Results for “Population estimates” — Page 49

DOE OSTI2022

Disc dichotomy signature in the vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] and the delayed gas infall scenario

Context. Analysis of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment project (APOGEE) data suggests the existence of a clear distinction between two sequences of disc stars in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] abundance ratio space, known as the high- and low-α sequence, respectively. This dichotomy also emerges from an analysis of the vertical distribution of the [α/Fe] abundance ratio. Aims. We aim to test whether the revised two-infall chemical evolution models designed to reproduce the low- and high-α sequences in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] ratios in the solar neighbourhood are also capable of predicting the disc bimodality observed in the vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] in APOGEE DR16 data. Methods. Along with the chemical composition of the simple stellar populations born at different Galactic times predicted by our reference chemical evolution models in the solar vicinity, we provide their maximum vertical height above the Galactic plane |zmax| computed assuming the relation between the vertical action and stellar age in APOGEE thin-disc stars. Result. The vertical distribution of the [Mg/Fe] abundance ratio predicted by the reference chemical evolution models is in agreement with that observed when combining the APOGEE DR16 data (chemical abundances) with the astroNN catalogue (stellar ages, orbital parameters) for stars younger than 8 Gyr (only low-α sequence stars). Including the high-α disc component, the dichotomy in the vertical [Mg/Fe] abundance distribution is reproduced considering the observational cut in the Galactic height of |z|< 2 kpc. However, our model predicts an overly flat (almost constant) growth of the maximum vertical height |zmax| quantity as a function of [Mg/Fe] for high-α objects in contrast with the median values from APOGEE data. Possible explanations for such a tension are that: (i) the APOGEE sample with |z|< 2 kpc is more likely than ours to be contaminated by halo stars, causing the median values to be kinematically hotter, and (ii) external perturbations – such as minor mergers – that the Milky Way experienced in the past could have heated up the disc, and the heating of the orbits cannot be modeled by only scattering processes. Assuming a disc dissection based on chemistry for APOGEE-DR16 stars (|z|< 2 kpc), the observed |zmax| distributions for high-α and low-α sequences are in good agreement with our model predictions if we consider the errors in the vertical action estimates in the calculation. Moreover, a better agreement between predicted and observed stellar distributions at different Galactic vertical heights is achieved if asteroseismic ages are included as a constraint in the best-fit model calculations. Conclusions. The signature of a delayed gas infall episode, which gives rise to a hiatus in the star formation history of the Galaxy, are imprinted both in the [Mg/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relation and in vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] abundances in the solar vicinity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Genomic Signatures of a Major Adaptive Event in the Pathogenic Fungus Melampsora larici-populina

The recent availability of genome-wide sequencing techniques has allowed systematic screening for molecular signatures of adaptation, including in nonmodel organisms. Host–pathogen interactions constitute good models due to the strong selective pressures that they entail. We focused on an adaptive event which affected the poplar rust fungus Melampsora larici-populina when it overcame a resistance gene borne by its host, cultivated poplar. Based on 76 virulent and avirulent isolates framing narrowly the estimated date of the adaptive event, we examined the molecular signatures of selection. Using an array of genome scan methods based on different features of nucleotide diversity, we detected a single locus exhibiting a consistent pattern suggestive of a selective sweep in virulent individuals (excess of differentiation between virulent and avirulent samples, linkage disequilibrium, genotype–phenotype statistical association, and long-range haplotypes). Our study pinpoints a single gene and further a single amino acid replacement which may have allowed the adaptive event. Although our samples are nearly contemporary to the selective sweep, it does not seem to have affected genome diversity further than the immediate vicinity of the causal locus, which can be explained by a soft selective sweep (where selection acts on standing variation) and by the impact of recombination in mitigating the impact of selection. Therefore, it seems that properties of the life cycle of M. larici-populina, which entails both high genetic diversity and outbreeding, has facilitated its adaptation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind: Project Synthesis

