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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Cost Competitive Process of Battery Grade Oxides Preparation from Aged LIBs

The increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is driving development of advanced recycling and refining methods. In this project, new cathode active materials are prepared from recycled lithium battery materials and subsequently electrochemically evaluated in coin cells. In detail, scrap LIBs were mechanically processed into a metal rich black mass, then reductive acid leached into an aqueous metal solution, and finally high-purity metal hydroxide precursor materials were prepared by selective electrochemical flow precipitation. Closed-loop LIB recycling into active electrode materials will enable US manufacturers to break their reliance on foreign sources of critical materials. For example, electroextraction process used here has potential to significantly reduce chemical & water use as well as waste production as compared to traditional metallurgic techniques. To this end, electroextracted materials refined from used batteries were collected and processed to be tested as precursor cathode active material (pCAM). For this project, two samples of high purity recycled NMC hydroxide (~1 kg each) were received from N th Cycle’s Ohio demonstration facility. The NMC compositions of the two materials are similar, and the levels of impurities have been confirmed. Indeed, impurities like copper, boron and sodium are present in quantities that could negatively impact battery performance. However, some studies have demonstrated that the control of the quantity of elements like copper or boron may improve the electrochemistry properties of Lithium-NMC batteries. The principal objective is to determine the electrochemical performance of these 2 NMC hydroxide batches and clearly determine the effect of the impurities on the performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evapotranspiration Partitioning of Eucalyptus benthamii and Pinus taeda During Early Stand Development

Increasing demand for bioenergy from intensively managed woody crops raises concerns of increased evapotranspiration and potential decreases in water yield. Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) is currently the most cultivated species in the southeastern USA, the country’s wood basket. However, Eucalyptus species could achieve greater productivity but with unknown ramifications for water budgets. To address the knowledge gap, we determined annual water budgets of loblolly pine and Eucalyptus benthamii (eucalypt) from growing years 3 through 5 in a replicated (n = 3) two-factor design comparing species and groundwater depth. Paired plots were established across a depth-to-groundwater gradient from shallow (~ 2 m) to deep (~ 8 m). Hydrologic budgets were constructed by measuring precipitation, interception, soil evaporation, and transpiration. Eucalypt evapotranspiration and above-ground biomass production for growing years 3 through 5 were on average 25 and 14% greater than pine, respectively; however, evapotranspiration did not differ across groundwater depths. At the end of growing year 5, eucalypt had higher transpiration and evapotranspiration per unit area than pine. Soil evaporation was substantial in young plantations (nearly 500 mm) in growing year 3 but declined as the canopy closed. Partitioning of evapotranspiration components in developing bioenergy plantations was dynamic due to canopy development driven decreases in soil evaporation and increases in transpiration and interception; total evapotranspiration was less variable from year to year. Water use efficiency (WUE, kg biomass/m 3 H 2 O) per unit evapotranspiration was similar between species, but WUE per unit transpiration was higher in pine. As a result, considering total evapotranspiration in young plantations can affect WUE interpretations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coastal-Fog Microphysics Using In-Situ Observations and GOES-R Retrievals

Here, the objective of this work is to evaluate GOES-R based fog conditions occurred during the C-FOG (Toward Improving Coastal Fog Prediction) field campaign. C-FOG is designed to advance understanding of fog formation, development, and dissipation over coastal environments to improve its predictability. The project took place along coastlines and open water environments of Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, NS and the Island of Newfoundland, NL) during August-October of 2018 where environmental conditions play an important role for late season’s fog formation. During the C-FOG field campaign, instruments were located at the Ferryland Supersite, NL, with 2 main sites, and five satellite sites, as well as on the Research Vessel (R/V) Hugh R. Sharp. Key measurement instruments included a Gondola carrying a CDP (cloud droplet probe) and a BCP (backscatter cloud probe) was used for measuring droplet spectra from 1-75 µm on the R/V. A LPM (laser precipitation monitor) with 100 µm-1 cm size range and an OPC (optical particle counter) with 0.3-17 µm at 16 spectral channels provided information for fog and drizzle discrimination. Remote sensing platforms (e.g. profiling microwave radiometer, PMWR), Ceilometer, Lidar), meteorological towers, tethered balloons, and GOES-R products (e.g. fog coverage and droplet size and liquid water path) were used to evaluate fog over horizontal and vertical dimensions. Results suggest that effective radius, phase, liquid water path, and liquid water content values obtained from GOES-R and PMWR were comparable to ground based in-situ observations. It is concluded that integration of observations and nowcasting products may help improve short term local fog predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LAKE model input dataset for three Arctic lakes

