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DOE OSTI2015

Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

Problem: The overall goal of this proposal is to detect observed seasonal-mean precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. Detection, e.g. the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is unusual, first requires some means of estimating the range of internal variability absent any external drivers. Ideally, the internal variability would be derived from the observations themselves, however generally the observed variability is a confluence of both internal variability and variability in response to external drivers. Further, numerical climate models—the standard tool for detection studies—have their own estimates of intrinsic variability, which may differ substantially from that found in the observed system as well as other model systems. These problems are further compounded for weather and climate extremes, which as singular events are particularly ill-suited for detection studies because of their infrequent occurrence, limited spatial range, and underestimation within global and even regional numerical models. Rationale: As a basis for this research we will show how stochastic daily-precipitation models—models in which the simulated interannual-to-multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—can be used to address many of these issues simultaneously. Through the novel application of these well-established models, we can first estimate the changes/trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed daily-precipitation characteristics, e.g. that can occur simply as a result of the stochastic evolution of daily weather events within a given climate. Detection of a change in the observed climate—either naturally or anthropogenically forced—can then be defined as any change relative to this stochastic variability, e.g. as changes/trends in the means and extremes that could only have occurred through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Potential for Precipitation of Solids during Storage of Non-Aluminum SNF Solutions

Non-aluminum clad spent nuclear fuels (NASNF) stored in the L-Area basin will be dissolved in H-Canyon using the 6.3D electrolytic dissolver. The solutions will be stored in either the hot or warm canyon until the preparation of a sludge batch for the Defense Waste Processing Facility. Spent nuclear fuel solutions could be stored for 1-2 years before transfer to the H-Area Tank Farm depending on the interval between sludge batches. The solution level in the storage tanks will be maintained; therefore, precipitation of solids due to evaporation is not an issue. However, the precipitation of solids from completely dissolved SNF due to solution instabilities has been observed during intermediate storage of solutions generating hydrated oxides.The presence of fissile material in these solids is generally associated with zirconium molybdate, which is known to act as a host lattice for Pu and can carry the actinides upon precipitation. The formation of zirconium molybdate solids which carry fissile material is a potential concern for the storage of NASNF solutions. To address this concern, the Savannah River National Laboratory performed a literature review to identify knowledge gaps which may require experimental work to determine if the formation of solids is a concern during storage of these solutions. Based on the literature review, the precipitation of zirconium molybdate solids from the Campaign 1 NASNF solutions during intermediatestorage is expected. This conclusion is supported by the identification of zirconium molybdate solids found on the H-Canyon 6.1D Dissolver MK-12 insert spacer. The formation of the zirconium molybdate solids is attributed to hydrolysis and radiolytic processes in the nitric acid solution. As the molybdate solids form, U and Pu can substitute for Zr in the crystal lattice resulting in co-precipitation. Generally, the Pu substitutes directly into the crystal lattice during precipitation while the U associated with the molybdate solids more likely absorbs from the solution. The U in the NASNF solutions is present as uranyl nitrate, a 2+ cation which will not substitute as easily into the molybdate crystal lattice for the Zr 4+ ion.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

COMBLE-ISLAS water isotopes in precipitation (COMBLEISLASISO)