The population of North Atlantic right whales is critically endangered and their habitat overlaps with offshore windfarm leases. It is therefore imperative that effective mitigation strategies be used to avoid impacts on right whales during the construction of offshore windfarms. The Department of Energy issued FOA Number DE-FOA-0001924 to encourage the development of technology that could monitor large exclusion zones for right whales in order to mitigate potential impact of construction noise on right whales. This report summarizes the past two years of the development and evaluation of the Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind (CABOW) project which aimed to develop technology to monitor large exclusion zones for North Atlantic right whales. Over the course of the project SMRU Consulting have implemented a rigorous design process including comparison of different approaches (e.g., single sensor vs multiple sensors), as well as consideration of placement and timing of acoustic monitoring. We have evaluated critical components of the CABOW system including, reliability, detection range, and bearing accuracy in areas adjacent to offshore windfarm leases in Maryland by conducting 3,536 playbacks of simulated right whale upcalls. The maximum call detection range was 7.5 km when noise was 99 dB re 1µPa rms (50-225 Hz), but this reduced to < 1 km when ambient noise levels were high. Our detection probability in the field was measured as a function of range as well as the source-to-noise level ratio allowing us to build a model to predict the probability of detection under various scenarios (sample size: 3,536 calls x 5 buoys = 17,680). The median bearing error was -0.25° but this is likely an underestimate of error due to experimental design. Using the published recall and precision of the two detectors we implemented in the CABOW system, we estimate that at a recall of 80%, our precision was > 80%, within the range of what we were aiming for in this project. To estimate our exclusion zone false negative and false positive rates, we built a simulation model using the empirical data from our field trial. We modelled three to nine CABOW units placed on the 10 km exclusion zone and estimated our false negative rate to be 1% or less (which was our project goal) and our false positive rate to be between seven and nine percent, slightly above our goal of 5%. However, we also modelled an equivalent PAM system that does not have bearing capabilities and found the false positive rates for that system to be six to eight times higher than the CABOW rate. This higher false positive rate of PAM systems with low spatial information could have significant cost repercussions for offshore wind developers by adding work shutdowns or delays without providing additional protection for right whales. The model we built allows us to explore the placement of PAM systems under various scenarios and will thus help facilitate planning of PAM mitigation systems to meet NOAA Incidental Harassment Authorizations for specific windfarms. We achieved an average system uptime of 98.3%, just below our goal of 99%. The issues that caused these short losses of data have been identified and fixed. Right whale detections and audio clips were typically transferred via radio from the buoys to the base station in two to four seconds. We therefore believe we have developed a highly robust real-time PAM system. Based on the above, we feel we have achieved the stated funding goal of developing a cost-effective and robust real-time PAM system that enables the monitoring of large exclusion zones for right whales during the constructions of offshore windfarms. This should lead to decreased costs and risks for the offshore wind sector while providing robust mitigation for right whales. It is important to state that PAM mitigation will need to be implemented with other mitigation strategies (e.g., visual observers) to provide a complete mitigation strategy to ensure that any effects on right whales from offshore windfarm construction is minimized.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Martian Crater Chronology: Implications for Jezero Crater

Crater chronologies are a fundamental tool to assess the relative and absolute ages of planetary surfaces when direct radiometric dating is not available. Martian crater chronologies are derived from lunar crater spatial densities on terrains with known radiometric ages, and thus they critically depend on the Moon-to-Mars extrapolation. This extrapolation requires knowledge of the time evolution of the impact flux, including contributions from various impactor populations, factors that are not trivially connected to the dynamical evolution of the early Solar System. In this paper, we will present a new Martian crater chronology based on current dynamical models, and consider the main sources of uncertainties (e.g., impactor size–frequency distribution; dynamical models with late and early instabilities, etc.). The resulting “envelope” of Martian crater chronologies significantly differs from previous chronologies. The new Martian crater chronology is discussed using two interesting applications: Jezero crater’s dark terrain (relevant to the NASA Mars 2020 mission) and the southern heavily cratered highlands. Our results indicate that Jezero’s dark terrain may have formed ∼3.1 Ga, i.e., up to 0.5 Gyr older than previously thought. In addition, available crater chronologies (including our own) overestimate the number of craters larger than 150 km on the southern highlands, suggesting either that large craters have been efficiently erased over Martian history or that dynamical models need further refinement. Further, our chronology constrains the age of Isidis basin to be 4.05–4.2 Ga and that of the Borealis basin to be 4.35–4.40 Ga; these are predictions that can be tested with future sample and return missions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Raccoon densities across four land cover types in the southeastern United States

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are the primary reservoir for rabies virus in eastern North America. Management of rabies in raccoons is achieved primarily with the use of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) and effective ORV bait densities are determined in part by the densities of raccoons. Decisions regarding ORV bait densities, however, are limited by an incomplete understanding of raccoon densities across the spectrum of landscapes they occupy. We carried out a mark-recapture study of raccoons on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA, from 2017–2019, to develop sex- and landscape-specific raccoon density estimates across 4 rural land cover types in the southeastern United States: bottomland hardwood, riparian forest, isolated wetland, and upland pine (Pinus spp.). We captured 404 unique raccoons 773 times over the 3-year trapping period. Estimated densities were 5.44 ± 0.37 (SE) animals/km 2 in bottomland hardwood forest, 2.62 ± 0.32 animals/km 2 in riparian forest, 2.19 ± 0.29 animals/km 2 in isolated wetlands, and 2.14 ± 0.23 animals/km 2 in upland pine. Densities were significantly higher in bottomland hardwood than all other land cover types, whereas densities among the remaining cover types were similar. These patterns are likely the result of landscape fragmentation and configuration, with riparian forests typically embedded in a matrix of less suitable cover types, leading to low densities despite presumably high resource availability. There were higher densities of males than females in every cover type except upland pine, where the sex ratio was balanced. Densities on our site were low compared to other rural areas, which likely results from the lack of human influence in terms of agriculture or development. The financial cost of baiting for ORV distribution may be reduced by considering the comparatively low densities of raccoons in these rural landscapes in the southeastern United States.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Controls of Mineralogy and Pore Structure on the Density of Methane Adsorption Phase in Shales under Supercritical Conditions

