Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Probability distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49

The radio-optical-X-ray spectral flux distributions of blazars

Ten confirmed and probable BL Lac objects were searched for X-ray emission using the Einstein Observatory. All 10 were detected. These data were combined with existing data to form a catalog of 99 confirmed (by measured, high, optical linear polarization) and probable blazars (BL Lac objects and highly polarized quasars). Radio, optical, and X-ray observations are available for 77 of these. One of the ten program objects was observed at four epochs during large radio and optical outbursts. The correlations of radio, optical, and X-ray luminosities are examined.

Ledden, J. E.↗

On the use of the noncentral chi-square density function for the distribution of helicopter spectral estimates

A probability density function for the variability of ensemble averaged spectral estimates from helicopter acoustic signals in Gaussian background noise was evaluated. Numerical methods for calculating the density function and for determining confidence limits were explored. Density functions were predicted for both synthesized and experimental data and compared with observed spectral estimate variability.

Garber, Donald P.↗

Time analysis of volcanic activity on Io by means of plasma observations

A model of Io volcanism in which the probability of activity obeys a binomial distribution is presented. Observed values of the electron density obtained over a 3-year period by ground-based spectroscopy are fitted to such a distribution. The best fit is found for a total number of 15 volcanoes with a probability of individual activity at any time of 0.143. The Pioneer 10 ultraviolet observations are reinterpreted as emissions of sulfur and oxygen ions and are found to be consistent with a plasma much less dense than that observed by the Voyager spacecraft. Late 1978 and the first half of 1979 are shown to be periods of anomalous volcanicity. Rapid variations in electron density are related to enhanced radial diffusion.

Mekler, Y.↗

Crater Topography on Titan: Implications for Landscape Evolution

We present a comprehensive review of available crater topography measurements for Saturn's moon Titan. In general, the depths of Titan's craters are within the range of depths observed for similarly sized fresh craters on Ganymede, but several hundreds of meters shallower than Ganymede's average depth vs. diameter trend. Depth-to-diameter ratios are between 0.0012 +/- 0.0003 (for the largest crater studied, Menrva, D approximately 425 km) and 0.017 +/- 0.004 (for the smallest crater studied, Ksa, D approximately 39 km). When we evaluate the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit parameter, we find that there is less than a 10% probability that Titan's craters have a current depth distribution that is consistent with the depth distribution of fresh craters on Ganymede. There is, however, a much higher probability that the relative depths are uniformly distributed between 0 (fresh) and 1 (completely infilled). This distribution is consistent with an infilling process that is relatively constant with time, such as aeolian deposition. Assuming that Ganymede represents a close 'airless' analogue to Titan, the difference in depths represents the first quantitative measure of the amount of modification that has shaped Titan's surface, the only body in the outer Solar System with extensive surface-atmosphere exchange.

Implications↗

A Search Model for Imperfectly Detected Targets

Under the assumptions that 1) the search region can be divided up into N non-overlapping sub-regions that are searched sequentially, 2) the probability of detection is unity if a sub-region is selected, and 3) no information is available to guide the search, there are two extreme case models. The search can be done perfectly, leading to a uniform distribution over the number of searches required, or the search can be done with no memory, leading to a geometric distribution for the number of searches required with a success probability of 1/N. If the probability of detection P is less than unity, but the search is done otherwise perfectly, the searcher will have to search the N regions repeatedly until detection occurs. The number of searches is thus the sum two random variables. One is N times the number of full searches (a geometric distribution with success probability P) and the other is the uniform distribution over the integers 1 to N. The first three moments of this distribution were computed, giving the mean, standard deviation, and the kurtosis of the distribution as a function of the two parameters. The model was fit to the data presented last year (Ahumada, Billington, & Kaiwi, 2 required to find a single pixel target on a simulated horizon. The model gave a good fit to the three moments for all three observers.

Ahumada, Albert↗

The Error Distribution of BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Locations

Empirical probability models for BATSE gamma-ray burst (GRB) location errors are developed via a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 392 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 19 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4Br BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the probability in a "core" term with a systematic error of 1.85 deg and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.1 deg, which implies a 68% confidence radius for bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties of 2.2 deg. There is evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE data type that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT data type, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence radius for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties is 2.0 deg.