During the measurement period, precipitation was sampled on daily to sub-daily basis with a sampling kit consiting of a clear plastic box (60x40x40 cm) mounted to a ground structure. Daily sampling lasted from 22 Feb to 24 Mar 2020. At a fixed time of day (10 UTC), samples were collected and the sampling box cleaned for the next sample. Additionally, during intense observations periods (IOPs) announced by ISLAS, ARMS scientists increased sampling frequency to sub-daily sampling. During the campaign period, 2 IOPs were conducted, with in total 12 samples taken. IOP1 lasted from 27 Feb 10 to 02 Mar 2020, and IOP2 lasted from 12 Mar to 14 Mar 2020. Solid precipitation in the box was then melted, transferred to an 8 ml glass vial, sealed and shipped to FARLAB (University of Bergen, Norway) for stable water isotope analysis. Measured stable isotope composition of precipitation samples will be related to conditions at other sampling locations, and at the evaporation site to inform about conservation of water isotope quantities. In the period from 22 Feb to 24 Mar, 23 daily samples were collected at 10 UTC for stable water isotope analysis. During the entire sampling period, a high variability of precipitation phase was encountered. Most samples were recovered in the form of graupel/snow (12 samples), as rain (7 samples), and the remaining samples fell as graupel, snow, rain or frozen rain. Precipitation amounts varied between <1 mm (26 Feb) and 140 mm (25 Feb) within the sampling box. Furthermore, higher-resolution sampling was conducted during 2 intense observation periods (IOPs). During IOP1, lasting from 27 Feb 10 UTC to 02 Mar 10 UTC, 7 samples were collected, all of them as solid phase precipitation. IOP2 lasted from 12 Mar 10 UTC to 14 Mar 09 UTC, and 5 samples (all as graupel/snow) were collected. Samples were processed according to FARLAB standard measurement procedures. In short, samples were transferred to 1.5 ml glass vials with rubber/PTFE septa (part #548-0907, VWR, USA). An autosampler (A0325, Picarro Inc) transferred ca. 2µl per injection into a high-precision vapourizer (A0211, Picarro Inc, USA) heated to 110°C. After blending with dry N2 (< 5 ppm H2O) the gas mixture was directed into the measurement cavity of a Cavity-Ring Down Spectrometer (L2140-i, Picarro Inc) for about 7 min with a typical water concentration of 20 000 ppm. Memory effects were reduced by two times measuring a vapour mixture at a mixing ratio of 50 000 ppm, obtained from 2 injections of 2 µl for 5 min at the beginning of each new sample vial. Thereafter, another 6 injections of 2 µl per sample were measured individually as described above, and averages of the last 5 injections were used for further processing. Three standards were measured at the beginning and end of each batch, including a drift standard DI2 (δD: -50.72±0.73 permil, δ18O: -7.63±0.10 permil), and for calibration the laboratory standards GLW (δD: -307.79±0.75 permil, δ18O: -40.02±0.07 permil) and EVAP2 (δD: 9.52±0.65 permil, δ18O: 1.81±0.13 permil). A detailed calibration report is included with the final uploaded data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimating Global Precipitation for Science and Application

Over the past two decades there has been vigorous development in the satellite assets and the algorithms necessary to estimate precipitation around the globe. In particular the highly successful joint NASAJAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, also joint between NASA and JAXA, have driven these issues. At the same time, the long-running Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) continues to extend a stable, climate-oriented view of global precipitation. This talk will provide an overview of these projects and the wider international community of precipitation datasets, sketch plans for next-generation products, and provide some examples of the best use for the different products. One key lesson learned is that different data sets are needed to address the variety of issues that need precipitation data, including detailed 3-D views of hurricanes, flash flood forecasting, drought analysis, and global change.

global precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Statistical Method for Reducing Sidelobe Clutter for the Ku-Band Precipitation Radar on Board the GPM Core Observatory

A statistical method to reduce the sidelobe clutter of the Ku-band precipitation radar (KuPR) of the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on board the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory is described and evaluated using DPR observations. The KuPR sidelobe clutter was much more severe than that of the Precipitation Radar on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and it has caused the misidentification of precipitation. The statistical method to reduce sidelobe clutter was constructed by subtracting the estimated sidelobe power, based upon a multiple regression model with explanatory variables of the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of surface, from the received power of the echo. The saturation of the NRCS at near-nadir angles, resulting from strong surface scattering, was considered in the calculation of the regression coefficients.The method was implemented in the KuPR algorithm and applied to KuPR-observed data. It was found that the received power from sidelobe clutter over the ocean was largely reduced by using the developed method, although some of the received power from the sidelobe clutter still remained. From the statistical results of the evaluations, it was shown that the number of KuPR precipitation events in the clutter region, after the method was applied, was comparable to that in the clutter-free region. This confirms the reasonable performance of the method in removing sidelobe clutter. For further improving the effectiveness of the method, it is necessary to improve the consideration of the NRCS saturation, which will be explored in future work.

Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena; Precipitation; Obs↗

NASA NTRS2017

Global Precipitation Products at NASA GES DISC for Supporting Agriculture Research and Applications

This presentation describes precipitation products available at the NASA GES DISC that support agricultural research. XXXX Key environmental variables for agriculture: precipitation, temperature, water (soil moisture), solar radiation, NDVI, etc. Rainfed agriculture - major farming practices that rely on rainfall for water. Rainfed agriculture: >95% of farmed land (sub- Saharan Africa); 90% (Latin America); 75% (Near East and North Africa); 65% (East Asia); 60% (South Asia). Precipitation is very important for rainfed agriculture. Droughts can cause severe damage. Precipitation information can be used to monitor the growing season. The Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC), one of 12 NASA data centers, located in Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. The GES DISC is a major data archive center for global precipitation, water & energy cycles, atmospheric composition, and climate variability Global and regional precipitation datasets (satellite-based and data assimilation Data services (subsetting, format conversion, online visualization, etc.) User services are available FAQs, How to (recipes), Glossary, etc. Social media (Twitter, YouTube, User forum) Help desk (phone, email, online feedback) Training materials (ARSET => Applied Remote Sensing Training) Liu,

precipitation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reassessing Post-Eruption Precipitation Anomalies in the Context of Natural Variability

