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At least 883 records · Page 49

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS)

The Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) provides an open-source, research-oriented collection of tools for analysing the resource adequacy of a bulk power system. The simulation methods offered support everything from classical convolution-based analytical techniques through to high-performance sequential Monte Carlo methods supporting multi-region composite reliability assessment, including simulation of energy-limited resources such as storage.

Stephen, Gord↗

Atomistic simulation methods for long-time dynamics in materials for nuclear energy systems

Many important processes in materials systems are intrinsically atomistic in nature but involve time scales that span many orders of magnitude, thus exceeding what can be directly simulated using molecular dynamics. This is especially true for materials in nuclear energy applications, in which defects created by collision cascades on the femtosecond-picosecond time scale cause microstructural changes that continue to evolve for years, in many cases leading to failure of the material. In this chapter, we review atomistic methods for reaching long time scales in systems like these. These accelerated molecular dynamics and adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo methods exploit the infrequent-event nature of the diffusive events that comprise this long-time evolution. In favorable cases, these methods can predict state-to-state evolution that approximates what would result from an extremely long molecular dynamics simulation, and the most accurate of the methods can do this to arbitrary accuracy. We present some examples of applications of these methods to problems relevant to nuclear energy materials, the subject of this volume. We then discuss situations that are difficult for the methods, causing them to be less efficient, and we conclude with a short list of the most pressing issues in the further development of these approaches to make them as powerful and predictive as possible for realistic problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

Modified Geometric Truncation of the Scattering Phase Function

Phase function of light scattering on large atmospheric particles has very strong peak in forward direction constituting a challenge for accurate numerical calculations of radiance required in remote sensing problems. Scaling transformation replaces original phase function with a sum of the delta function and a new regular smooth phase function. Geometric truncation is one of the ways to construct such a smooth function. The replacement phase function coincides with the original one outside the forward cone and preserves the asymmetry parameter. It has discontinuity at the cone. Another simple functional form of the replacement phase function within the cone is suggested. It enables continuity and allows for a number of modifications. Three of them are considered in this study: preserving asymmetry parameter, providing continuity of the 1st derivative of the phase function, and preserving mean scattering angle. Yet another problem addressed in this study is objective selection of the width of the forward cone. That angle affects truncation fraction and values of the phase function within the cone. A heuristic approach providing unambiguous criterion of selection of the truncation angle is proposed. The approach has easy numerical implementation. Suggested modifications were tested on cloud phase function using discrete ordinates and Monte Carlo methods. It was shown that the modifications provide better accuracy of the radiance computation compare to the original geometric truncation with discrete ordinates while continuous derivative approach provides significant gain in computer time with Monte Carlo simulations.

Alexander Radkevich↗

Computation of axisymmetric and ionized flows using particle and continuum methods

Comparisons between particle and continuum simulations of hypersonic near-continuum flows are presented. The particle approach employs the direct simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC), and the continuum approach solves the Euler equations. Both simulations have thermochemistry models for air implemented including ionization. A new axisymmetric DSMC code which is efficiently vectorized is developed for this study. In this DSMC code, particular attention is paid to matching the relaxation rates employed in the continuum approach. This investigation represents a continuation of a previous study which considered thermochemical relaxation in one-dimensional shock waves of nitrogen. Comparison of the particle and continuum methods is first made for an axisymmetric blunt-body flow of air at 7 km/s. Very good agreement is obtained for the two solutions. The two techniques also compare well for a one-dimensional shock wave in air at 10 km/s. In both applications, the results are found to be sensitive to various aspects of the chemistry models employed.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

Statistical methods for thermonuclear reaction rates and nucleosynthesis simulations

Rigorous statistical methods for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates and nucleosynthesis are becoming increasingly established in nuclear astrophysics. The main challenge being faced is that experimental reaction rates are highly complex quantities derived from a multitude of different measured nuclear parameters (e.g., astrophysical S-factors, resonance energies and strengths, particle and γ-ray partial widths). We discuss the application of the Monte Carlo method to two distinct, but related, questions. First, given a set of measured nuclear parameters, how can one best estimate the resulting ther- monuclear reaction rates and associated uncertainties? Second, given a set of appropriate reaction rates, how can one best estimate the abundances from nucleosynthesis (i.e., reaction network) calculations? The techniques described here provide probability density functions that can be used to derive statisti- cally meaningful reaction rates and final abundances for any desired coverage probability. Examples are given for applications to s-process neutron sources, core-collapse supernovae, classical novae, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of shock structure solutions using independent continuum and kinetic theory approaches

