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Statistical change detection of building energy consumption: Applications to savings estimation
The surge in interval meter data availability and associated activity in energy data analytics has inspired new interest in advanced methods for building efficiency savings estimation. Statistical and machine learning approaches are being explored to improve the energy baseline models used to measure and verify savings. One outstanding challenge is the ability to identify and account for operational changes that may confound savings estimates. In the measurement and verification (M&V) context, ‘non-routine events’ (NREs) cause changes in building energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model’s independent variables. In the M&V process NREs must be accounted for as ‘adjustments’ to appropriately attribute the estimated energy savings to the specific efficiency interventions that were implemented. Currently this is a manual and custom process, conducted using professional judgment and engineering expertise. As such it remains a barrier in scaling and standardizing meter-based savings estimation. Here in this work, a data driven methodology was developed to (partially) automate, and therefore streamline the process of detecting NREs in the post-retrofit period and making associated savings adjustments. The proposed NRE detection algorithm is based on a statistical change point detection method and a dissimilarity metric. The dissimilarity metric measures the proximity between the actual time series of the post-retrofit energy consumption and the projected baseline, which is generated using a statistical baseline model. The suggested approach for NRE adjustment involves the NRE detection algorithm, the M&V practitioner, and a regression modeling algorithm. The performance of the detection and adjustment algorithm was evaluated using a simulation-generated test data set, and two benchmark algorithms. Results show a high true positive detection rate (75%-100% across the test cases), higher than ideal false positive detection rates (20%-70%), and low errors in energy adjustment (<0.7%). These results indicate that the algorithm holds for helping M&V practitioners to streamline the process of handling NREs. Moreover, the change point algorithm and underlying statistical principles could prove valuable for other building analytics applications such as anomaly detection and fault diagnostics.
Evaluation of Phase Change Plaster/Paste Composites for Building Envelopes
Thermal energy storage (TES) materials increase a building’s thermal mass and provide the flexibility to shave and time-shift energy use. These materials are needed to enable grid-interactive efficient buildings, allowing building occupants to lower costs by leveraging free ambient heating/cooling as well as shifting consumption to cheaper electricity periods. Phase change materials (PCMs) that store heat through a solid-liquid/solid-solid transformation are of particular interest for TES because of their ability to store large amounts of energy across a constant temperature or very small temperature range. Furthermore, previous studies on PCM building envelopes evaluated products that may only be incorporated as part of new construction and are not easily applicable to existing, energy-intensive buildings. In this work, we leverage laboratory PCM characterization and whole-building energy simulation to study the energy and cost savings of PCM plaster/paste coatings, which can be applied post construction to both new builds and retrofits of existing buildings (about 40% of residential buildings in the United States fall into the retrofit category). We evaluated the energy impact of PCM plaster/paste composites for a single-family residential building in the United States, including layer design (location and thickness), composite properties (phase change temperature, energy density, and shape of the enthalpy curve), and U.S. climate zone. The enthalpy curve shape of PCM shows that phase change temperature and energy density are not the only two parameters that must be considered for PCM selection. Maximizing the energy density amid the effective TES zone is key to boosting energy savings. We also studied PCM price targets with the aim of achieving reasonable payback periods based on both block and time-of-use electricity rates. Moreover, we developed an empirical equation to provide a rough estimate of the energy savings potential of incorporating PCM without the need to perform detailed simulations. These results will help guide the selection and design of PCM plaster/paste composite elements for residential building envelopes.
Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030
Here, this study uses bottom-up modeling framework in order to quantify potential energy savings and emission reduction impacts from the implementation of energy efficiency programs in the building sector in China. Policies considered include (1) accelerated building codes in residential and commercial buildings, (2) increased penetration of district heat metering and controls, (3) district heating efficiency improvement, (4) building energy efficiency labeling programs and (5) retrofits of existing commercial buildings. Among these programs, we found that the implementation of building codes provide by far the largest savings opportunity, leading to an overall 17% reduction in overall space heating and cooling demand relative to the baseline. Second are energy efficiency labels with 6%, followed by reductions of losses associated with district heating representing 4% reduction and finally, retrofits representing only about a 1% savings.
Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market
China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.