Several studies have reported anomalous precipitation in the years that follow large volcanic eruptions. Here we assess precipitation anomalies in post-eruption years according to their rarity in non-volcanic periods. Using global simulations of climate over the last millennium, we reevaluate the response of precipitation to volcanic aerosols in terms of novel metrics. In this approach, the magnitude of the precipitation response is contextualized through comparisons to internal variability. We also examine the connections between global and regional-scale precipitation anomalies. Finally, we assess to what extent a unique ‘fingerprint’ of eruptions can be seen in the observational precipitation record in spite of concurrent internal variability.

volcanic eruptions↗

DOE OSTI2011

Geophysical Monitoring and Reactive Transport Modeling of Ureolytically-Driven Calcium Carbonate Precipitation

Ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation is the basis for a promising in-situ remediation method for sequestration of divalent radionuclide and trace metal ions. It has also been proposed for use in geotechnical engineering for soil strengthening applications. Monitoring the occurrence, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution of calcium carbonate precipitation in the subsurface is critical for evaluating the performance of this technology and for developing the predictive models needed for engineering application. In this study, we conducted laboratory column experiments using natural sediment and groundwater to evaluate the utility of geophysical (complex resistivity and seismic) sensing methods, dynamic synchrotron x-ray computed tomography (micro-CT), and reactive transport modeling for tracking ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation processes under site relevant conditions. Reactive transport modeling with TOUGHREACT successfully simulated the changes of the major chemical components during urea hydrolysis. Even at the relatively low level of urea hydrolysis observed in the experiments, the simulations predicted an enhanced calcium carbonate precipitation rate that was 3-4 times greater than the baseline level. Reactive transport modeling results, geophysical monitoring data and micro-CT imaging correlated well with reaction processes validated by geochemical data. In particular, increases in ionic strength of the pore fluid during urea hydrolysis predicted by geochemical modeling were successfully captured by electrical conductivity measurements and confirmed by geochemical data. The low level of urea hydrolysis and calcium carbonate precipitation suggested by the model and geochemical data was corroborated by minor changes in seismic P-wave velocity measurements and micro-CT imaging; the latter provided direct evidence of sparsely distributed calcium carbonate precipitation. Ion exchange processes promoted through NH4+ production during urea hydrolysis were incorporated in the model and captured critical changes in the major metal species. The electrical phase increases were potentially due to ion exchange processes that modified charge structure at mineral/water interfaces. Our study revealed the potential of geophysical monitoring for geochemical changes during urea hydrolysis and the advantages of combining multiple approaches to understand complex biogeochemical processes in the subsurface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Effects of Aerosols on Autumn Precipitation over Mid-Eastern China

Long-term observational data indicated a decreasing trend for the amount of autumn precipitation (i.e. 54.3 mm per decade) over Mid-Eastern China, especially after 1980s (~ 5.6% per decade). To examine the cause of the decreasing trend, the mechanisms associated with the change of autumn precipitation were investigated from the perspective of water vapor transportation, atmospheric stability and cloud microphysics. Results show that the decrease of convective available potential energy (i.e. 12.81 J kg-1/ decade) and change of cloud microphysics, which were closely related to the increase of aerosol loading during the past twenty years, were the two primary factors responsible for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Ours results showed that increased aerosol could enhance the atmospheric stability thus weaken the convection. Meanwhile, more aerosols also led to a significant decline of raindrop concentration and to a delay of raindrop formation because of smaller size of cloud droplets. Thus, increased aerosols produced by air pollution could be one of the major reasons for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Furthermore, we found that the aerosol effects on precipitation in autumn was more significant than in other seasons, partly due to the relatively more stable synoptic system in autumn. The impact of large-scale circulation dominated in autumn and the dynamic influence on precipitation was more important than the thermodynamic activity.

