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NASA NTRS2004

Survey of Technologies Relevant to Defense From Near-Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This Technical Publication reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are given of a Marshall Space Right Center-led study intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. Details of analytical tools, trajectory tools, and a tool that was created to model both the undeflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection path are given. A representative selection of these possible options was modeled and evaluated. It is hoped that this study will raise the level of attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Adams, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Development of procedures for calculating stiffness and damping properties of elastomers in engineering applications. Part 1: Verification of basic methods

The primary aim of this investigation was verification of basic methods which are to be used in cataloging elastomer dynamic properties (stiffness and damping) in terms of viscoelastic model constants. These constants may then be used to predict dynamic properties for general elastomer shapes and operating conditions, thereby permitting optimum application of elastomers as energy absorption and/or energy storage devices in the control of vibrations in a broad variety of applications. The efforts reported involved: (1) literature search; (2) the design, fabrication and use of a test rig for obtaining elastomer dynamic test data over a wide range of frequencies, amplitudes, and preloads; and (3) the reduction of the test data, by means of a selected three-element elastomer model and specialized curve fitting techniques, to material properties. Material constants thus obtained have been used to calculate stiffness and damping for comparison with measured test data. These comparisons are excellent for a number of test conditions and only fair to poor for others. The results confirm the validity of the basic approach of the overall program and the mechanics of the cataloging procedure, and at the same time suggest areas in which refinements should be made.

Chiang, T.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Small-scale test program to develop a more efficient swivel nozzle thrust deflector for V/STOL lift/cruise engines

The installed performance degradation of a swivel nozzle thrust deflector system obtained during increased vectoring angles of a large-scale test program was investigated and improved. Small-scale models were used to generate performance data for analyzing selected swivel nozzle configurations. A single-swivel nozzle design model with five different nozzle configurations and a twin-swivel nozzle design model, scaled to 0.15 size of the large-scale test hardware, were statically tested at low exhaust pressure ratios of 1.4, 1.3, 1.2, and 1.1 and vectored at four nozzle positions from 0 deg cruise through 90 deg vertical used for the VTOL mode.

Schlundt, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Structural analysis demonstration of constitutive and life models

The overall objective of this program is to demonstrate the applicability of NASA-developed advanced constitutive and life damage models for calculating cyclic structural response and crack initiation in selected components of reusable space propulsion systems. The computer model resulting from this program will enable the user to produce an accurate life prediction of hot gas path, life limiting components of propulsion systems such as the space shuttle main engine (SSME). Previously developed computer models addressing constitutive modeling and life damage will be combined in an advanced finite element analysis to generate a sophisticated baseline life prediction program. A material data base will be established for the constitutive and life models parametrically involving temperature, strain range, strain rate, mean strain/stress, and dwell time. The verified computer program will be used to accomplish the life predictions of three SSME critical components as evidence of the model functionality.

Bechtel, G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling Aircraft Wing Loads from Flight Data Using Neural Networks

Neural networks were used to model wing bending-moment loads, torsion loads, and control surface hinge-moments of the Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft. Accurate loads models are required for the development of control laws designed to increase roll performance through wing twist while not exceeding load limits. Inputs to the model include aircraft rates, accelerations, and control surface positions. Neural networks were chosen to model aircraft loads because they can account for uncharacterized nonlinear effects while retaining the capability to generalize. The accuracy of the neural network models was improved by first developing linear loads models to use as starting points for network training. Neural networks were then trained with flight data for rolls, loaded reversals, wind-up-turns, and individual control surface doublets for load excitation. Generalization was improved by using gain weighting and early stopping. Results are presented for neural network loads models of four wing loads and four control surface hinge moments at Mach 0.90 and an altitude of 15,000 ft. An average model prediction error reduction of 18.6 percent was calculated for the neural network models when compared to the linear models. This paper documents the input data conditioning, input parameter selection, structure, training, and validation of the neural network models.