This dataset contains meteorological data collected for three Arctic lakes and compiled to satisfy input requirements of the LAKE 2.0 model. The dataset was generated to act as a benchmarking dataset for future model-data inter-comparisons. The LAKE 2.0 model simulates temperatures within the water later and the sedimentary layer of a lake. The LAKE2.0. is an open-source code and available to download via this weblike http://tesla.parallel.ru/Viktor/LAKE/-/wikis/LAKE-model (last visit July 14, 2021). The meteorological data are required to simulate the surface energy balance at the surface of a lake. This dataset includes a compilation of the meteorological data pulled from multiple data streams, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate data, Circumarctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) data, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) data. The data were compiled for three Arctic lakes: FoxDen (66.55877, -164.45670), Atqasuk (70.452497, -156.951984), and Toolik (68.63150, -149.60740). Each meteorological data is in comma-delimited format (file extension ‘.dat’) and includes eight columns: Temperature [K], Pressure [Pa], longwave downward radiation [W/m2], shortwave downward radiation [W/m2], “U” wind speed [m/s], ”V” wind speed [m/s], humidity [kg/kg], precipitation [m/s]. In addition to the meteorological data file, we included setup and driver files. The Toolik lake is the deepest out of three lakes and has inflowing and outflowing groundwater data. InflowOutflowREADME.txt has more information about inflow and outflow flies. The other two lakes are much shallower and modeled as a closed system (i.e. no water inflow or outflow).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change—Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA’s Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983–2018) reduced SD from 61–96%, TN from 34–55%, TP from 9–48%, and BD from 53–99%, and raised DO from 4–10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century’s (2070–2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28–94% and BD from 69–93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microstructural Characterization of the Second High Fluence Baffle-Former Bolt Retrieved from a Westinghouse Two-loop Downflow Type PWR

As one of the pressurized water reactor (PWR) internal components, baffle-former bolts (BFBs) are subjected to significant mechanical stress and neutron irradiation from the reactor core during the plant operation. Over the long operation period, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of the bolts. In support of evaluating long-term operational performance of materials used in core internal components, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), through the Department of Energy (DOE), Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Materials Research Pathway (MRP) has harvested two high fluence BFBs from a commercial Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR. The two bolts of interest, i.e. bolts # 4412 and 4416, were withdrawn from service in 2011 as part of a preventative replacement plan. No identification of cracking or potential damage was found for these bolts during their removal in 2011. However, the bolts required a lower torque for removal from the baffle structure than the original torque specified during installation. Irradiation displacement damage levels in the bolts range from 15 to 41 displacements per atom. The goal of this project is to perform detailed microstructural and mechanical property characterization of BFBs following in-service exposures. The information from these bolts will be integral to the LWRS program initiatives in evaluating end of life microstructure and properties. Furthermore, valuable data will be obtained that can be incorporated into model predictions of long-term irradiation behavior and compared to results obtained in high flux experimental reactor conditions. In this report, we present our latest study in FY22 on microstructural characterizations of the second high fluence baffle-former bolt, i.e., bolt # 4412. Analytical electron microscopy and atom probe tomography characterization were performed. The radiation-induced defects in the material add to the large wealth of knowledge for neutron-induced defects in 304/316 grades of stainless steels, specifically for radiation-induced precipitation after high fluence commercial PWR irradiation. The main findings are summarized as follows: 1) The cavity size was considerably larger in the bolt thread section than in the bolt head, with the bolt thread section having a bimodal distribution of cavities greater than ~6 nm in diameter and less than ~3 nm in diameter. The bolt head only had the small-sized cavities. In addition, there was a denuded zone of large cavities near grain boundaries in the thread section of the bolt. 2) Radiation-induced precipitation in the BFB #4412 was highly complex, with the volume fraction, size, and number density of Ni/Si and Cu-rich precipitates depending strongly on the radiation temperature/dose. In many cases, co-precipitates of adjoined clusters were found with Ni/Si-rich precipitates sandwiched between Cu-rich clusters and Mo/Cr/P-rich clusters. 3) Solute segregation out of solution was highest for most solutes in the thread section of the bolt #4412 with the exception of Cu, which experienced more separation out of solution into Curich clusters in the bolt head section. This highlights the difference in the mechanisms for precipitation of Ni/Si clusters, which have the Ni 3 Si phase composition, and precipitation of Cu-rich clusters. 4) There appear to be multiple simultaneous influences that affect the microstructural variation along the length of the bolt that overcomes the ~2X difference in irradiation dose between the bolt head and the bolt thread. The irradiation temperature, thermal/fast neutron ratio variation, potential strain gradient, and exposure to PWR coolant water that each section of the bolt sees may have more influence on the microstructural evolution than the total irradiation dose. The bolt thread and shank, with higher temperature, higher relative fast neutron flux, higher strain, and exposure to coolant but lower dose, underwent more enhanced cavity formation, precipitation, and solute segregation than the bolt head section.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Boron and lithium aqueous thermochemistry to model crud deposition in pressurized water reactors

