m depth layer is 15.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3/s) during July 2012 to May 2017. The measurements resolve the full spectrum of the volume transport including energetic subseasonal variability that fluctuates by as much as 25 Sv over one week. At low-frequency timescales, the study finds that linear Rossby waves forced by Ekman pumping in the interior of the Pacific influence not only seasonal fluctuations as found by previous studies but also interannual variability. As found previously, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation highly influences interannual volume transport. During the 2015/2016 El Niño, observations show the seasonal cycle to be suppressed from the second half of 2014, prior to the mature phase of the El Niño, to September 2016 along with an increase in across-transect transport. At subseasonal timescales, local Ekman pumping and remote wind stress curl are responsible for a third of the subseasonal variance. Finally, the study highlights the importance of high-frequency observations at the southern entrance of the Solomon Sea and the ability of a linear Rossby model to represent the low-frequency variability of the transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