Briggs, Michael S.↗

Surface sticking probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103

The capture coefficient probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103 incident on Al2O3 surfaces were measured using the backscattering of MeV heavy ions. In the circumstance where the collecting surface is thickly covered, the sticking probabilities integrated over the energy distribution of sputtered atoms are 0.97 plus or minus 0.01 for Nb-93 and 0.95 plus or minus 0.01 for Rh-103 respectively. In the limit of negligible areal coverage of the collector, the accuracy is less; in this case the sticking probabilities are 0.97 + 0.03 or -0.08 and 0.95 + 0.05 or -0.08.

Weller, M. R.↗

Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5Ma

A new statistical model is proposed for the geomagnetic secular variation over the past 5Ma. Unlike previous models, the model makes use of statistical characteristics of the present day geomagnetic field. The spatial power spectrum of the non-dipole field is consistent with a white source near the core-mantle boundary with Gaussian distribution. After a suitable scaling, the spherical harmonic coefficients may be regarded as statistical samples from a single giant Gaussian process; this is the model of the non-dipole field. The model can be combined with an arbitrary statistical description of the dipole and probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions can be computed for declination and inclination that would be observed at any site on Earth's surface. Global paleomagnetic data spanning the past 5Ma are used to constrain the statistics of the dipole part of the field. A simple model is found to be consistent with the available data. An advantage of specifying the model in terms of the spherical harmonic coefficients is that it is a complete statistical description of the geomagnetic field, enabling us to test specific properties for a general description. Both intensity and directional data distributions may be tested to see if they satisfy the expected model distributions.

Constable, C. G.↗

Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5 m.y

A new statistical model is proposed for the geomagnetic secular variation over the past 5Ma. Unlike previous models, the model makes use of statistical characteristics of the present day geomagnetic field. The spatial power spectrum of the non-dipole field is consistent with a white source near the core-mantle boundary with Gaussian distribution. After a suitable scaling, the spherical harmonic coefficients may be regarded as statistical samples from a single giant Gaussian process; this is the model of the non-dipole field. The model can be combined with an arbitrary statistical description of the dipole and probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions can be computed for declination and inclination that would be observed at any site on Earth's surface. Global paleomagnetic data spanning the past 5Ma are used to constrain the statistics of the dipole part of the field. A simple model is found to be consistent with the available data. An advantage of specifying the model in terms of the spherical harmonic coefficients is that it is a complete statistical description of the geomagnetic field, enabling us to test specific properties for a general description. Both intensity and directional data distributions may be tested to see if they satisfy the expected model distributions.

Constable, C. G.↗

Non-gaussian statistics of pencil beam surveys

We study the effect of the non-Gaussian clustering of galaxies on the statistics of pencil beam surveys. We derive the probability from the power spectrum peaks by means of Edgeworth expansion and find that the higher order moments of the galaxy distribution play a dominant role. The probability of obtaining the 128 Mpc/h periodicity found in pencil beam surveys is raised by more than one order of magnitude, up to 1%. Further data are needed to decide if non-Gaussian distribution alone is sufficient to explain the 128 Mpc/h periodicity, or if extra large-scale power is necessary.

Amendola, Luca↗

The impact cratering record on Triton

Impact craters on Triton are scarce owing to the relatively recent resurfacing by icy melts. The most heavily cratered surface has a crater density about the same as the lunar maria. The transition diameter from simple to complex craters occurs at a diameter of about 11 kilometers, and the depth-diameter relationship is similar to that of other icy satellites when gravity is taken into account. The crater size-frequency distribution has a differential -3 slope (cumulative -2 slope) and is the same as that for the fresh crater population on Miranda. The most heavily cratered region is on the leading hemisphere in Triton's orbit. Triton may have a leading-trailing asymmetry in its crater population. Based primarily on the similarity of size distributions on Triton and Miranda and the relatively young surface on Triton, the source of Triton's craters is probably comets. The very peculiar size distribution of sharp craters on the 'cantaloupe' terrain and other evidence suggests thay are volcanic explosion craters.