Here, a comprehensive database of boron and lithium aqueous thermochemistry has been developed for use at elevated temperatures. The Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) formalism provides a framework to describe thermodynamic properties over a broad range of temperatures and pressures. Accuracy at high temperatures is vital to modeling nickel oxide and ferrite fuel deposits that occur in pressurized water nuclear reactors (PWRs). CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) calculations are performed at PWR crud conditions to predict the stability regions of the solid lithium metaborate (LiBO 2 ) and lithium tetraborate (Li 2 B 4 O 7 ) precipitates. In addition, similar calculations are performed using sodium and potassium instead of lithium in order to assess the thermodynamics associated with preventing the formation of such precipitates. This database contributes to understanding of crud formation and composition and will aid in the prediction of phenomena such as Crud-Induced Power Shifts (CIPS).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of U.S. West Coast Mountain Snowpack to Local Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations: Insights from Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning

Sea surface temperature (SST) significantly modulates the precipitation and temperature over land, with important consequences on land surface processes such as snowpack. Compared to the impact of remote SST, the effect of nearshore/local SST is less well understood. In this study, the impact of local SST on the mountain snowpack of the U.S. West Coast is investigated using two 6-km regional climate simulations driven by the same lateral boundary conditions but with time-varying versus time-invariant and warmer local SSTs during 2003–15. Results show that local SST warming leads to warmer winter with more precipitation over the mountains. Meanwhile, the removal of SST temporal variability results in reduced temperature variability but increased precipitation variability. As a result, winter snow accumulation decreases by ~200 mm per season in the Cascade Mountains in the north but increases by ~100 mm per season in the Sierra Nevada in the south. Such a dipole response results from the competing effects of precipitation and temperature change at different elevations and are amplified by the enhanced atmospheric river moisture transport. To further delineate the relative contributions of different meteorological factors to the snowpack response, two neural network models were developed to predict the snow behaviors at seasonal and monthly scales. These models reveal the dominant influence of the total amount and the average temperature of precipitation on the snowpack response. Furthermore, these findings highlight the sensitivity of mountain snowpack to local SST in the western United States and underscore the importance of local SST and atmospheric rives to accurate snowpack estimations for water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Composited structure of non-precipitating shallow cumulus clouds

The normalized distributions of thermodynamic and dynamical variables both within and outside shallow clouds are investigated through a composite algorithm using large-eddy simulations of oceanic and continental cases. The normalized magnitude is maximum near the cloud centre and decreases outwards. While relative humidity (RH) and cloud liquid water ( q l ) decrease smoothly to match the environment, the vertical velocity, virtual potential temperature (θ v ), and potential temperature (θ) perturbations have more complicated behaviour towards the cloud boundary. Below the inversion layer, θ' v becomes negative before the vertical velocity has turned from an updraft to a subsiding shell outside the cloud, indicating the presence of a transition zone where the updraft is negatively buoyant. Due to the downdraft outside the cloud and enhanced horizontal turbulent mixing across the edge, the normalized turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and horizontal turbulent kinetic energy (HTKE) decrease more slowly from the cloud centre outwards than the thermodynamic variables. The distributions all present asymmetric structures in response to the vertical wind shear, with more negatively buoyant air, stronger downdrafts, and larger TKE on the downshear side. We discuss several implications of the distributions for theoretical models and parameterizations. Positive buoyancy near the cloud base is mostly due to the virtual effect of water vapour, emphasizing the role of moisture in triggering. The mean vertical velocity is found to be approximately half the maximum vertical velocity within each cloud, providing a constraint to achieve possible power-law distributions for some models. Finally, the normalized distributions for different variables are used to estimate the vertical heat and moisture fluxes within clouds. The results suggest that distributions near the cloud edge and variability of maximum perturbations need careful treatment. The fluxes are underestimated in the inversion layer because cloud-top downdrafts cannot be captured well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Carbonate Minerals on Shale-Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid Interactions in the Marcellus Shale