Allen, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Comparison of Two IRI plasmasphere Extensions with GPS-TEC Observations

Comparisons of two model results with Global Positioning System GPS-TEC measurements have been carried out for different latitudinal, solar activity, magnetic activity, diurnal and seasonal conditions. The models evaluated are the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM-2000) and the IRI extension with Russian plasmasphere model (IRI*).Data of 23 observatories providing GPS-TEC and ionosonde data have been used. It is shown that IRI* plasmasphere electron density is greater than GCPM results by an order of magnitude at 6370 km altitude (one Earth's radius) with this excess growing to 2-3 orders of magnitude towards the GPS satellite altitude of 20000 km. Another source of model and GPS-TEC differences is a way of selection of the F2 layer peak parameters driving the models either with ITU-R (former CCIR) maps or ionosonde observations. Plasmasphere amendment to IRI improves accuracy of TEC model predictions because the plasmasphere contribution to the total TEC varies from 10% by daytime under quiet magnetic conditions to more than 50% by night under stormy conditions.

Gulyaeva, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗

NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗

NASA NTRS1990

Filament winding cylinders. III - Selection of the process variables

By using the Lee-Springer filament winding model temperatures, degrees of cure, viscosities, stresses, strains, fiber tensions, fiber motions, and void diameters were calculated in graphite-epoxy composite cylinders during the winding and subsequent curing. The results demonstrate the type of information which can be generated by the model. It is shown, in reference to these results, how the model, and the corresponding WINDTHICK code, can be used to select the appropriate process variables.

Lee, Soo-Yong↗

NASA NTRS2023

Efficient Calibration of Expensive Computational Models

Accounting for uncertainty when calibrating expensive computational models is a common challenge faced by scientists and engineers. Often Bayesian techniques are adopted to estimate a probability density function over the model parameters given noisy empirical data. The methods used to perform this type of probabilistic calibration are computationally prohibitive in that they require a large number of evaluations of the expensive model. In these cases, surrogate modeling -- that is, using a fast-to-evaluate, lower fidelity stand-in for the original computational model -- may be the only option to alleviate this computational burden. However, the upfront cost of generating training data to build a surrogate model can itself be expensive. As such, it is important to be judicious when selecting training points at which the full-fidelity model is evaluated. Here, an active learning approach is proposed that enables efficient selection of training points using approximate samples of the calibrated parameter probability density function. In this way, the training points can be concentrated in regions where the calibration algorithm requires high model accuracy.

active learning↗

NASA NTRS2000

Constituent-Based Life Models Being Developed for SiC/SiC Composites

For the successful utilization of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) as hot-section components in advanced aeropropulsion engines, the CMC constituents will need to be tailored and optimized to meet all the critical property demands of each component. Under the High-Speed Research (HSR) and Advanced High-Temperature Engine Materials Technology (HITEMP) Programs, the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field initiated research to develop mechanistic models for key CMC thermostructural properties. These models would describe the effects of different constituent factors (composition, geometry, and volume fraction) and of potential application conditions (stress, time, temperature, and environment) on these properties. Particular focus was placed on both analytical and numerical modeling of state-of-the-art SiC/SiC composites where the primary load-bearing constituents are stoichiometric SiC fibers in a complex multiphase SiC matrix produced by chemical vapor infiltration and melt infiltration. Recent studies have resulted in computer-based numerical models for the elastic modulus, thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity properties of the SiC/SiC system. Additional studies have generated analytical and empirical models for the time dependence of composite rupture strength at temperatures above 2200 F (1200 C), where CMC's have an important thermostructural advantage over current nickel-based superalloys. These life models utilize thermal activation theory and fiber stress-rupture results measured at Glenn to generate Larson-Miller (L M) plots of fiber rupture strength versus q, a single time- and temperature-dependent parameter. Assuming a worse case in which the SiC matrix is cracked, rupture is then controlled by the time-dependent fracture characteristics of the fiber bundles bridging the matrix cracks. With this as the controlling mechanism, one can then use simple composite theory and the fiber L M plots to predict CMC rupture strength versus the q parameter. The dashed line shows the predicted rupture strength of a SiC/SiC composite that is reinforced by a state-of-the-art stoichiometric SiC fiber. For the q parameter, time is in hours and temperature in degrees kelvin. To generate these predictions, a two-dimensional 0 /90 composite with approximately 16 percent fiber in the applied stress direction and an air test environment were assumed. As such, it is possible to compare the model predictions against limited stress-rupture data for this CMC as shown by the data points. The good agreement confirms the rupture model at least for the selected CMC and test conditions. Thus for this particular SiC/SiC composite, one can estimate a 1000-hr rupture strength of approximately 12 ksi at 2400 F (T = 1588 K and q = 39 700 K). At lower CMC application stresses, the SiC matrix is typically uncracked, so both the fiber and matrix constituents share the composite load. In this case, CMC rupture is controlled by the constituent with the longest rupture time based on the creep rate of the composite. Measured Monkman-Grant plots of rupture time versus creep rate for the two SiC constituents have been used to develop CMC life models for this important application condition. NASA and DOD are currently using this information to establish application and material goals for more advanced CMC's that can be used at even higher temperatures.