AEROSOLS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Controlling the distribution of microbially induced calcite precipitation in the subsurface

Microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP) has gained interest as an environmentally friendly method for a number of subsurface applications, including consolidation of granular materials, modification of permeability, metal and radionuclide immobilization, self-healing of concrete, etc. MICP relies on microorganisms that when provided with appropriate nutrients create chemical conditions conducive to calcite precipitation. A major challenge is controlling and predicting spatial distribution of precipitates, whether the target be uniform or nonuniform (e.g., in specific strata or locations) deposition. The spatial distribution depends on calcite precipitation kinetics, the kinetics of the biological and chemical reactions that generate the required Ca2+ and carbonate, locations and phase association of the microbial catalyst, and timing of the arrival of amendments introduced into the medium; the latter depends on hydraulic boundary conditions and medium properties (porosity, permeability). We present results from a field experiment where we sought to induce uniform precipitation relying only on indigenous microorganisms and calcium within an approximately 3 meter thick saturated zone between two wells located 4 meters apart. We employed a continuous recirculation design; water extracted from the downgradient well was amended with urea and molasses and re-injected into the upgradient well for 12 days and the aqueous chemistry and microbiology was monitored for 419 days. Measurements of substrates and products, and isotopic data for DIC all indicated desired reactions were stimulated within the zone and downstream, during active recirculation and afterward. The results could be reasonably simulated by postulating that the recirculation resulted in homogeneous aqueous geochemistry within the entire zone, that a metabolic lag time persisted during the recirculation period, and that native ureolytic microorganisms were all attached.While alternative scenarios cannot be ruled out, the data and model support that spatial distribution of urolytic calcite precipitation can be manipulated by engineering design, although still constrained by site hydrogeology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Physics-Based Modeling of Precipitation in Nuclear Structural Materials

One form of materials degradation in nuclear structural materials, including both core austenitic stainless steels (SS) and reactor pressure vessels (RPVSs), is formation of second phase precipitates. These precipitates increase the materials hardness and consequently make them brittle. Predicting the level of embrittlement stemming from precipitated phases is a critical question in extending the lives of current light water reactors (LWR) to 80 or even 100 years. We have developed physics-based models which combine CALPHAD (Calculation of Phase Diagram), Cluster Dynamics (for both precipitation kinetics and defect evolution) and classical nucleation theory (using the MatCalc code for precipitation kinetics in complex alloys) to predict the evolution of second phase precipitation in nuclear structural materials under LWR extended life conditions. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity Tests of Aluminum Precipitate Preparation Methods on Head Loss through Debris Beds on a Sump Screen

During a Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs), buffered borated water as a coolant from the Refueling Water Storage Tank (RWST) will be injected into the primary loop to cool down the core depending on the break size. For long-term cooling, the coolant will be collected in the containment sump. Then, the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) will pump the coolant through the sump strainers into the reactor. During this phase, buffered borated water produces chemical precipitate by reacting with the structural materials in the containment. Chemical effects evaluated as part of Generic Safety Issue 191 (GSI-191) resolution studies are broadly defined as any chemically induced phenomenon that affects ECCS performance. Initial chemical effects studies jointly sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Industry collaborators led to a Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) study that provided bases for deterministic quantification of chemical effects. The WCAP-16530-NP developed protocols to produce Aluminum Oxyhydroxide (AlOOH), Calcium Phosphate, and Sodium Aluminum Silicate (SAS). The surrogate generation protocol used the metal salt (aluminum nitrate and calcium acetate) unlike post-LOCA accident scenarios where metals leach into a buffered borated solution. Bahn et al. demonstrated that the WCAP-16530-NP SAS precipitate did not produce as much head loss as the WCAP-16530-NP AlOOH precipitate, thus, the present study focused on the effect of AlOOH precipitate on head loss through a fibrous debris bed. In the past, most of the tests were conducted in high approach velocity conditions, approximately 0.03 m/s. After modifications of sump strainer size in PWRs, the approach velocity to the sump strainer was reduced by an order of magnitude, approximately 0.001 ∼ 0.003 m/s. Howe et al. and Kim et al. conducted several head loss tests at the approach velocity of 0.003 m/s. In the present study, an approach velocity of 0.0006 m/s was selected for an extremely slow power plant condition. A PCI strainer design was used as previous head loss tests and debris bypass tests conducted by Lee et al. Three different chemical precipitate preparation methods were used in this study. The additional head loss of the debris bed caused by those chemical precipitates was investigated. The debris bed was produced with NUKON{sup R} fiberglass thermal insulator and additional particulates including dirt, Tin powder, acrylic powder, and Calcium silicate (CalSil). (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2012

Statistical Significance of the Trends in Monthly Heavy Precipitation Over the US

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall's {tau} test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France

