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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of Gaussian processes and neural networks for computer model emulation and calibration

The Department of Energy relies on complex physics simulations for prediction in domains like cosmology, nuclear theory, and materials science. These simulations are often extremely computationally intensive, with some requiring days or weeks for a single simulation. In order to assure their accuracy, these models are calibrated against observational data in order to estimate inputs and systematic biases. Because of their great computational complexity, this process typically requires the construction of an emulator, a fast approximation to the simulation. In this paper, two emulator approaches are compared: Gaussian process regression and neural networks. Their emulation accuracy and calibration performance on three real problems of Department of Energy interest is considered. On these problems, the Gaussian process emulator tends to be more accurate with narrower, but still well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The neural network emulator is accurate, but tends to have large uncertainty on its predictions. Finally, as a result, calibration with the Gaussian process emulator produces more constrained posteriors that still perform well in prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of multi-messenger astrophysical data: Joint and coherent inference of gravitational waves and kilonovae

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers can provide information on the neutron star’s equation of state (EOS) above the nuclear saturation density by directly constraining the mass-radius diagram. We present a Bayesian framework for joint and coherent analyses of multi-messenger binary neutron star signals. As a first application, we analyze the gravitational-wave GW170817 and the kilonova (kN) AT2017gfo data. These results are then combined with the most recent X-ray pulsar analyses of PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620 to obtain new EOS constraints.We extend the bajes infrastructure with a joint likelihood for multiple datasets, support for various semi-analytical kN models, and numerical-relativity (NR)-informed relations for the mass ejecta, as well as a technique to include and marginalize over modeling uncertainties. The analysis of GW170817 used the TEOBResumS effective-one-body waveform template to model the gravitational-wave signal. The analysis of AT2017gfo used a baseline multicomponent spherically symmetric model for the kN light curves. Various constraints on the mass-radius diagram and neutron star properties were then obtained by resampling over a set of ten million parameterized EOSs, which was built under minimal assumptions (general relativity and causality).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on branching ratios for 111 Ag

Our understanding on the distribution of fragment masses following fission, or fission yields is largely impacted by the quality of nuclear data. One of the most straightforward and reliable ways to determine the number of fissions that occurred in a chain reaction is done via detection of the characteristic γ-rays emitted during the β decay of the fission product. These γ rays are emitted in only a fraction of the decays, and this fraction (the γ-ray intensities) must be known accurately to determine the total number of fissions. Many long-lived fission products, such as 111 Ag, play an important role in science-based stockpile stewardship and nuclear forensics. The γ-ray intensities from the decay of 111 Ag are known to only 5%, leading to a 5% uncertainty in fission-chain yield. This work aims to improve the precision of these γ-ray intensities for the most intense emissions following the decay of 111 Ag, as seen in Figure 1.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indirect determination of neutron-capture cross sections for Sm isotopes

Neutron-capture cross sections in the energy range of 0.01–10 MeV for Sm 146 , 148 , 150 , 152 nuclei were calculated using the γ -ray strength and level density functions extracted from the Oslo-type experiments. The uncertainties in the cross-section values were determined using a Monte Carlo method. For the Sm 148 , 150 , 152 isotopes, the calculated cross sections are in a good agreement with the existing experimental data and for the Sm 146 nucleus, an experimental ( n , γ ) cross section is reported for the first time. The results are compared with the ENDF, EAF, and TENDL evaluations. Maxwellian-averaged cross sections were also calculated using the same input γ SF and LD functions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the $\textit{B}(\textit{E}2 ↑)$ strengths of 36 Ca and 38 Ca

In this work, the $B(E2, 0^+_1 → 2^+_1)$ strengths of 36 Ca and 38 Ca are measured to be 131(20) $e^2\text{fm}^4$ and 101(11) $e^2\text{fm}^4$, respectively. The $\textit{B}(\textit{E}2)$ value for 36 Ca required a measurement of the p/γ branching ratio because the 2 + state is proton unbound. This branching ratio is $B_p$=0.087(8). These $\textit{B}(\textit{E}2)$ and branching-ratio values can be reproduced in the shell-model with the ZMB2 interaction, an interaction that predicts the $\textit{Z} = 20 \textit{sd}$-shell closure is incomplete with large proton pf-shell occupancies in the ground state. These occupancies are at odds with other shell-model and energy-density-functional calculations of 36 Ca. New data are used to provide an update on constraints of the density dependence of the symmetry energy through mirror charge-radii differences as well as to help reduce uncertainties of the astrophysical important 35 K(p,γ) reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Neural Network Informed Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

In subsurface flow modeling, quantifying the uncertainty of model parameters and the corresponding uncertainly on output quantities is a crucial task for groundwater management. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can take advantage of observed data to estimate parameters in a Bayesian setting. However, MCMC can be slow to converge and produce highly correlated samples when the dimensions of the parameters is high. Using gradients for the posterior distribution can help samplers explore the parameter space more efficiently, but obtaining gradients can be computationally challenging.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ECAR-2322 As-Run Thermal Analysis Of The AGC-2 Experiment