DiCarlo, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A preliminary harmonic spline model from Magsat data

A preliminary main field model for 1980 derived from a carefully selected subset of Magsat vector measurements, using the method of harmonic splines, is presented. This model (PHS /80/) for preliminary harmonic splines is the smoothest model (in the sense that the rms radial field at the core surface is minimum) consistent with the measurements (with an rms misfit of 10 nT to account for crustal and external fields as well as noise in the measurement procedure). Therefore PHS (80) is more suitable for studies of the core than models derived with the traditional least squares approach (e.g., GSFC /9/80/). A comparison is conducted of the characteristics of the harmonic spline spectrum, topology of the core field and especially the null-flux curves (loci where the radial field is zero) and the flux through patches bounded by such curves. PHS (80) is less complex than GSFC (9/80) and is therefore more representative of that part of the core field that the data constrain.

Shure, L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Improved Monte Carlo turbulence simulation for Shuttle reentry studies

A turbulence model for Space Shuttle reentry simulation is presented, which may be used to improve redline selection. It is suggested that the turbulence model in current use is overly conservative because it assumes severe turbulence from reentry altitude to the earth's surface. Two improved versions of the turbulence simulation equations are presented. These are third and fifth order approximations to the von Karman spectrum. The equations are in a form suitable for digital simulation. Both sets of equations can be used to generate a probability distribution of fuel remaining at landing.

Campbell, C. Warren↗

NASA NTRS1999

Benefit Estimates of Terminal Area Productivity Program Technologies

This report documents benefit analyses for the NASA Terminal Area Technology (TAP) technology programs. Benefits are based on reductions in arrival delays at ten major airports over the 10 years from 2006 through 2015. Detailed analytic airport capacity and delay models were constructed to produce the estimates. The goal of TAP is enable good weather operations tempos in all weather conditions. The TAP program includes technologies to measure and predict runway occupancy times, reduce runway occupancy times in bad weather, accurately predict wake vortex hazards, and couple controller automation with aircraft flight management systems. The report presents and discusses the estimate results and describes the models. Three appendixes document the model algorithms and discuss the input parameters selected for the TAP technologies. The fourth appendix is the user's guide for the models. The results indicate that the combined benefits for all TAP technologies at all 10 airports range from $550 to $650 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). Additional benefits will accrue from reductions in departure delays. Departure delay benefits are calculated by the current models.

Hemm, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1976

Investigation of lightweight designs and materials for LO2 and LH2 propellant tanks for space vehicles, phase 2 and phase 3

Full size Tug LO2 and LH2 tank configurations were defined, based on selected tank geometries. These configurations were then locally modeled for computer stress analysis. A large subscale test tank, representing the selected Tug LO2 tank, was designed and analyzed. This tank was fabricated using procedures which represented production operations. An evaluation test program was outlined and a test procedure defined. The necessary test hardware was also fabricated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1992

