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At least 883 records · Page 49

Community detection in hypergraphs via mutual information maximization

Abstract The hypergraph community detection problem seeks to identify groups of related vertices in hypergraph data. We propose an information-theoretic hypergraph community detection algorithm which compresses the observed data in terms of community labels and community-edge intersections. This algorithm can also be viewed as maximum-likelihood inference in a degree-corrected microcanonical stochastic blockmodel. We perform the compression/inference step via simulated annealing. Unlike several recent algorithms based on canonical models, our microcanonical algorithm does not require inference of statistical parameters such as vertex degrees or pairwise group connection rates. Through synthetic experiments, we find that our algorithm succeeds down to recently-conjectured thresholds for sparse random hypergraphs. We also find competitive performance in cluster recovery tasks on several hypergraph data sets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A TEST OF THE FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE BROAD LINE REGION IN ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

The origin of the broad line region (BLR) in active galaxies remains unknown. It seems to be related to the underlying accretion disk, but an efficient mechanism is required to raise the material from the disk surface without giving signatures of the outflow that are too strong in the case of the low ionization lines. We discuss in detail two proposed mechanisms: (1) radiation pressure acting on dust in the disk atmosphere creating a failed wind and (2) the gravitational instability of the underlying disk. We compare the predicted location of the inner radius of the BLR in those two scenarios with the observed position obtained from the reverberation studies of several active galaxies. The failed dusty outflow model well represents the observational data while the predictions of the self-gravitational instability are not consistent with observations. The issue that remains is why do we not see any imprints of the underlying disk instability in the BLR properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the identifiability of linear dynamical systems

Consider the situation in which the unknown parameters of a stationary linear system may be parametrized by a set of unknown parameters. The question thus arises of when such a set of parameters can be uniquely identified on the basis of observed data. This problem is considered here both in the case of input and output observations and in the case of output observations in the presence of a white noise input. Conditions for local identifiability are derived for both situations and a sufficient condition for global identifiability is given for the former situation, i.e., when simultaneous input and output observations are available.

Glover, K.↗

Anomalous increase of solar anisotropy above 150GV in 1981-1983

An analysis was carried out of the observed data with Nagoya (surface). Misato (34mwe) and Sakashita (80mwe) multidirectional muon telescope, for the solar activity maximum period of 1978-1983. These data respond to primaries extending over the median rigidity range 60GV to 600GV. The observed amplitude at Sakashita station in 1981-1983 increased, especially in 1982; the amplitude is twice as large as that in 1978-1980, when those at Nagoya and Misato stations are nearly the same as those in 1978-1980. Uni-directional anisotropy is derived by the best fit method by assuming the flat rigidity spectrum with the upper cutoff rigidity Pu. The value of Pu obtained is 270GV in 1981-1983 and 150GV in 1978-1980.

Ueno, H.↗

Comparative energetics of the observed and simulated global circulation during the special observing periods of FGGE

Energetics of the observed and simulated global circulation are evaluated in the zonal spectral domain for the special observing periods of FGGE. The study utilizes GLA analyses of FGGE observational data and parallel simulation experiments. There are noticeable differences in energy transformations between the observation and simulation during SOP-1. These include the baroclinic conversion C(n) by the zonal mean motion and short-wave disturbances, and the nonlinear wave-wave interaction L(n) at the long and short waves. The energy transformations of the short-wave disturbances are much more intense in the simulated circulation than in the observation. However, good agreement is noted in the conversion and dissipation of kinetic energy in the large- and cyclone-wave range n = 1-10. Spectral distributions of global energy transformations at the long- and cyclone-wave range indicate that the SOP-2 simulation agrees more closely with the observed fields than the SOP-1 simulation. Other pertinent points of energetics diagnosis are also included in the discussion.