The second Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC-2) experiment was designed to irradiate various types of graphite specimens at a temperature of 600°C. The specimens were irradiated in an instrumented leadout capsule experiment in the south flux trap of the ATR during cycles 149A, 1498, 1508, 151A, and 1518. Temperature was monitored using twelve thermocouples located at various elevations in the reactor core, and a helium-argon gas mixture was used for gas gap temperature control of the specimens. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate specimen temperature using measured data on reactor power and helium-argon gas flows, and as-run calculations of heating rates and displacement per atom (DPA) in graphite. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing measured and calculated thermocouple temperatures. Uncertainty in gas gaps may preclude an accurate temperature calculation. In these cases, adjustments are made to the thermal model in order to reconcile the measured and calculated thermocouple temperature and to ensure the accuracy of the calculated specimen temperature.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ECAR-3386 AS-RUN THERMAL ANALYSIS OF THE AGC-3 EXPERIMENT

The third Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC-3) experiment was designed to irradiate various types of graphite specimens at a temperature of 900°C. The specimens were irradiated in an instrumented leadout capsule experiment in the east flux trap of the ATR during cycles 152B, 154B, 155A, and 155B. Temperature was monitored using twelve thermocouples located at various elevations in the reactor core, and a helium-argon gas mixture was used for gas gap temperature control of the specimens. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate specimen temperature using measured data on reactor power and helium-argon gas flows, and as-run calculations of heating rates and displacement per atom (DPA) in graphite. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing measured and calculated thermocouple temperatures. Uncertainty in gas gaps may preclude an accurate temperature calculation. In these cases, adjustments are made to the thermal model in order to reconcile the measured and calculated thermocouple temperature and to ensure the accuracy of the calculated specimen temperature.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging Inequality-Constrained Data for Enhanced Liquidus Temperature Prediction in Nuclear Waste Glass Melts

Inequality-constrained data are frequently discarded in engineering, leading to significant information loss in data-scarce domains like glass characterization in nuclear waste vitrification. This paper presents a nonparametric censored-data regression framework based on an l1-norm optimization criterion that leverages slack variables to integrate left-, right-, and interval-constrained observations into training without distributional assumptions. Validated on synthetic data and a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) for predicting liquidus temperature (TL), the method improved R2 from 0.60 to 0.89 and reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 48% (51.46 to 26.89?rC) on deterministic values. The traditional models failed to satisfy any inequality constraints while the proposed l1-norm PINN satisfies 81.25% of the constraints. The proposed framework effectively extracts actionable information from previously unusable data to enhance predictive accuracy, reduce epistemic uncertainty, and ensure physical consistency in complex industrial applications.

Garcia-Morado, Erick↗
DOE OSTI2021

LLNL International Working Group on Gamma Spectrometry - Preparation of IDB Dataset [Slides]

The spectral information and associated metadata, including source information, detector setup, and shielding configuration is described in human readable, comma-separated text files (csv). Six csv files are associated with each material type and include the following information (where [Isotope] is U, Pu, and MOX): [Isotope]_measurement_metadata Metadata of the measurement configuration, including material composition at time of acquisition (decay corrected from certificate date). Data that is unique to a measurement configuration e.g. detector geometry, source-detector distance, analyzer and other electronics used, attenuating materials are provided in this file. [Isotope]_spectrum_metadata The information that is unique to the spectrum. This includes detector specifications (e.g. date of acquisition, number of channels, gain (keV/channel), energy range, real and live time, full width half-maximum (FWHM) of the 186 or 208 peak for uranium or plutonium measurements, respectively. [Isotope]_source_metadata The source material used for the measurement, this includes the ratio and uncertainties of isotopes present and processing information of the material. In addition, the certificate information for the source material is listed. [Isotope]_spectrum_counts_metadata The counts per channel for each spectrum. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. [Isotope]_spectrum_checksum_metadata The MD5 checksum for the original spectrum file. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. This information is provided to prevent duplication of entries in the database. [Isotope]_provenance Details on the csv data provider, including laboratory and contract information.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of electron backscattering in the MCNP6.3 code

A new electron backscattering validation suite has been developed for the MCNP® code. The calculations in this suite cover both condensed history and single-event transport methods, seven different elemental materials ranging from beryllium to uranium, and incident electron energies from 200 eV to 14.1 MeV. In general, the accuracy of the MCNP code for electron backscattering calculations is energy-dependent. For incident electron energies below 2 keV, the condensed history method is not applied while the single-event method shows poor agreement with experimental measurements due to poor accuracy of the underlying atomic data. For incident energies between 2 keV and 256 keV, the single-event method typically shows better agreement with experiments, while for incident energies above 256 keV the condensed history method gives better accuracy. Additionally, agreement with experimental data is generally worse for low- Z materials such as beryllium and carbon, which may reflect deficiencies in the data or physics underlying electron transport through light elements in the MCNP code. The new electron backscattering validation suite, along with the previously introduced electron stopping power and Lockwood energy deposition validation suites, provide MCNP users with a quantified understanding of the uncertainties in electron transport calculations. Future improvements to electron transport in the MCNP code are necessary for low energies (≤ 2 keV) and for low- Z materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of Piplus - Argon Absorption and Charge Exchange Interactions Using Protodune-sp