A demonstration of an intelligent control system for a reusable rocket engine

An Intelligent Control System for reusable rocket engines is under development at NASA Lewis Research Center. The primary objective is to extend the useful life of a reusable rocket propulsion system while minimizing between flight maintenance and maximizing engine life and performance through improved control and monitoring algorithms and additional sensing and actuation. This paper describes current progress towards proof-of-concept of an Intelligent Control System for the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A subset of identifiable and accommodatable engine failure modes is selected for preliminary demonstration. Failure models are developed retaining only first order effects and included in a simplified nonlinear simulation of the rocket engine for analysis under closed loop control. The engine level coordinator acts as an interface between the diagnostic and control systems, and translates thrust and mixture ratio commands dictated by mission requirements, and engine status (health) into engine operational strategies carried out by a multivariable control. Control reconfiguration achieves fault tolerance if the nominal (healthy engine) control cannot. Each of the aforementioned functionalities is discussed in the context of an example to illustrate the operation of the system in the context of a representative failure. A graphical user interface allows the researcher to monitor the Intelligent Control System and engine performance under various failure modes selected for demonstration.

Musgrave, Jeffrey L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Thermal Design for Extra-Terrestrial Regenerative Fuel Cell System

The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) Project is investigating different power systems for various lunar and Martian mission concepts. The AMPS Fuel Cell (FC) team has created two system-level models to evaluate the performance of regenerative fuel cell (RFC) systems employing different fuel cell chemistries. Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells PEMFCs contain a polymer electrolyte membrane that separates the hydrogen and oxygen cavities and conducts hydrogen cations (protons) across the cell. Solid Oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) operate at high temperatures, using a zirconia-based solid ceramic electrolyte to conduct oxygen anions across the cell. The purpose of the modeling effort is to down select one fuel cell chemistry for a more detailed design effort. Figures of merit include the system mass, volume, round trip efficiency, and electrolyzer charge power required. PEMFCs operate at around 60 C versus SOFCs which operate at temperatures greater than 700 C. Due to the drastically different operating temperatures of the two chemistries the thermal control systems (TCS) differ. The PEM TCS is less complex and is characterized by a single pump cooling loop that uses deionized water coolant and rejects heat generated by the system to the environment via a radiator. The solid oxide TCS has its own unique challenges including the requirement to reject high quality heat and to condense the steam produced in the reaction. This paper discusses the modeling of thermal control systems for an extraterrestrial RFC that utilizes either a PEM or solid oxide fuel cell.

thermal modeling↗

NASA NTRS2013

Parametric Thermal Soak Model for Earth Entry Vehicles

The analysis and design of an Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is multidisciplinary in nature, requiring the application many disciplines. An integrated tool called Multi Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry Descent and Landing or M-SAPE is being developed as part of Entry Vehicle Technology project under In-Space Technology program. Integration of a multidisciplinary problem is a challenging task. Automation of the execution process and data transfer among disciplines can be accomplished to provide significant benefits. Thermal soak analysis and temperature predictions of various interior components of entry vehicle, including the impact foam and payload container are part of the solution that M-SAPE will offer to spacecraft designers. The present paper focuses on the thermal soak analysis of an entry vehicle design based on the Mars Sample Return entry vehicle geometry and discusses a technical approach to develop parametric models for thermal soak analysis that will be integrated into M-SAPE. One of the main objectives is to be able to identify the important parameters and to develop correlation coefficients so that, for a given trajectory, can estimate the peak payload temperature based on relevant trajectory parameters and vehicle geometry. The models are being developed for two primary thermal protection (TPS) materials: 1) carbon phenolic that was used for Galileo and Pioneer Venus probes and, 2) Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), TPS material for Mars Science Lab mission. Several representative trajectories were selected from a very large trade space to include in the thermal analysis in order to develop an effective parametric thermal soak model. The selected trajectories covered a wide range of heatload and heatflux combinations. Non-linear, fully transient, thermal finite element simulations were performed for the selected trajectories to generate the temperature histories at the interior of the vehicle. Figure 1 shows the finite element model that was used for the simulations. The results indicate that it takes several hours for the thermal energy to soak into the interior of the vehicle and achieve maximum payload temperatures. In addition, a strong correlation between the heatload and peak payload container temperature is observed that will help establishing the parametric thermal soak model.

Agrawal, Parul↗