Strom, Robert G.↗

Boosting with Averaged Weight Vectors

AdaBoost is a well-known ensemble learning algorithm that constructs its constituent or base models in sequence. A key step in AdaBoost is constructing a distribution over the training examples to create each base model. This distribution, represented as a vector, is constructed to be orthogonal to the vector of mistakes made by the previous base model in the sequence. The idea is to make the next base model's errors uncorrelated with those of the previous model. Some researchers have pointed out the intuition that it is probably better to construct a distribution that is orthogonal to the mistake vectors of all the previous base models, but that this is not always possible. We present an algorithm that attempts to come as close as possible to this goal in an efficient manner. We present experimental results demonstrating significant improvement over AdaBoost and the Totally Corrective boosting algorithm, which also attempts to satisfy this goal.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

Probability of cell hits in selected organs and tissues by high-LET particles at the ISS orbit

The fluence of high-LET particles (HLP) with LET infinity H2O greater than 15 keV micrometers-1 in selected organs and tissues were measured with plastic nuclear track detectors using a life-size human phantom on the 9th Shuttle-Mir Mission (STS-91). The planar-track fluence of HLP during the 9.8-day mission ranged from 1.9 x 10(3) n cm-2 (bladder) to 5.1 x 10(3) n cm-2 (brain) by a factor of 2.7. Based on these data, a probability of HLP hits to a matured cell of each organ or tissue was roughly estimated for a 90-day ISS mission. In the calculation, all cells were assumed to be spheres with a geometric cross-sectional area of 500 micrometers2 and the cell-hit frequency from isotropic space radiation can be described by the Poisson-distribution function. As results, the probability of one or more than 1 hit to a single cell by HLP for 90 days ranged from 17% to 38%; that of two or more than 2 hits was estimated to be 1.3-8.2%. c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Statistical structural analysis of rotor impact ice shedding

The statistical characteristics of impact ice shear strength are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the most probable shear strength and statistical distribution of an ice deposit. Several distribution types are considered: the Weibull, two-parameter Weibull, and exponential distributions, as well as the Gumbell distribution of the smallest extreme and the Gumbell distribution of the largest extreme. It is concluded that the Weibull distribution yields the best results; however, the expected life, shape parameter, and scale parameter should be determined separately for each case of varying wind speed and droplet size. The theoretical predictions of shear stresses in a specific rotating ice shape are compared, and it is noted that when the effects of lift are added to the theoretical model and the interference is calculated with a new mean and standard deviation, the probability of ice shed is computed as 36.64 pct.

Kellacky, C. J.↗

Investigations of Air-Cooled Turbine Rotors for Turbojet Engines. 1: Experimental Disk Temperature Distribution in Modified J33 Split-Disk Rotor at Speeds up to 6000 RPM

An experimental investigation is being conducted at the Lewis laboratory to establish general principles for the design of noncritical turbine rotor configurations. This investigation includes evaluation of cooling effectiveness, structural stability, cooling-air flow distribution characteristics, and methods of supplying cooling air to the turbine rotor blades. Prior to design of a noncritical rotor, a standard turbine rotor of a commerical turbojet engine was split in the plane of rotation and machined to provide a passage for distributing cooling air to the base of each blade. The rotor was fitted with nontwisted, hollow, aircooled blades containing nine tubes in the coolant passage. In the investigation reported herein, the modified turbine rotor operated successfully up to speeds of 6000 rpm with ratios of cooling-air to combustion-gas flow as low as 0.02. The disk temperatures observed at these conditions were below 450 0 F when cooling air at 100 F was used from the laboratory air system. The calculated disk temperatures based on the correlation method presented for rated engine conditions were well below 1000 F at a cooling-air flow ratio of 0.02, which is considered adequate for a noncritical rotor. An appreciable difference in temperature level existed between the forward and rear disks. This temperature difference probably introduced undesirable disk stress distributions as a result of the relative elongations of the two disks. This investigation was terminated at 6000 rpm so that slight changes in the engine configuration could be made to relieve this condition.