With gradually increasing enhancing population and industrialization, exploitation of shale gas is enhancing in the world to satisfy the growing demand for energy worldwide. To exploit shale gas efficiently, accurate assessment of shale gas in place (GIP) is necessary for determining production strategies. Unlike free and dissolved gas, adsorbed gas contributes to the shale GIP up to 85% due to the well-developed surface area and micropores. Measured excess adsorption of methane (up to over 95% of subsurface shale gas) is often corrected to absolute adsorption to obtain the actual amount of adsorption under supercritical (or geological) conditions. During the correction, adsorption phase density (APD) is critical. However, the APD of subsurface shale gas and the effects of shale properties (e.g., mineralogy and pore structure) on APD remain poorly understood. A series of high-pressure methane adsorption isotherms (HPMAI) on Caney Shales were collected and analyzed in conjunction with other United States and Chinese shales from the literature at 35–125 °C and up to 15 MPa. Here, a three-layer Ono–Kondo (OK3) model is utilized to derive the temperature- and pressure-dependent APD coupling low-pressure nitrogen adsorption isotherms (LPNAI) and HPMAI. X-ray diffraction and organic geochemistry are combined to reveal the mineralogy. Brunauer–Emmett–Teller, Barrett–Joyner–Halenda, and Horvath–Kawazoe analyses via LPNAI are used to investigate the pore structures. Results show that APD increases with organic matter (OM) proxied by total organic carbon and decreases with clay minerals and the sum of quartz and feldspar. OM dramatically contributes to the APD as multiple-layer adsorption exists, and the APD for OM could be 1.4–8.5 times that for clay minerals. Other inorganic minerals contribute less to APD. The properties and constitution of the surface area instead of the volume fraction contribute to the APD in shales. APD does not show an obvious correlation with micropore volume, likely related to the ratio of micropore volume to the total pore volume. Here, we provide a significant and comprehensive study of petrological factors that impact the APD of subsurface shale gas, which will improve the estimation of supercritical adsorption and shale GIP under reservoir conditions. Also, the findings in this work can provide applications for subsurface carbon dioxide adsorption and storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-redshift quasars along the main sequence

The 4D Eigenvector 1 empirical formalism (4DE1) and its main sequence (MS) for quasars has emerged as a powerful tool for organising the diversity among quasar populations, as several key observational measures and physical parameters are systematically changing along it. Trends revealed by 4DE1 are very well established to explain all the diverse characteristics seen in low-redshift quasar samples. Nevertheless, the situation is far less clear when dealing with high-luminosity and high-redshift sources. Here, we aim to evaluate the behaviour of our sample of 22 quasars at high redshift (2.2 ≤ z ≤ 3.7) and high luminosity (47.39 ≤ L bol ≤ 48.36) in the context of the 4DE1. Our approach involves studying quasar physics through a spectroscopic exploration of UV and optical emission line diagnostics. We used new observations from the ISAAC instrument at ESO-VLT and primarily from the SDSS to cover the optical and the UV rest-frames, respectively. The emission lines were characterised both via a quantitative parametrisation of the line profiles and a decomposition of the emission line profiles using multicomponent fitting routines. We provide spectrophotometric properties and line profile measurements for Hβ+[O III]λλ4959,5007, as well as Si IVλ1397+O IV]λ1402, C IVλ1549+He IIλ1640, and the 1900 Å blend (including Al IIIλ1860, Si III]λ1892, and C III]λ1909). For six out of the 22 objects, a significantly blueshifted component on the Hβ profile is present. In 14 out of 22 cases, an Hβ outflowing component associated with [O III] is detected. The majority of [O III]λλ4959,5007 emission line profiles show blueshifted velocities higher than 250 km s -1 . We find extremely broad [O III]λλ4959,5007 emission that is comparable to the width of Hβ broad profile in some highly accreting quasars. The [O III]λλ4959,5007 and C IVλ1549 blueshifts show very high amplitudes and a high degree of correlation. The line widths and shifts are correlated for both [O III]λλ4959,5007 and C IVλ1549, suggesting that emission from outflowing gas is providing a substantial broadening effect to both lines. Otherwise, the links between C IVλ1549 centroid velocity at half intensity (c(1/2)), Eddington ratio (L/L Edd ), and bolometric luminosity are found to be in agreement with previous studies of high-luminosity quasars. Our analysis suggests that the behaviour of quasars of very high luminosity all along the main sequence is strongly affected by powerful outflows involving a broad range of spatial scales. The main sequence correlations remain valid at high redshift and high luminosity even if a systematic increase in line width is observed. Scaling laws based on UV Al IIIλ1860 and Hβ emission lines are equally reliable estimators of M BH .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for a Nuclear Power Plant Colocated with Industrial Facilities: Colocation Studies for a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for an NPP Colocated with a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

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