Optimization of energy requirements for CO 2 post-combustion capture process through advanced thermal integration
The energy optimization modeling work described here was performed to determine efficiency improvements that could be achieved for existing coal-fired power plants to retrofit a partial CO 2 capture from the post-combustion flue gas for carbon sequestration through thermal integration. The work presented includes optimization of the mono-ethanol amine (MEA)-based post-combustion CO 2 capture to reduce energy requirements that could be achieved at existing power plants by thermal integration of the steam turbine cycle, boiler, CO 2 compression train and post-combustion CO 2 capture process to offset efficiency and capacity losses that would be incurred by retrofit or implementation of post-combustion CO 2 capture. Furthermore, partial CO 2 capture, involving treatment of less than 100% of the flue gas leaving the plant and modular design of the CO 2 scrubbing system, was also investigated. Thermal integration of the steam turbine cycle with boiler and CO 2 compression train improved cycle and plant performance and offset, in part, the negative effects of post-combustion CO 2 capture. The best-analyzed integration options improved gross power output by 5% and net unit efficiency by 1.57%, relative to the conventional MEA process. Operating with 40% CO 2 capture increased gross power output by 11.6–14% (depending on the MEA thermal integration option), relative to the conventional MEA integration and 90% CO 2 capture. The improvement in net unit performance is larger compared to the improvement in turbine cycle performance because of the CO 2 compression work, which is also reduced by partial CO 2 capture.
Meeting sustainable aviation fuel policy targets through first generation corn biorefineries
This paper investigates options to produce low carbon and renewable aviation fuel through existing commercial first generation biorefineries, which could be strategic given the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market for personal mobility. We evaluate the environmental impact of retrofitting a first generation biorefinery to produce aviation fuel through chemical process simulation. The analysis investigates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and displacing fossil fuel (petroleum-based jet kerosene) in the aviation fuel industry through using corn feedstocks in dry grind biorefineries to convert sugars to 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), which qualifies as renewable jet-A fuel blend and is infrastructure compatible. Further, the average life cycle GHG emissions for a baseline case and a scenario with carbon capture and storage (CCS) of fermentative CO 2 are 36 and 5g CO 2 e/MJ DMCO, respectively. Investment in CCS at the biorefinery and adoption of crop best management practices on farms are essential for mitigating the risks of induced land use change GHG emissions for existing corn biorefineries. DMCO as a low-carbon aviation fuel could be a strategic fuel product for retrofitting existing corn dry grind facilities. For aviation fuel supply, corn dry grind facilities could displace about 12% of jet fuel demand in the near term, which would meet sustainable aviation fuel policy targets. We conclude that corn-to-DMCO shows promise for near-term low-carbon fuel markets in the aviation industry and as a bridge to developing biomass-based jet fuel in the future.
The HydroBio Dataset: a new data resource for evaluating existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity in the conterminous United States
Hydropower is a critical source of affordable and reliable electricity and energy system stability services in the United States. Opportunities to expand US hydropower production include retrofitting existing non-powered dams to produce power, retrofitting existing hydropower dams to improve efficiency or increase capacity, or constructing new hydropower infrastructure on currently unregulated river reaches. We created the HydroBio Dataset, which summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin scale in the conterminous US to contextualize existing and potential grid contributions with the freshwater ecosystems in which dams are situated. We demonstrate a use-case of this dataset by rescaling and comparing potential non-powered dam nominal capacity to rarity-threat-weighted freshwater species richness for sub-basins where both types of data exist. On average, normalized freshwater biodiversity exceeded normalized potential non-powered dam nominal capacity in these sub-basins. Potential non-powered dam nominal capacity was concentrated in sub-basins in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio hydrologic regions while freshwater biodiversity was concentrated in the South Atlantic-Gulf, Ohio, and Tennessee hydrologic regions. Additionally, non-powered dams and existing hydropower dams are located in sub-basins with similar indices of freshwater biodiversity. The HydroBio Dataset adds an additional ecological dimension of context to our understanding of current and potential future US hydropower capabilities and is a valuable decision support tool for stakeholders tasked with balancing gains in services to the US power grid with the public and environmental benefits of freshwater ecosystems.
Exploring the cost and emissions impacts, feasibility and scalability of battery electric ships
The United States’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals, along with targets set by the International Maritime Organization, create an opportunity for battery electric shipping. In this study, we model life-cycle costs and GHG emissions from shipping electrification, leveraging ship activity datasets from across the United States in 2021. We estimate that retrofitting 6,323 domestic ships under 1,000 gross tonnage to battery electric vessels would reduce US domestic shipping GHG emissions by up to 73% by 2035 from 2022 levels. By 2035, electrifying up to 85% of these ships could become cost effective versus internal combustion engine ships if they cover 99% of annual trips and charge from a deeply decarbonized grid. We find that charging demands from electrifying these ships could be concentrated at just 20 of 150 major ports nationwide. This study demonstrates that retrofitting to battery electric vessels has economic potential and could significantly accelerate GHG emission reductions.
The multi-spectral line-polarization MSE system on Alcator C-Mod
A multi-spectral line-polarization motional Stark effect (MSE-MSLP) diagnostic has been developed for the Alcator C-Mod tokamak wherein the Stokes vector is measured in multiple wavelength bands simultaneously on the same sightline to enable better polarized background subtraction. A ten-sightline, four wavelength MSE-MSLP detector system was designed, constructed, and qualified. This system consists of a high-throughput polychromator for each sightline designed to provide large étendue and precise spectral filtering in a cost-effective manner. Each polychromator utilizes four narrow bandpass interference filters and four custom large diameter avalanche photodiode detectors. Two filters collect light to the red and blue of the MSE emission spectrum while the remaining two filters collect the beam pi and sigma emission generated at the same viewing volume. The filter wavelengths are temperature tuned using custom ovens in an automated manner. All system functions are remote controllable and the system can be easily retrofitted to existing single-wavelength line-polarization MSE systems.
