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DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗

DOE OSTI2024

The New Face of Standard 100

In January 2024, ASHRAE published a significant overhaul to ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 100-2018, Energy Efficiency in Existing Buildings. You may almost not recognize it. Standard 100-2024, Energy and Emissions Building Performance Standard for Existing Buildings, now addresses both energy and emissions performance as a model building performance standard (BPS). ASHRAE Standing Standard Project Committee (SSPC) 100, with direction from ASHRAE and its Task Force for Building Decarbonization (TFBD) has been working to update the standard to make it a model for building performance standard adoption across the U.S. and internationally. Here, the new edition of Standard 100 addresses key issues of climate change surrounding building performance, including new metrics for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets, continuing to support the imperative of improving our existing building stock and meeting global climate change commitments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation of Model-Scale Turbine Performance and Control Strategies for the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Wind Turbine

To enable the fast growth of the floating offshore wind industry, simulation models must be validated with experimental data. Floating wind model-scale experiments in wind–wave facilities have been performed over the last two decades with varying levels of fidelity and limitations. However, the turbine controls in these experiments have considered only limited control strategies and implementations. To allow for control co-design, this research focuses on implementing and experimentally validating more advanced turbine control actions and strategies in a wind–wave basin for a 1:70-scale model of the International Energy Agency’s wind 15 MW reference wind turbine. The control strategies analyzed include torque control, collective pitch control, and transition region control (setpoint smoothing). Our experimental and numerical results include the effects of varying rotor speeds, blade pitches, and wind environments on the turbine thrust and torque. Numerical models from three different software tools are presented and compared to the experimental results. Their ability to effectively represent the aero-dynamic response of the wind turbine to the control actions is successfully validated. Finally, turbine controller tuning parameters based on the derivatives of thrust and torque are derived to allow for improved offshore wind turbine dynamics and to validate the ability of modeling tools to model the dynamics of floating offshore wind turbines with control co-design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A hybrid meshfree discretization to improve the numerical performance of peridynamic models

Efficient and accurate calculation of spatial integrals is of major interest in the numerical implementation of peridynamics (PD). The standard way to perform this calculation is a particle-based approach that discretizes the strong form of the PD governing equation. This approach has rapidly been adopted by the PD community since it offers some advantages. Additionally, it is computationally cheaper than other available schemes, can conveniently handle material separation, and effectively deals with nonlinear PD models. Nevertheless, PD models are still computationally very expensive compared with those based on the classical continuum mechanics theory, particularly for large-scale problems in three dimensions. This results from the nonlocal nature of the PD theory which leads to interactions of each node of a discretized body with multiple surrounding nodes. Here, we propose a new approach to significantly boost the numerical efficiency of PD models. We propose a discretization scheme that employs a simple collocation procedure and is truly meshfree; i.e., it does not depend on any background integration cells. In contrast to the standard scheme, the proposed scheme requires a much smaller set of neighboring nodes (keeping the same physical length scale) to achieve a specific accuracy and is thus computationally more efficient. Our new scheme is applicable to the case of linear PD models and within neighborhoods where the solution can be approximated by smooth basis functions. Therefore, to fully exploit the advantages of both the standard and the proposed schemes, a hybrid discretization is presented that combines both approaches within an adaptive framework. The high performance of the developed framework is illustrated by several numerical examples, including brittle fracture and corrosion problems in two and three dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Porting ATLAS Fast Calorimeter Simulation to GPUs with Performance Portable Programming Models

FastCaloSim is a parameterized simulation of the particle energy response and of the energy distribution in the ATLAS calorimeter. It is a relatively small and self-contained package with massive inherent parallelism and captures the essence of GPU offloading via important operations like data transfer, memory initialization, floating point operations, and reduction. It was identified by the High Energy Physics Center for Computational Excellence project as a good testbed for evaluating the performance and ease of portability of programming models. In this paper, we will discuss the results of our evaluation of the porting process to Kokkos, SYCL, Alpaka, OpenMP and std::par (nvc++), and compare performance on NVIDIA, AMD and Intel GPUs, as well as multicore CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

MEPHESTO: Modeling Energy-Performance in Heterogeneous SoCs and Their Trade-Offs

Integrated shared memory heterogeneous architectures are pervasive because they satisfy the diverse needs of mobile, autonomous, and edge computing platforms. Although specialized processing units (PUs) that share a unified system memory improve performance and energy efficiency by reducing data movement, they also increase contention for this memory since the PUs interact with each other. Prior work has investigated performance degradation due to memory contention, but few have studied the relationship of power and energy to memory contention. Moreover, a comprehensive solution that models memory contention for kernel placement on contemporary heterogeneous systems on chip (SoCs) in response to energy and performance has been largely unaddressed.This paper presents MEPHESTO, a novel and holistic approach for managing this balance. The authors characterize applications and PUs in terms of two memory contention factors - time factors and power factors - to achieve the desired trade-off between energy and performance for collocated kernel execution on heterogeneous systems. The authors believe that this investigation is the first to combine all of these factors and present a simple knob-based approach that expresses the target trade-off. The approach is evaluated on a diverse integrated shared memory heterogeneous system with a CPU, GPU, and programmable vision accelerator. By using an empirical model for memory contention that provides up to 92% accuracy, the kernel collocation approach can provide a near-optimal ordering and placement based on the user-defined, energy-performance trade-off parameter. Moreover, the dynamic programming-based heuristics provide up to 30% better energy or 20% performance benefits when compared with the greedy approaches commonly employed by previous studies.