A vehicle traversing the atmosphere will experience flight regimes at high altitudes in which the thickness of a hypersonic shock wave is not small compared to the shock standoff distance from the hard body. When this occurs, it is essential to compute accurate flow field solutions within the shock structure. In this paper, one-dimensional shock structure is investigated for various monatomic gases from Mach 1.4 to Mach 35. Kinetic theory solutions are computed using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. Steady-state solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations and of a slightly truncated form of the Burnett equations are determined by relaxation to a steady state of the time-dependent continuum equations. Monte Carlo results are in excellent agreement with published experimental data and are used as bases of comparison for continuum solutions. For a Maxwellian gas, the truncated Burnett equations are shown to produce far more accurate solutions of shock structure than the Navier-Stokes equations.

Fiscko, Kurt A.↗

Uncertainty Analysis of NASA Glenn's 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

An analysis was performed to determine the measurement uncertainty of the Mach Number of the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This paper details the analysis process used, including methods for handling limited data and complicated data correlations. Due to the complexity of the equations used, a Monte Carlo Method was utilized for this uncertainty analysis. A summary of the findings are presented as pertains to understanding what the uncertainties are, how they impact various research tests in the facility, and methods of reducing the uncertainties in the future.

uncertainty↗

Low-energy enhancement of the magnetic dipole radiation in odd-mass lanthanides

We compute the magnetic dipole (M1) $\gamma$-ray strength functions ($\gamma$SF) for the odd-mass lanthanides $^{\textrm{143-151}}$Nd and $^{\textrm{147-153}}$Sm using the shell-model Monte Carlo method in combination with the static-path approximation and the maximum-entropy method. In particular, we quantify the statistical uncertainties in the calculated M1 $\gamma$SFs and show that they are under control for the excitation energies relevant to the experiments despite a Monte Carlo sign problem that originates in the projection onto an odd number of neutrons. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the M1 $\gamma$SFs of these odd-mass lanthanides, which was recently observed experimentally in some of them. We also find a scissors mode resonance (SR) in the strongly deformed isotopes. We observe that the decrease in the LEE strength with neutron number along an isotopic chain is compensated for by an increase in the SR strength in the deformed nuclei. Furthermore, we compare our results with recent experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

CASM — A software package for first-principles based study of multicomponent crystalline solids

CASM is a software package that enables first-principles based studies of crystalline materials. It has been designed to treat coupled chemical, mechanical, vibrational, and magnetic degrees of freedom to determine ground state and finite temperature properties of crystals. The symmetry of the underlying parent crystal structure is used to enumerate perturbations of the parent crystal structure and generate derivative structures which can be input to first-principles calculations in order to explore the ground state energy landscape. CASM algorithmically constructs cluster expansions that fully couple discrete and continuous degrees of freedom, and generates highly efficient code to evaluate the cluster expansion basis functions. Widely used machine learning methods are integrated for fitting expansion coefficients to first-principle calculations. The fully parameterized cluster expansions can be combined with (kinetic) Monte Carlo methods to calculate finite temperature thermodynamic and kinetic properties. CASM Alloy Manager identifies distinct parent crystal structures in an alloy system, creating individual projects for each, and integrating the results. The integrated infrastructure facilitates the linkage between first-principles statistical mechanics predictions with higher length scale computational methods, such as phase field simulations. In conclusion, CASM projects are designed to be easy to share in repositories, to re-use, and to extend to include additional chemical species or types of degrees of freedom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Diffusion of point defects in crystalline silicon using the kinetic activation-relaxation technique method