Kung, E. C.↗

An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

Combining Disparate Measures of Metabolic Rate During Simulated Spacewalks

Scientists from NASA's Extravehicular Activities (EVA) Physiology Systems and Performance Project help design space suits for future missions, during which astronauts are expected to perform EVA activities on the Lunar or Martian surface. During an EVA, an astronaut's integrated metabolic rate is used to predict how much longer the activity can continue and still provide a safe margin of remaining consumables. For EVAs in the Apollo era, NASA physicians monitored live data feeds of heart rate, O 2 consumption, and liquid cooled garment (LCG) temperatures, which were subjectively combined or compared to produce an estimate of metabolic rate. But these multiple data feeds sometimes provided conflicting estimates of metabolic rate, making real-time calculations of remaining time difficult for physician/monitors. Currently, designs planned for the Constellation Program EVAs utilize an automated, but largely heuristic methodology for incorporating the above three measurements, plus an additional one - CO 2 production, ignoring data that appears in conflict; however a more rigorous model-based approach is desirable. In this study, we show how principal axis factor analysis, in combination with OLS regression and LOWESS smoothing can be used to estimate metabolic rate as a data-driven weighted average of heart rate, O 2 consumption, LCG temperature data, and CO 2 production. Preliminary results suggest less sensitivity to occasional spikes in observed data feeds, and reasonable within-subject reproducibility when applied to subsequent tasks. These methods do not require physician monitoring and as such can be automated in the electronic components of future space suits. With additional validation, our models show promise for increasing astronaut safety, while reducing the need for and potential errors associated with human monitoring of multiple systems.

Alan H Feiveson↗

Virtual Collections: An Earth Science Data Curation Service

The role of Earth science data centers has traditionally been to maintain central archives that serve openly available Earth observation data. However, in order to ensure data are as useful as possible to a diverse user community, Earth science data centers must move beyond simply serving as an archive to offering innovative data services to user communities. A virtual collection, the end product of a curation activity that searches, selects, and synthesizes diffuse data and information resources around a specific topic or event, is a data curation service that improves the discoverability, accessibility, and usability of Earth science data and also supports the needs of unanticipated users. Virtual collections minimize the amount of the time and effort needed to begin research by maximizing certainty of reward and by providing a trustworthy source of data for unanticipated users. This presentation will define a virtual collection in the context of an Earth science data center and will highlight a virtual collection case study created at the Global Hydrology Resource Center data center.

Data↗

Understanding the Role of 𝛼 Particles in Oblique Heliospheric Shock Oscillations

Recent observations by DSCOVR provide high temporal resolution (50 samples per second) magnetic vector field data that allows investigating the details of oblique heliospheric shock oscillations. It was found that some of these shocks exhibit magnetic oscillations, both downstream and upstream of the shock front. The DSCOVR/MAG magnetic field data are supplemented by an extensive database of low Mach number (M < 3) low‐β (<1) shock data observed by Wind albeit with lower temporal resolution. Motivated by the observations, we use the 2.5D hybrid model of the oblique shocks with α particles in addition to kinetic protons and electron fluid. We model the properties of the oblique shocks for a number of typical parameters found in observations and study the effects of the shock parameters and the relative α particle abundances on the properties of the shock magnetic field, density, and velocity oscillations. We find the α particles “surf” on the shock front and produce a wake of density oscillations. We examine the details of the phase space of the ions as well as the ion velocity distribution functions in various parts of the shock and study their nonthermal properties. We determine the effects of the α particle kinetic properties and abundances on the structure and dynamics of the shock downstream oscillations for a range of parameters relevant to low Mach number low‐β heliospheric shocks.

Ofman, L.↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Determination of the coronal magnetic field from vector magnetograph data

A new algorithm was developed, tested, and applied to determine coronal magnetic fields above solar active regions. The coronal field above NOAA active region AR5747 was successfully estimated on 20 Oct. 1989 from data taken at the Mees Solar Observatory of the Univ. of Hawaii. It was shown that observational data can be used to obtain realistic estimates of coronal magnetic fields. The model has significantly extended the realism with which the coronal magnetic field can be inferred from observations. The understanding of coronal phenomena will be greatly advanced by a reliable technique, such as the one presented, for deducing the detailed spatial structure of the coronal field. The payoff from major current and proposed NASA observational efforts is heavily dependent on the success with which the coronal field can be inferred from vector magnetograms. In particular, the present inability to reliably obtain the coronal field has been a major obstacle to the theoretical advancement of solar flare theory and prediction. The results have shown that the evolutional algorithm can be used to estimate coronal magnetic fields.