The Use of High-Density UN Fuel in Heat-Pipe Microreactors
Heat-pipe microreactors (HPMRs) are very small-scale nuclear reactors that employ heat pipes (HPs) for heat removal. HPMRs can be easily integrated with other forms of renewable energies, can be used for emergency responses to disaster relief zones, can be deployed in remote locations not connected to the grid, and can be removed from sites and replaced by new ones. HPMRs can also be used for space missions as HPs do not rely on gravity for heat transfer. Conventional fuel materials, such as uranium oxide (UO 2 ) and uranium oxycarbide (UCO), are currently considered in most existing HPMR designs, but ceramic uranium nitride (UN) fuel that has high uranium density, high thermal conductivity, and high melting point may become a better fuel candidate. Through neutronics calculations, this paper assesses the impact of using UN fuel in HPMRs with two different neutron spectra (fast and thermal) and two different fuel forms [traditional solid fuel pellets and TRi-structural-ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel compacts]. It was concluded that retrofitting HPMRs with UN fuel has the potential to reduce the initial 235 U enrichment requirement by ~3 wt% (to keep the same cycle length) or increase the cycle length (by keeping the same initial 235 U enrichment), which enables more compact and transportable HPMR core designs. However, using UN fuel decreases the control element worth [by up to 20% for the Special Purpose Reactor (SPR) and 5% for HP-MR] and is up to 80% more costly. Increasing 15 N enrichment can further decrease the initial 235 U enrichment requirement and increase the control element worth but is more costly. In conclusion, compared to fast-spectrum HPMRs fueled with solid pellet fuels, retrofitting UN fuel is more suitable for thermal-spectrum HPMRs fueled with TRISO fuel compacts, where the neutron spectrum hardening caused by using UN is less significant.
Assessing overall building energy performance of a large population of residential single-family homes using limited field data
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through the Building Energy Codes Program (BECP), supports building energy code development and implementation processes to achieve the maximum practicable, cost-effective improvements in energy efficiency while providing safe, healthy buildings for occupants. Currently, there is a lack of statistically representative data that shows how energy codes are implemented in the field and the energy savings opportunities that exist. To address this gap, DOE initiated a research study targeted at new residential single-family homes in 8 states starting in the fall of 2014. The study comprises of a baseline phase to determine current levels of compliance with the key energy provisions of the residential building energy code, identify issues, and calculate potential energy savings from improved compliance; a second phase implementing education, training and outreach activities designed to increase targeted code compliance; and a post-study phase to measure the impact of the training and outreach activities compared to the baseline phase. Initial analyses determined the code requirements with the largest energy impact and the minimum number of observations required to detect statistically significant differences in energy use. Data was collected in the field during a single site visit to avoid bias from repeat visits. However, the single site visit principle prevented energy simulation of individual homes due to the lack of all required model inputs. To address this, energy simulation was conducted using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s prototype building models and employing bootstrap random sampling on the data collected from all homes visited. The modeled energy consumption using the observed field data was evaluated relative to that associated with the minimum code requirements and potential savings associated with improved compliance of select items were assessed. This paper discusses the methodology developed for this field study, and presents the results and findings from the baseline phase.
Vehicular integration of wireless power transfer systems and hardware interoperability case studies
Several wireless charging methods are under development or available as an aftermarket option in the light-duty automotive market. However, there are not a sufficient number of studies detailing the vehicle integration methods, particularly a complete vehicle integration with higher power levels. This paper presents the design, development, implementation, and vehicle integration of wireless power transfer (WPT)-based electric vehicle (EV) charging systems for various test vehicles. Before having the standards effective, it is expected that WPT technology first will be integrated as an aftermarket retrofitting approach. Inclusion of this technology on production vehicles is contingent upon the release of the international standards. The power stages of the system are introduced with the design specifications and control systems including the active front-end rectifier with power factor correction, high frequency power inverter, high frequency isolation transformer, coupling coils, vehicle side full-bridge rectifier and filter, and the vehicle battery. The operating principles of the control, and communications, systems are presented. Aftermarket conversion approaches including the WPT on-board charger (OBC) integration, WPT CHAdeMO integration, and WPT direct battery connection scenarios are described. Finally, the experiments are carried out using the integrated vehicles and the results obtained to demonstrate the system performance including the stage-by-stage efficiencies.