Natural gas extracted from tight shale formations, such as the Marcellus Shale, represents a significant and developing front in energy exploration. By fracturing these formations using pressurized fracturing fluid, previously unobtainable hydrocarbon reserves may be tapped. While pursuing this resource, hydraulic fracturing operations leave chemically complex fluids in the shale formation for at least two weeks. This provides a substantial opportunity for the hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) to react with the shale formation at reservoir temperature and pressure. In this study, we investigated the effects of the carbonates on shale-HFF reactions with a focus on the Marcellus Shale. We performed autoclave experiments at high temperature and pressure reservoir conditions using a carbonate-rich and a decarbonated or carbonate-free version of the same shale sample. We observed that carbonate minerals buffer the pH of the solution, which in turn prevents clay dissolution. Carbonate and bicarbonate ions also scavenge reactive oxidizing species (ROS), which prevents oxidation of shale organic matter and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Carbonate-free samples also show higher pyrite dissolution compared to the carbonate-rich sample due to chelation reactions. This study demonstrates how carbonate minerals (keeping all other variables constant) affect shale-HFF reactions that can potentially impact porosity, microfracture integrity, and the release of heavy metals and volatile organic contaminants in the produced water.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chemical-Free Lithium Separation from High-Salinity Brines Using Model-Informed and Machine Learning-Optimized Multi-Column Zwitterionic Chromatography

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technologies often struggle to produce high-purity lithium salts from high-salinity brines, as current approaches require chemical-based elution, regeneration, and precipitation steps, resulting in significant environmental footprints. A novel salt fractionation approach using carboxybetaine resin, known as zwitterionic chromatography (ZIC), has demonstrated that lithium ions can be separated from divalent cations under high-salinity conditions using only water as eluent, with no regeneration required. To enable continuous and scalable deployment of this approach, we developed a chemical-free Multi-column Zwitterionic Chromatography (MZC) process and its theoretical and process models. To predict and optimize this nontraditional separation system, we introduced a novel anti-Langmuir isotherm, and the isotherm parameters were estimated through a machine learning-driven optimization based on artificial neural network ensembles with numerical feasibility assessment. Using machine learning-driven optimization, the MZC process achieved 98.0% lithium recovery, 99.5 % Li/(Li + Mg + Ca) purity, a 31.3% productivity increase, and a 33% reduction in water use compared to batch operation. The proposed MZC process enables lithium separation at $0.6-1.2 kg-1 Li, with costs dominated by resin manufacturing, while offering lower separation costs and carbon footprint compared with conventional carbonation. Overall, these findings position the MZC process as an effective polishing step within scalable and sustainable lithium production pipelines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recovering Rare Earth Elements from Coal Mine Drainage Using Industrial Byproducts: Environmental and Economic Consequences

Coal mine drainage (CMD) impairs tens of thousands of kilometers of U.S. waterways each year, in part with the leaching of low concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs). REEs are essential for modern technologies, yet economically viable natural deposits are geospatially limited, thus engendering geopolitical concerns, and their mining is energy intense and environmentally destructive. This work summarizes laboratory-scale experimentalresults of a trap-extract-precipitate (TEP) process and uses the mass and energy balances to estimate the economic costs and environmental impacts of the TEP. The TEP process uses the alkalinity and filtering capacity of stabilized flue gas desulfurization (sFGD) material or water treatment plant (WTP) sludge to remediate CMD waters and extract REEs. Passive treatment systems that use WTP sludge are cheaper than those that use sFGD material ($\$$89,300/year or $\$$86/gT-REE vs. $\$$89,800/year or $\$$278/gT-REE) and have improved environmental performance across all indicators from two different impact assessment methods. These differences are largely attributable to the larger neutralizing capacity of WTP sludge in the treatment application.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Charged Solute-Solvent Interaction on Reservoir Temperature during Subsurface CO2 Injection

A short-term side-effect of CO2 injection is a developing low-pH front that forms ahead of the bulk water injectant, due to differences in solute diffusivity. Observations of downhole well temperature show a reduction in aqueous-phase temperature with the arrival of a low-pH front, followed by a gradual rise in temperature upon the arrival of a high concentration of bicarbonate ion. In this work, we model aqueous-phase transient heat advection and diffusion, with the volumetric energy generation rate computed from solute-solvent interaction using the Helgeson–Kirkham–Flowers (HKF) model, which is based on the Born Solvation model, for computing specific molar heat capacity and the enthalpy of charged electrolytes. A computed injectant water temperature profile is shown to agree with the actual bottom hole sampled temperature acquired from sensors. The modeling of aqueous-phase temperature during subsurface injection simulation is important for the accurate modeling of mineral dissolution and precipitation because forward dissolution rates are governed by a temperature-dependent Arrhenius model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the causes of satellite–model discrepancies in aerosol–cloud interactions using near-LES simulations of marine boundary layer clouds