Schramm, Wilson B.↗

Small-Scale Spatial Fluctuations in the Soft X-Ray Background

In order to isolate the diffuse extragalactic component of the soft X-ray background, we have used a combination of ROSAT All-Sky Survey and IRAS 100 micron data to separate the soft X-ray background into five components. We find a Local Hot Bubble similar to that described by Snowden et al (1998). We make a first calculation of the contribution by unresolved Galactic stars to the diffuse background. We constrain the normalization of the Extragalactic Power Law (the contribution of the unresolved extragalactic point sources such as AGN, QSO'S, and normal galaxies) to 9.5 +/- 0.9 keV/(sq cm s sr keV), assuming a power-law index of 1.46. We show that the remaining emission, which is some combination of Galactic halo emission and the putative diffuse extragalactic emission, must be composed of at least two components which we have characterized by thermal spectra. The softer component has log T - 6.08 and a patchy distribution; thus it is most probably part of the Galactic halo. The harder component has log T - 6.46 and is nearly isotropic; some portion may be due to the Galactic halo and some portion may be due to the diffuse extragalactic emission. The maximum upper limit to the strength of the emission by the diffuse extragalactic component is the total of the hard component, approx. 7.4 +/- 1.0 keV/(sq cm s sr keV) in the 3/4 keV band. We have made the first direct measure of the fluctuations due to the diffuse extragalactic emission in the 3/4 keV band. Physical arguments suggest that small angular scale (approx. 10') fluctuations in the Local Hot Bubble or the Galactic halo will have very short dissipation times (about 10(exp 5) years). Therefore, the fluctuation spectrum of the soft X-ray background should measure the distribution of the diffuse extragalactic emission. Using mosaics of deep, overlapping PSPC pointings, we find an autocorrelation function value of approx. 0.0025 for 10' < theta < 20', and a value consistent with zero on larger scales. Measurement of the fluctuations with a delta I/I method produces consistent results.

Kuntz, K. D.↗

Application of Simulated Annealing and Related Algorithms to TWTA Design

Simulated Annealing (SA) is a stochastic optimization algorithm used to search for global minima in complex design surfaces where exhaustive searches are not computationally feasible. The algorithm is derived by simulating the annealing process, whereby a solid is heated to a liquid state and then cooled slowly to reach thermodynamic equilibrium at each temperature. The idea is that atoms in the solid continually bond and re-bond at various quantum energy levels, and with sufficient cooling time they will rearrange at the minimum energy state to form a perfect crystal. The distribution of energy levels is given by the Boltzmann distribution: as temperature drops, the probability of the presence of high-energy bonds decreases. In searching for an optimal design, local minima and discontinuities are often present in a design surface. SA presents a distinct advantage over other optimization algorithms in its ability to escape from these local minima. Just as high-energy atomic configurations are visited in the actual annealing process in order to eventually reach the minimum energy state, in SA highly non-optimal configurations are visited in order to find otherwise inaccessible global minima. The SA algorithm produces a Markov chain of points in the design space at each temperature, with a monotonically decreasing temperature. A random point is started upon, and the objective function is evaluated at that point. A stochastic perturbation is then made to the parameters of the point to arrive at a proposed new point in the design space, at which the objection function is evaluated as well. If the change in objective function values (Delta)E is negative, the proposed new point is accepted. If (Delta)E is positive, the proposed new point is accepted according to the Metropolis criterion: rho((Delta)f) = exp((-Delta)E/T), where T is the temperature for the current Markov chain. The process then repeats for the remainder of the Markov chain, after which the temperature is decremented and the process repeats. Eventually (and hopefully), a near-globally optimal solution is attained as T approaches zero. Several exciting variants of SA have recently emerged, including Discrete-State Simulated Annealing (DSSA) and Simulated Tempering (ST). The DSSA algorithm takes the thermodynamic analogy one step further by categorizing objective function evaluations into discrete states. In doing so, many of the case-specific problems associated with fine-tuning the SA algorithm can be avoided; for example, theoretical approximations for the initial and final temperature can be derived independently of the case. In this manner, DSSA provides a scheme that is more robust with respect to widely differing design surfaces. ST differs from SA in that the temperature T becomes an additional random variable in the optimization. The system is also kept in equilibrium as the temperature changes, as opposed to the system being driven out of equilibrium as temperature changes in SA. ST is designed to overcome obstacles in design surfaces where numerous local minima are separated by high barriers. These algorithms are incorporated into the optimal design of the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA). The area under scrutiny is the collector, in which it would be ideal to use negative potential to decelerate the spent electron beam to zero kinetic energy just as it reaches the collector surface. In reality this is not plausible due to a number of physical limitations, including repulsion and differing levels of kinetic energy among individual electrons. Instead, the collector is designed with multiple stages depressed below ground potential. The design of this multiple-stage collector is the optimization problem of interest. One remaining problem in SA and DSSA is the difficulty in determining when equilibrium has been reached so that the current Markov chain can be terminated. It has been suggested in recent literature that simulating the thermodynamic properties opecific heat, entropy, and internal energy from the Boltzmann distribution can provide good indicators of having reached equilibrium at a certain temperature. These properties are tested for their efficacy and implemented in SA and DSSA code with respect to TWTA collector optimization.

Radke, Eric M.↗