We study point-defect diffusion in crystalline silicon using the kinetic activation-relaxation technique (k-ART), an off-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo method with on-the-fly catalog building capabilities based on the activation-relaxation technique (ART nouveau), coupled to the standard Stillinger-Weber potential. We focus more particularly on the evolution of crystalline cells with one to four vacancies and one to four interstitials in order to provide a detailed picture of both the atomistic diffusion mechanisms and overall kinetics. We show formation energies, activation barriers for the ground state of all eight systems, and migration barriers for those systems that diffuse. Additionally, we characterize diffusion paths and special configurations such as dumbbell complex, di-interstitial (IV-pair+2I) superdiffuser, tetrahedral vacancy complex, and more. In conclusion, this study points to an unsuspected dynamical richness even for this apparently simple system that can only be uncovered by exhaustive and systematic approaches such as the kinetic activation-relaxation technique.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nuclear Deformation at Finite Temperature

Deformation, a key concept in our understanding of heavy nuclei, is based on a mean-field description that breaks the rotational invariance of the nuclear many-body Hamiltonian. Here, we present a method to analyze nuclear deformations at finite temperature in a framework that preserves rotational invariance. The auxiliary-field Monte-Carlo method is used to generate the statistical ensemble and calculate the probability distribution associated with the quadrupole operator. Applying the technique to nuclei in the rare-earth region, we identify model-independent signatures of deformation and find that deformation effects persist to higher temperatures than the spherical-to-deformed shape phase-transition temperature of mean-field theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A method of improving sensitivity of carbon/oxygen well logging for low porosity formation

Carbon/Oxygen (C/O) spectral logging technique has been widely used to determine residual oil saturation and the evaluation of water flooded layer. In order to improve the sensitivity of the technique for low – porosity formation, Gaussian and linear models are applied to fit the peaks of measured spectra to obtain the characteristic coefficients. Standard spectra of carbon and oxygen are combined to establish a new carbon /oxygen value calculation method, and the robustness of the new method is cross – validated with known mixed gamma ray spectrum. Formation models for different porosities and saturations are built using Monte Carlo method. The responses of carbon/oxygen which are calculated by conventional energy window method, and the new method is applied to oil saturation under low porosity conditions. The results show the new method can reduce the effects of gamma rays contaminated by the interaction between neutrons and other elements on carbon/oxygen ratio, and therefore can significantly improve the response sensitivity of carbon/oxygen well logging to oil saturation. The new method improves greatly carbon/oxygen well logging in low porosity conditions.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Bipropellant engine plume analyses for the Mars Observer scientific spacecraft

This paper discusses the methodology utilized to characterize exhaust plume expansion of the 490 N bipropellant engine and provides an analysis of exhaust plune impingement effects on the Mars Observer oxidizer tank structure. Nozzle and plume continuum flowfields are computed with a method of characteristics solution while transitional and rarefied regions of the exhaust gas flow were defined by a direct simulation Monte Carlo method. Results of this study provide sufficient data for an assessment of spacecraft thermal impacts due to plume heating effects and thrust losses from exhaust plume impingement.

Rattenni, L., Jr.↗

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion

The goal of this project is to develop statistical methods and tools that can be used to rigorously calculate achieved DPs on individual material strata and then aggregate these to the facility and state levels. In particular, this project is evaluating the utility of stochastic ("Monte Carlo") methods as a potentially more powerful and flexible option to the analytical solutions traditionally employed by IAEA statisticians.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A hybrid Monte Carlo, discontinuous Galerkin method for linear kinetic transport equations

Here we present a hybrid method for time-dependent particle transport problems that combines Monte Carlo (MC) estimation with deterministic solutions based on discrete ordinates. For spatial discretizations, the MC algorithm computes a piecewise constant solution and the discrete ordinates use bilinear discontinuous finite elements. From the hybridization of the problem, the resulting problem solved by Monte Carlo is scattering free, resulting in a simple, efficient solution procedure. Between time steps, we use a projection approach to “relabel” collided particles as uncollided particles. In conclusion, from a series of standard 2-D Cartesian test problems we observe that our hybrid method has improved accuracy and reduction in computational complexity of approximately an order of magnitude relative to standard discrete ordinates solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