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain the largest source of uncertainty in model estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing, primarily because of deficiencies in representing aerosol–cloud microphysical processes that lead to inconsistent cloud liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosol perturbations between observations and models. To investigate this discrepancy, we conducted a series of large-eddy-scale simulations driven by realistic meteorology over the eastern North Atlantic, and evaluated LWP susceptibility, precipitation processes, and boundary layer thermodynamics using satellite and ground-based observations. Simulated LWP responses show a strong dependence on cloud state. Non-precipitating thin clouds exhibit a modest LWP decrease with increasing cloud droplet number concentration (N d ), consistent in sign but weaker in magnitude than satellite estimates, reflecting enhanced turbulent mixing and evaporation. The largest model-observation discrepancy occurs in non-precipitating thick clouds, where simulated LWP susceptibilities are strongly positive (+0.32) while observations indicate large negative values (−0.69). This discrepancy stems from excessive precipitation driven by underestimated entrainment, overly active accretion, and overly broad drop-size distributions in polluted conditions. While our high-resolution setup mitigates the excessive drizzling common in coarser models and captures key regime transitions, these biases persist – highlighting that improved parameterizations of cloud-top processes, precipitation, and aerosol effects are needed beyond simply increasing model resolution. Additionally, misrepresented moisture inversions in reanalysis introduce a moist bias in cloud-top relative humidity, further amplifying positive LWP susceptibility. Our results also suggest that large negative N d –LWP relationships in observations may reflect internal cloud processes rather than true ACI effects.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamically Downscaled (WRF) 1km, Hourly Meteorological Conditions 1987-2020. East/Taylor Watersheds

This dataset contains meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.8.1. This dataset has been created to 1) investigate hydrometeorological processes impacting the East River and water-delivery to the Critical Zone, and 2) provide meteorological forcing data for distributed Earth-science modeling applications in the East River watershed. Variables have a 1 kilometer spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution and encompass a rectangular region encompassing the East and Taylor River watersheds, Colorado, near the town of Crested Butte. WRF was forced using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) lateral boundary conditions. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 -- September 30; i.e. water year 2017 starts October 1, 2016 and ends September 30, 2017). Each zip folder contains 12 netcdf (.nc) files containing one month of hourly data each and are approximately 250mb. Model timestamps are in UTC time.The files contain the following data variables:EAST_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionTAYLOR_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionGLW downwelling longwave radiation (w/m2)HR_PRCP: Hourly Precipitation Rate (mm/hr). Includes all hydrometeors (solid+liquid). HFX NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled sensible heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere]LH NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled latent heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere; can be converted to ET]PSFC Surface Barometric Pressure (hPa)Q2 Two-meter specific humidity (kg/kg)SWDOWN Downwelling shortwave solar radiation (w/m2)SWNORM Terrain-normal downwelling shortwave radiation (w/m2)T2 Two-meter air temperature (deg K)U10 10-m U-component of wind velocity (m/s)V10 10m V-component of wind velocity (m/s)XLAT Latitude of grid-center point XLONG Longitude of grid-center point XTIME Model timestamp, **in UTC**

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Examination of Global Midlatitude Atmospheric River Lifecycles Using an Object-Oriented Methodology

Tracking atmospheric rivers (ARs) across their lifecycles is a field of recent interest with a multitude of emerging methodologies. The CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is adapted for the tracking of global midlatitude AR lifecycles and associated precipitation by implementing a seeded region growing segmentation algorithm, creating the AR-CONNECT algorithm. To facilitate the permissiveness of the methodology, AR-CONNECT is without hard-coded geometric criteria yet is still shown to extract synoptic-scale elongated objects >99.99% of the time. One of the consequences of the methodology is the ability to occasionally track atmospheric water vapor anomalies before evolving into AR geometries, effectively tracking AR genesis further back than other studies. With the aid of subdaily satellite-derived rain data, we investigate the climatology, trends, and patterns of AR lifecycles from 1983–2016 and compare with other AR tracking studies. We find that AR frequency, genesis, and terminus locations are in generally good agreement with other AR tracking methodologies, though with key differences, and that AR frequencies in each hemisphere are determined by the number of AR hotspots. Furthermore, we uncover evidence that certain AR characteristics, such as frequency, areal extent, and duration, show evidence of increasing trends. Midlatitude precipitation uncovered by AR-CONNECT shows contributions up to 50% over land and 65% over the ocean. Trend analysis of AR precipitation shows an increase in precipitation associated with ARs propagated by the Southern Jet Stream and ARs that traverse over the Sahara Desert, among others, but is determined not to be a driver of changes in global precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