A statistical downscaling approach for precipitation in France based on the analog method and its evaluation for different combinations of predictors is described, with a focus on the transferability of the method to the future climate. First, the realism of downscaled present-day precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability for different combinations of predictors from four reanalyses is assessed. Satisfactory results are obtained but elaborated predictors do not lead to major and consistent across reanalyses improvements. The downscaling method is then evaluated on its capacity to capture precipitation trends in the last decades. As uncertainties in downscaled trends due to the choice of the reanalysis are large andobserved trends are weak, this analysis does not lead to strong conclusions on the applicability of the method to a changing climate. The temporal transferability is then assessed thanks to a perfect-model framework. The statistical downscaling relationship is built using present-day predictors and precipitation simulated by twelve regional climate models. The entire projections are then downscaled, and future downscaled and simulated precipitation changes are compared. A good temporal transferability is obtained only with a specific combination of predictors. Finally, the regional climate models are downscaled thanks to the relationship built with reanalyses and observations, for the best combination of predictors. Results are similar to the changes simulated by the models, which reinforces our confidence in the realism of the models and of the downscaling method. Uncertainties in precipitation change due to reanalyses are found to be limited compared to those due to regional simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Nonlinear response of hail precipitation rate to environmental moisture content: A real case modeling study of an episodic midlatitude severe convective event: Hail and Environmental Moisture

The dependence of hail production on initial moisture content in a simulated midlatitude episodic convective event occurred in northeast China on 10–11 June 2005 was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a double-moment microphysics scheme where both graupel and hail are considered. Three sensitivity experiments were performed by modifying the initial water vapor mixing ratio profile to 90% (“Q-10%”), 105% (“Q+5%”), and 110% (“Q+10%”) of the initial conditions used for the control simulation. It was found that increasing the initial water vapor content caused the hail and total precipitation rates to increase during the first 5 h. The precipitation response to increasing water vapor content was monotonic for this first episode; however, for the event's second episode, the hail precipitation rate responds to the initial water vapor profile nonlinearly, while the total precipitation rate responds mostly monotonically. In particular, simulation Q+5% achieves the largest hail production rate while simulation Q+10% has the largest total precipitation rate. In contrast, during the second episode simulation Q-10% has the strongest vertical motion, produces the most cloud ice and snow, but has the lowest hail production. Analysis shows that increasing the initial moisture content directly increases the precipitation during the first episode, which subsequently induces a stronger, longer-asting cold pool that limits the development of deep convection during the second episode.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the Roles of Fire Frequency and Precipitation in Determining Woody Plant Expansion in Central U.S. Grasslands

Abstract Woody plant expansion into grasslands and savannas is occurring and accelerating worldwide and often impacts ecosystem processes. Understanding and predicting the environmental and ecological impacts of encroachment has led to a variety of methodologies for assessing its onset, transition, and stability, generally relying on dynamical systems approaches. Here we continue this general line of investigation to facilitate the understanding of the roles of precipitation frequency and intensity and fire frequency on the conversion of grasslands to woody‐dominated systems focusing on the central United States. A low‐dimensional model with stochastic precipitation and fire disturbance is introduced to examine the complex interactions between precipitation and fire as mechanisms that may suppress or facilitate increases in woody cover. By using Lyapunov exponents, we are able to ascertain the relative control exerted on woody encroachment through these mechanisms. Our results indicate that precipitation frequency is a more important control on woody encroachment than the intensity of individual precipitation events. Fire, however, exerts a much more dominant impact on the limitation of encroachment over the range of precipitation variability considered here. These results indicate that fire management may be an effective strategy to slow the onset of woody species into grasslands. While climate change might predict a reduced potential for woody encroachment in the near future, these results indicate a reduction in woody fraction may be unlikely when considering anthropogenic fire suppression.

Brunsell, N. A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons

Abstract In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge‐based, satellite‐related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high‐latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

Historical changes of global precipitation in the 20th century simulated by a climate model are investigated. The results simulated with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation, where the latent heat changes associated with the precipitation change is nearly balanced with changes to atmospheric radiative cooling. The atmospheric radiative cooling is dominated by its clear-sky component, which is found to correlate with changes to both column water vapor and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The water vapor-dependent component of the clear-sky radiative cooling is then found to scale with global temperature change through the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This component results in a tendency of global precipitation increase with increasing temperature at a rate of approximately 2%K -1 . Another component of the clear-sky radiative cooling, which is well correlated with changes to AOD, is also found to vary in magnitude among different scenarios with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics that controls the precipitation efficiency, a major factor influencing the aerosol scavenging process that can lead to different aerosol loadings. These results propose how different characteristics of cloud microphysics can cause different aerosol loadings that in turn perturb global energy balance to significantly change global precipitation. This implies a possible coupling of aerosol–cloud interaction with aerosol–radiation interaction in the context of global energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