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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output

Riverine floods pose a considerable risk to many communities. Improving flood hazard projections has the potential to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Current flood hazard projections are uncertain, especially due to uncertain model parameters. Calibration methods use observations to quantify model parameter uncertainty. With limited computational resources, researchers typically calibrate models using either relatively few expensive model runs at high spatial resolutions or many cheaper runs at lower spatial resolutions. This leads to an open question: is it possible to effectively combine information from the high and low resolution model runs? We propose a Bayesian emulation–calibration approach that assimilates model outputs and observations at multiple resolutions. As a case study for a riverine community in Pennsylvania, we demonstrate our approach using the LISFLOOD-FP flood hazard model. Here, the multiresolution approach results in improved parameter inference over the single resolution approach in multiple scenarios. Results vary based on the parameter values and the number of available models runs. Our method is general and can be used to calibrate other high dimensional computer models to improve projections.

multiresolution↗
NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) MBSE Initiatives

NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) program is developing several MagicDraw SysML models to support the development of high performance Nuclear Thermal Rocket Engines (NTRE). Currently, the Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations (DRACO) project is aiming to perform the first ever flight demonstration of an NTRE, and NASA is developing a DRACO Insight Project Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) model to capture, define, analyze, and report on the flight and ground test system architecture, functional behavior, requirements, risks, and lessons learned. Additional models are in work for engine component trade trees, fault detection sensor coverage analysis using a Goal Function Tree (GFT) plugin, stakeholder engagement, and technology maturation projects. The GFT plugin is the Galois, Inc. Failure Recovery Instruction Generation using Automata derived from Traditional Engineering models (FRIGATE) tool. A new capability for Jira to MagicDraw data sharing using the OpenPDM collaboration platform is under development with partner Victory Solutions, Inc. to enhance risk impact analysis.

Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neurovascular Outcomes of Space Radiation in Human Blood-Brain Barrier Models

One of the main health risks in human deep space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by ionizing radiation due to exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). In animal models, irradiation with simulated GCRs or their components has been shown to cause neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction. The extent of CNS damage is partially mediated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which regulates the interaction between CNS and systemic responses to stressors in the rest of the body. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuronal death, neuroinflammation and oxidative stress. However, studies on BBB and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses to ionizing radiation have been limited, especially in human tissue/organ analogs. Therefore, we developed a high-throughput 3D organ-on-a-chip system to study human CNS and BBB impairments caused by deep space radiation. We investigated both immediate and delayed CNS responses to major GCR components: 0.15-0.5Gy 250MeV/n 4He and 0.3-0.8Gy 600MeV/n 56Fe; as well as to 0.5-1Gy X-rays. We observed ionizing radiation-mediated increases in BBB permeability that was exacerbated by astrocyte presence and accompanied by damage to endothelial cells and tight junctions, altered cytokine expression including TNFalpha upregulation, and increased oxidative stress. In particular, 600MeV/n 56Fe particle irradiation selectively induced astrocyte damage and increased blood-brain barrier permeability only in models that contained astrocytes in addition to endothelial cells, indicating astrocytes as a particularly radiosensitive component of the CNS that could therefore be a suitable a target for neuroprotection. Future studies will compare human and mouse CNS model responses to simulated GCRs and evaluate the induction of an anti-inflammatory phenotype in astrocytes as a potential countermeasure. Ultimately, we aim to expand upon these results to uncover novel cellular and mechanistic targets for countermeasure development to mitigate human CNS damage in deep space exploration.

centrat nervous system↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neurovascular Outcomes of Ionizing Radiation in Human Blood-Brain Barrier Models

One of the main health risks in human deep space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by ionizing radiation due to exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). In animal models, irradiation with simulated GCRs or their components has been shown to cause neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction. The extent of CNS damage is partially mediated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which regulates the interaction between CNS and systemic responses to stressors in the rest of the body. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuronal death, neuroinflammation and oxidative stress. However, studies on BBB and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses to ionizing radiation have been limited, especially in human tissue/organ analogs. Therefore, we developed a high-throughput 3D organ-on-a-chip system to study human CNS and BBB impairments caused by deep space radiation. We investigated both immediate and delayed CNS responses to major GCR components: 0.15-0.5Gy 250MeV/n 4He and 0.3-0.8Gy 600MeV/n 56Fe; as well as to 0.5-1Gy X-rays. We observed ionizing radiation-mediated increases in BBB permeability that was exacerbated by astrocyte presence and accompanied by damage to endothelial cells and tight junctions, altered cytokine expression including TNFalpha upregulation, and increased oxidative stress. In particular, 600MeV/n 56Fe particle irradiation selectively induced astrocyte damage and blood-brain barrier permeability only in models that contained astrocytes in addition to endothelial cells, indicating astrocytes as a particularly radiosensitive component of the CNS that could therefore be a suitable a target for neuroprotection. Future studies will compare human and mouse CNS model responses to simulated GCRs and evaluate the induction of an anti-inflammatory phenotype in astrocytes as a potential countermeasure. Ultimately, we aim to expand upon these results to uncover novel cellular and mechanistic targets for countermeasure development to mitigate human CNS damage in deep space exploration.

space radiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a high current density, high temperature superconducting cable for pulsed magnets