Foundations for the Future Power System: Inverter-Based Resource Interconnection Standards
As power systems evolve to become reliant on solar, wind, batteries, and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), it is essential that those resources meet certain minimum performance and capability criteria designed to ensure the power system operates stably and reliably. Because those criteria, as enshrined in interconnection standards, take years to develop and are very long lived, they need to account for not only the present state of the power system but also its expected future state over the lifetime of the power plants to which they will apply. In addition, they need to be specific enough to ensure reliability without over specifying and, thereby, impeding innovation. Because power systems are shifting rapidly from a state where IBRs make up a small to medium portion of generation to one where the generation will, at times, come predominantly from IBRs, interconnection standards are especially challenging to develop today. Good interconnection standards can make the power system more reliable and less costly to operate, whereas poorly designed standards can lead to major problems, like the famous German 50.2-Hz problem, which introduced a risk of losing many gigawatts of solar on a frequency excursion and resulted in many IBRs being retrofitted at great cost to mitigate a major system reliability risk. Readying the power system by specifying forward-looking technical minimum functional capabilities for IBRs can be an effective approach to avoid future retrofits.
Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems
Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.
Low-cost embedded optical sensing systems for distribution transformer monitoring
There is a mounting need for low-cost monitoring with online sensing technologies to maintain grid reliability and uptime. Here we introduce an innovative low-cost, embedded optical sensing technology initially focused on transformers that was developed and demonstrated at a major electric utility, Con Edison. A version of it that can be retrofitted onto existing transformers in the field was also developed. Two new 500 kVA distribution network transformers were built with embedded fiber-optic (FO) sensors and qualified per industry standards. Vibration, temperature, and corrosion were key parameters monitored. The first transformer with embedded FO sensors was installed at a Con Edison facility and monitored at our team’s office. The second one was installed in an urban street-side underground location with online data processing/feature extraction algorithms and monitored through a wireless router. Additionally, an older transformer was also retrofitted. Data analysis was done on these transformers showing promising correlations with their corresponding loading cycles. Furthermore, key events such as the transformer primary-side energizing, and other events were detected. In general, the technology was demonstrated over 6 months across the 3 transformers instrumented with promising results. Thus, it has the potential to enable predictive maintenance for transformers and other grid assets.
UrbanScaping: Community Spatial Data Visualization & Analytics
Evaluating the electrification potential of buildings through retrofitting is crucial for reducing carbon emissions and the carbon footprint of built environments. This study leverages the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software, integrating the Model America database to create an urban context-based spatial analysis platform for community engagement and development. We selected Camp Hill Borough, PA, as a case study to analyze building-specific energy performance and evaluate the electrification potential of each building by switching to different Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems and measurement components. The simulation results generated by the workflow provide retrofitting suggestions to help mitigate the carbon footprint as well as energy saving statistics of buildings. Additionally, the developed web-based interface serves as a community engagement platform, allowing residents to provide feedback and further develop interactive communication protocols. The outcomes of this project offer a baseline for community electrification planning and contribute to the design of low-carbon communities.
INVESTIGATION INTO REACTIVITY SEPARATION BETWEEN DIRECT INJECTED AND PREMIXED FUELS IN RCCI COMBUSTION MODE
This experimental study focuses on the effects of the reactivity separation between the port injected fuel and the direct injection fuel, the amount of external-cooled exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), and the direct injection timing of the high reactivity fuel on Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) combustion. The experiments were conducted on a lightduty, single-cylinder diesel engine with a production GM/Isuzu engine head and piston and a retrofitted port fuel injection system. The global charge-mass equivalence ratio, ϕ′, was fixed at 0.32 throughout all of the experiments. To investigate the effects of the fuel reactivity separation, different Primary Reference Fuels (PRF) were port injected, with the PRF number varying from 50 to 90. To investigate the effects of EGR, an EGR range of 0 to 55% was used. To investigate the effects of the injection timing, an injection timing window of -65 to -45 degrees ATDC was chosen. The results indicate that there are several tradeoffs. First, decreasing the port injected fuel reactivity (increasing the PRF number) delays combustion phasing, decreases the combustion efficiency by up to 9%, increases the gross indicated thermal efficiency up to 22%, enhances the combustion sensitivity to the direct injection timing, and slightly increases the UHC, CO, and NOx emissions. Second, increasing the EGR percentage delays combustion phasing, lowers the peak heat release rate, and lowers the NOx emissions. The combustion efficiency first increases and then decreases with EGR percentage for high reactivity fuels (low PRF number), but only decreases for low reactivity fuels. Finally, delaying the injection timing advances combustion phasing and increases the combustion efficiency, but decreases the gross indicated thermal efficiency and increases the NOx emissions. Across all of the experiments, delays in CA50 increase the gross indicated thermal efficiency and decrease the combustion efficiency, which represents an inherent tradeoff for RCCI combustion on a lightduty engine.