Mikic, Zoran↗

Transit timing variations for planets co-orbiting in the horseshoe regime

Although not yet detected, pairs of exoplanets in 1:1 mean motion resonance probably exist. Low eccentricity, near-planar orbits, which in the comoving frame follow horseshoe trajectories, are one of the possible stable configurations. Here we study transit timing variations (TTVs) produced by mutual gravitational interaction of planets in this orbital architecture, with the goal to develop methods that can be used to recognize this case in observational data. In particular, we use a semi-analytic model to derive parametric constraints that should facilitate data analysis. We show that characteristic traits of the TTVs can directly constrain the (1) ratio of planetary masses and (2) their total mass (divided by that of the central star) as a function of the minimum angular separation as seen from the star. In an ideal case, when transits of both planets are observed and well characterized, the minimum angular separation can also be inferred from the data. As a result, parameters derived from the observed transit timing series alone can directly provide both planetary masses scaled to the central star mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regional Assimilation of NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NW S forecast operations and decision-making. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), is expected to advance climate research and weather prediction into the 21 st century. It is one of six instruments onboard Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA s Earth Observing System. AIRS, along with two partner microwave sounding instruments, represents the most advanced atmospheric sounding system ever deployed in space. The system is capable of measuring the atmospheric temperature in the troposphere with radiosonde accuracies of 1 K over 1 km-thick layers under both clear and cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived moisture profiles will exceed that obtained by radiosondes. It is imperative that the scientific community is prepared to take full advantage of next-generation satellite data that will become available within the next decade. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure designed to optimally assimilate AIRS data at high spatial resolution over both land and ocean. The assimilation system used in this study is the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory used extensively around the globe. Results will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, optimal assimilation strategies, and the impact of the AIRS data on subsequent numerical forecasts at 12 km produced by the next generation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public–Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public–private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 h) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models and, second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the United States (the upper Great Plains and Texas) and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, several lidars and surface flux stations, 184 instrumented tall towers, and over 400 nacelle anemometers. Results demonstrate that a substantial reduction (12%–5% for forecast hours 1–12) in power RMSE was achieved from the combination of improved numerical weather prediction models and assimilation of new observations, equivalent to the previous decade’s worth of improvements found for low-level winds in NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational weather forecast models. Data-denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% improvement came from the new observations. Ensemble forecasts developed by the private sector partners also produced significant improvements in power production and ramp prediction. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Retrieval of wind temperature and pressure from single Doppler radar and a numerical model

A 4D data assimilation algorithm to obtain 3D wind and thermodynamic fields from radial velocities and a numerical model is derived. It is a blend of the continuous updating technique of Charney et al. (1969) and a diagnostic pressure and temperature retrieval technique suggested by Gal-Chen (1978). This model is tested only against model-generated data which are viewed as 'data observed from a real atmosphere'. A thermal bubble developing in a dry, neutral environment is simulated. The thermal recovery technique is found to be a necessary procedure to obtain successful data assimilation results. The present assimilation method is found to be capable of reducing the 'observational error' and making the assimilation run converge toward the control run. Without data insertion, errors in the nonobserved wind component are large.

Liou, Yu-Chieng↗

NASA's Big Earth Data Initiative Accomplishments

The goal of NASA's effort for BEDI is to improve the usability, discoverability, and accessibility of Earth Observation data in support of societal benefit areas. Accomplishments: In support of BEDI goals, datasets have been entered into Common Metadata Repository(CMR), made available via the Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP), have a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) registered for the dataset, and to support fast visualization many layers have been added in to the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS).

CMR↗

Prototype Local Data Integration System and Central Florida Data Deficiency

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) task on the Local Data Integration System (LDIS) and central Florida data deficiency. The objectives of the task are to identify all existing meteorological data sources within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), identify and configure an appropriate LDIS to integrate these data, and implement a working prototype to be used for limited case studies and data non-incorporation (DNI) experiments. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. The LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short term forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models. In combination with a suitable visualization tool, LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The utility of LDIS depends largely on the reliability and availability of observational data. Therefore, it is important to document all existing meteorological data sources around central Florida that can be incorporated by it. Several factors contribute to the data density and coverage over east central Florida including the level in the atmosphere, distance from KSC/CCAS, time, and prevailing weather. The central Florida mesonet consists of existing surface meteorological and hydrological data available from the Tampa NWS and data servers at Miami and Jacksonville. However the utility of these data for operational use is limited, mainly because there are relatively few additional meteorological observations within 50 km of KSC/CCAS to supplement existing METAR and KSC/CCAS tower reports.

Manobianco, John↗