Abstract A low AC loss Rare Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO) cable, based on the VIPER cable technology has been developed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems for use in high field, REBCO based tokamaks. The new cable is composed of partitioned and transposed copper ‘petals’ shaped to fit together in a circular pattern with each petal containing a REBCO tape stack and insulated from each other to reduce AC losses. A stainless steel jacket adds mechanical robustness—also serving as a vessel for solder impregnation—while a tube runs through the middle for cooling purposes. Additionally, fiber optic sensors are placed under the tape stacks for quench detection. To qualify this design, a series of experiments were conducted as part of the SPARC tokamak Central Solenoid Model Coil program—to retire the risks associated with full scale, fast ramping, high flux HTS Central Solenoid (CS) and Poloidal Field (PF) coils for tokamak fusion power plants and net energy demonstrators. These risk study and risk reduction experiments include (1) AC loss measurement and model validation in the range of ~5 T/s, (2) an IxB electromagnetic loading of over 850 kN/m at the cable level and up to 300 kN/m at the stack level, (3) a transverse compression resilience of over 350 MPa, (4) manufacturability at tokamak relevant speeds and scales, (5) cable to cable joint performance, (6) fiber optic based quench detection speed, accuracy, and feasibility, and (7) overall winding pack integration and magnet assembly. The result is a cable technology, now referred to as PIT VIPER, with AC losses that measure fifteen times lower (at ~5 T/s) than its predecessor technology; a 2% or lower degradation of critical current (Ic) at high IxB electromagnetic loads; no detectable Ic degradation up to 570 MPa of transverse compression on the cable unit cell; end to end magnet manufacturing, consistently producing Ic values within 7% of the model prediction; cable to cable joint resistances at 20 K on the order of ~15 nΩ; and fast, functional quench detection capabilities that do not involve voltage taps. This cable technology will be tested comprehensively in a Central Solenoid Model Coil to prove its readiness for compact, high field tokamak operation.

Sanabria, Charlie (ORCID:0000000150175309)↗
NASA NTRS2005

Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations

This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prioritizing Countries by Concern Regarding Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction Materials

This article presents a global prioritization methodology that evaluates the relative risks of non-state actor acquisition of materials that could be used in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high explosive Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) from the country’s relevant infrastructure. Prioritization is based on three domains: 1. Assessing relative scale of materials in each country, 2. The country’s corresponding security posture, and 3. The presence of threat actors. The output is a list of countries prioritized from greatest risk to least. Rather than providing an overall 1 to N ranking, however, the results are placed into tiers based upon their natural groupings within the three domains. The countries in the highest tiers are flagged as potential US national security concern; those scoring in the middle and at the bottom are flagged as posing lower US national security concern. A systematic approach assesses each country by leveraging many disciplines, such as risk and decision analysis, as well as expert judgement. A quantitative value model based on Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) organizes the objectives scoring criteria into a value tree using lessons learned from previous studies, published literature, and expert judgement. The article presents the prioritization categories and corresponding value model scoring criteria to include measurement type, weight, range, and value preference. Country names and data are notional in order to share the details on the underlying methodology and model without identification of actual security risks. A deliberative process addresses factors external to the model and scrutinizes inputs, methodology, model, and results.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

Packard, Michael H.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Single Integrated Flux Files to Account for Spacecraft Attitude Motion in Meteoroid Risk Assessments Using the NASA MEM3 and Bumper Codes

Spacecraft meteoroid risk assessments can be performed using NASA’s Meteoroid Engineering Model 3 (MEM3) and the Bumper risk assessment code. The MEM3 meteoroid flux is highly directional in heliocentric space. To represent the directionality, MEM3 outputs the flux in commonly used coordinate frames. For example, if a spacecraft attitude is fixed in the orbital tangential frame, a single Bumper run using the MEM3 flux file in the body-fixed frame can be performed. Cases exist in which the spacecraft does not remain fixed in one of these frames during a mission. This could be handled by performing a series of Bumper runs at points along the trajectory. For each trajectory point, the spacecraft has to be rotated into the frame in which the MEM3 flux file is defined. Another option presented here is to generate a single integrated flux (SIF) file. A SIF file is an average over a trajectory of the time varying MEM3 flux files rotated from their native frame into the spacecraft bus frame. A SIF file enables accounting for spacecraft rotation (coupled with flux variation over the trajectory) in a single Bumper run. An example of an application of SIF files is the meteoroid risk assessment for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign Capture Containment and Return System (CCRS). This report discusses how SIF files were generated for the CCRS risk assessment and presents metrics on the accuracy of the impinging fluence that is generated when using the files. The results show a maximum difference per element in a finite element model within 1 percent for seven of the eight examined cases, with the outlier being less than 2 percent. The results also show that the maximum standard deviation of differences across all elements is within 0.275 percent. The maximum difference in the total fluence across all the elements is 0.0463 percent. The maximum difference in the mean fluence across all the elements is 0.0407 percent.

Meteoroids↗
NASA NTRS1994

Prediction modeling of physiological responses and human performance in the heat with application to space operations

This institute has developed a comprehensive USARIEM heat strain model for predicting physiological responses and soldier performance in the heat which has been programmed for use by hand-held calculators, personal computers, and incorporated into the development of a heat strain decision aid. This model deals directly with five major inputs: the clothing worn, the physical work intensity, the state of heat acclimation, the ambient environment (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar load), and the accepted heat casualty level. In addition to predicting rectal temperature, heart rate, and sweat loss given the above inputs, our model predicts the expected physical work/rest cycle, the maximum safe physical work time, the estimated recovery time from maximal physical work, and the drinking water requirements associated with each of these situations. This model provides heat injury risk management guidance based on thermal strain predictions from the user specified environmental conditions, soldier characteristics, clothing worn, and the physical work intensity. If heat transfer values for space operations' clothing are known, NASA can use this prediction model to help avoid undue heat strain in astronauts during space flight.

Pandolf, Kent B.↗