Alaul haque monil, Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance characterization and modeling of an oscillating surge wave energy converter

Abstract Testing wave energy converters in the ocean could be expensive and complex, which necessitates the use of numerical modeling. However, accurately modeling the response of wave energy converters with high-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive in the design stage where different configurations must be considered. Reduced-order models based on simplified equations of motion can be very useful in the design, optimization, or control of wave energy converters. Given the complex dynamics of wave energy converters, accurate representation, and evaluation of relative contributions by different forces are required. This effort is concerned with a performance characterization of the hydrodynamic response of an oscillating surge wave energy converter that is based on a reduced-order model. A state-space model is used to represent the radiation damping term. Morison’s representation of unsteady forces is used to account for the nonlinear damping. Wave tank tests are performed to validate simulations. A free response simulation is used to determine the coefficients of the state-space model. Torque-forced simulations are used to identify the coefficients of the nonlinear damping term for different amplitudes and wave frequencies. The impact of varying these coefficients on the response is investigated. An assessment of the capability of the model in predicting the hydrodynamic response under irregular forcing is performed. The results show that the maximum error is 3% when compared with high-fidelity simulations. It is determined that the nonlinear damping is proportional to the torque amplitude and its effects are more pronounced as the amplitude of the flap oscillations increases.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Motorette Thermal Performance Testing and Modeling for an Electric Motor with Additively Manufactured Hollow Conductors with Integrated Heat Pipes

This paper discusses the design, build and test of a motorette to characterize the thermal performance of an additively manufactured coil integrated with heat pipes. The motorette is powered using a variable frequency AC power supply and cooled through two independent cooling systems. The first cooling system cools the stator core using forced convection of air flowing over a finned heat sink mounted on the stator outer diameter. The second cooling system cools the heat pipes using forced convection of 50-50 water ethylene glycol (WEG) mixture flowing through condenser chambers. A 3D thermal FEA model of the setup is built and heat transfer coefficients (HTC) of convective boundaries are computed using coolant flow rates from test data and empirical equations. Temperature at locations on the coil and heat sink are recorded and compared to thermal model predicted values. A maximum temperature error of 22.7% occurs at 180ARMS and 800 Hz operating point for the AM dual coil. The thermal model provides higher temperatures compared to test results and hence it is on the conservative side but in general, there is good correlation between test and model results. Lastly, opportunities for improvement to both test data measurement and 3D thermal FEA modeling are discussed.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spectral Rear Irradiance Testing and Modeling for Degradation and Performance of Solar Fields

This work investigates how the spectrum of irradiance incident on the rear of solar modules impacts the degradation and performance of backsheets. We model the spectral irradiance incident on the rear of modules through raytrace simulations and validate with measured field data collected from a 75kW single axis-tracked bifacial test site. A generic equation to estimate relative degradation is proposed, and we show that current acceleration factors for UV damage in chambers can be sub-estimate up to 4.5% absolute from the usually assumed 10% dosage on the rear surfaces.

bifacial performance↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Indicators of the Performance of Large Language Models

In several mission contexts, it is desirable to estimate the performance of large language models (LLMs) on tasks that we cannot run directly. In light of published “scaling laws” our hypothesis is that some tasks should be consistently more challenging than others based on characteristics of the task. The goal of this project was to begin quantifying how much information about LLM performance can be gained from the features of a model and a task. Two of our statistical models struggled to converge. Pass/fail test results may provide limited information for inference beyond model quality and task difficulty, but we see no evidence at this time for significant feature interaction effect sizes, arguing for simple models. Future work extending the models to capitalize on perplexity of ground truth answers is suggested. This project also introduces “Depth of Knowledge Variant Testing” as a strategy for more finely assessing language models on open domain question and answer tasks. We developed sets of questions that ask a language model to produce similar information while demonstrating increasing depth of knowledge, and also relabeled existing Q&A test questions with their depth of knowledge. Our results suggest further consideration of Bloom’s taxonomy and further refinement of prompts to properly elicit information at varying depths. In the course of this work, we set up a basic infrastructure for standardizing tasks and testing many language models on these tasks. In addition to testing the predictive quality of model features and performance across test suites, with this project we have introduced two new task features to contextualize each test question: the Dewey Classification main category of information covered, and the Bloom’s taxonomy level that corresponds to the depth of knowledge probed by the question. Splits across these and other features produced over five hundred task subtypes with distinct feature vectors, which we tested on half a dozen models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of idealized large-eddy simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model using turbulence measurements from a 250 m meteorological mast