ProtoDUNE-SP is a prototype detector for the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). It is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) with a similar configuration to DUNE's detector, and is designed to provide a test-bed for the future experiment. In addition to serving as a prototype, its 0.3 - 7 GeV/ c charged particle beam line provided the ability to perform physics measurements of pions, protons, kaons, muons, and electrons. Importantly, the LArTPC allowed for the measurement of hadronic interactions on argon nuclei.Pions are often present in the final state of neutrino interactions in the energy range of DUNE's neutrino beam. These particles can undergo various types of interactions with argon nuclei in the detector, and this can interfere with the characterization of neutrino interactions in DUNE's far detector. The rate of these so-called secondary interactionswill be accounted for using Monte Carlo simulation of neutrino interactions. Measurements of secondary interaction rates provide necessary data which can be used to estimate and propagate uncertainties or provide tunes of the secondary interaction model used within DUNE's experimental simulation.This analysis provides a simultaneous measurement of the piplus - Ar absorption and charge exchange cross sections using 1 GeV/ c piplus data taken by ProtoDUNE-SP during its initial run period in Fall 2018. This is one of the first hadronic interaction measurements provided by ProtoDUNE-SP. It is also the first piplus - Ar absorption measurement in 20 years and the first ever piplus - Ar charge exchange measurement.Read

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A proposed method for addressing large unphysical uncertainties in mubar

Mubar uncertainties in Section MF 34 MT 2 of ENDF/B-VIII.0 data are sometimes too large. Physical limitations of the bounds of mubar limit the maximum uncertainty to be < 1.0 and usually $\ll$ 1.0. Two ad hoc methods are proposed to artificially constrain the randomly sampled values of mubar to allowable values. The application of NJOY’s mubar covariance matrix to the “sandwich rule” is also discussed and a consistent way to apply sensitivity coefficients is described. Mubar uncertainties for the Jezebel k eff were found to be 156 pcm – a value comparable to other evaluated cross section uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Calibrated Sodium Data for Preliminary Validation of the SRT Code for Advanced Reactors

Various types of non-light water reactors are currently engaged in the U.S. licensing process. Because of inherent differences compared with well-established large light water reactors, appropriate assessment tools are needed. Specifically, source term analysis, which determines environmental dose impacts from potential accident scenarios, is a crucial part of design and licensing. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has emphasized the importance of mechanistic source term analysis for advanced reactor deployments. To align with these needs, Argonne National Laboratory has developed the Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) source term analysis code for metal fuel Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) and microreactors. SRT conducts time-dependent radionuclide transport and retention in SFRs for core and ex-core radionuclide source accident sequences. The main objective of SRT is to provide rapid sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, incorporating parametric uncertainties and summarizing probabilistic results. As part of the code validation process, a study focused on the bubble scrubbing module was performed using an experiment recently carried out by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Based on the analysis, the modeling approach in SRT provides accurate results for small and large aerosols, while slight underprediction of radionuclide aerosol removal are observed for medium sized aerosols. However, the deviation is minor, considering the highly uncertain phenomenon and range of results, and is in the conservative direction. In addition, uncertainty information derived from the experiments is further implemented, reflecting the actual span of parameters, which leads to enhanced agreement with code predictions. The results demonstrate that SRT provides reasonable predictions for the bubble scrubbing process in sodium pool.

Kam, Dong Hoon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Zr Nuclear Data Campaign: Measurement of (n,γ) cross section of 90,91 Zr [Abstract]

The isotopes of Zr with mass number A = [90; 91; 92; 94] make up more than 97% of naturally occurring Zr and are important to many nuclear applications due to their desirable mechanical and nuclear properties. For example, the zirconium alloys are used as cladding material in nuclear reactors. In addition to the mechanical properties, Zr-90 has a closed neutron shell, hence the capture cross sections of the zirconium isotopes are relatively small, such that they improve the neutron economy in reactors by preferentially scattering neutrons rather than absorbing them. This same quality also presents a challenge to measuring the capture cross section, σ γ (E), of Zr isotopes. For incident neutron energies < 0.1 MeV, the ENDF library reports a relative uncertainty of approximately 20% and uncertainty greater than 20% above this energy. This motivates the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to perform new neutron induced cross section measurements to accurately evaluate these four isotopes of Zr.

ENDF↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr NCSP ND-1 Task [Slides]

Luiz Leal's idea to integrate the experimental uncertainties, covariances, and sensitivities in the ND workflow and to centralize the process at one location created a cohesive tool for data testing. It has been practiced for more than two decades by the NCS and ND groups at ORNL. The development and use of the ORNL codes TSUNAMI and TSURFER within SCALE made it possible. Today, it has been extended to SAMINT, which enables the coupling of differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