Abstract. We investigate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to perform large-eddy simulation of canonical flows. This is achieved through comparison of the simulation outputs with measurements from sonic anemometers on a 250 m meteorological mast located at Østerild, in northern Denmark. Østerild is on a flat and rough area, and for the predominant wind directions, the atmospheric flow can be considered to be close to homogeneous. The idealized simulated flows aim at representing atmospheric boundary layer turbulence under unstable, neutral, and stable stability conditions at the surface, which are statistically significant conditions observed at Østerild. We found that the resolved fields from the simulations appear to have the characteristics of the three stability regimes. Vertical profiles of observed mean wind speeds and direction are well reproduced by the simulations, with the largest differences under near-neutral conditions, where the effect of the subgrid-scale model is evident on the vertical wind shear close to the surface. Vertical profiles of observed eddy fluxes are also well reproduced by the simulations, with the largest differences for the three velocity component variances under stable stability conditions, although nearly always within the observed variability. With regards to turbulent kinetic energy, we find good agreement between observations and simulations at all vertical levels. Simulated and observed velocity spectra match very well and show very similar behavior with height and with atmospheric stability within the low-frequency interval; at the effective resolution, the simulated spectra show the typical drop-off of finite differences. Our findings demonstrate that these idealized simulations reproduce the characteristics of atmospheric stability regimes often observed at a high turbulent and flat site within a direction sector, where the air flows over nearly homogeneous land.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Laboratory-Informed Modeling of Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Units

This measure scenario replaces gas and electric resistance RTUs in the U.S. commercial building stock with standard efficiency commercial off the shelf heat pump rooftop units. This study uses performance data informed by NREL laboratory testing of a standard efficiency 7.5-ton heat pump RTU. This is the key distinction between this measure scenario and a similar ComStock measure scenario - Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Units - that uses published manufacturer data tables to inform performance. These two scenarios are compared in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for enhanced power system model validation

A system for enhanced power system model validation is provided. The system includes a computing device including at least one processor in communication with at least one memory device. The at least one processor is programmed to store a plurality of models for a plurality of devices and a plurality of input files associated with the plurality of models, receive, from a user, a selection of model of the plurality of models to simulate, retrieve one or more input files of the plurality of input files, perform a model validity check on the selected model, if the selected model passed the model validity check, perform a model calibration on the selected model, and if the selected model passed the model calibration, perform a post evaluation on the selected model.

Wang, Honggang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Framework for Groundwater Monitoring Using DWT with LSTM and Transformers

Environmental monitoring is critical for safeguarding public health and ecological well-being. Traditional data structuring and workflow monitoring methods consume significant time and effort, hindering timely insights and effective decision-making. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting an AI framework that automates data cleaning, structuring, and modeling processes, specifically targeting applications in groundwater monitoring. By leveraging automation for data processing and model training, our framework establishes a novel and efficient paradigm for environmental monitoring, with its potential application to the vast network of over a hundred Department of Energy Environmental Management (DoE-EM) cleanup sites across the country. It analyzes data streams from a network of groundwater Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors deployed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for prediction modeling. This allows human experts to focus on analysis and decision-making, ultimately leading to better environmental outcomes.The framework employs multivariate time-series forecasting methods to study and model the behavior of varying chemical analytes. The continuous learning process is enabled by utilizing deep learning techniques. It allows the framework to become more nuanced in its analysis over time, adapting to the specific characteristics of the environmental site and the evolving nature of contaminant behavior. Deep learning models known for sequence modeling, LSTM, and Transformers are employed for time series forecasting. Data processing and structuring are essential components significantly impacting the final model's performance. This hypothesis was proven by presenting a comparative analysis of model performance with processed and unprocessed data. The feature engineering approach utilized was the Discrete Wavelet Transform, which works well with time series data.

Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wind farm blockage effects: comparison of different engineering models

The work presents four engineering methods to estimate the induction zone in front of a wind turbine and account for the wind farm blockage effect. The methods comprise the vortex cylinder model, vortex dipole model, self-similar model, and wake projection model. The majority of the models presented account for yaw misalignments and ground effect. Actuator disk simulations are used to verify the individual models. The performance of each model is evaluated both in terms of precision and computational time. The induction models are coupled to wake models within the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State framework to provide the full velocity field within a wind farm. Sample wind farm computations are presented, and the impact of including induction effects into wind farm performance predictions is reported. The different codes are publicly available online.

17 WIND ENERGY↗